Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shadowferal]

*nods at Phaelix and Easo*
I stand corrected, thank you.

[Breccia]

Speaking of cages, Putin put himself in one.

Things are not great for Putin's support amongst the populace, as this NYTimes author tells.

The shame is because these were Russians who had refused to believe that Mr. Putin would actually invade Ukraine

I mean, we've all seen this, so let's cut the author some Shlack for now.

even though they had pushed back against his oppressive rule. They had assumed, as many in the United States and Europe did, that however great Mr. Putin’s hatreds and grievances, however much he resented Ukraine’s independence, he was sufficiently rational not to do something so criminal and self-destructive. And then, as my friend told me, “he just threw over the chess board” and condemned Russia to another cycle of repression and isolation.

Like the large majority of Russians, the intelligentsia had supported Mr. Putin when he first came to power in 2000. He restored a measure of order to the chaos of the early post-Soviet years, and the economy rapidly expanded, and with it the wealth and standard of living for many people in Russia’s big cities.

But over the years Mr. Putin became increasingly less tolerant of dissent, especially as “color” revolutions and pro-Western leanings swept through Ukraine and Georgia and protests over dubious elections filled Russian streets. Independent media was steadily choked off, and nonprofit groups receiving funding from outside the country were required to identity themselves as “foreign agents.”

A growing number of educated Russians began flowing out of Russia, some to Kyiv. When I visited there some years ago, I met several prominent Russian journalists who were, in effect, living in exile, such as Yevgeny Kiselyov, a pioneering Russian television journalist in the 1990s. One Russian reporter told me then that his dream was to build in Ukraine the democracy they were now blocked from building in Russia.

When the word spread that the invasion had begun, the brain drain became a rush for the doors. With flights to more than 30 countries stopped, the twice-daily trains to Finland were full, and many more Russians fled south to Georgia, where they don’t need a visa, or through Gulf States. Their stories are painfully similar, a sense that they have no future in a Russia that has been cast out of the civilized world, and that they are helpless to stop Mr. Putin. One friend, who had been visiting the United States, is applying for political asylum.

It's not like the Kremlin is doing a ton better.

It may be that now finally, Putin has become clear-headed, seeing that a month in, Russia has not achieved its goals that were supposed to have come with lightning speed. It did not take Ukraine in a couple of days. Without regrouping or changing tack, the path ahead looks long and uncertain.

And now Putin's inner circle, which once appeared to be in lockstep about the war and the officially declared reasons for it, is split quite dramatically between those who want to cut Russia's losses and run and those who want to fight until the bitter end, to deliver Ukraine in its entirety to the Russian people. "Some think that Russia should be realistic about its goals and about its resources," Oleg Ignatov of the International Crisis Group told Fox News.

He added that some of the elites actually think taking that position is tantamount to failure: "They would never say this in public, but if you read carefully some statements or posts on Telegram or on other social networks, and if you talk to people, you can see it. "

Meduza's sources say the Kremlin is alarmed by those who think talking with Ukraine this week was admission of defeat. Another quote from another supposedly relevant but unnamed strategist was this: "So much coal was thrown into the locomotive’s furnace, it won’t be possible to stop it right away."

According to Meduza, the Kremlin wants secret polls for their own people and supporters to truly understand what the inner circle and core Russian supporters/believers feel about the war and what it needs to achieve in order to minimize fallout from a climb-down.

The military continues to struggle. Alexander Kornik joins the ranks of Russian commanders who are now dead. The differences are many, but the biggest one could be morale.

Russia’s awful military performance in Ukraine has been the greatest surprise to emerge from President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion, confounding military analysts who had observed tactical and technological improvements in the Russian military in preceding years.

By now it’s clear that Putin’s ambition to capture the port of Odesa and the capital of Kyiv in western Ukraine is almost certainly unrealizable, forcing him to drastically downsize his objectives while disingenuously claiming that had been the real intent all along.

But there’s a flip side to this story: The Ukrainian military has also defied expectations. In the case of the Ukrainian armed forces, they’ve performed well beyond what was anticipated despite a profound imbalance in military capabilities, particularly in air and naval power and long-distance missiles.

