Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shadowferal]

"The Ukrainians killed 500,000 people you've never met and kicked a puppy".

"...kicked a puppy?"
That sonuvabitch.

[XDurionX]

https://www.newsweek.com/us-india-ru...vasion-1694076

That source doesn't say what you think it does.

[Easo]

It is interesting to see the political dance around India by both West and "East".

So about the roubles for gas - seems we have until the end of April. The confusion increases.

A large POW exchange is supposed to have happened, Ukraine got 86 back, no info about Russian ones.


This idiot
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serhii_Sternenko
is claiming to be near Belgorod (suuure)
https://twitter.com/sternenko/status...64965242220577

War truly draws out the most "interesting" characters.

[Cynep]

From what I've read, while Poroshenko was obviously a much bigger fish, Zelensky and his associates had their own paper trails of holdings and the likes.

Nope. You're wrong. Hint why: Panama papers were published in 2016.

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They have mandatory draft, it happens yearly at the same time. Timing, of course, is not great, but regardless it would take months before draftees are ready and useful. I doubt anyone thinks war will be ongoing after 3 months.

I don't think that it certainly will be, but let's see, in what scenarios can it end within 3 months?

• Ukraine gives up and surrenders - absolutely not.
• Putin admits defeat - nope.
• Revolution / regime change in Russia - hard to predict, but unlikely within 3 months.
• Ukraine achieves military victory - not realistic within 3 months.
• Russia achieves military victory - impossible.
• Russia triggers MAD - very improbable, borderline impossible.
• EU countries abandon Ukraine and force it into a new Minsk - not until autumn/winter really, 3 months is too soon.
• Diplomatic agreement - the least improbable, but judging by progress so far, it can easily last several months.

Show me where I'm wrong, I think the active phase of the war can last more than 3 months. And after that, 15 years of Crimean dispute are possible, if you count those. Anyway more draftees will be used in Ukraine unless Russians want to give all territory back.


On rebuilding of the Ukrainian industry - we'll see, too early to discuss seriously.

[Easo]

Aaaand Australia just canceled the MQ-9 Reaper drone purchase after dragging the whole program on for more than a decade, few months after USA approved selling them.
I have... questions...

I don't think that it certainly will be, but let's see, in what scenarios can it end within 3 months?

On rebuilding of the Ukrainian industry - we'll see, too early to discuss seriously.

My sugestion to you is this - think. What you should ask is this - will the draftees from the last years recruitment whose term is coming to an end, be released from service?

Dude, you are in the "republics". You are gonna stay in the "republics". Do you think Ukraine is gonna sweep down and rescue you? Because that is the feeling I am getting from you.

You are like the counterpart to that Gaaz dude.
P.S.
I might have overused "You".

[Rasulis]

WTI crude - 99.05
Brent - 104.1
Russia ESPO - 79.45

Why not buy it at such a steep discount? Keep in mind, India is not alone. EU countries, Japan and South Korea are doing the same.

Hell, Japan still has oil and gas joint venture projects with Gazprom. Look up Sakhalin 2 project.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Nope. You're wrong. Hint why: Panama papers were published in 2016.

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I don't think that it certainly will be, but let's see, in what scenarios can it end within 3 months?

• Ukraine gives up and surrenders - absolutely not.
• Putin admits defeat - nope.
• Revolution / regime change in Russia - hard to predict, but unlikely within 3 months.
• Ukraine achieves military victory - not realistic within 3 months.
• Russia achieves military victory - impossible.
• Russia triggers MAD - very improbable, borderline impossible.
• EU countries abandon Ukraine and force it into a new Minsk - not until autumn/winter really, 3 months is too soon.
• Diplomatic agreement - the least improbable, but judging by progress so far, it can easily last several months.

Show me where I'm wrong, I think the active phase of the war can last more than 3 months. And after that, 15 years of Crimean dispute are possible, if you count those. Anyway more draftees will be used in Ukraine unless Russians want to give all territory back.


On rebuilding of the Ukrainian industry - we'll see, too early to discuss seriously.

My bad, he showed up in the 2021 Pandora Papers, not the Panama Papers. Still an offshore holding paper trail.

[Mihalik]

I'm still awestruck by the sheer balls on the Ukrainians blowing up that fuel depot in Russia.

They are seriously giving a Winter War level reality check and masterclass on modern war to the whole world. Whatever the outcome, this thing will be subject of study, analysis and hair splitting in military related academia for decades.

