Russian invasion of Ukraine

[jonnysensible]

Good to see our own Liz Truss, the Poundshop Thatcher, riding triumphantly to the rescue in Moscow, in a visit which was in no way another PR opportunity for any upcoming Conservative leadership contest. Lavrov said speaking to her was like "speaking to a deaf person who listens but does not hear". Obviously some sort of complementary Russian colloquialism.

she spent more time picking her hat than reading her brief. Lavrov made it clear that Russia doesn't consider GB to have any part in a donbas settlement. Its almost like she was invited there for a dressing down.

'I haven’t been in diplomatic negotiations like this for some time. They could have be live on television. Nothing secret, no trust. Just slogans shouted from the tribunes'

Looks like the conservatives domestic policy of shouting slogans doesn't work in international negotiations, who'd of thunk it.

Ben Wallace,Tony Radakin and Ralph Wooddisse meeting Sergey Shoigu should be more interesting.

[Skulltaker]

I said possible civil war and definite power struggle, yes you still have to pay the principle but getting negative interest rates combined with inflation means not running a balance is economically stupid. The reason the US is facing government shut downs every year is because of how a law is written and our political divide on top of how screwed up our senate is. The US governmental system is only good at one thing grandstanding and doing nothing, the debt ceiling could be done automatically but then Senators wouldn't be able to use it for votes. That's the reason the grandstanders (GOP) now have given the senate the power to pass it along party lines so that they can keep complaining about it without the obligation to do anything. The whole thing boils down to US laws are awful not designed to work or be democratic.

Most of your loans are going to come from your citizens just like in the US. The rhetoric about China owning the US is pure bullshit they aren't even our biggest foreign debt holder Japan is. The reason countries are beholden to China is trade since so much of our economy relies on their cheap labor. I am going on a tangent here but there's obviously a lot you don't understand.

I'm not going to wait for you to make a reply to see if you know the answer, or if you just copy-paste if from somewhere, so;

I get debtors can't just demand their money back. Very simplyfied, they buy bonds, which expire, at which point the Treasury pays them off, and the debtors - hopefully - buy new bonds. And these debtors, for the most part, aren't the government, but companies. But none of that changes the fact that you're using money that was given to you with a promise of return. And that money lies with people who may not have your best interests in mind. Obviously, the notion of China, Saudi-Arabia or whatever nation 'owning' the US is bs. But they have money invested in you, money you depend on. If said money were to stop coming, what then? What if noone wants your bonds, your debt any more? How will you compensate for that?

[Draco-Onis]

I'm not going to wait for you to make a reply to see if you know the answer, or if you just copy-paste if from somewhere, so;

I get debtors can't just demand their money back. Very simplyfied, they buy bonds, which expire, at which point the Treasury pays them off, and the debtors - hopefully - buy new bonds. And these debtors, for the most part, aren't the government, but companies. But none of that changes the fact that you're using money that was given to you with a promise of return. And that money lies with people who may not have your best interests in mind. Obviously, the notion of China, Saudi-Arabia or whatever nation 'owning' the US is bs. But they have money invested in you, money you depend on. If said money were to stop coming, what then? What if noone wants your bonds, your debt any more? How will you compensate for that?

I have a degree in economics and worked on wall street for years maybe that's why you think my answers are copy and paste?

There's really no reason for these countries to stop buying bonds as long as you remain highly rated. Bonds are not the source of influence or corruption in the US but our political donation system where people can "donate" unlimited money even foreigner using opaque instruments. The bond market is basically a circle jerk for lack of a better word, we buy their bonds they buy our bonds most of it is being done by private entities. Bonds are used for securitization and a lot of financial engineering that I rather not go into but let's just say people would never stop buying bonds unless our entire global financial system collapse.

If you want to see what happens if no one wants your bonds you can look up Argentina, it's the perfect case of what occurs. It's not necessarily the end of borrowing even if you are downgraded to junk and can't get money off the traditional bond market there are borrowers of last resorts. Again the odds the US or Germany get downgraded to junk are very low it would mean the country has collapsed financially.

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Mhm. What happens if these debtors want their money back?

