Russian invasion of Ukraine

[jonnysensible]

Only Russia bots were denying it. Everyone else basically knew it was a question of when not if. Russia putting troops on the Ukraine border + western intelligence was telling everyone to get ready for it. It's one of the reasons why Ukraine is doing as well as they are. Everyone knew it was coming.

nah early on (what was it last year? the troop buildup started?) people thought (me) it was a negotiating tactic for some sort concessions from Ukraine like securing nordstream2.

It was only much later on when field hospitals were being constructed and blood supplies (+ the length of deployment) were being sent forward that it actually looked real. That was about the time the intel reports were saying get ready.

This was largely because an invasion made no sense, and still doesn't.

[Ripster42]

nah early on (what was it last year? the troop buildup started?) people thought (me) it was a negotiating tactic for some sort concessions from Ukraine like securing nordstream2.

I was vacillating about it, so I didn't post in this thread. The RF wasn't having success in the east of ukraine, like they'd had in georgia, so I didn't think the situation was stable. At the same time, as you say, the invasion makes no sense; didn't in 2014, doesn't now.

[Nastard]

I think that much is true after these last few years. I have predicted a lot of horrible events that people laughed off before as doomsday rambling.

WTF did you predict? Get it through your skull - your first post here was POSTING WHAT OTHER PEOPLE WERE PREDICTING! The only independent thoughts YOU had regarding this involve nuclear war. How's that turning out?

[PhaelixWW]

This was largely because an invasion made no sense, and still doesn't.

If it had been the three-day success that Putin's generals were probably telling him that it would be, then it would have made sense. In that situation, there likely would have only been a few sanctions, nothing like we're seeing now.

But once that chance had failed spectacularly, then it made a whole let less sense. Putin probably thought he could still salvage something out of it as long as he was willing to just throw more Russians and Ukrainians into the mass grave he was building, but even that seems to be a lost cause now.

Personally, I doubt Putin is stupid enough to have actually ordered the kinds of war crimes that are being uncovered these days, but he certainly ordered the bombing/shelling of civilian targets, and he's realistically responsible for the whole outcome of this entirely unnecessary war.

[Kaleredar]

nah early on (what was it last year? the troop buildup started?) people thought (me) it was a negotiating tactic for some sort concessions from Ukraine like securing nordstream2.

It was only much later on when field hospitals were being constructed and blood supplies (+ the length of deployment) were being sent forward that it actually looked real. That was about the time the intel reports were saying get ready.

This was largely because an invasion made no sense, and still doesn't.

I think the simple fact of the matter was that nothing could really be done until Russia invaded. No country could "preemptively" attack Russia, and furnishing sanctions against them without them having done anything yet would have played right into Russia's hand and likely not actually stopped Russia from doing anything in the long term.

As has been said, they thought this was going to be quick. Russia thought Ukraine was much weaker, much more cowardly, and in turn, thought their own forces much stronger and much more resolute, than they ended up being. And because of that miscalculation, Russia is getting internationally slammed by regulations far more catastrophic than they likely anticipated.

[jonnysensible]

the first 150 odd pages of this threads are peoples pre war opinions if anyone wants to go drag people (as you should) anyway.

Looks like Bucha was brutal. Mass graves, executed civilians with hands tied behind their backs, bodies lining the streets, fighting age males rounded up and executed, rapes, russian troops filling their vehicles with stolen loot.

[PhaelixWW]

I think the simple fact of the matter was that nothing could really be done until Russia invaded. No country could "preemptively" attack Russia, and furnishing sanctions against them without them having done anything yet would have played right into Russia's hand and likely not actually stopped Russia from doing anything in the long term.

As has been said, they thought this was going to be quick. Russia thought Ukraine was much weaker, much more cowardly, and in turn, thought their own forces much stronger and much more resolute, than they ended up being. And because of that miscalculation, Russia is getting internationally slammed by regulations far more catastrophic than they likely anticipated.

Frankly, the best thing for Ukraine (aside from the invasion not happening in the first place) was the slow deliberate lead-up to this thing, because it gave them alllll kinds of time to lay plans and prepare.

russian troops filling their vehicles with stolen loot.

...and then selling it in Belarus or mailing it home to their families.