[YUPPIE]

I'm still awestruck by the sheer balls on the Ukrainians blowing up that fuel depot in Russia.

it was a pretty risky move considering Putin's mindset.

[Rasulis]

I'm still awestruck by the sheer balls on the Ukrainians blowing up that fuel depot in Russia.

They are seriously giving a Winter War level reality check and masterclass on modern war to the whole world. Whatever the outcome, this thing will be subject of study, analysis and hair splitting in military related academia for decades.

This war gave many Indian generals that queasy feeling in their stomachs. Prior to this war, Russia was already having problem supplying spare parts for the weapons purchased by India. So, India under license with Russia was working on a program to indigenize the manufacturing of those parts. Now the Ukraine war makes them questioned the efficacy of the Russian weapons, and having second thought about the indigenization program.

[Poopymonster]

https://www.newsweek.com/us-india-ru...vasion-1694076

Tweek, did you read it? YOu said there are sactions. Your link says they WILL BE IF they EVADE THE RUSSIA SANCTIONS.
Not "Bitch, we're smackin you now." It's "If you deal with Russia, prepare to be cockwhipped."
For Cher's sake, go back to your Nuke blathering.

[Easo]

In Kherson. Hmm... Plus add the talks about forcing the use of rouble there now.

This war gave many Indian generals that queasy feeling in their stomachs. Prior to this war, Russia was already having problem supplying spare parts for the weapons purchased by India. So, India under license with Russia was working on a program to indigenize the manufacturing of those parts. Now the Ukraine war makes them questioned the efficacy of the Russian weapons, and having second thought about the indigenization program.

Then they would be idiots. Why do you people keep thinking weapons (the equipment) are the problem? It does not work in vacuum by itself, running out of fuel does not happen because the vehicle is shit. Almost everything Ukraine is using is exactly the same thing (mostly just older/less modernized), somehow no one is talking about theirs...
Ask China when they will throw out their stuff (airforce and armor are based on Soviet/Russian designs plus some direct purchases), or half of NATO.

And Indian military... Oh boy. Think Russia's corruption is bad? Hah. Look at the pain called Tejas, Arjun or the Vikrant.

[PhaelixWW]

it was a pretty risky move considering Putin's mindset.

Why do you keep claiming to have inner knowledge of Putin's mindset? Are you Putin's side piece? No? What government officials with more insight into his actual mindset agree with your random fanboy interpretation?

None? Oh, right, then you're just lying again.

[Poopymonster]

I'm worried that Russia will use nukes at Kyiv after "retreat"

Too risky. Chemical or bio warfare is much more likely. Just be careful that shit doesn't flow into that nice waterway they need.

[YUPPIE]

Too risky. Chemical or bio warfare is much more likely. Just be careful that shit doesn't flow into that nice waterway they need.

How would the West even react or what would they do if Putin deploys chemical/biological WMDs?

[Breccia]

it was a--

Hey, remember when you said US had sanctioned India? You coming up with that evidence anytime soon? Because otherwise you lied to us. Stop lying to us.

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How would--

India. Sanctions. Provide proof or admit you were just wrong.

[Easo]

So Ukraine is now officially saying that it was not behind the attack and Russia is going on about the oil depot being civilian.

Two propaganda forces have met and are doing battle in the info field.

[Shadowferal]

Too risky. Chemical or bio warfare is much more likely. Just be careful that shit doesn't flow into that nice waterway they need.

One would think Putin would've done something about the water crisis in Crimea by now.

[PhaelixWW]

One would think Putin would've done something about the water crisis in Crimea by now.

He did. He invaded the south of Ukraine.

[Easo]

There is (was, before they made it private) a video from the Hostomel airport, proving that it indeed was abandoned, with the commander of Mriya, walking around the hangars. One damaged An-124 (realistically - never to fly again) plus closeups of Mriya itself, they think that at least one wing plus some engines can be used, I assume for the never finished 2nd plane. Doubtful, but hope dies last.

One would think Putin would've done something about the water crisis in Crimea by now.

Russia did. New pump stations (there is a story behind those regarding pumps themselves) plus the whole bridge thing.
But you need stupid amounts of water for agriculture, it's not the same as water for the people.

Regardless - I am sure Ukraine is not gonna block the water anymore, almost guaranteed to be part of the peace deal.