Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shalcker]

Yeah...three days...any day now? Going on three months...
Maybe within 3 years from now?

Zelensky's advisor Arestovych (same one who in 2019 said "price of joining NATO [for Ukraine] will be full-scale war with Russia") says it'll be 13 years (and suggests for everyone who is not ready to fight that long to leave the Ukraine)

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/st...15790066237447

[Gaidax]

Wanna bet that Russia will keep Crimea and that corridor ? And even maybe Dombass as a bonus ? That is how reality works.

That will most likely going to be an outcome plus minus.

A very pitiful return for the all the effort and damage Russia took. Their initial Crimea bid was a master class, but this was a complete disaster.

I'm not even sure Russia will be able to hold much aside from Crimea long term, because eventually down the road Russia still would want to settle and go for another "reset".

The real question is how long Putin will manage to keep the throne, before getting bumped off. I'd say 2-3 years give or take. Right now he rides popular support (adrenaline, patriotism and nationalism intoxication pumping), but this will wear off the more time passes and the magnitude of failure sinks in with the public. His big key to power supporters are not really interested in being international pariahs, even with all the loopholes.

I do think EU is still too meek, it could do more for sure. But I do think their hand will be forced once it sinks in that Bucha was merely a teaser to what Russia did in other, bigger cities like Mariupol.

[Shalcker]

In other news, probably directly related to Russia's upcoming voluntary default, the ruble fell. Again.

Of course it will drop today because that's the CBR intent with 3% rate drop to keep it within trading band that reflects CBR objectives.

It was strengthening too much.

We're trading rouble strength for more growth with rate drops as situation develops.


And i went to check RUBUSD graph - and it clearly shows even from your source rouble getting to 79.75 per dollar on April 7th while on February 23th (pre-war) it was at 81.41

So even your source agrees with me.

- - - Updated - - -

The stock sale ban was supposed to end on the first, according to their initial announcement. I didn't see any news about that actually occurring or not though, and that article is claiming the opposite, so I'm curious what's really going on. According to moex's history, it certainly doesn't seem like anything happened on the first like you'd have seen if they relaxed those restrictions, but I'm not an expert.

There are no relaxing of trading for foreign entities from unfriendly countries.

Russian business TV channel had joke in one of programs "Well, maybe they'll be allowed to exit if they'll wait... 5-10 years. - Oh, so you're an optimist!"

- - - Updated - - -

The real question is how long Putin will manage to keep the throne, before getting bumped off. I'd say 2-3 years give or take. Right now he rides popular support (adrenaline, patriotism and nationalism intoxication pumping), but this will wear off the more time passes and the magnitude of failure sinks in with the public.

Same thing is true for EU however. Protests over fertilizer and energy prices are growing (with the rest of inflation rapidly catching up) and scale of failure is yet to sink in.

Europe now spends almost 10% of GDP on energy
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/statu...91197231865856

[Breccia]

It was strengthening too much.

Did not improve above pre-war levels. This is a lie, and a laughable one. You are lying.

So even your source agrees with me.

It does not. Putin ordered the invasion Feb 21, the sanctions slammed down like an iron curtain, and the ruble's clifflike plummet started then. Even Anton Chekov couldn't pick enough cherries for you to defend that one.

Nothing objective backs you up. Stop lying to us.

[Finlandia WOAT]

Hold off for how long? What is your estimate?

Everyone said that what was deployed near Kiev wasn't enough to take it through street battles.
Maybe it was a distraction to freeze Ukrainian reinforcements from coming to Mariupol/Donbass as Ritter proposes.
.

Yeah, Russian paratroopers landing at Hostomel Airport an hour after war was declared in an attempt to pave the way for army transport aircraft was a "distraction". All those VDV units that were annihilated after a month of fighting for Hostomel was for fun. That 40 mile supply convoy? A ruse.

This is pure copium. Russia was trying to take Kyiv quickly. They ultimately couldn't even surround it before they were beaten back and had to retreat and move toward more achievable war aims.

And Ritter claims Bucha was staged. His evidence? There's a 24-36 hour delay between when Ukrainian forces liberated Bucha and when the Ukrainian government started releasing press material. Also there's a 3 minute clip of the mayor of Bucha after being liberated in which he does not mention the atrocities.

Brilliant stuff, really. I mean, I'd you're like me and can really appreciate the mental gymnastics of the useful idiots.

