1. #14621
    The Undying Breccia's Avatar
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    Oh, this could be interesting. Or it could be blowhard.

    We've been talking about Russia defaulting because they can't honor their bonds. They just admitted it.

    Russia retaliated in what it has called an "economic war" with the West on Tuesday by offering to buy back its $2 billion Eurobonds maturing next month in roubles rather than dollars.
    "What are Eurobonds, capitalized?"

    Complicated. But they are a contract with a specific currency unit. Not paying in that currency unit is a breach of that contract.

    The finance ministry offer on Eurobonds maturing on April 4, Russia's biggest debt payment this year, follows Western moves to tighten sanctions against the country over its invasion of Ukraine and to freeze Moscow out of international finance.

    It was not immediately clear if bondholders would be forced to accept roubles if they rejected the offer, a move that would break the terms of the bond and would again raise the prospect of Russia's first external sovereign default in a century.

    Creditors said it might be aimed at helping Russian holders who now face restrictions in receiving dollar payments.

    "This is a tender offer and not a final decision that these bonds will be paid in roubles. Perhaps, Russian authorities want to gauge investors’ willingness to accept payment in roubles?" said Seaport Global credit analyst Himanshu Porwal.

    Tim Ash of BlueBay Asset Management, which is not a bondholder, said the move was part of a fight back by Russia's central bank and finance ministry "to fend off default and stabilise markets and the rouble".

    Ash said the United States' Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), which enforces U.S. sanctions, "should make clear" it will not extend a deadline of May 25 for U.S. individuals or entities to receive payments on Russian sovereign bonds.
    Here's where it gets outside of my knowledge. Russia is offering to pay their nominal value, but I'm pretty sure they're offering it based on what they say the ruble is worth. Not what everyone else thinks. Basically, as we've seen, Russia has a currency exchange rate only they use, whereas in international trade the ruble is being dumped. They're also cheating since you can't just buy a bunch of dollars from Russia, but you can sell your dollars...or euros, or eurobonds, for what Russia claims is fair.

    The remaining options are (a) force a default when enough people refuse, or (b) grant an extension and hope Russia somehow gets better, but until then you have a piece of paper of questionable value.

    The Russian government sold the bonds for dollars and is now basically doing an ex-post-facto money exchange. I don't see how this move will magically make more dollars appear in the Russian government or bank. And while I completely see Russia letting the rich Putin allies cash out for dollars first to keep them happy, I see even more the Russian government holding those dollars because of how few and precious they are.

    There's another half-billion on the way, and a month-long grace period, etc etc. This isn't being decided overnight.

    If Russia defaults, it ruins their credit rating and makes it much harder for loyal Russian businesses to borrow internationally. In theory, Russia has dollar cash reserves that can handle this, but probably doesn't want to part with them. They're about to weigh the long-term and short-term benefits of this move. They may yet cave, shrug their shoulders and sigh, handing over $2 billion dollars. Some other novel solution might be reached, like using frozen assets to pay the dollars off.

    But there is no good end to this for Russia. They either fulfill their obligations and have even fewer dollars left, or they cut themselves off from future endeavors even harder than they already have.

  2. #14622
    Quote Originally Posted by Azadina View Post
    Why? To keep casualties squarely on Ruski side in case of a conflict. Seems like a good deal, don't ya think?
    Yeah I know, but you know the reason is cos the perceived threat of Russian military was - as we now know - vastly overrated. Still, having the F-35 ain't bad at all, I think it's a good tool, even if the scope is not as big as the Pentagon clearly would like it to be. But we're all very clear that you don't need an F-35 to negate a fleet of Flankers or... *chuckle* that fabled new SU-35, whatever the fuck that abomination is supposed to achieve.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Fugus View Post
    Question, as a moderator, do you have access to see stuff like a users IP address and other such stuff to see where they track back to? Would be interesting to be able to call out liars saying they are in one space when really they are in another.
    It'd also casually violate all kinds of privacy rights... I'd slap this forum with a complaint just for funsies if they ever pulled a stunt like that.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Polyxo View Post
    I mean, there are definitely neo-Nazis in Ukraine. It's eastern Europe, there's neo-Nazis everywhere, including Russia. They're among Putin's biggest supporters.
    There's neo-nazis in every country.
    Users with <20 posts and ignored shitposters are automatically invisible. Find out how to do that here and help clean up MMO-OT!
    PSA: Being a volunteer is no excuse to make a shite job of it.

  3. #14623
    So unless this goes tits up and everyone is wrong about Putler - what Gaidax and couple of others said about the outcome is looking more and more believable. Have to be noted though the points are Ukrainian offers and not accepted by Russia yet, though Russia is at least pretending to believe them workable and, as per Medinsky, Russia will answer with their own points.

    Going to guess that Kherson and water from it to Crimea is included in the talks as well.

    I can tell you that the most fanatical pro-war/lets-beat-hohlonazis Russians are quite, erm, disliking the current turn of events, "Putin cuckold" is gaining force again.

