Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Azadina]

How old are you? No, there are no thousands of bodybags.
You are way into memes and stupid stereotypes than is healthy. WW2 K/D ration? 1.5:1 or less, possibly 1.3:1. I am almost 146% sure that you did not expect that.

Let's check some stats, shall we? A quick print screen and paint job from wiki. Winter war, Continuation, Eastern Front. Russia/soviet is to the right in each.



Guess what I'm seeing? I'm seeing precisely what I was saying earlier. 2-5:1 casualties for Russia. You can be impressed by Russias might all you like, I'm not. They're only good for harassing, terrorizing, but when push comes to shove, they get mopped. Nukes is their only single card.

[alkyd]

Zelensky himself has doubts about Feb. 16 so that he actually asked the West to provide evidence:

From CNN:

Asked about the possibility of a Russian invasion, the president said, "As a state, we must rely on ourselves first of all. We must rely on our military first of all. We must rely on our citizens. And we must be ready any day."

But Zelensky cast some doubt on suggestions that Russia might take military action as soon as next week, noting that intelligence on an invasion was not "100%."

"I believe that today there is too much information in the information space about deep full-scale war from Russia Federation’s side. They even say the appropriate dates," he said. "We understand all the risks, we understand that there are these risks. If you have any additional information about the 100% invasion, starting on the 16th, the Russian invasion in Ukraine, please give us this information."

[Ulmita]

Let's check some stats, shall we? A quick print screen and paint job from wiki. Winter war, Continuation, Eastern Front. Russia/soviet is to the right in each.



Guess what I'm seeing? I'm seeing precisely what I was saying earlier. 2-5:1 casualties for Russia. You can be impressed by Russias might all you like, I'm not. They're only good for harassing, terrorizing, but when push comes to shove, they get mopped. Nukes is their only single card.

How to bring down Ukraine with no soldier stepping a single meter into their soil:
-Bomb all airports (military and not) by launching barrages of cruise missiles, to pin down enemy airforce. Current capacity from just the ships gathered in black sea, amounts a bit less than 700 kalibr in a single salvo launch.
- Commence SEAD (No defending AA has managed to stop an enemy SEAD so far in the history of mankind)
- RAF goes in and takes out key infrastructure: power grid, public buildings, and highways/railways

Chaos commences, country bankrupts in a matter of weeks, government falls etc.

As you can see Russia has the capacity of folding Ukraine in pieces, without risking casualties (at least no so many as you think)

[Lanrefni]

How to bring down Ukraine with no soldier stepping a single meter into their soil:
-Bomb all airports (military and not) by launching barrages of cruise missiles, to pin down enemy airforce. Current capacity from just the ships gathered in black sea, amounts a bit less than 700 kalibr in a single salvo launch.
- Commence SEAD (No defending AA has managed to stop an enemy SEAD so far in the history of mankind)
- RAF goes in and takes out key infrastructure: power grid, public buildings, and highways/railways

Chaos commences, country bankrupts in a matter of weeks, government falls etc.

As you can see Russia has the capacity of folding Ukraine in pieces, without risking casualties (at least no so many as you think)

And Ukraine can spare a few soldiers to bomb the shit out of every pipeline Russia has thus crashing Russia's economy as well,scorched earth tactics don't work all that well in the real world.

[Ulmita]

Why have all the troops stationed in the border then, you might ask? To stop retaliation. Protected by artillery in the backlines and AA, they ensure that Ukrainian army stays inside Ukraine.

This is s hypothetical scenario ofc, just giving you a different picture than the one you have in your head (which btw sounds like a braveheart kind of battle)

- - - Updated - - -

And Ukraine can spare a few soldiers to bomb the shit out of every pipeline Russia has thus crashing Russia's economy as well,scorched earth tactics don't work all that well in the real world.