The secret to Ukraine’s success rests first of all on its mindset — one Russia itself has strengthened — backed up by dynamic military strategies that have exploited the weaknesses of a powerful, overconfident adversary.

This spirit has been inflamed by Russia’s brazenly unprovoked invasion. Putin’s onslaught temporarily bridged long-standing divisions between Ukrainian and Russian speakers within Ukraine, as well as between political rivals, creating a unified, coordinated force for confronting the invaders. Even occupied cities with predominantly Russian-speaking populations — which have traditionally been more favorably inclined toward Russia — are actively resisting through civil disobedience and protests.

By comparison, Putin seems to have poorly communicated his intentions and objectives to ordinary Russian soldiers, which didn’t instill a strong commitment to the fight among the rank and file. He spent months ridiculing suggestions that he was preparing for war in Ukraine, claiming deployments around the country were simply military exercises. Now some soldiers appear quick to abandon vehicles or surrender rather than die for a war they’re simply not sold on.

[zealo]

One would think Putin would've done something about the water crisis in Crimea by now.

They already have, Russia blew up the dam Ukraine were using to block flow from the Dnieper to Crimea.

What happens after the war regarding that is a matter for the negotiating table at present, but one thing is certain, this won't end without a more permanent agreement on that.

[Cynep]

My sugestion to you is this - think. What you should ask is this - will the draftees from the last years recruitment whose term is coming to an end, be released from service?

Dude, you are in the "republics". You are gonna stay in the "republics". Do you think Ukraine is gonna sweep down and rescue you? Because that is the feeling I am getting from you.

I suspect you know the answer to your question - will they? Regardless of yes/no, draftees whether old or new will be used because Russian military is too weak to successfully fight a conventional war of conquest in Ukraine and their only way to not fail completely is to drown Ukraine in corpses of their draftees.

I'm sitting in a "republic" for 8 years because cost/benefit ratio is not too bleak for smart locals here. (yes I'd prefer to live in EU but this is the hand I've been dealt). For Russians though, to quote Shnur "пришёл полный Донбасс". And for as long as Russia is the enemy #1, you will be paying extra, not me. So, ironically, it's you not me who should be praying for swift Ukrainian victory ;|

[Poopymonster]

He did. He invaded the south of Ukraine.

And if he does deploy chem or bio agents, it'd be a shame if the victims dumped that shit into that very same water.
Even if it was dumping bodies into it.
"Hey, that's a war crime, you dumped bodies we killed using a Geneva Convention breaking chemical agent into the water we illegally invaded to claim!"

[Slant]

Hmm. So, Putinistas scoffed at me when I told them Russia is not doing well. They scoffed at me when I told them Ukraine is holding. They continued to scoff at me when I told them Ukraine is starting to push back.

Now two Ukrainian helicopters successfully attacked a strategic target inside Russia.

When will you stop pretending? I bet when Russia agrees to all terms, retreats and Ukraine is free again, you'll still scoff and pretend Russia is winning. Wonder how long you'll keep that up. Until Ukraine is in the EU and NATO? Ah, I can see it... "It's all part of the plan, we're infiltrating the EU!"

Pathetic.

[Iphie]

Hmm. So, Putinistas scoffed at me when I told them Russia is not doing well. They scoffed at me when I told them Ukraine is holding. They continued to scoff at me when I told them Ukraine is starting to push back.

Now two Ukrainian helicopters successfully attacked a strategic target inside Russia.

When will you stop pretending? I bet when Russia agrees to all terms, retreats and Ukraine is free again, you'll still scoff and pretend Russia is winning. Wonder how long you'll keep that up. Until Ukraine is in the EU and NATO? Ah, I can see it... "It's all part of the plan, we're infiltrating the EU!"

Pathetic.

Ehhh, Ukraine DENIES hitting that depot with those helicopters...

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrain...ys-2022-04-01/

[Breccia]

Ukraine DENIES hitting that depot with those helicopters...

Well, if Russia says one thing and Ukraine the other, I guess I'll have to side with whoever isn't blocking media from outside to their own populace.