    Western media is now also reporting about the POWs, but not about the execution video yet
    https://www.bbc.com/news/60907259

    Quote Originally Posted by Eugenik View Post
    You didnt?

    You still stand by this and retract your previous confession?

    I mean, its fine if you are retracting your earlier confession, I dont expect much integrity from you, its just funny to see you post stuff like this:


    You hold people to standards that you, yourself, do not even live up to.
    So you keep returning to the single thing in the past (Oh, btw, how about Ukrainians using DHL minibuses for transport? Surely that can't cause any problems...) instead of talking about what I said to Mihalik about his supposed systematic maintenance failures by Russia? Good to know...
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

  4. #14624
    Quote Originally Posted by zealo View Post
    Big part of why Russia is doing this is the water situation in Crimea becoming critical.

    I don’t think they’re ready yet to pull back from the south without a more permanent answer to that being agreed upon by both sides.
    I feel like they could have built a lot of desalination plants and corresponding power plants for what this has just cost them.

    An incidental goal, surely.
    The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.

  5. #14625
    Scarab Lord Eugenik's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    So you keep returning to the single thing in the past (Oh, btw, how about Ukrainians using DHL minibuses for transport? Surely that can't cause any problems...) instead of talking about what I said to Mihalik about his supposed systematic maintenance failures by Russia? Good to know...
    "What Mihalik said" is a non-sequitur and has nothing to do with you being hypocritical and holding people to standards that you don't abide by.

    So, either you post proof of:
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaaz View Post
    I am constantly seeing our military (Ukrainian military to be exact) ride in ambulances to go between parts of the city.
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    He is right about use of ambulances by soldiers
    OR:
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    admit that you don't have a solid proof.
    Last I checked DHL =/= Ambulance.
    Last edited by Eugenik; 2022-03-29 at 04:25 PM.
    Let's look at the test results. You are a horrible person. It says right here, you're a horrible person. We weren't even testing that. Don't let the horrible person thing get you down though. Science justified your parents choice to abandon you.

  6. #14626
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Japan tells businesses not to do business in rubles. Calls out energy sector in particular not to do that.

    Related: many Asians are complying with trade restrictions to avoid being sanctioned.



    I'm still not sure where China stands on this, seems to be mostly fence-straddling, but since Russia is pushing rope I doubt they're saying "yeah, after all these attempts that failed and these weak excuses from Putin, let's go all-in on that" now of all times. I don't think their love for Russia and their hatred of the US are either/together strong enough to spend significant time, effort, or resources backing the side that is both objectively in the wrong and also losing. I'm not expecting them to shut down trade or anything, but they won't be fencing stolen goods or hiding dead Ukrainian children either.
    Simply put economic interest. Most countries just do not conduct enough trade with Russia to risk incurring the economic wrath of US/EU. Not even Chinese companies are willing to do that. At least not for Russia. The global market is still very much dominated by dollar and euro.

    Countries are still buying cheap Russian crude and gas. Not only because they are cheap, but also because there is no sanction on Russian crude and gas. So why not buy them when they are discounted so heavily. Especially when UAE and SA kept rising the price of their crude.

    Even without sanction, Russia crude export March 17 through 23 is down 26% from the week before.

  7. #14627
    I'm sure this comes as a surprise to absolutely no-one - 'Blinken: No signs that Russia is serious about peace talks with Ukraine.'

    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...27938732625920

  8. #14628
    Brewmaster Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    I'm sure this comes as a surprise to absolutely no-one - 'Blinken: No signs that Russia is serious about peace talks with Ukraine.'

    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...27938732625920
    Yes, because a proposal would immediately lead to withdrawal. I mean I don't trust the Russians either but at least give them the CHANCE of doing something before questioning their motives, by which I mean: more than a few hours.

  9. #14629
    The economic sanction can still get tougher.

    Japan to ban Russia-bound exports of gold from April 5

    Japan will ban the shipment to Russia of precious metals, especially gold, in response to its invasion of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) said on Tuesday.

    The ban on Russia-bound precious metal reflects Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's resolve to impose further sanctions against the country, pledged at last week's meeting of leaders from the Group of Seven (G7) advanced nations.

    The export controls list - including luxury cars, jewellery, cosmetics and liquor - will take effect from April 5.

    Japan's move comes after the United States and Britain took steps to curtail transactions in gold with Russia.

    Britain revised its sanctions guidance on Friday to make clear that British entities cannot help Moscow sell its gold reserves, while the U.S. Treasury Department said a day earlier that gold-related transactions involving Russia may be sanctionable by U.S. authorities.

    The latest ban comes on top of curbs on high-tech exports to Russia, including semiconductors, censors and communication equipment.

    Kishida has announced plans to revoke Russia's most-favoured-nation trading status, which could lead to higher tariffs on its imports, as well as a ban on certain imports from Russia.