[Ripster42]

I think the simple fact of the matter was that nothing could really be done until Russia invaded.

They invaded in 2014. And georgia in 2008, even before nordstream 1.

[Kaleredar]

They invaded in 2014. And georgia in 2008, even before nordstream 1.

They certainly did. Taking long-term actions at those times could certainly have majorly preempted this... most of all, transitioning Europe away from being so reliant upon Russian energy sources, such that threatening to close down a major revenue stream for Russia like the Nordstreams would have been a feasible goal leading up this whole debacle.

But hindsight is 20/20, and unfortunately weren't feasibly actionable in such a short period of time.

Furthermore slamming Russia with brutal sanctions before they invaded might have only delayed the invasion... for Russia to go "oh no, don't worry guys, we totes aren't invading!" like they maintained they weren't going to do until they did it, only for Russia to gauge what those sanctions might be and then work to build in ways to avoid the economic collapse they're currently undergoing... only for them to invade after they had done so like the duplicitous snakes Putin and the Kremlin are.


Unfortunately the only real plan now seems to be for Ukraine to continue to fight, other countries to continue to support Ukraine and strangle Russia economically whilst also transitioning themselves away from any reliance on Russia.

Ukraine seems to be regaining ground and have begun to levy attacks into Russia itself. And Russian war crimes, while atrocious affronts against humanity, aren't going to win Russia the war; the Ukrainian population has proven they aren't going to be "intimidated" out of this conflict, and I'm sure hearing stories of civilians brutally murdered only serves to galvanize them further. The sanctions are crippling Russia economically, and every day that goes by Europe is able to further actualize their plan to sever their dependencies on Russia.

[Breccia]

Russia shifting focus to show a victory by early May in eastern Ukraine, US officials say.

As we all know, May 5, Cinco de Mayo as the locals call it, is important to Russians because...hold on.

(re-reads article)

Sorry, I was looking at something else. Of course, in Russia, May 9, Cука de Mayo as the locals call it, is when Russia celebrates how they defeated the Nazis with parades so big Trump laughs and claps his hands. Putin is likely aiming for that date for the obvious parallel.

If Putin can't obtain a tangible victory by then, expect a parade anyhow. Anything to keep the charade going. Because he's losing.

"Putin will have a victory parade on 9th May regardless the status of the war or peace talks," a European defense official said. "On the other hand: a victory parade with what troops and vehicles?"

Still, US and European officials say that any deadlines Moscow may set rhetorically don't change the reality on the ground that Russia appears to be preparing for the prospect of an extended conflict in Ukraine.

A European diplomat said that while the Kremlin is talking optimistically, Putin is preparing for a "Chechnya-style long, drawn-out war, because he, to a certain extent, has nowhere else to go on this."

There are several reasons behind the May time frame, the officials say. As the winter freeze ends and the ground softens, it will be harder for heavy Russian ground units to maneuver, meaning that it's vital for those forces to get into place as soon as possible, US intelligence assesses.

That's a month and change for, well, a limited selection of results.
1) Putin gives up and orders a complete withdrawl, followed by slamming the door, a single gunshot, and three days later a smell resembling kholodets but not as bad wafts out.
2) Putin continues to throw meat in the grinder, he misses his deadline, there is no parade, Russian opinion on the war turns south West and sanctions continue. Putin's until recently rich friends find rat poison and draw straws.
3) Putin continues to throw meat in the grinder, but there is a parade, attendance fun and frivolity are enforced at gunpoint. While Russian conscripts and Ukrainian civilians continue to die, Putin is resoundingly mocked for celebrating needless death and his few remaining allies start to cautiously back away from the dictator whose symbol is literally half a Swastika.
4) Putin escalates, suddenly and rapidly, burning his dwindling assets on massive air strikes, chemical weapons, or those 2 million troops I swear sources claimed he had and I believed them. While I think Putin wants this outcome, I don't know if he can physically do it -- or more to the point, physically do it and still have anything left. Conquering other former USSRmates becomes impossible, and Putin dies of old age crying about what could have been.
5) Putin escalates, suddenly and rapidly, and Ukraine backs down and surrenders. Based on what we've seen so far, I don't see this as realistic.
6) Putin talks big in front of the camera then floats Ukraine a deal that's far more generous than anyone was expecting. Ukraine accepts, Putin claims Most Glorious Victory and ends up with nothing but his pride and a pile of corpses.