If they do that, they do a favor to Russia. NS2 gets approved asap, or there is an energy apocalypse in Europe, and without being Russia's fault

[Azadina]

How to bring down Ukraine with no soldier stepping a single meter into their soil:
-Bomb all airports (military and not) by launching barrages of cruise missiles, to pin down enemy airforce. Current capacity from just the ships gathered in black sea, amounts a bit less than 700 kalibr in a single salvo launch.
- Commence SEAD (No defending AA has managed to stop an enemy SEAD so far in the history of mankind)
- RAF goes in and takes out key infrastructure: power grid, public buildings, and highways/railways

Chaos commences, country bankrupts in a matter of weeks, government falls etc.

As you can see Russia has the capacity of folding Ukraine in pieces, without risking casualties (at least no so many as you think)

Good luck with that. You think they're going to sit still while you're attacking them unprovoked? You think everyone else is also going to look in some other direction while it's happening?

[Ulmita]

Good luck with that. You think they're going to sit still while you're attacking them unprovoked? You think everyone else is also going to look in some other direction while it's happening?

Personally, from what I've seen from our western leaders, I'd say that other from some public dramatic speeches, some sanctions (excluding swift), yes they will stay put and look at the other side.
As for your first question, are you implying that UKR will try to invade RU? I'd say, that would be a no too. If they do that, they'd loose a big part of their country, up and including Odessa (i'd guess).

[PACOX]

The psyops surrounding this whole thing are amazing. The Tom Clancy novel an ensuring movie series are going to be hits.

[Edge-]

Sorry to tell you, but he passed away.

His brand lives forever, though.

[postman1782]

it's not an unwarranted countdown considering we're in for an almost assured biblical event. There is evidently no turning back now because Putin will lose everything in life if he backs down. This is a man who needs to depict his strong man image after all. He's going to lose that and everything else if he turns tail.

Biblical? What is biblical about a murderous dictator that just wants his old empire back?

[Corvus]

the likely invasion of ukraine and taiwan

Taiwan isn't getting invaded any time soon, and certainly not at the same time as Ukraine, if anything does happen.

Did you see the size of the Russian force assembled, and how obvious it was? It will be small compared to what China will need to assemble to invade Taiwan. And that will take months to bring together and there is no chance it can remain secrets. Not even China can move hundreds of thousands of troops into staging areas, relocate hundreds of ships and many hundred planes in secret, and certainly not in a couple of days.

If Putin does go ahead, he isn't going to wait for China.

The internal Russian propaganda seems to be working though. Just 4% of Russian surveyed recently think that the situation is the fault of Russia's leaders. Most are undecided but many think it is the fault of the West and Ukraine. Doesn't help when you have people going on Russian state media saying Russia needs to invade because Ukraine is going to build concentration camps and start gassing people.

And the pro-Russian politicians and business tycoons fleeing isn't the best sign, but doesn't mean that anything is guaranteed.

Putin is going to have to make a choice soon though. You can't maintain staying on alert for long. The wear and tear on men and machines can't be sustained. So either he has to attack of stand down, his bluff called.

[Azadina]

Personally, from what I've seen from our western leaders, I'd say that other from some public dramatic speeches, some sanctions (excluding swift), yes they will stay put and look at the other side.
As for your first question, are you implying that UKR will try to invade RU? I'd say, that would be a no too. If they do that, they'd loose a big part of their country, up and including Odessa (i'd guess).

Totally. Countries neighboring Russia will just give couple speeches of condemnation when they see Russia invading one of them unprovoked. Or...You know, start gearing up for a war that inevitably comes when said hostile nation attacks another one. It may not be Ukraine that ends with Russia getting it's teeth kicked in, but it definitely is the next one.

[Jessicka]

Ok, let's think more: How many thousand body bags has Russia received back from it's army members "vacationing" "getting lost" in eastern ukraine? Plenty. It's a clear pattern what Russian troops are good at. Losing. Losing so embarrassingly, that they're never publicly recognized as having acted under orders.

Or do we look at some other conflicts? Afghanistan? WW2, Winter war, continuation war? Because damn, the Russians K/D ratio sure sucks (for them anyway, as if they ever cared).