    Japan has also frozen the assets of more than 100 Russian individuals and organizations, and is considering extending financial regulations to Japan-based crypto-currency exchanges.

    Tokyo has walked a fine line regarding its energy supplies from Russia, stressing the strategic importance of oil and gas projects in eastern Russia, in which the government and Japanese firms hold stakes.

  10. #14630
    Quote Originally Posted by Eugenik View Post
    "What Mihalik said" is a non-sequitur and has nothing to do with you being hypocritical and holding people to standards that you don't abide by. So either you post proof of:

    OR:
    So a single case which you keep dragging up (and for which I admitted I have no proof) vs constant Slant's and Mihalik's military "knowledge" bullshit? And still ignoring Mihalik's failure to provide proof about maintenance? Ok then. Do whatever you want and join the chorus here claiming Ukraine is winning.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

  11. #14631
    Scarab Lord Eugenik's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    So a single case which you keep dragging up (and for which I admitted I have no proof) vs constant Slant's and Mihalik's military "knowledge" bullshit? And still ignoring Mihalik's failure to provide proof about maintenance? Ok then. Do whatever you want and join the chorus here claiming Ukraine is winning.
    Quote Originally Posted by Eugenik View Post
    It took you 15 pages and a decent amount of pressure before you admitted you were wrong. The audacity of some people...
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    But... I did not.
    You cant even keep your story straight lol. You JUST said you "did not" (admit you were wrong). Im glad you can admit it again now that I have provided receipts, though.
    Let's look at the test results. You are a horrible person. It says right here, you're a horrible person. We weren't even testing that. Don't let the horrible person thing get you down though. Science justified your parents choice to abandon you.

  12. #14632
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    Do whatever you want and join the chorus here claiming Ukraine is winning.
    Well Russia certainly isn't winning. Withdrawing, forced to remove faked "denazification" and "demilitarization" goals from any peace treaties they don't plan to respect anyway.

    Let's not forget banning free media in Russia and most if not all social media. Why is that? It's like russian goverment does not want their citizens to know what is actually happening...

  13. #14633
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...nt-2022-03-29/

    So...are they ACTUALLY scaling down operations around Kyiv, or is this more of a, "We can't keep the siege up due to supply issues so we'll just announce that we're scaling them back instead of just scaling them back because we ran out of things that blow up."?

  14. #14634
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...nt-2022-03-29/

    So...are they ACTUALLY scaling down operations around Kyiv, or is this more of a, "We can't keep the siege up due to supply issues so we'll just announce that we're scaling them back instead of just scaling them back because we ran out of things that blow up."?
    Or they got soundly beaten in the area, forced to retreat, but the official story has to present the murderer-rapists as generous saints who seek peaceful resolution.

  15. #14635

  16. #14636
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    I'm sure this comes as a surprise to absolutely no-one - 'Blinken: No signs that Russia is serious about peace talks with Ukraine.'

    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...27938732625920
    Any peace treaty that doesn't include some severe limitations on Russia and guarantees of a Ukraine-West defense treaty is simply a way to give Russia time to regroup, rearm and invade again.

    It's why these peace talks will take a very long time, Russia absolutely needs to pay a hefty price or else it'll just start shit again in a couple years.

  17. #14637
    Quote Originally Posted by Saradain View Post
    Or they got soundly beaten in the area, forced to retreat, but the official story has to present the murderer-rapists as generous saints who seek peaceful resolution.
    That's what I'm trying to get clarity on. Whether this is actually them making a move, or whether they were doing this anyways and this is just a nice way to frame the move so as not to seem like an abject failure.

  18. #14638
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...nt-2022-03-29/

    So...are they ACTUALLY scaling down operations around Kyiv, or is this more of a, "We can't keep the siege up due to supply issues so we'll just announce that we're scaling them back instead of just scaling them back because we ran out of things that blow up."?
    Tacticool Retreat*

    Not running away.

  19. #14639
    Elemental Lord zealo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Afrospinach View Post
    I feel like they could have built a lot of desalination plants and corresponding power plants for what this has just cost them.

    An incidental goal, surely.
    The scale of desalination needed is non-practical for uses beyond straight up drinking water.

    Ukraine cut access when Russia first seized the peninsula to a canal the soviets built back in the 1960s to divert from the dnieper, and restoring access were one of the first things Russia did back in February there in the opening days of the war.

  20. #14640
    I am Murloc! Poopymonster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saradain View Post
    Well Russia certainly isn't winning. Withdrawing, forced to remove faked "denazification" and "demilitarization" goals from any peace treaties they don't plan to respect anyway.

    Let's not forget banning free media in Russia and most if not all social media. Why is that? It's like russian goverment does not want their citizens to know what is actually happening...
    With the number of Russian troops killed, it sounds like the Denazification went pretty smoothly thus far.
    Quote Originally Posted by Crissi View Post
    Quit using other posters as levels of crazy. That is not ok

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