You'll notice I didn't add "Putin nukes everything". Even if Putin was willing to nuke his next door neighbor after his own troops are literally carried off the battlefield with Chernobyl poisoning, I don't think even he can sell "I nuked Ukraine, let's all get drunk and laid" as a selling point of a victory. Nor do I trust Putin's lifespan to increase when he orders nukes his own troops. Oh, nor do I expect NATO to suddenly rashly commit an act of war to give Putin an excuse he needs...or even if that somehow tragically happened, hosting a parade in a smoldering crater requires routines the Russians haven't practiced.

Are there other options? Which do you expect to happen?

[Iphie]

Russia shifting focus to show a victory by early May in eastern Ukraine, US officials say.

As we all know, May 5, Cinco de Mayo as the locals call it, is important to Russians because...hold on.

(re-reads article)

Sorry, I was looking at something else. Of course, in Russia, May 9, Cука de Mayo as the locals call it, is when Russia celebrates how they defeated the Nazis with parades so big Trump laughs and claps his hands. Putin is likely aiming for that date for the obvious parallel.

If Putin can't obtain a tangible victory by then, expect a parade anyhow. Anything to keep the charade going. Because he's losing.



That's a month and change for, well, a limited selection of results.
1) Putin gives up and orders a complete withdrawl, followed by slamming the door, a single gunshot, and three days later a smell resembling kholodets but not as bad wafts out.
2) Putin continues to throw meat in the grinder, he misses his deadline, there is no parade, Russian opinion on the war turns south West and sanctions continue. Putin's until recently rich friends find rat poison and draw straws.
3) Putin continues to throw meat in the grinder, but there is a parade, attendance fun and frivolity are enforced at gunpoint. While Russian conscripts and Ukrainian civilians continue to die, Putin is resoundingly mocked for celebrating needless death and his few remaining allies start to cautiously back away from the dictator whose symbol is literally half a Swastika.
4) Putin escalates, suddenly and rapidly, burning his dwindling assets on massive air strikes, chemical weapons, or those 2 million troops I swear sources claimed he had and I believed them. While I think Putin wants this outcome, I don't know if he can physically do it -- or more to the point, physically do it and still have anything left. Conquering other former USSRmates becomes impossible, and Putin dies of old age crying about what could have been.
5) Putin escalates, suddenly and rapidly, and Ukraine backs down and surrenders. Based on what we've seen so far, I don't see this as realistic.
6) Putin talks big in front of the camera then floats Ukraine a deal that's far more generous than anyone was expecting. Ukraine accepts, Putin claims Most Glorious Victory and ends up with nothing but his pride and a pile of corpses.

You'll notice I didn't add "Putin nukes everything". Even if Putin was willing to nuke his next door neighbor after his own troops are literally carried off the battlefield with Chernobyl poisoning, I don't think even he can sell "I nuked Ukraine, let's all get drunk and laid" as a selling point of a victory. Nor do I trust Putin's lifespan to increase when he orders nukes his own troops. Oh, nor do I expect NATO to suddenly rashly commit an act of war to give Putin an excuse he needs...or even if that somehow tragically happened, hosting a parade in a smoldering crater requires routines the Russians haven't practiced.

Are there other options? Which do you expect to happen?

Number 6 seems to have been dangled in front of the Ukrainians nose...

Ukraine’s top negotiator said that Moscow had “verbally” agreed to key Ukrainian proposals, reports AFP.

Here is some further detail from AFP:

Negotiator David Arakhamia told Ukrainian television channels that any meeting between Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin would “with a high probability” take place in Turkey.

“The Russian Federation has given an official answer to all positions, which is that they accept the (Ukrainian) position, except for the issue of Crimea (annexed by Russia in 2014),” Arakhamia said.

He said that while there was “no official confirmation in writing”, the Russian side said so “verbally”.

Arakhamia said Moscow had agreed in talks that a referendum on the neutral status of Ukraine “will be the only way out of this situation.”

