Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Magnagarde]

Honestly even IF Ukraine were to give up Donbas, Crimea and a land bridge between the two (Not something I want happen in the slightest) the nation will likely be stronger in 4-5 years than it was pre-war. The west is going to flood Ukraine with money, expertise, businesses, charities, the lot that it will be Marshall plan 2.0 in there. Sure no military will be involved, but if there's little corruption it would be a European South Korea with Russia being the European North Korea.

The problem however is that this East European South Korea wouldn't have a military superpower on its ground to protect it. In other words, it would be another two decades of economic progress that are highly susceptible to being bombed back to 2022 and beyond.

The Marshall plan worked because West Germany and large parts of West Europe had a clear economical and military compass and allignment.

[Gaidax]

The situation in Armenia, in the Balkans(Bosnia and to a lesser extent Montenegro and Macedonia) and many others are prime examples of why frozen conflicts don't work, especially in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, given the amount of mythomania that necessarily comes with the various territorial claims by the people living there. Without an ultimate victor and/or without a "military bloc retailoring" of the Ukrainian borders, any sort of peace deal will, figuratively, represent the cleaning and reloading of a gun in order to get ready for the next showdown. Ukrainian neutrality would play a huge part in this problem should they accept it, given that any and all guarantees given to Ukraine as a neutral state mean absolutely nothing in the long run. This is especially true due to the potential of future free interpretations of the situation on the ground.

The destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, coupled with the mass-emmigration that has happened and that is surely to follow, have set Ukraine back significantly. A frozen conflict would mean wasting another decade or two in the near future. Russia on the other hand probably counts on the emmigration of disagreeable elements from Russia, making the existing structure's hold on power somewhat stronger.

You think Ukrainian delegation not aware? Or like anyone has any illusions that the whole thing will hold for more than at most few years?

But the thing is - Ukraine needs this time out exactly because of what you stated - the destruction, the refugee crisis and the death.

Yes, everyone will immediately get back to cleaning their guns and fixing their shit in preparation for the next attempt, but in such a case time in on Ukraine's side both because of sanctions and because West will now take it more seriously and thus give it more aid and weaponry - which was one of the issues, everyone including me assumed Ukraine will get stomped into dust and they surprised everyone. West will learn the lesson and strengthen it appropriately.

Then as far as cleaning weapons goes - Russia certainly has a lot more to clean there, the whole invasion revealed almost comical levels of incompetence in Russian military and intelligence agencies and it will take many years to fix it, even if they manage to do it with their ludicrous corruption culture.

[Fugus]

As someone who mods and also has been part of the administration team, having access to IP addresses is normally only something that is accessible to those at the very very high end of staff. Like Global/Super Mods and admins only. Not normal mods. I wouldn't be surprised if it is the same here.

Understood, I am mainly wondering how far these people have to push this shit before the moderation has the authority and tools to actually address it.

And @Easo , I know about VPNs, I am using one. I also know that most people troll don't typically bother with such things, and even the professional ones would still start showing a theme when all the obvious trolls and stooges all start showing up from behind a VPN.

Just sad watching the site continually decline because the moderators aren't allowed to actually moderate. Especially after having to endure Thwart who went out of his way to NOT moderate and intentionally screw stuff up only to have him allowed to stay here and fuck up for WAY too long. Moderators aren't allowed to moderate but a rogue moderator with a modicum of power was allowed to screw up for months on end and get away with it.

[Zaydin]

Then as far as cleaning weapons goes - Russia certainly has a lot more to clean there, the whole invasion revealed almost comical levels of incompetence in Russian military and intelligence agencies and it will take many years to fix it, even if they manage to do it with their ludicrous corruption culture.

The Russian military is also heavily reliant on foreign imports for components. Imports it is no longer receiving. Add that to the fact that one of their last major tank factories is on the verge of shuttering due to lack of parts.... Russia is f@$ked long term. Sanctions on Russia won't be lifted just because the shooting stops.

[Mikah]

*eyeroll* Yes, nuclear threats are especially being laughed at. MiG "deal" certainly showed that. Oh, wait...

Not a single warhead was lost (ask West) when USSR fell and the 90ties happened in Russia, nothing is gonna be lost now.

Seriously, people, stereotypes and Twitter videos are making you not think straight before posting.

Lol, you can't make claims so outrageous and still think people will believe you.

That's not stereotypes and twitter videos. That's coming from your own Russian medias and political opponents.

But you see, that's the whole point. Regardless of whether it is true or not, the propaganda is not working anymore. Everyone, including Russia's leaders, thought they would crush Ukraine in 48 hours. And yet, a month later, not only did it not work, but it showed everyone how bad the army truely is. They completely lost credibility.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Not sure you can call that winning either. How many years before Ukraine will get back to where it was ?