[Shalcker]

Did not improve above pre-war levels. This is a lie, and a laughable one. You are lying.

Your pet broker doesn't even show volume of trades. Could be trading one rouble between them.

All that matters to Russians - and all that CBR controls - is Russian FX exchange.

And there image is clear:

2022-04-08 75.6269

2022-02-25 83.0635
2022-02-24 87.272
2022-02-23 80.7037
2022-02-22 79.2177
2022-02-21 79.2283
2022-02-18 76.8318
2022-02-17 76.2795

It does not. Putin ordered the invasion Feb 21, the sanctions slammed down like an iron curtain, and the ruble's clifflike plummet started then. Even Anton Chekov couldn't pick enough cherries for you to defend that one.

Sanctions were set on weekend - 26th, once scale of invasion was fully understood; that is why noone managed to escape Russia with their money since CBR had time to issue commands to brokers/banks and enact capital controls in response.

[Breccia]

Your pet broker doesn't even show volume of trades. Could be trading one rouble between them.

All that matters to Russians - and all that CBR controls - is Russian FX exchange.

And like that, you admit you have no defense. I can't think of anything that screams "my currency is worthless" than "only Russians wanted it and they only wanted one".

Man, nothing is less satisfying than an enemy that ringouts himself.

[Shalcker]

Your military is laughable

So does yours. 20 years in Afghanistan and nothing to show for it.

[Belize]

You need to understand how miserable situation is to understand full gravity of it; "We're already winning" is very counterproductive Western cope.

Lmao, cope harder about being a """Superpower""" who's ass is being absolutely kicked by a couple guys with farming equipment. The Russian army is a group of outdated losers, and corrupt leadership who's only skill is being capped from a distance at a higher rate than any other military.

[Xyonai]

So does yours. 20 years in Afghanistan and nothing to show for it.

I don't think this is the sick burn you think it is when Russia also got its shit kicked in by a bunch of Afghani insurgents. So at least the US didn't immediately collapse after pulling out, and only suffered a fraction of the fatalities despite being there for far, far longer.

[Specialka]

So does yours. 20 years in Afghanistan and nothing to show for it.

And Afghanistan is, last time I checked, not next to USA.

[uuuhname]

So does yours. 20 years in Afghanistan and nothing to show for it.

ya'll were in there first ones to experience that, you'd think that would have been a lesson for you.

[Jastall]

So does yours. 20 years in Afghanistan and nothing to show for it.

Yeah, because Russia never went there only to get forced back as well. At least America didn't collapse from the costs of the invasion.

Got any more of those glorious self-owns?

[Edge-]

So does yours. 20 years in Afghanistan and nothing to show for it.

Didn't the Russian military do that first?

And also, this is a hilariously bad example. Russia is fighting a straight up military conflict, not combating an insurgency.

[Xyonai]

Anyway, in conclusion: The Russian Army's showing in Ukraine doesn't lend confidence to the idea that they can pull off a successful occupation, or even a decisive military victory. Best they can really hope for right now is taking chunks in the east and hoping their Economy doesn't collapse in on itself before they're able to permanently secure those areas; then cross their fingers that they can wiggle out of sanctions enough to not make those new territories functionally money holes.

[Canpinter]

It's kinda important to remember that the us failure in Afghanistan was a failure in nation building, not military capabilities.

[uuuhname]

It's kinda important to remember that the us failure in Afghanistan was a failure in nation building, not military capabilities.

no, no no don't even pretend like the failures in Afghanistan was a lack of will power or planning. it was always going to end the way it did, stop fooling yourself.

[DarkTZeratul]

no, no no don't even pretend like the failures in Afghanistan was a lack of will power or planning. it was always going to end the way it did, stop fooling yourself.

Either way, his point is that we didn't fail because our army sucked; it was the political objectives that failed.

Whereas in Ukraine, it's the failure of the Russian military that's clearly evident to the world.

[Iliena]

Shalcker you do remind me of Baghdad Bob:



We could do with a cute name for you, Moscow Mitch is already taken, how about Moscow Mule or Mikheil?

[uuuhname]

Either way, his point is that we didn't fail because our army sucked; it was the political objectives that failed.

Whereas in Ukraine, it's the failure of the Russian military that's clearly evident to the world.

*sigh* the take away should be a full scale military invasion of an entire country/region is never going to work out in the long term for the occupiers. unless you have genuine support from the local population OR, OR, do a genocide against them. regardless of who is doing it.