[Zaydin]

Well, if Russia says one thing and Ukraine the other, I guess I'll have to side with whoever isn't blocking media from outside to their own populace.

Well, there's a few possibilities here: One is that Ukraine is lying and that they were actually behind it but aren't fessing up to it maybe to keep the Russians guessing what they are still capable of doing or second, Ukraine is telling the truth and they didn't do it.

Which now points the finger at Russia and I can think of a few possible explanations::

1. First is a false flag meant to rile up the Russian populace against Ukraine further, but in that case one would think Putler would have wanted a civilian target hit that would produce a lot of civilian casualties, not a fuel depot with over 6 million gallons of fuel his frontline units really can't afford to lose and is a legitimate military target.

2. It was mutinous Russian helicopter crews blowing up a fuel depot before defecting to Ukraine or some NATO member. Highly unlikely but still a possibility.

3. Sheer Russian incompetence; it was Russian helicopters who had a mission to blow up a target in Ukraine, got lost somehow and blew up a fuel depot belonging to Russia by mistake.

Normally #3 would sound comically unlikely and require huge amounts of incompetence to happen, but as we have seen over the past few weeks, the Russian military has been shown to not be the crack military force we had been told to fear.

[Iphie]

1. First is a false flag meant to rile up the Russian populace against Ukraine further, but in that case one would think Putler would have wanted a civilian target hit that would produce a lot of civilian casualties, not a fuel depot with over 6 million gallons of fuel his frontline units really can't afford to lose and is a legitimate military target.

Not only that: it produced two injured workers, *if* you believe the Governor....but according to the owner/operator of the depot no one was hurt.

(at this point I'm willing to entertain your point number 3 as the probable cause.)

[Zaydin]

Not only that: it produced two injured workers, *if* you believe the Governor....but according to the owner/operator of the depot no one was hurt.

(at this point I'm willing to entertain your point number 3 as the probable cause.)

Like I said, normally it would be extremely unlikely but with the poor performance of the Russian military over the last five weeks (Plus reports of Russian troops shooting down their own aircraft) it can't be eliminated as a possibility at this time.

[Slant]

Ehhh, Ukraine DENIES hitting that depot with those helicopters...

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrain...ys-2022-04-01/

Ok, let me rephrase that...

Now two Russian helicopters are so fed up with this war, they blow up their own depot. Ukraine doesn't even have to attack strategic targets in Russia. That's how much they dominate.

I think that should be more accurate with current events. Like, wtf, Russia? I know Ukraine is beginning to deal heavy punches but even the French don't retreat into attacking themselves...

[Specialka]

Ok, let me rephrase that...

Now two Russian helicopters are so fed up with this war, they blow up their own depot. Ukraine doesn't even have to attack strategic targets in Russia. That's how much they dominate.

I think that should be more accurate with current events. Like, wtf, Russia? I know Ukraine is beginning to deal heavy punches but even the French don't retreat into attacking themselves...

Those jokes are getting old. France was and is one of the greatest military power (with the military history that comes with it).

[Slant]

Those jokes are getting old. France was and is one of the greatest military power (with the military history that comes with it).

I mean, they're still funny, tho. :P

[Mikah]

Well, there's a few possibilities here: One is that Ukraine is lying and that they were actually behind it but aren't fessing up to it maybe to keep the Russians guessing what they are still capable of doing or second, Ukraine is telling the truth and they didn't do it.

Which now points the finger at Russia and I can think of a few possible explanations::

1. First is a false flag meant to rile up the Russian populace against Ukraine further, but in that case one would think Putler would have wanted a civilian target hit that would produce a lot of civilian casualties, not a fuel depot with over 6 million gallons of fuel his frontline units really can't afford to lose and is a legitimate military target.

I still vote for #1.

The other 2 possibilities are just too far fetched, even after what we saw from them in the last month!

[Mihalik]

Ok, let me rephrase that...

Now two Russian helicopters are so fed up with this war, they blow up their own depot. Ukraine doesn't even have to attack strategic targets in Russia. That's how much they dominate.

I think that should be more accurate with current events. Like, wtf, Russia? I know Ukraine is beginning to deal heavy punches but even the French don't retreat into attacking themselves...