They have nukes, and that's all they have. Anything else is lfr trash to get mopped, and they know it.

The K/D ratio means fuck all. Have you learned nothing from Korea, Nam, Afghan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia and basically every other failure of US engagement since Korea?

“We failed in our objectives utterly; but we killed more of them than we lost” is a pretty shitty scorecard to wave around.

Truth is, NATO can afford to lose far less.

[PACOX]

The K/D ratio means fuck all. Have you learned nothing from Korea, Nam, Afghan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia and basically every other failure of US engagement since Korea?

“We failed in our objectives utterly; but we killed more of them than we lost” is a pretty shitty scorecard to wave around.

Truth is, NATO can afford to lose far less.

NATO as a whole can. The US rarely faces repercussions due to geography alone. The individual countries of NATO tend to face various economic repercussions, terrorist attacks, and a huge influx of displaced refugees due actions led by the US.


I'm not saying ignore Russia or anything but it is frustrating watching the the US talk attempt to talk over and for Ukraine and the rest of Europe in this matter as if we have much to actually lose but a temporary hit in our pride. Mean Ukraine and the surrounding areas actually have to worry about actions and reactions and might not be marking to war at the same pace as the country an entire ocean away. Sometimes the US acts like the boyfriend/girlfriend who always gets their more diplomatic party into fights.

[Forogil]

His brand lives forever, though.

And with his recent books I would say that Tom Clancy books were better when not (co-)written by Tom Clancy.
(The books before crashing a plane into congress are a different story.)

[DarkAmbient]

Interfax saying some Russian troops on the border are returning to their bases after completing training

MOSCOW. Feb 15 (Interfax) - Units of Russia's Western and Southern Military Districts are heading back to base by rail and by truck at the conclusion of their training, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Tuesday.

"Units of the Southern and Western Military Districts, which have accomplished their missions, are boarding trains and trucks and will head for their garrisons later today. Some units will join military convoys and will perform self-propelled marches," Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said.

Later, the Russian Defense Ministry released a video showing Russian armored vehicles returning to base from exercises.

The video features an off-road march of tanks, as well as tanks, infantry combat vehicles and self-propelled artillery systems being loaded onto a train.

[Azadina]

The K/D ratio means fuck all. Have you learned nothing from Korea, Nam, Afghan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia and basically every other failure of US engagement since Korea?

“We failed in our objectives utterly; but we killed more of them than we lost” is a pretty shitty scorecard to wave around.

Truth is, NATO can afford to lose far less.

Learned plenty.

It shows that you can't really defeat an enemy that is near suicidal in their disregard for their peoples lives. Not without wiping out nearly all of them (not saying that should be done, just that it's pointless to even start to begin with). Those places are prime examples.

Besides, Russian and US objectives are nothing alike. Russias is the "good" old conquering more lebensraum, in which they have subjugated servant puppets. US? Well, US objective (plain simplified) is to keep it's Military Industrial Complex wheels greased, and the only way to do that, is to use the military; for war. The political theater to justify any of the given wars, is nearly always some arbitrary nonsense, or straight up nonsense like "oh look WMDs!".

[Corvus]

Interfax saying some Russian troops on the border are returning to their bases after completing training

I'd wait for independent confirmation first. That is simply repeating what the Russian MoD is saying.

[Gaidax]

Interfax saying some Russian troops on the border are returning to their bases after completing training

Interfax is a Russian news agency.

I'd wait a good while before uncorking them champagnes there. Even if it's true, it could simply be a ruse.

Even if there won't be incursion, the tension will not be relaxed anytime soon - at best you're looking into few more weeks, if not months of this simmering.

[DarkAmbient]

Of course, verify. It's being widely reported now. But what would be the purpose of such a lie anyway? Some faux de-escalation by Putin?

Meanwhile the Russian foreign ministry just said this: "February 15, 2022 will go down in history as the day Western war propaganda failed. Humiliated and destroyed without a single shot fired."