Asked what would happen if Ukrainians voted against a neutral status for the country, Arakhamia said “we will either return to a state of war, perhaps, or return to new negotiations.”

The Kremlin has insisted that Ukraine adopt a neutral status.

The date of any possible talks is not confirmed.

From here https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...m-more-in-live

may need to scroll a bit, at the time of linking this was the first item. (I'm only a little bit skeptical)

[Breccia]

The sanctions are crippling Russia economically

[Polyxo]

Russia shifting focus to show a victory by early May in eastern Ukraine, US officials say.

As we all know, May 5, Cinco de Mayo as the locals call it, is important to Russians because...hold on.

(re-reads article)

Sorry, I was looking at something else. Of course, in Russia, May 9, Cука de Mayo as the locals call it, is when Russia celebrates how they defeated the Nazis with parades so big Trump laughs and claps his hands. Putin is likely aiming for that date for the obvious parallel.

If Putin can't obtain a tangible victory by then, expect a parade anyhow. Anything to keep the charade going. Because he's losing.



That's a month and change for, well, a limited selection of results.
1) Putin gives up and orders a complete withdrawl, followed by slamming the door, a single gunshot, and three days later a smell resembling kholodets but not as bad wafts out.
2) Putin continues to throw meat in the grinder, he misses his deadline, there is no parade, Russian opinion on the war turns south West and sanctions continue. Putin's until recently rich friends find rat poison and draw straws.
3) Putin continues to throw meat in the grinder, but there is a parade, attendance fun and frivolity are enforced at gunpoint. While Russian conscripts and Ukrainian civilians continue to die, Putin is resoundingly mocked for celebrating needless death and his few remaining allies start to cautiously back away from the dictator whose symbol is literally half a Swastika.
4) Putin escalates, suddenly and rapidly, burning his dwindling assets on massive air strikes, chemical weapons, or those 2 million troops I swear sources claimed he had and I believed them. While I think Putin wants this outcome, I don't know if he can physically do it -- or more to the point, physically do it and still have anything left. Conquering other former USSRmates becomes impossible, and Putin dies of old age crying about what could have been.
5) Putin escalates, suddenly and rapidly, and Ukraine backs down and surrenders. Based on what we've seen so far, I don't see this as realistic.
6) Putin talks big in front of the camera then floats Ukraine a deal that's far more generous than anyone was expecting. Ukraine accepts, Putin claims Most Glorious Victory and ends up with nothing but his pride and a pile of corpses.

You'll notice I didn't add "Putin nukes everything". Even if Putin was willing to nuke his next door neighbor after his own troops are literally carried off the battlefield with Chernobyl poisoning, I don't think even he can sell "I nuked Ukraine, let's all get drunk and laid" as a selling point of a victory. Nor do I trust Putin's lifespan to increase when he orders nukes his own troops. Oh, nor do I expect NATO to suddenly rashly commit an act of war to give Putin an excuse he needs...or even if that somehow tragically happened, hosting a parade in a smoldering crater requires routines the Russians haven't practiced.

Are there other options? Which do you expect to happen?

I could see something where Putin 'declares victory', telling everyone he got the Nazis, and then withdraws back to Donetsk and Luhansk and tries to extricate Russia from the economic situation its in.

[Breccia]

“The Russian Federation has given an official answer to all positions, which is that they accept the (Ukrainian) position, except for the issue of Crimea (annexed by Russia in 2014),” Arakhamia said.

(I'm only a little bit skeptical)

Maybe you can check my read on this: Russia is at least claiming to back away, keeping Crimea but giving up any gains in this war, in exchange for Ukraine not joining NATO and...nothing else? I think I see where the skepticism comes from.

- - - Updated - - -

withdraws back to Donetsk and Luhansk and tries to extricate Russia from the economic situation its in.

I mean...if he invades a sovereign country and occupies part of it, those sanctions aren't going anywhere. Well, unless Trump wins in 2024 and just removes them like he did last time.

[Kaleredar]

Number 6 seems to have been dangled in front of the Ukrainians nose...



From here https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...m-more-in-live

may need to scroll a bit, at the time of linking this was the first item.

