Russian invasion of Ukraine

[zorkuus]

With the amount of war crimes though, I don't know that any real peace negotiations are really possible at this point, beyond achieving peace through putting a Javelin through every Russian in Ukraine.

Possible? I don't think it would be smart either. The dredibility of russians upholding any deal is less than zero at this point. They lie more than tRump... if that is even possible.

[Zaydin]

Possible? I don't think it would be smart either. The dredibility of russians upholding any deal is less than zero at this point.

Which is why Ukraine needs to be given fast-track membership into NATO ASAP. Putler has made the word of the Russian government as worthless as the ruble.

[PhaelixWW]

Which is why Ukraine needs to be given fast-track membership into NATO ASAP.

That's not really the way NATO membership works, though.

[Zaydin]

That's not really the way NATO membership works, though.

There needs to be an exception for Ukraine given if any country needs NATO membership right now, it's Ukraine. Putler can't be trusted in the slightest; he will break any peace agreements with Ukraine and invade again the instant he thinks he has rebuilt his military from the laughing stock it is now.

His mouthpieces in the Russian state news calling for the genocide of Ukraine is proof of that.

[Kaleredar]

There needs to be an exception for Ukraine given if any country needs NATO membership right now, it's Ukraine. Putler can't be trusted in the slightest; he will break any peace agreements with Ukraine and invade again the instant he thinks he has rebuilt his military from the laughing stock it is now.

His mouthpieces in the Russian state news calling for the genocide of Ukraine is proof of that.

I think the hesitancy is the notion that, were Ukraine at a time of war to be inducted into NATO, it would immediately place NATO at war. Which they want to avoid; they want the threat of NATO to deter attacks.

Basically, Ukraine needs to affect some kind of ceasefire, and THEN join NATO. Like, at the jump, before Russia can decide they want to re-invade.

Without Ukraine securing some sort of defensive alliance, the only thing this will teach Putin is how he needs to shore up his military forces and economy against sanctions for the future, when he just invades again.

[PhaelixWW]

There needs to be an exception for Ukraine given if any country needs NATO membership right now, it's Ukraine. Putler can't be trusted in the slightest; he will break any peace agreements with Ukraine and invade again the instant he thinks he has rebuilt his military from the laughing stock it is now.

His mouthpieces in the Russian state news calling for the genocide of Ukraine is proof of that.

Again, it doesn't really work that way.

NATO isn't a protection agency, it's a mutual defense pact. That means that there are requirements for the ability to provide military help, etc. to other member countries. Ukraine simply isn't going to be in a place to meet those requirements for a long time, unfortunately. Furthermore, acceptance is by unanimous agreement only, and getting every single NATO country to say "yes, we're willing to not just send aid to Ukraine, but put boots on the ground and declare war on any invader" is rather doubtful right now.

Ukraine was before, and almost certainly will again, get assistance from NATO to help them progress towards membership criteria. But EU membership is the more appropriate short-term goal.

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I think the hesitancy is the notion that, were Ukraine at a time of war to be inducted into NATO, it would immediately place NATO at war.

It's expressly against membership admission rules. You cannot join NATO if you are in a state of conflict.

Basically, Ukraine needs to affect some kind of ceasefire, and THEN join NATO. Like, at the jump, before Russia can decide they want to re-invade.

They'd have to sever ties to occupied Donbas and Crimea officially, too.

But that ignores the other reasons why NATO membership just isn't on the table now.

[Iliena]

So how many convicts do we figure Putler conscripted from Russian prisons due to the ever growing pile of evidence we have of Russian conscripts committing horrific war crimes in Ukraine? Or would 'Special Operation Crimes' be more acceptable for our resident Putleristas?

The little sympathy I had for the Russian troops sent into for what they though was either a training or peace keeping mission has gone, I would now be quite happy if they lost all the remaining troops in Ukraine fuck em all!

The UN really needs to look at how to better deal with rogue states, especially allowing them to veto resolutions when they are the fucking issue!

[Kallisto]

There needs to be an exception for Ukraine given if any country needs NATO membership right now, it's Ukraine. Putler can't be trusted in the slightest; he will break any peace agreements with Ukraine and invade again the instant he thinks he has rebuilt his military from the laughing stock it is now.

His mouthpieces in the Russian state news calling for the genocide of Ukraine is proof of that.

The thing is, Putin can't turn around the Russian military from being a laughing stock. The issues with the Russian military are inherent from the ground up and will need such a long time to even begin to fix that frankly most of us will be his age before it's even fixed.

Russian military doctrine is based on 3 things.
A) Army follows a tactical nuclear barrage
B) Summer farmers
C) Pacify satellite states with local support.

