Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

If I sound like a broken record, it's because that's the only card Russia has and been threatening to get everything they want since 2022 started. Right now, people are laughing their asses off at the incompetence of their military forces and overlooking this fact.

Nobody's "overlooking" anything, Russia hasn't been "threatening" to nuke anyone, and it's not "the only card that Russia has".

And while people are laughing at the relative ineptitude of the Russian military, only an idiot would think that they're harmless. Just ask any of the thousands of Ukraine's civilians who have been killed.

Oh, wait, you can't.

I mean, we're literally seeing daily war crimes, and you're blathering on with "Hay gais, nooks r all rushya has! wen r teh nooks?"

Nah, kid.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Ok, why do you think Zelensky got rid of those two top generals? What is the meaning of it?

That if he just wanted to fire them for not agreeing with him... he could do so without calling them traitors.

[PC2]

That if he just wanted to fire them for not agreeing with him... he could do so without calling them traitors.

Do you think they were traitors the whole time and then they only recently got found out?

[alturic]

So like, I don't really follow the war per se outside of hearing bits and pieces as background noise, and while I think it's insane Ukraine has been able to fend off Russia for so long, what exactly is the end game here? Funny I ask MMO-C visitors as almost no real analysts have an actual idea even but yeaaa.

Zelenskyy shouldn't give up anything to Russia (easy for me to say sitting in the US, in my comfy chair, I admit) but Russia, by sheer numbers, should be able to defeat Ukraine easily. I don't know if this says more about a (relative) small army going up against Russia, or Russia's army is *way* worse than any analyst thought.

Then you have all these countries pouring weapons and aid into Ukraine, but eventually (as-in Russia doesn't pull out or get sent packing) that well will run dry - of course, the huge asterisk here is we don't know how much of each weapon has been delivered, how much more would be needed to see things through, etc.

[postman1782]

Apparently a lot of them didn’t even know what the area is cause a group of them went joyriding through the red forest, that probably wasn’t very healthy of them.

They were digging trenches there from what I heard.

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Loyal...debatable:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ne-2022-03-30/

If they were still there under orders, they were somewhat loyal.

[Xyonai]

So like, I don't really follow the war per se outside of hearing bits and pieces as background noise, and while I think it's insane Ukraine has been able to fend off Russia for so long, what exactly is the end game here? Funny I ask MMO-C visitors as almost no real analysts have an actual idea even but yeaaa.

Zelenskyy shouldn't give up anything to Russia (easy for me to say sitting in the US, in my comfy chair, I admit) but Russia, by sheer numbers, should be able to defeat Ukraine easily. I don't know if this says more about a (relative) small army going up against Russia, or Russia's army is *way* worse than any analyst thought.

Then you have all these countries pouring weapons and aid into Ukraine, but eventually (as-in Russia doesn't pull out or get sent packing) that well will run dry - of course, the huge asterisk here is we don't know how much of each weapon has been delivered, how much more would be needed to see things through, etc.

Russia was expecting an EZ win Like their Steam roll of Crimea, to explain their absolutely poor performance going into this, and now it's about trying to save face and scramble for -some- sort of win (You can see it in how much they've redoubled their efforts to the east) before they have to pull back. Though, yeah, looking at performance Russia's army is much worse off than anyone could have imagined. Even if their equipment is comparable to Ukraine's - because, for the most part, it is - their logistics and communications have been bafflingly inept.

And Ukraine's banking on that continued ineptitude to hold out. They're playing an endurance game with Russia right now, to see if they can keep standing long enough for international sanctions and military losses to force Russia to the Table; while Russia's playing the game of forcing Ukraine to the table by indiscriminately attacking civilians and destroying medical and food facilities (while sometimes hitting legitimate military targets along the way). Russia can't really afford an occupation - without utterly obliterating the native Ukrainian population - so the best they can do right now is bite off bits of Ukraine that hold valuable resources and hope that's enough.

[NED funded]

I am surprised Russian didnt just occupy regions like Donbass and called it a day. They could have probably gotten away with it too

[YUPPIE]

I am surprised Russian didnt just occupy regions like Donbass and called it a day. They could have probably gotten away with it too

because they are shackled to what Putin wants. Putin's desires. And Putin does not just want Ukraine.

[Xyonai]

I am surprised Russian didnt just occupy regions like Donbass and called it a day. They could have probably gotten away with it too

See above; They expected an easy win and now they're in too deep to pull back without looking silly. But you're right, they probably could have just pulled a Crimea on Donbass and - more or less - got away with it. A few new sanctions here and there, sure, but absorbing a rogue element of another country is a far cry away from setting that entire country on fire.