Bonds have terms and it varies wildly by bond but you usually can't just call up the debt before the maturity date unless there's extreme circumstances.

[Skulltaker]

I have a degree in economics and worked on wall street for years maybe that's why you think my answers are copy and paste?

There's really no reason for these countries to stop buying bonds as long as you remain highly rated. Bonds are not the source of influence or corruption in the US but our political donation system where people can "donate" unlimited money even foreigner using opaque instruments. The bond market is basically a circle jerk for lack of a better word, we buy their bonds they buy our bonds most of it is being done by private entities. Bonds are used for securitization and a lot of financial engineering that I rather not go into but let's just say people would never stop buying bonds unless our entire global financial system collapse.

If you want to see what happens if no one wants your bonds you can look up Argentina, it's the perfect case of what occurs. It's not necessarily the end of borrowing even if you are downgraded to junk and can't get money off the traditional bond market there are borrowers of last resorts. Again the odds the US or Germany get downgraded to junk are very low it would mean the country has collapsed financially.

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Bonds have terms and it varies wildly by bond but you usually can't just call up the debt before the maturity date unless there's extreme circumstances.

You're thinking like a financier. It may not be a financially sound move to stop buying them, but what if that wasn't the goal? China buys a decent amount of these bonds, right? What if they stopped doing so? China's about as totalitarian a regime (with influence) as it comes. What if the Chinese government pressured their companies, investors etc. to stop doing so?

[Kaleredar]

Thank you good sir for this amazing analogy and for getting the roles right

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Or perhaps they should not put themselves through unnecessary struggle over petty reasons

Opposing Russia deciding that they deserve Ukraine and preparing to invade a sovereign nation because reasons is “petty?”

I mean, I’m sure Germany thought they deserved Poland back in the 30s too.

[Draco-Onis]

You're thinking like a financier. It may not be a financially sound move to stop buying them, but what if that wasn't the goal? China buys a decent amount of these bonds, right? What if they stopped doing so? China's about as totalitarian a regime (with influence) as it comes. What if the Chinese government pressured their companies, investors etc. to stop doing so?

It would not be a big deal for the United States given the percentage they buy. However it would signal to the market that both countries have a high possibility of going to war, it's basically the financial equivalent of pearl harbor. The resulting snowball that would start would collapse the markets frankly we would be more worried about WWIII than anything else.

[Easo]

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that NATO's threats and ultimatums is a path to nowhere.

This is quite funny considering the ultimatum Russia did.

just imagine the Ukrainians are Palestinians and the Russians are Israel. Should sort this thread out for you.

You can do better than that. I suggest spending time on trolling the bots from IRA instead...

[Elegiac]

Germany going "green"

closed three nuclear power plants

Has nothing to do with "going green" and everything to do with bad PR for nuclear power after Chernobyl and Fukushima-Daiichi.

Y'all need to get your talking points sorted out. Switching to renewables rather than fossil fuels is the exact opposite of increasing energy dependency on East Ukraine.

[Biglog]

This situation is getting to crunch time. Russia has said they will provide a written response to NATO's response on Ukraine within 24 hours. Ukraine is officially activating the Vienna agreement provision today where Russia has 24-48 hours to explain it's military activities on the border.

Putin was one of few world leaders to attend the opening ceremonies of the Olympics in Beijing, where conveniently Russia made a statement doubling-down their support of China's position on Taiwan. I would not be surprised if China said we'll politically stand behind you Russia on the invasion of Ukraine if you support us on Taiwan, just wait until after the Olympics to invade so as to not tarnish our hosting of that. Russia has stood up field hospitals and has the majority of it's equipment in position now. When Hell Breaks Loose is the only question at this point, would Russia strike now and politically upset China, possibly but probably not. But after the Olympics close on the 20th, I'd say all eyes on the border.

[Easo]

Biden said that all Americans should leave Ukraine immediately.

US President Joe Biden has called on all American citizens remaining in Ukraine to leave the country immediately, citing increased threats of Russian military action.

Mr Biden said he would not send troops to rescue Americans if Moscow invades Ukraine.

He warned that "things could go crazy quickly" in the region.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60342814

[Kreuger]

UK have done the same today.