For A to happen it would mean it would have to go to war with NATO, for all of the yellings from Moscow it does not want a war with NATO in the slightest because it will lose heavily in a conventional sense, we all lose if it stops being conventional. B Isn't happening right now because it's not summer and C was the plan, but Ukraine had other ideas.

For the Russian military to not be a joke, it would need to rip up the doctrines above. But that is just point A. It also needs Putin to basically fire all of his generals because they're nothing but yes men and corrupt officials. Essentially they told Putin what he wants to hear, while at the same time siphoning money and selling off equipment for themselves.

Putin would then need to bring in people that would tell him what he needs to hear, not what he wants to hear. At the same time, these people need to be experts in modern warfare to rebuild the military. Now I'm looking at Russia and seeing basically a complete lack of personnel in that regard. While at the same time looking outside of Russia the experts he needs seem to all be living within a certain defensive alliance. There's no way they're going to go to Putin to help modernize.

But this also leads to a problem for Putin. He will never trust a military that isn't full of yes men and is not a joke. Why? Because frankly they'd be the first in his mind to take him to a window with special tea that makes you lose your balance and have a great fall. His paranoia will not allow for it. So while Putin is in power the military will remain a joke.

This also doesn't bring in the fact that for Russia to actually build most of its military equipment it needs resources it does not have. A lot of which comes from countries that have sanctioned it to hell and back. It can't build more tanks, it likely is having issues building military helicopters and other aircraft to replenish what it has lost. Russian military issues won't go away within Putin's lifetime. If sanctions are removed, they won't be removed overnight. So reequipping and rebuilding is going to take time. Doctrine issues are going to take decades since they're too well built-in and Putin will need to not be paranoid about the military removing him and having independence.

Meanwhile any cease-fire (since I don't think an out and out peace treaty will be possible for a long time) even one that has Dombass gone for now will help Ukraine a lot more. Even if there's Swedish style neutrality (No to NATO, Yes to EU), Ukraine is almost certainly going to be a new Switzerland in that case even with the "Disarmed" clause which isn't really disarmed. Where even if an open secret, every Ukrainian house is going to be unofficially armed, the military will be more modern and essentially every Ukrainian is going to be ready for a new attempt from Russia. Which likely didn't learn from this war because of problems within Russia itself.

[Mihalik]

Well....Bucha was bad.

It looks like Mariupol is going to be way worse.



Russians are now herding people into "filtration camps".

[Zaydin]

No need to really draw conclusions like that. Russian forces conscripted from normal conditions are more than capable enough of this already. Esp. when they come from poorer less educated parts of russia. The attitudes in those places is like stepping back in time several decades, or more.

I dunno, he's desperate for manpower right now. Why not dangle a pardon/commutation to convicts in exchange for them serving in the military and then letting them loose in Ukraine to try and terrorize Ukraine into submission?

[Corvus]

I dunno, he's desperate for manpower right now. Why not dangle a pardon/commutation to convicts in exchange for them serving in the military and then letting them loose in Ukraine to try and terrorize Ukraine into submission?

There were reports very early on that that was happening.

[TACOshake]

"Kids, time to point and laugh at the tankie."

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

I dunno, he's desperate for manpower right now. Why not dangle a pardon/commutation to convicts in exchange for them serving in the military and then letting them loose in Ukraine to try and terrorize Ukraine into submission?

Because all the really dangerous criminals are already in his administration...

[Edge-]

"Kids, time to point and laugh at the tankie."

https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/s...30347884560386

He's already crying to Twitter Daddy, fuckin top kek.

[Breccia]

Finland spots $46 million in artwork heading for Russia and nabs it.

The enforcement of sanctions is part of our normal operations and we always direct our controls based on risks. The shipments that have now come under criminal investigation were detected as part of our customary enforcement work

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"Kids, time to point and laugh at the tankie."

Wait... They said Russia was going to invade Ukraine, occupy Kiev, install a puppet-government (named) the US and the CIA moved to Lvov and burned all their files. In fact Russia recognised two-breakaway provinces and sent troops we’ve been told for 8 years were already there...
-- Feb 22

His feed is full of, well, Russian propaganda. There's a fair number of retweets of Russian propaganda.

But what else can we find? Let's take a peek.

Ranting George Galloway blasted for pro-Russian Sputnik show as he spouts bizarre 'biological weapons factory' claim
-- March 7

Anti-independence party led by Vladimir 'Putin's court clown' George Galloway collapses
-- March 1

Mr Galloway, who was co-leader for ‘All4Unity’, was labelled Vladimir “Putin’s court clown”, an “apologist” and a “pathetic propagandist” by mainstream political parties amid condemnation of his continued appearance on the Russian controlled state-media RT.

