1. #16081
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    It's also artificially propped up beyond belief.
    Indeed. Remember that time Ivanka Trump bid on her own auction? This is the same deplorable idea. Anyone can make up a price by selling an item to themselves. The fact that nobody else is buying, that's the real lesson here.

    What you're describing is in this Fortune article from 2 days ago.

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday that Russian "manipulation" was the main cause of the ruble's recent rebound after the Russian government restricted its citizens from transferring money abroad.

    "People are being prevented from unloading rubles. That's artificially propping up the value. That's not sustainable. So I think you're going to see that change," Blinken said, adding that he is working every day to tighten sanctions and close loopholes that have allowed the ruble to appreciate.

    From raising its benchmark interest rate to forcing exporters to swap 80% of their foreign currency revenues for rubles, Russia's central bank has done everything it can to prop up the rubles' value since the Ukraine invasion began, but it's more than just manipulation that's supporting the currency's value.
    So yeah, it's easier to say "people aren't dumping rubles" when you just flat out refuse to let that happen. That we knew. This is new.

    On March 25, Russia also began buying gold from banks at a fixed price of 5,000 rubles (roughly $61) per 1 gram.

    Mihailov said the move effectively created a gold-based exchange rate of 81 rubles to $1 and helped to support the currency for a time. To his knowledge, the move also represented the first time a nation's currency has been expressed in "gold parity" since Switzerland decided to end a similar policy in 1999.

    "I think the link between the ruble and gold is intended to transfer strength and credibility from gold, which is a symbol of stability," Mihailov said. "People still have this nostalgia to the gold standard…they perceive money as being tied down to gold, so it can't inflate."

    Mihailov noted that the problem for Russia, if it enacts "gold parity," is that it will also be forced to exchange rubles for gold at the 5,000 rubles per 1 gram price. If it does that, it could end up in a difficult situation where investors rush to withdraw gold from the central bank, leading to extreme destabilization in the country's financial system.

    Perhaps because of this, Russia reneged on its move to buy gold at a fixed rate on Thursday, citing a "significant change in market conditions."
    Yep, Russia is desperate to stabilize the ruble, but doing so has put them in an intentionally weaker position. One similar to the bonds thing, people asking for their money back and Russia saying "we can't afford to do that". Except it'll be Russians getting screwed, since foreigners both can't and won't use the Russian central bank.

    Let's pretend that, for example, the value of the ruble were to drop 10%. That's easy to imagine, it dropped 5% today. By tying the exchange rates, Russian can go to the bank with 5,000 lower-value rubles and demand to buy the gold. Which means Russia loses all their gold, and at 10% lower than their current value. Obviously, nobody expects Russia to honor these obligations -- they've already proven willing to flat-out change the rules to be in their favor.

    Finally, in response to Western sanctions, Russia has imposed restrictions on the movement of funds to "unfriendly" countries, banned the sale of Russian stocks by foreign investors, and prevented citizens from exchanging rubles for foreign currencies.

    These strict capital controls have left experts feeling skeptical about currency markets' ability to effectively price the ruble, especially because there is no longer significant foreign exchange trading volume.

    "It's a completely artificial level and so very little credence should be given to it," Cristian Maggio, the head of portfolio strategy at Toronto Dominion Bank in London, told Bloomberg on Thursday. "Almost no one can trade the ruble and those who really do, they trade at very different levels than what the screens report."

    Russian capital controls have led trading volumes to plummet to their lowest level in over a decade, Bloomberg reported.

    Aaron Schwartzbaum, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a non-partisan Philadelphia-based think tank, pointed to the rapid drop in trading volumes for the ruble in a tweet last week arguing, "the ruble to dollar rate is not a reliable indicator of how sanctions are impacting Russia."
    It's a garbage currency. Nobody wants it -- because of exactly what we've seen and you've described. Russia will just cheat again. But as listed above, they can't cheat forever. Exports are drying up (can't even sell $30 oil to China), EUrope is already finding ways to cut down on gas, their gold is finite, and they're about to take a hit to their credit rating so they can't borrow anything.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Hey, when was the last time we checked on MOEX?



    Ouch. Not great. Down 10% this week alone.

  2. #16082
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Hey, when was the last time we checked on MOEX?
    The fortune article you linked said:

    Finally, in response to Western sanctions, Russia has imposed restrictions on the movement of funds to "unfriendly" countries, banned the sale of Russian stocks by foreign investors, and prevented citizens from exchanging rubles for foreign currencies.
    The stock sale ban was supposed to end on the first, according to their initial announcement. I didn't see any news about that actually occurring or not though, and that article is claiming the opposite, so I'm curious what's really going on. According to moex's history, it certainly doesn't seem like anything happened on the first like you'd have seen if they relaxed those restrictions, but I'm not an expert.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rudol Von Stroheim View Post
    I do not need to play the role of "holier than thou". I'm above that..