Also this from Shifrin

https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/sta...XFrrXvxJVkcPPA

NEW: The US believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, and has communicated that decision to the Russian military, three Western and defense officials tell me.


More troops to Poland

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ay-2022-02-11/

"WASHINGTON, Feb 11 (Reuters) - The United States will be sending 3,000 additional troops to Poland in the coming days to try and help reassure NATO allies, four U.S. officials told Reuters on Friday, as Russia held military exercises in Belarus and the Black Sea following the buildup of its forces near Ukraine."

[Easo]

Also this from Shifrin

https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/sta...XFrrXvxJVkcPPA

NEW: The US believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, and has communicated that decision to the Russian military, three Western and defense officials tell me.

https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/sta...16395483996160

He is saying that it has not been confirmed that Putin has given the final decision.

In similar news - Netherlands, South Korea, Japan and Latvia too are asking all citizens to leave Ukraine and to not travel there, as the risk is high.

[Gaidax]

Guess I need to go poke 2 of my friends that decided to move to Ukraine like 2 years ago and tell them to come back while they can.

/shrug

[Magnagarde]

Has nothing to do with "going green" and everything to do with bad PR for nuclear power after Chernobyl and Fukushima-Daiichi.

Y'all need to get your talking points sorted out. Switching to renewables rather than fossil fuels is the exact opposite of increasing energy dependency on East Ukraine.

My point is absolutely sorted out. Green and renewable energy sources are extremely costly and, at this time, inefficient and insufficient to cover the energy needs of economies that struggle with the current inflation and in times of a global pandemic. Shutting down nuclear plants, raising taxes on fossil fuels and investing in unreliable and inefficient sources of energy is making EU economies depend even more on Russian gas. This dependence then leads to the inability to act in one's self-interest when faced by challenges coming from a major energy supplier.

I am absolutely supporting the use of renewable and clean energy, but it is absolutely ridiculous to commit to this when facing challenges presented by countries that contribute to global polution more than the entirety of the EU combined. This is a hasty and extremely irrational energy transition and its timing couldn't have been worse. It is a luxurious endeavor not everyone can afford. Thinking that renewable energy sources will make a good substitute for Russian gas and sufficiently boost European energy independence is laughable. It is high time that EU states put the interests of their citizens and their economies before investor lobbying.

[Gaidax]

My point is absolutely sorted out. Green and renewable energy sources are extremely costly and, at this time, inefficient and insufficient to cover the energy needs of economies that struggle with the current inflation and in times of a global pandemic. Shutting down nuclear plants, raising taxes on fossil fuels and investing in unreliable and inefficient sources of energy is making EU economies depend even more on Russian gas. This dependence then leads to the inability to act in one's self-interest when faced by challenges coming from a major energy supplier.

I am absolutely supporting the use of renewable and clean energy, but it is absolutely ridiculous to commit to this when facing challenges presented by countries that contribute to global polution more than the entirety of the EU combined. This is a hasty and extremely irrational energy transition and its timing couldn't have been worse. It is a luxurious endeavor that nobody can afford. Thinking that renewable energy sources will make a good substitute for Russian gas and therefor boost European energy independence is laughable. It is high time that EU states put the interests of their citizens and their economies before investor lobbying.

I also think this way.

It's sort of self-feeding problem though. If you don't commit - you end up delaying it by many years, but here there was some commitment and it comes back to bite them in the ass.

There is actually a good old joke in USSR where usual course of action was to destroy the old, but did not build the new yet. So you ended up in the usual shit.

Seems like Europe is exactly there now and Putin's Ukraine adventure is just one of the results of it - because he knows that half a Europe can't realistically pull through without sucking that Russian pipe, so he gets to get cocky and probably even get away with it.

Due to how EU structured and reality of most eastern members literally being 100% dependent on Russian gas, he knows he can soften the sanctions blow just enough to make the whole thing worth it.

[JohnBrown1917]

I'm willing to bet that Russia is not going to invade this week, or even this month.

[Elegiac]

My point is absolutely sorted out.