Mr Galloway has used his platform on RT to smear Alexei Navalny, Mr Putin’s main opponent, as a white supremacist while he was recovering from an assassination attempt, and blamed the conflict in Ukraine on the West and the USA.

Oh, yeah, I see the problem. He was labeled as Russia state-run media because, well, he is.

[Deus Mortis]

https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/s...30347884560386

He's already crying to Twitter Daddy, fuckin top kek.

It's funny, I mean what does he expect is going to happen when he retweets fucking RT 3 hours ago.

[Kaleredar]

Finland spots $46 million in artwork heading for Russia and nabs it.



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Wait... They said Russia was going to invade Ukraine, occupy Kiev, install a puppet-government (named) the US and the CIA moved to Lvov and burned all their files. In fact Russia recognised two-breakaway provinces and sent troops we’ve been told for 8 years were already there...
-- Feb 22

His feed is full of, well, Russian propaganda. There's a fair number of retweets of Russian propaganda.

But what else can we find? Let's take a peek.

Ranting George Galloway blasted for pro-Russian Sputnik show as he spouts bizarre 'biological weapons factory' claim
-- March 7

Anti-independence party led by Vladimir 'Putin's court clown' George Galloway collapses
-- March 1



Oh, yeah, I see the problem. He was labeled as Russia state-run media because, well, he is.

"Putin's court clown?"

They should steal that to use to describe Trump as well.

[Elenos]

Which is why Ukraine needs to be given fast-track membership into NATO ASAP. Putler has made the word of the Russian government as worthless as the ruble.

What Ukraine needs is not what NATO needs, NATO does not need a war with Russia as has been made abundantly clear by NATO leaders.

Also joining NATO is a privilege that a country must earn through certain criteria: Every NATO member from Eastern Europe spent many years reforming, dealing with corruption etc. Ukraine has not thanks to oligarchs like Poroshenko.

Perhaps if Ukraine survives this war and Zelensky actually implements the necessary reforms, but absolutely not now. Same with Ukraine joining the EU.

So the Russians are going all-in now on the east? it seems that the north is fully cleared now. I wonder if they will renew their offensive on the north assuming they win on the east.

Assuming they take Mariupol and the LOC ( the heavily fortified front line in Eastern Ukraine from 2014 till the war started in February ) quite possibly they will work to take places like Khrakiv and Dnipro.

[postman1782]

https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/s...30347884560386

He's already crying to Twitter Daddy, fuckin top kek.

He said he wasn't affiliated. But until he took it off his bio, he was on RT and Sputnik.

https://twitter.com/Pynaert/status/1...451971/photo/1

Would be the easiest lawsuit for Twitter to win.

[Kathranis]

Instead, they will flood Eastern Ukraine with raw numbers, and hope that will be enough to win. But it won't be, because the numbers actually involved are pathetic. The Russian Federation is not the Soviet Union. The Soviets sent 500,000 troops to pacify Czechoslovakia, when it wasn't resisting. Putin sent 120,000 troops to conquer Ukraine. A few hundred thousand troops isn't going to cut it, even if he doubles down. That might seem like a large force, but spread over that area, it really isn't. It probably isn't even more then Ukraine is able to commit to the fight at this point, since Ukraine mobilized a lot more then Russia did, and there isn't really a quality difference to even that out. Meanwhile, Russia is still fighting with broken logistics, incompetent leadership, and demoralized troops. Ukraine has roughly equal numbers with frayed logistics, excellent leadership, and troops that are extremely motivated and convinced they will win.

Yeah. Russia never had the numbers necessary to occupy Ukraine. The whole exercise was hasty, stupid, and doomed to fail from the start. Even if they were following proper modern military doctrine, occupying a country as large, noncompliant, and capable as Ukraine has proven itself to be would be a collosal undertaking.


It's still hard not to compare it to the invasion of Afghanistan, where an advanced modernized coalition was stymied for two decades by fewer than 100k experienced insurgents armed mainly with civilian vehicles, Cold War era weapons, and improvised explosives.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's military is over 100k strong and trained by the West and armed with some of the most modern vehicles and weapon systems available, further bolstered by volunteers and foreign intelligence. And Russia's invasion force is inexperienced, undisciplined, plagued by logistical issues and poor communication, and likely economically unsustainable.

The power imbalance is so much less extreme, to the extent that Russia almost looks like the underdogs. Seriously, the only real advantage Russia has is a vast surplus of materiel, which has been rendered mostly ineffective due to dogshit logistics. They can bombard cities, but it doesn't really get them any closer to achieving their goals; if anything, it emboldens the Ukrainian resistance.