Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

Was there anyone in overall command before?

Because one of the thing that western analysts were saying was that they just couldn't see any overall command. Basically each direction they were attacking from was acting basically independently, competing for resources and reserves etc, and even within the different avenues of advance there was not much communication between the various branches themselves, which is why we rarely ever seen any combined arms operations from the Russians.

That's what I thought -and read- too, but that would mean that previously this entire operation would have been conducted by Putin personally, him being the supreme commander of the army by virtue of him being the president? I wonder why he's giving control away.

[Kaleredar]

That's what I thought -and read- too, but that would mean that previously this entire operation would have been conducted by Putin personally, him being the supreme commander of the army by virtue of him being the president? I wonder why he's giving control away.

I'm going to guess it's because he thought "invade Ukraine, they'll come begging at our door within a week" was satisfactory direction and when that failed and he didn't have any plans beyond that.

At this point maybe he's realized that perhaps that wasn't satisfactory direction and might actually need someone who knows how to command soldiers in charge of the military.

[Iphie]

I'm going to guess it's because he thought "invade Ukraine, they'll come begging at our door within a week" was satisfactory direction and when that failed and he didn't have any plans beyond that.

At this point maybe he's realized that perhaps that wasn't satisfactory direction and might actually need someone who knows how to command soldiers in charge of the military.

Plausible, other thoughts I had it allows him to, however slightly, create distance between himself and the war. He can scapegoat the new commander and, this is slightly out there but not impossible, he establishes a line of succession (or chain of command if you will) should something happen to himself. (disclaimer: not advocating for violence towards him, I'm talking natural causes.)

[Vakna]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FP96XeeX...jpg&name=large

So much for the "it's Putin not the Russians" theory.

[Draco-Onis]

Easo absolutely DID make that point. He was relatively subtle about it, in the sense that he simply downplayed or hand-waved any reported Ukrainian successes, while talking up the Russian position. He was coming at it from a point of view of Russian superiority making it inevitable that Ukraine would lose. Hell, I'm pretty sure he even talked about what Ukraine would need to give up to get peace, but I'd have to check back to make sure I've not misremembered that.

So yes, if there was "misinterpretation" taking place, it was happening to a whole bunch of people all thinking exactly the same thing about Easo's position. If that's happening, either you're failing badly at communicating what you mean, or you are trying to gaslight readers into believing that's not what you meant. Nothing farcical about calling that out, especially when his posting technique allows him to avoid the bans that get the obvious ones like Shalcker.

Anyone who doesn't tow the party line and says that Ukraine may have to give up something or compromise has been labeled by many in this thread as a Putanista. Me and him have disagreed on everything since he is a long time pro Israel poster, his point was never that Ukraine should give up. He can be critique for not believing Ukraine's reports as much as Russia but I never got the point you got out of his posts.

It's not unreasonable to think Ukraine's lost would be inevitable, it was the stance of US intelligence for weeks. They have only changed it to maybe they can hold out and this can be like Afghanistan which isn't a lovely prospect.

[Muzjhath]

Anyone who doesn't tow the party line and says that Ukraine may have to give up something or compromise has been labeled by many in this thread as a Putanista. Me and him have disagreed on everything since he is a long time pro Israel poster, his point was never that Ukraine should give up. He can be critique for not believing Ukraine's reports as much as Russia but I never got the point you got out of his posts.

It's not unreasonable to think Ukraine's lost would be inevitable, it was the stance of US intelligence for weeks. They have only changed it to maybe they can hold out and this can be like Afghanistan which isn't a lovely prospect.

The feeling I mostly got from his posts were that Ukraine should just roll over and allow Russia to do whatever they wanted as fait accompli. Which is why he got the reaction he has.

Maybe that wasn't what he wanted to communicate, but that's how it read with how gas-lighty he was about everything.

[Makabreska]

The feeling I mostly got from his posts were that Ukraine should just roll over and allow Russia to do whatever they wanted as fait accompli. Which is why he got the reaction he has.

Maybe that wasn't what he wanted to communicate, but that's how it read with how gas-lighty he was about everything.

Plus his super annoying, "better than you" (because he follows some superior info source or w/e) approach to anyone who questioned him, calling every Ukraine-positive news or Russian atrocities as "memes".

[Corvus]

Given Russia's already existing morale, manpower and logistics problems, I'm not sure appointing an overall commander at this stage will have much of an effect. And throwing their mauled army at targets in an attempt to win a 'victory' for May 7th could backfire.

That the new commander was successful in Syria also doesn't mean a lot. Those were two vastly different wars. In Syria the Russians were mostly using airpower to indiscriminately bomb cities while fighting lightly armed militias. They are still doing the indiscriminate bombing, but they are also using large numbers of ground forces, which they didn't have in Syria and fighting a modern, western trained and experienced army with equipment with heavy weaponry.

[Grimbold21]

You know who would've been fun to see in this thread?

That dude from the Netherlands that was so anti-West.

Kangodo or smth...

[jonnysensible]

manpower and logistics problems,,

you cant have logistic problems if all your men are killed

[Slant]

Yes. Even as a person rooting for full Ukrainian victory and admission of my city into EU, I'll be the first to say no cheating. Ukraine needs to actually fulfill all criteria. Luckily Europeans can give advice on how to, and (I hope) this time Ukrainians are willing to do the work required for that.