Probably less than it will take for Russia. The international community will be helping Ukraine rebuild... Russia gets to enjoy shit sandwiches.

[PhaelixWW]

Probably less than it will take for Russia. The international community will be helping Ukraine rebuild... Russia gets to enjoy shit sandwiches.

And, realistically, rebuild with Western tools, Western parts, etc.

Instead of operating on top of the old Soviet system, the rebuilt system will be largely Western from the ground up. And not because the West is trying to expand, but because Putin decided to tear Ukraine down.

Pretty much exactly what Putin was fearing.

[Easo]

People talking about rebuilding - do not forget that Donbas, which is likely to NOT be in hands of Ukraine contains a good part of their industrial base and their resources - even the parts of the regions which Ukraine only held partially, Mariupol's Azovstal steel works as the prime example.

Take a realistic approach - Ukraine will get help in rebuilding in various shapes and forms, from cash to construction materials to expert crews, but it won't be enough to cover all damage done.


This war is sometimes ironic:

Lol, you can't make claims so outrageous and still think people will believe you.

That's not stereotypes and twitter videos. That's coming from your own Russian medias and political opponents.

But you see, that's the whole point. Regardless of whether it is true or not, the propaganda is not working anymore. Everyone, including Russia's leaders, thought they would crush Ukraine in 48 hours. And yet, a month later, not only did it not work, but it showed everyone how bad the army truely is. They completely lost credibility.

Well, if you wanna believe that Russia/USSR has/might have lost nukes, then be my guest.

[P for Pancetta]

An ammo depot in Belgorod a Russian city close to the Ukrainian border just went up in flames with a lot of explosions. So far little is known about what caused it. Some claim Ukrainian artillery hit the depot. Could also be sabotage or just an accident.

[Kallisto]

People talking about rebuilding - do not forget that Donbas, which is likely to NOT be in hands of Ukraine contains a good part of their industrial base and their resources - even the parts of the regions which Ukraine only held partially, Mariupol's Azovstal steel works as the prime example.

Industry can be moved. The Soviets proved that in WW2 when it basically moved their entire industry to the Urals and beyond, or when they stripped eastern European industry to rebuild after WW2.

All the industry in the east can be moved to the west of the Dniper if need be. It also just won't be the west looking to rebuild, but also India and China looking at a new market. Nobody is saying it will be easy, but having "friends" after a war vs having no friends after a war even if the one with friends took the beating is going to be in a nicer position post war.

Oh and don't get me wrong, no one is going to rebuild Ukraine out of the goodness of their hearts (talking about state-level, charities not included). But because a friendly Ukraine, buys from the west, keeps a near peer down and Isolated. Also is a strong buffer between NATO/EU and Moscow.

[PhaelixWW]

Also is a strong buffer between NATO/EU and Moscow.

And one that the EU knows has real incentive to fight back against further Moscow aggression, now, too.

This is the blueprint for an isolated Russia, and of their own accord.

[Easo]

Industry can be moved. The Soviets proved that in WW2 when it basically moved their entire industry to the Urals and beyond, or when they stripped eastern European industry to rebuild after WW2.

All the industry in the east can be moved to the west of the Dniper if need be. It also just won't be the west looking to rebuild, but also India and China looking at a new market. Nobody is saying it will be easy, but having "friends" after a war vs having no friends after a war even if the one with friends took the beating is going to be in a nicer position post war.

Oh and don't get me wrong, no one is going to rebuild Ukraine out of the goodness of their hearts (talking about state-level, charities not included). But because a friendly Ukraine, buys from the west, keeps a near peer down and Isolated. Also is a strong buffer between NATO/EU and Moscow.

Let's specify - not move industry, but build new one from the ground up. Because no one is moving anything out of Russian controlled territory (though in case of Azovstal - seems like the only thing rebels are going to get are ruins, factory seems to be fucked already and it will be worse when battles there will finish. The production lines were properly stopped when war started but that matters little if forges are later bombed - so good luck with that, "DNR").

As for the rest - I hope you are right, yeah, it won't be absolutely free help, but it is something Ukraine at least will have in the immediate future - plus agriculture overall should be fineish still.

P.S.
The destroyed military industry is irreplaceable, that is something I am not going to concede any ground on, though. Likely means Ukraine will have more Western equipment, with all that entails.

[PhaelixWW]

P.S.
The destroyed military industry is irreplaceable, that is something I am not going to concede any ground on, though. Likely means Ukraine will have more Western equipment, with all that entails.

To their benefit, probably.