[Jastall]

I am surprised Russian didnt just occupy regions like Donbass and called it a day. They could have probably gotten away with it too

Overconfidence really was the insidious killer in their case. As you say, occupying the Republics and going "come take them back" at Ukraine would have precipitated far fewer sanctions, fed the Russia Stronk narrative, and possibly caused a crisis in Ukraine as the already unpopular Zelensky would have had to just let it happen.

But na, Russia needed to have it all and thought a 44 million people country was a highway that would fold at the first sight of their tanks. So did most everyone else to be absolutely fair, but thinking the same as everyone else is a failure of intelligence already when you're the one attacking said country.

[PhaelixWW]

Overconfidence really was the insidious killer in their case. As you say, occupying the Republics and going "come take them back" at Ukraine would have precipitated far fewer sanctions, fed the Russia Stronk narrative, and possibly caused a crisis in Ukraine as the already unpopular Zelensky would have had to just let it happen.

But na, Russia needed to have it all and thought a 44 million people country was a highway that would fold at the first sight of their tanks. So did most everyone else to be absolutely fair, but thinking the same as everyone else is a failure of intelligence already when you're the one attacking said country.

You're ignoring Crimea and its lack of fresh water. Putin needed to push into southern Ukraine to unblock the North Crimean Canal to restore the water from the Dnieper River to Crimea. I'm sure he wants to keep Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and maybe even Mykolaiv, along with Donetsk and Luhansk.



It's increasingly looking like that's an unlikely scenario for Putin, though.

[Corvus]

Over the past 24 hours, Ukraine has claimed to have liberated 40 towns and settlements in the north and south.



Locations of the settlements. The ones to the east of Kyiv are the most impressive as they have cut the supply routes for some Russian forces outside of Kyiv.

[PhaelixWW]

The ones to the east of Kyiv are the most impressive as they have cut the supply routes for some Russian forces outside of Kyiv.

Shouldn't they still have supply routes through Belarus?

[Corvus]

Shouldn't they still have supply routes through Belarus?

Not for those ones - the maps here show it better. It'll get worse if the Ukrainians take Nova Basan which they are fighting over.

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First it was an ammo dump and now an oil depot is reportedly on fire at Belgorod in Russia. This video shows it supposedly being hit by something. Oh, wow. The Governor of Belgorod claims it was a result of 2 Ukrainian helicopters firing rockets at it. That is nuts if true.

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Map showing the timeline of the initial Russian advance and also the ground Ukraine has recaptured. A lot more than I had expected.

[PhaelixWW]

I 100% get denying air strikes and saboteurs, the info we have suggests it was shelling anyhow, but..denying explosions?

Welp... this may be a completely unrelated fire, but...

From The Guardian:

An oil depot is reportedly on fire in the Russian city of Belgorod as the regional governor blames Ukrainian military helicopters for the attack.

Vyacheslav Gladkov said on his Telegram channel on Friday morning that the fire was caused by air strikes from two Ukrainian helicopters.

Belgorod sits just north of the border with Ukraine.

Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for any of the blasts.

[jonnysensible]

saw the vid of the rocket, pretty embarrassing for russia to have heli sorties blasting them.

hopefully ukraine can do more in regards to attacking russa proper.

[PhaelixWW]

This video shows it supposedly being hit by something. Oh, wow. The Governor of Belgorod claims it was a result of 2 Ukrainian helicopters firing rockets at it. That is nuts if true.

Oh, wow, yeah, uh... that video...

That moment when you realize that Russia not only doesn't have air superiority in Ukraine, but it also apparently doesn't have air superiority in Russia, either.

[Zaydin]

Oh, wow, yeah, uh... that video...

That moment when you realize that Russia not only doesn't have air superiority in Ukraine, but it also apparently doesn't have air superiority in Russia, either.

If Ukrainian helicopters actually got into Russian air space, blew up a Russian oil depot and got out, that's going to be humiliating for Putler.

[Kallisto]

Shouldn't they still have supply routes through Belarus?

Belarusian rail workers keep sabotaging those.

[YUPPIE]

you people have to understand Ukraine is at a disadvantage because they can only play "defend the castle." They cannot advance any attacks forward, let alone anywhere near taking the fight to Russia.

The reason for that is that Putin will nationalize it as an act of direct aggression, and then deploy WMDs in retaliation.

It's a hopeless situation.