As I said, if you guys put in half the work that you put in defending your country, I have no doubt that Ukraine will be a shining example that Russia could learn from. You know, after the utter collapse of their economy and the hard reset of their country... As much as we absolutely hate Russia right now, I hope you guys have a big enough heart to help Russians when that day comes. They will need your help, cos fuckit, nobody else on this planet is going to touch that shithole for generations.

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So, things on the social media front are calming down as the Ukrainian military restricts information (as a proper military should). But today things are picking up in the East and I'm reading this: https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/stat...rJ9cKFwCA&s=19

Like, literally Russians went "Uh, so... let's do another convoy, shall we?" and apparently Ukrainians went like "Are they for real? Get St. Javelin..." and destroyed the convoy before I had time to read all the jokes the internet made...

Is that true? Anyone got confirmation of this?

[Breccia]

Was there anyone in overall command before?

Based on that article, no.

- - - Updated - - -

you cant have logistic problems if all your men are killed

I'd argue 100% the reverse, actually.

- - - Updated - - -

So much for the "it's Putin not the Russians" theory.

One, while Levada-Center at least seems less state-run than most, I don't trust any Russian poll that dares to go public.

Two, that poll ends Feb and, gosh, kind of a lot's changed.

[Canpinter]

As I said, if you guys put in half the work that you put in defending your country, I have no doubt that Ukraine will be a shining example that Russia could learn from. You know, after the utter collapse of their economy and the hard reset of their country... As much as we absolutely hate Russia right now, I hope you guys have a big enough heart to help Russians when that day comes. They will need your help, cos fuckit, nobody else on this planet is going to touch that shithole for generations.

- - - Updated - - -

So, things on the social media front are calming down as the Ukrainian military restricts information (as a proper military should). But today things are picking up in the East and I'm reading this: https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/stat...rJ9cKFwCA&s=19

Like, literally Russians went "Uh, so... let's do another convoy, shall we?" and apparently Ukrainians went like "Are they for real? Get St. Javelin..." and destroyed the convoy before I had time to read all the jokes the internet made...

Is that true? Anyone got confirmation of this?

Seems unlikely to be able to destroy an entire convoy unless they have significant ground forces in the area.

The entire point of sending supply's and men in large convoys is you limit how many of your transports the enemy has time to shoot as they move, it's essentially the same concept large herd animals use to minimize predictors effectiveness.

Hopefully tho the Ukrainians managed to inflict significant enought losses on it.

[Iphie]

So, things on the social media front are calming down as the Ukrainian military restricts information (as a proper military should). But today things are picking up in the East and I'm reading this: https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/stat...rJ9cKFwCA&s=19

Like, literally Russians went "Uh, so... let's do another convoy, shall we?" and apparently Ukrainians went like "Are they for real? Get St. Javelin..." and destroyed the convoy before I had time to read all the jokes the internet made...

Is that true? Anyone got confirmation of this?

It appears to be another one from the one near Kharkiv (near, 100 km away, but still). No confirmation seen yet though, even though that map is usually pretty accurate.

[Makabreska]

One, while Levada-Center at least seems less state-run than most, I don't trust any Russian poll that dares to go public.

Two, that poll ends Feb and, gosh, kind of a lot's changed.

Well, Levada was painted by Kremlin as a "western puppet" or w/e.

But here is the thing with Russian polls. An unknown number calls you and asks about your opinion. How will you answer, knowing that opposing Putler and the war means fines or jail time?

[Breccia]

But here is the thing with Russian polls. An unknown number calls you and asks about your opinions. How will you answer, knowing that opposing Putler and the war means fines or jail time?

The upswing at the start of the war was exactly what Putin was hoping for. It's why he did it in the first place. Regardless of what the poll says, we know the same effect didn't work here. One, he hasn't won yet. Two, there's significant backlash that's affecting the Russian way of life.

A leader who has to shut down banks and stock markets so you can't get your own money out doesn't get a fair 90% poll result.

[Poopymonster]

Seems unlikely to be able to destroy an entire convoy unless they have significant ground forces in the area.

The entire point of sending supply's and men in large convoys is you limit how many of your transports the enemy has time to shoot as they move, it's essentially the same concept large herd animals use to minimize predictors effectiveness.

Hopefully tho the Ukrainians managed to inflict significant enought losses on it.

If the previous large gatherings of vehicles has been any indication. You take out the front few to stop forward movement, a few in the back to prevent backing up/turn around, you've made a nice shooting gallery. Unlikely to destroy it all? Of course. Brought it to a standstill and have a window of opportunity to shoot vehicles in a nice line? Sounds like a good time.

[Canpinter]

If the previous large gatherings of vehicles has been any indication. You take out the front few to stop forward movement, a few in the back to prevent backing up/turn around, you've made a nice shooting gallery. Unlikely to destroy it all? Of course. Brought it to a standstill and have a window of opportunity to shoot vehicles in a nice line? Sounds like a good time.

I admit I'm presuming they are not dumb enough to do this along one lane roads with no ability to drive off road and go around small obstructions.

[Poopymonster]

I admit I'm presuming they are not dumb enough to do this along one lane roads with no ability to drive off road and go around small obstructions.

Ground is still bog-like over there. Off road most likely isn't an option still.

[Slant]

Seems unlikely to be able to destroy an entire convoy unless they have significant ground forces in the area.

The entire point of sending supply's and men in large convoys is you limit how many of your transports the enemy has time to shoot as they move, it's essentially the same concept large herd animals use to minimize predictors effectiveness.

Hopefully tho the Ukrainians managed to inflict significant enought losses on it.

I mean, they did it to the first convoy that was longer...