[Zaydin]

An ammo depot in Belgorod a Russian city close to the Ukrainian border just went up in flames with a lot of explosions. So far little is known about what caused it. Some claim Ukrainian artillery hit the depot. Could also be sabotage or just an accident.

Gonna be a huge blow to Russias collective pride if Ukraine finally managed to strike back at Russia itself. Doubly so for Putin if it was an ammo depot given how badly supplied his troops are.

[Iphie]

An ammo depot in Belgorod a Russian city close to the Ukrainian border just went up in flames with a lot of explosions. So far little is known about what caused it. Some claim Ukrainian artillery hit the depot. Could also be sabotage or just an accident.

According to the Finnish news it was in a small village, Krasnyi Oktyabr, near the Ukranian border and the local governor said there were no injuries or deaths so yeah. We'll see I guess.

edit: Reuters now says 4 were injured and that it was a temporary military camp.

Gonna be a huge blow to Russias collective pride if Ukraine finally managed to strike back at Russia itself. Doubly so for Putin if it was an ammo depot given how badly supplied his troops are.

Didn't the Ukrainians hit Rostov early on already?

[Polyxo]

Yeah I know, but you know the reason is cos the perceived threat of Russian military was - as we now know - vastly overrated. Still, having the F-35 ain't bad at all, I think it's a good tool, even if the scope is not as big as the Pentagon clearly would like it to be. But we're all very clear that you don't need an F-35 to negate a fleet of Flankers or... *chuckle* that fabled new SU-35, whatever the fuck that abomination is supposed to achieve.

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It'd also casually violate all kinds of privacy rights... I'd slap this forum with a complaint just for funsies if they ever pulled a stunt like that.

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There's neo-nazis in every country.

That's true. I more mean that it's a pretty common, prevalent thing in eastern Europe, at least for the time being. There's a lot of far-right political resurgence all over eastern Europe, and they're pretty publicly supported (and often welcome that support) from neo-Nazi groups.

[Zaydin]

According to the Finnish news it was in a small village, Krasnyi Oktyabr, near the Ukranian border and the local governor said there were no injuries or deaths so yeah. We'll see I guess.




Didn't the Ukrainians hit Rostov early on already?

Do you really think Russia would willingly admit that Ukraine managed to strike inside Russia and blow up an ammo depot the Russians likely really couldn't afford to lose?

And no idea. Hadn't heard much about it at the time or since.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Honestly even IF Ukraine were to give up Donbas, Crimea and a land bridge between the two (Not something I want happen in the slightest) the nation will likely be stronger in 4-5 years than it was pre-war. The west is going to flood Ukraine with money, expertise, businesses, charities, the lot that it will be Marshall plan 2.0 in there. Sure no military will be involved, but if there's little corruption it would be a European South Korea with Russia being the European North Korea.

Whats more likely is that Ukrainians will enter the EU, but not Ukraine. AFAIK a few millions had already done so during the past 8 years. Maybe they'll compensate a bit the demographic hemoraege that Eastern and Southern Europe has been seeing and which is to accelerate in the coming decades, or they'll simply head directly for that ageing Western Europe like so many.

South Korea was a brutal dictatorship showered in US cash with a youthful exploding population. While Ukraine might get the 2 former, it definitely won't have the latter.

[Iphie]

Do you really think Russia would willingly admit that Ukraine managed to strike inside Russia and blow up an ammo depot the Russians likely really couldn't afford to lose?

And no idea. Hadn't heard much about it at the time or since.

Well, it's about 5-8 km inside the border so it could be hit I guess. I guess a ammo depot/temporary army base is a valid target though?

As for admitting? Yeah they would, if it served their purposes.

[Huehuecoyotl]

For the billionth time for the people with troubles understanding plain English (even if not from a natural speaker) - I am all for a realistic view on the situation, not Twitter video feeds of tractors dragging tanks (hyped people seem unable to even notice the considerable reduction of such videos for more than two weeks now). And the realistic situation is that Ukraine is not winning, but slowly loosing. I guess fuck all the fuel silos, ammo dumps, etc. Ukraine has no need for such things to push the moskaljs back into Crimea!

Ah, so you do have a sense of humour. "I am all for a realistic view". Very funny.

Oh wait, you were being serious, weren't you? That's what you still want to pretend to be? When you've been called out multiple times, by multiple posters, for your wildly scewed requirements for "proof" depending on whether it's pro or anti Russia?

You are fooling literally nobody on this thread. Regardless of what nationality you claim, you posts mark you out as wildly biased towards Russia. Which means if you did try to make any sensible points regarding this war, the chances are they'll be ignored. Because we know what kind of poster you are, and we know the chances of anything useful coming out of your posts is slim.

At this stage, I honestly don't see the point of you continuing to post. Your pretence of trying to educate is laughable.