I am absolutely supporting the use of renewable and clean energy

Which is why you launched into a tangent about renewables being expensive and inefficient (both haven't been true for more than a decade) and a myriad of other climate change denialist talking points (see: "Why should we switch when East Ukraine/West Taiwan/India/Africa isn't?") when confronted with the fact that Germany's shift away from nuclear power has fuck all to do with "going green". Sure, Jan.

It is high time that EU states put the interests of their citizens and their economies before investor lobbying.

Because as we all know fossil fuel suppliers do not and have never lobbied politicians ever. /s

[Magnagarde]

Which is why you launched into a tangent about renewables being expensive and inefficient (both haven't been true for more than a decade) and a myriad of other climate change denialist talking points (see: "Why should we switch when East Ukraine/West Taiwan/India/Africa isn't?") when confronted with the fact that Germany's shift away from nuclear power has fuck all to do with "going green". Sure, Jan.



Because as we all know fossil fuel suppliers do not and have never lobbied politicians ever. /s

I have "launched into a tangent" because it isn't logical to go through with it at this time. That doesn't mean I don't support implementing renewable energy in to a larger degree when the time is right and when it can be cushioned. A global accord must be met.

The fossil fuel suppliers have indeed lobbied for the longest of time, but their lobbying didn't come at the expense of the economy, recovery of said economy and industrial production. Hiking fuel prices are slowing down the recovery of many economies and this hike is largely attributed through sanctions towards large oil exporters and fossil fuel taxation.

Germany's shift from nuclear energy is entirely based on environmental concerns and it has got everything to do with going green. It is also phasing out coal.

It is absolutely delusional to attempt to "battle climate change" when the biggest poluters in the world won't commit to it. The only thing this then does is enable the domination of said countries through dominance within the industrial and energy sectors. Fighting climate change like this won't create jobs, raise the purchasing power of the average citizen, drive growth and technological advancement as a result of all the aforementioned.

[Elegiac]

The fossil fuel supplies have indeed lobbied for the longest of time, but their lobbying didn't come at the expense of the economy, recovery of said economy and industrial production.

You're right; it's just come at the cost of precipitating an environmental disaster that poses an existential threat to civilization as we know it.

Germany's shift from nuclear energy is entirely based on environmental concerns.

It's based entirely on bad PR in the wake of Fukushima-Daiichi, as said.

The only thing this then does is enable the domination of said countries through dominance within the industrial and energy sectors.

"We need to challenge East Ukrainian dominance of the energy sector by continuing to rely on East Ukraine for our energy needs."

Fighting climate change like this won't create jobs, raise the purchasing power of the average citizen, drive growth and technological advancement

You're right, the current half-assed approach won't do it. It needs to be far more concerted in the vein of a Green New Deal.

[Magnagarde]

You're right; it's just come at the cost of precipitating an environmental disaster that poses an existential threat to civilization as we know it.

It must be great to live in Bambi's world. Meanwhile in the real world however a global energy disruption could bring about the end of civilization a lot sooner than climate change.

Without fossil fuels, human life would be less civilized and much more primitive. Then again, I'm sure you'd run a country like France or Italy with wind energy.

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It's based entirely on bad PR in the wake of Fukushima-Daiichi, as said.

It's environmental and environmental is mutually inclusive with green. Basing a country's energy sector independence on "PR" is the most idiotic thing one could possible do.

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You're right, the current half-assed approach won't do it. It needs to be far more concerted in the vein of a Green New Deal.

Yes, I'm sure China and India will follow suit with half the worlds population at their back.

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I also think this way.

It's sort of self-feeding problem though. If you don't commit - you end up delaying it by many years, but here there was some commitment and it comes back to bite them in the ass.

There is actually a good old joke in USSR where usual course of action was to destroy the old, but did not build the new yet. So you ended up in the usual shit.

Seems like Europe is exactly there now and Putin's Ukraine adventure is just one of the results of it - because he knows that half a Europe can't realistically pull through without sucking that Russian pipe, so he gets to get cocky and probably even get away with it.

Due to how EU structured and reality of most eastern members literally being 100% dependent on Russian gas, he knows he can soften the sanctions blow just enough to make the whole thing worth it.

That's all there is to it.