I don't know what would it take for the Russian military to recover a fraction of its respectability. I think anyone in his right mind can now agree that we can put the "Russian tanks rolling over NATO" myth to rest. Can they do all sorts of damage (and destroy themselves in the process)? Sure. But its clear now, that Russia is not the USSR. But like the USSR, NATO can Cold War wreck the Russian by simply outspending them. Like how the Germans finally got their Jimmies rustled and they can literally just throw 200B Euros at their military over like one election cycle and it doesn't even put a dent in their economy.

[Breccia]

Well, there's a few possibilities here

Indeed, but I'm more and more inclinded to at least publicly agree with whatever Ukraine says because of, erm, "certain people" with "completely legitimate points from Russia" that might get "a mild difference in opinion".

I would be dumbfounded that the Russian military, after the, erm, "planning and coordination" we've seen so far, was able to execute a false flag attack this expertly. It's like claiming W orchestrated 9/11, but not quite that farfetched. If a bunch of white people with Nazi flags marching with torches yell "We love Trump! We love Trump!" it probably wasn't Antifa.

[Zaydin]

If a bunch of white people with Nazi flags marching with torches yell "We love Trump! We love Trump!" it probably wasn't Antifa.

It didn't stop Trump supporters from claiming that 1/6 was really carried out by BLM/Auntie FA dressed up like Trump supporters to make Trump supporters look bad.

[Slant]

I don't know what would it take for the Russian military to recover a fraction of its respectability. I think anyone in his right mind can now agree that we can put the "Russian tanks rolling over NATO" myth to rest. Can they do all sorts of damage (and destroy themselves in the process)? Sure. But its clear now, that Russia is not the USSR. But like the USSR, NATO can Cold War wreck the Russian by simply outspending them. Like how the Germans finally got their Jimmies rustled and they can literally just throw 200B Euros at their military over like one election cycle and it doesn't even put a dent in their economy.

This is literally what I've been saying for years and years here and in other places. People kept laughing at me every time. This is the difference between peacetime economy and wartime economy. Germany has stashed away a lot of money for exactly things like these. Remember, we've put money into Greece, into Syrian refugees, into Covid, now into Ukraine and our military.

We knew why we were saving up in good times. So we can do shit like that and do what's needed. Perhaps people will get off our back and stop mistaking restraint and pragmatism for cowardice. We're seriously looking into disentangling the entire EU from Russian fossile fuels, too. And that decision has been made already. It's gonna happen. The question is how soon, but Russia has dealt incredible damage to itself and that will not play out this year even. It'll play out in the next 10 years. At the end of it, there's nothing left for Russia.

The only way out is for Russians to learn a few hard lessons. But I have given up on them. And I wouldn't reach out to them after the end of the Cold War either. Keep isolating them until they delivery tangible proof that they have changed their way for good.

[Xyonai]

I don't know what would it take for the Russian military to recover a fraction of its respectability. I think anyone in his right mind can now agree that we can put the "Russian tanks rolling over NATO" myth to rest. Can they do all sorts of damage (and destroy themselves in the process)? Sure. But its clear now, that Russia is not the USSR. But like the USSR, NATO can Cold War wreck the Russian by simply outspending them. Like how the Germans finally got their Jimmies rustled and they can literally just throw 200B Euros at their military over like one election cycle and it doesn't even put a dent in their economy.

Even from my best estimations, I just assumed Russia's military apparatus would be big enough to make an actual war with them 'costly and untenable', which is really all you need as a deterrent against invasion. Because on paper their troop numbers and equipment stockpiles were respectable but, holy shit, the level of pants-on-head incompetency to come out of the Russian armed forces when it came to invading a country that's -right- on their border is to a magnitude no one could have expected. Russia managed to just trick a bunch of people into thinking it's tough by strategically punching down on nations and factions that they hilariously out-gunned, but even the most token of competent resistance is has them on the back foot.

I imagine if Ukraine had an even slightly more robust AA system and a handful more drones they could've just kept Russia off their doorstep entirely. Which they'll probably try and get after this wraps up.