  3. #16083
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowferal View Post
    Yeah...three days...any day now? Going on three months...
    Maybe within 3 years from now?
    Zelensky's advisor Arestovych (same one who in 2019 said "price of joining NATO [for Ukraine] will be full-scale war with Russia") says it'll be 13 years (and suggests for everyone who is not ready to fight that long to leave the Ukraine)

    https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/st...15790066237447

  4. #16084
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    Wanna bet that Russia will keep Crimea and that corridor ? And even maybe Dombass as a bonus ? That is how reality works.
    That will most likely going to be an outcome plus minus.

    A very pitiful return for the all the effort and damage Russia took. Their initial Crimea bid was a master class, but this was a complete disaster.

    I'm not even sure Russia will be able to hold much aside from Crimea long term, because eventually down the road Russia still would want to settle and go for another "reset".

    The real question is how long Putin will manage to keep the throne, before getting bumped off. I'd say 2-3 years give or take. Right now he rides popular support (adrenaline, patriotism and nationalism intoxication pumping), but this will wear off the more time passes and the magnitude of failure sinks in with the public. His big key to power supporters are not really interested in being international pariahs, even with all the loopholes.

    I do think EU is still too meek, it could do more for sure. But I do think their hand will be forced once it sinks in that Bucha was merely a teaser to what Russia did in other, bigger cities like Mariupol.
    Last edited by Gaidax; 2022-04-11 at 06:47 PM.

  5. #16085
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    In other news, probably directly related to Russia's upcoming voluntary default, the ruble fell. Again.

    Of course it will drop today because that's the CBR intent with 3% rate drop to keep it within trading band that reflects CBR objectives.

    It was strengthening too much.

    We're trading rouble strength for more growth with rate drops as situation develops.


    And i went to check RUBUSD graph - and it clearly shows even from your source rouble getting to 79.75 per dollar on April 7th while on February 23th (pre-war) it was at 81.41

    So even your source agrees with me.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Ripster42 View Post
    The stock sale ban was supposed to end on the first, according to their initial announcement. I didn't see any news about that actually occurring or not though, and that article is claiming the opposite, so I'm curious what's really going on. According to moex's history, it certainly doesn't seem like anything happened on the first like you'd have seen if they relaxed those restrictions, but I'm not an expert.
    There are no relaxing of trading for foreign entities from unfriendly countries.

    Russian business TV channel had joke in one of programs "Well, maybe they'll be allowed to exit if they'll wait... 5-10 years. - Oh, so you're an optimist!"

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    The real question is how long Putin will manage to keep the throne, before getting bumped off. I'd say 2-3 years give or take. Right now he rides popular support (adrenaline, patriotism and nationalism intoxication pumping), but this will wear off the more time passes and the magnitude of failure sinks in with the public.
    Same thing is true for EU however. Protests over fertilizer and energy prices are growing (with the rest of inflation rapidly catching up) and scale of failure is yet to sink in.

    Europe now spends almost 10% of GDP on energy
    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/statu...91197231865856
    Last edited by Shalcker; 2022-04-11 at 07:22 PM.

  6. #16086
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    It was strengthening too much.
    Did not improve above pre-war levels. This is a lie, and a laughable one. You are lying.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    So even your source agrees with me.
    It does not. Putin ordered the invasion Feb 21, the sanctions slammed down like an iron curtain, and the ruble's clifflike plummet started then. Even Anton Chekov couldn't pick enough cherries for you to defend that one.

    Nothing objective backs you up. Stop lying to us.

  7. #16087
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Hold off for how long? What is your estimate?

    Everyone said that what was deployed near Kiev wasn't enough to take it through street battles.
    Maybe it was a distraction to freeze Ukrainian reinforcements from coming to Mariupol/Donbass as Ritter proposes.
    .
    Yeah, Russian paratroopers landing at Hostomel Airport an hour after war was declared in an attempt to pave the way for army transport aircraft was a "distraction". All those VDV units that were annihilated after a month of fighting for Hostomel was for fun. That 40 mile supply convoy? A ruse.

    This is pure copium. Russia was trying to take Kyiv quickly. They ultimately couldn't even surround it before they were beaten back and had to retreat and move toward more achievable war aims.