Maybe you can check my read on this: Russia is at least claiming to back away, keeping Crimea but giving up any gains in this war, in exchange for Ukraine not joining NATO and...nothing else? I think I see where the skepticism comes from.

Russia's verbal agreements aren't worth the air they'd be said with that would form the carbon dioxide that would help grow the tree to make the paper their equally-worthless written agreements would be written on.

Any "peace solution" Ukraine can actually get out of Russia needs to be swiftly followed by Ukraine making some fast friends with a bunch of countries with their own scary weapon arsenals to make Russia legitimately think twice about trying to annex some further copse of Ukrainian territory. (though to be fair I'm not sure Russia thought one whole time before the current invasion)

And the rest of the world has a further role to play as well to put Russia back in its place, and make sure it stays there. Make Russia come to the bargaining table to get sanctions removed... perhaps some sort of reparations agreement to Ukraine to see sanctions lifted from them. And all the while Europe needs to stay committed to removing itself from its reliance upon Russian energy sources. If 2008, and 2014, and now 2022, weren't clear enough... Russia is not a country to be trusted to act like a big boy country. It needs to be forced into behaving, at least as long as Putin and his ilk are unilaterally in charge of the country.

I mean...if he invades a sovereign country and occupies part of it, those sanctions aren't going anywhere. Well, unless Trump wins in 2024 and just removes them like he did last time.

God forbid.

Luckily (?) Trump did a real idiot move in supporting Russia and Putin in this early on, as America by the vast majority, in both political parties, supports Ukraine in all of this. If this is a thing that's still going in 2024, that's going to majorly damage Trump's candidacy if he runs. Furthermore, they're bullshit nonsense about "Biden and/or his son's vague, supposedly nefarious dealings with Ukraine" will get them even less political ground than it did in the 2020 election.

However, I'd like to hope that 1) this is resolved by 2024 and 2) Trump, for any reason whatsoever (too broke, too imprisoned, too dead from being an unhealthy obese fatass) does not run. I don't even necessarily expect him to win, I just don't want that moron's face on TV ever again. Having that idiot off of social media and any legitimate platform for the past year and some change has been intensely healing.

[Iphie]

Maybe you can check my read on this: Russia is at least claiming to back away, keeping Crimea but giving up any gains in this war, in exchange for Ukraine not joining NATO and...nothing else? I think I see where the skepticism comes from.

That's pretty much how I read it as well and that NATO thing is dependent on a referendum you KNOW won't result in neutrality.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Russia is serious about this, what's the end game here? A legitimized Crimea? a betrayed Donbass region? Those separatists will not be happy if this were true.

Now we don't know the exact words in that draft, so it is possible there's a provision for the Donbass as well. ( I Still think it would be a amusing if Zelenskyy said, you can have it but it needs to remain neutral and demilitarized, as a buffer between us and Russia.)

Russia's verbal agreements aren't worth the air they'd be said with that would form the carbon dioxide that would help grow the tree to make the paper their equally-worthless written agreements would be written on.

Hence my skepticism. I'll believe it when I see it and when Ukraine has a few big tough buddies in it's corner.

[Polyxo]

Maybe you can check my read on this: Russia is at least claiming to back away, keeping Crimea but giving up any gains in this war, in exchange for Ukraine not joining NATO and...nothing else? I think I see where the skepticism comes from.

- - - Updated - - -



I mean...if he invades a sovereign country and occupies part of it, those sanctions aren't going anywhere. Well, unless Trump wins in 2024 and just removes them like he did last time.

Yeah, I was thinking more along the lines of him trying to weaken their effect through intermediaries like India, China, maybe Brazil?

[Forogil]

Difference between Ruski terrorists and ISIS fighters? Fuck all, apart from there being more of the former.

There are some differences. Most ISIS fighters believe in what they fight for; I doubt that is true for the Ruski terrorists - or even that they know what they are supposedly fighting for.

[Azadina]

There are some differences. Most ISIS fighters believe in what they fight for; I doubt that is true for the Ruski terrorists - or even that they know what they are supposedly fighting for.

For sure. Let me add something to my previous, a clarification if you will: any redeeming differences between them are...non existant.

[Vorkreist]

As for dead bodies and other things - I trust no one

I trust no one except russian propaganda you mean.