    And Ritter claims Bucha was staged. His evidence? There's a 24-36 hour delay between when Ukrainian forces liberated Bucha and when the Ukrainian government started releasing press material. Also there's a 3 minute clip of the mayor of Bucha after being liberated in which he does not mention the atrocities.

    Brilliant stuff, really. I mean, I'd you're like me and can really appreciate the mental gymnastics of the useful idiots.
    Last edited by Finlandia WOAT; 2022-04-11 at 09:36 PM.

  8. #16088
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Did not improve above pre-war levels. This is a lie, and a laughable one. You are lying.
    Your pet broker doesn't even show volume of trades. Could be trading one rouble between them.

    All that matters to Russians - and all that CBR controls - is Russian FX exchange.

    And there image is clear:

    2022-04-08 75.6269

    2022-02-25 83.0635
    2022-02-24 87.272
    2022-02-23 80.7037
    2022-02-22 79.2177
    2022-02-21 79.2283
    2022-02-18 76.8318
    2022-02-17 76.2795



    It does not. Putin ordered the invasion Feb 21, the sanctions slammed down like an iron curtain, and the ruble's clifflike plummet started then. Even Anton Chekov couldn't pick enough cherries for you to defend that one.
    Sanctions were set on weekend - 26th, once scale of invasion was fully understood; that is why noone managed to escape Russia with their money since CBR had time to issue commands to brokers/banks and enact capital controls in response.

  9. #16089
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Your pet broker doesn't even show volume of trades. Could be trading one rouble between them.

    All that matters to Russians - and all that CBR controls - is Russian FX exchange.
    And like that, you admit you have no defense. I can't think of anything that screams "my currency is worthless" than "only Russians wanted it and they only wanted one".

    Man, nothing is less satisfying than an enemy that ringouts himself.

  10. #16090
    Quote Originally Posted by matheney2k View Post
    Your military is laughable
    So does yours. 20 years in Afghanistan and nothing to show for it.

  11. #16091
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    You need to understand how miserable situation is to understand full gravity of it; "We're already winning" is very counterproductive Western cope.
    Lmao, cope harder about being a """Superpower""" who's ass is being absolutely kicked by a couple guys with farming equipment. The Russian army is a group of outdated losers, and corrupt leadership who's only skill is being capped from a distance at a higher rate than any other military.

  12. #16092
    The Lightbringer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    So does yours. 20 years in Afghanistan and nothing to show for it.
    I don't think this is the sick burn you think it is when Russia also got its shit kicked in by a bunch of Afghani insurgents. So at least the US didn't immediately collapse after pulling out, and only suffered a fraction of the fatalities despite being there for far, far longer.

  13. #16093
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    So does yours. 20 years in Afghanistan and nothing to show for it.
    And Afghanistan is, last time I checked, not next to USA.

  14. #16094
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    So does yours. 20 years in Afghanistan and nothing to show for it.
    ya'll were in there first ones to experience that, you'd think that would have been a lesson for you.

  15. #16095
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    So does yours. 20 years in Afghanistan and nothing to show for it.
    Yeah, because Russia never went there only to get forced back as well. At least America didn't collapse from the costs of the invasion.

    Got any more of those glorious self-owns?
    It is all that is left unsaid upon which tragedies are built -Kreia

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  16. #16096
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    So does yours. 20 years in Afghanistan and nothing to show for it.
    Didn't the Russian military do that first?

    And also, this is a hilariously bad example. Russia is fighting a straight up military conflict, not combating an insurgency.

  17. #16097
    The Lightbringer
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    Anyway, in conclusion: The Russian Army's showing in Ukraine doesn't lend confidence to the idea that they can pull off a successful occupation, or even a decisive military victory. Best they can really hope for right now is taking chunks in the east and hoping their Economy doesn't collapse in on itself before they're able to permanently secure those areas; then cross their fingers that they can wiggle out of sanctions enough to not make those new territories functionally money holes.

  18. #16098
    It's kinda important to remember that the us failure in Afghanistan was a failure in nation building, not military capabilities.

  19. #16099
    Quote Originally Posted by Canpinter View Post
    It's kinda important to remember that the us failure in Afghanistan was a failure in nation building, not military capabilities.
    no, no no don't even pretend like the failures in Afghanistan was a lack of will power or planning. it was always going to end the way it did, stop fooling yourself.

  20. #16100
    Quote Originally Posted by uuuhname View Post
    no, no no don't even pretend like the failures in Afghanistan was a lack of will power or planning. it was always going to end the way it did, stop fooling yourself.
    Either way, his point is that we didn't fail because our army sucked; it was the political objectives that failed.

    Whereas in Ukraine, it's the failure of the Russian military that's clearly evident to the world.

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