Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Grimbold21]

Are you talking about signal jamming gear, or is this something new I haven't linked yet?

Something about the K-300P Bastion Coastal Defense Missile Systems.

Not really sure about the validity of this source https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...70561447837700

Tried finding news on this, but the last article that showed a picture of that particular piece of gear was from 2016.

[AntiFascistVoter]

Umm...No not quite. There's almost no mountains here. It's just forest.

Is so bad some people started a online campaign for Norway to donate Finland their first mountain.

[Fuiking]

Is so bad some people started a online campaign for Norway to donate Finland their first mountain.

*sad dutch noises*

[Yunru]

This looks interesting:
https://www.melonbooks.co.jp/detail/...uct_id=1444432



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_of_Kyiv

Looks like Japanese gona profit a bit from propaganda.

[Shalcker]

Uhm, 8% of European imports of goods are from Russia. Large in your world means 8%? Interesting.

If those imports are right at the start of long chain of derived products, business disruptions can be immense.

No gas/oil/coal -> no chemicals, plastics, steel, fertilizer
No fertilizer -> harvest collapse
No steel/plastics -> manufacturing collapse

You get the idea.

You know what, scrap that, if we're going by oec numbers, EU imports from Russia account for 5% and exports for about 4%. Meanwhile, the EU is responsible for half of Russia's imports and exports.

Check what German industry leaders say:
One factor tends to be forgotten in the ideologically heated debate now raging in the European Union over whether to implement a total embargo of Russian gas: the repercussions on the Russian economy would be less draconian than here. Of course, 73% of Russian gas exports go to Europe, but they only make up 11% of Russia’s total exports. So the Russian economy can probably live with the consequences of a ban, while the vital gas-dependent industries of Europe, and Germany in particular, cannot. They will be forced to shut down.

That reality has led to severe warnings by leading German industries, including just last week from the chemical giant BASF and Siemens Energy. As for the head of the German Industrial Federation BDI, Siegfried Russwurm, he stated outright on March 31, despite protests, that the backbone of the German economy – its industry — would collapse in the event of an embargo.

The CEO of BASF, Martin Brudermüller, for his part told the FAS that it “could send the German economy into its most serious crisis since the end of World War II,” particularly jeopardizing the existence of medium and small sized enterprises. An “experiment” like this would be “irresponsible” he said, although most people are unaware of the consquences it would have. For instance, even if only 50% of gas deliveries were cut, the BASF factory in Ludwigshafen, which employs tens of thousands, would have to be shut down.

The CEO of Siemens Energy, Christian Bruch, confirmed to Handelsblatt (April 1) that the negative impact on Germany would be greater than the effect on Russia. In the short term, he said, the volumes now supplied by Russia cannot be replaced.

[Cynep]

Sure, and sanctions add another order of magnitude to those problems. As well as prolong everything.

Western messaging on that part is very muddled; some say "could be revoked", some say they'll stay for decades, some claim it'll all be decided on a battlefield.

Russia will have to concede something for sanctions to go away. What would be the worst scenario still acceptable to you personally, in return for sanction relief?

[YUPPIE]

This looks interesting:
https://www.melonbooks.co.jp/detail/...uct_id=1444432



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_of_Kyiv

Looks like Japanese gona profit a bit from propaganda.

real life is NOT a cartoon or comic book

[Pann]

Building new LNG terminals and pipelines to Asia is only a matter of time too.

We'll be in exact same spot with both sides paying more for logistics and ultimate benefits going to China. There will be no death of Russian economy.

Are they now?

The Russian economy is predicted to contract between 8.5% and 15% this year alone, it has defaulted on its debt, inflation is running at over 16% and is becoming more and more toxic for other nations to deal with, even those that sense an opportunity are wary of being caught up in Western sanctions. It is not going to get better. This war has wiped out the progress of the last 30 years and here you are cheerleading.

The problem is West already underinvested into fossil energy way ahead of the curve of "sustainable sources" introduction. And now you want to cut Russia.

Even with Russia you'll already enter energy crunch this decade - price increases in 2021 were sign of how vulnerable your system is to sudden renewable energy disruptions; if you manage to cut Russia prices will be insane, and there will be real shortages everywhere.

The West doesn't want to cut Russia, Russia has given it no choice but to accelerate its plans to cut energy dependency.

That is more nonsense. The West will cut Russia and whatever the cost it will be a small price to pay.

[Fuiking]

If those imports are right at the start of long chain of derived products, business disruptions can be immense.

No gas/oil/coal -> no chemicals, plastics, steel, fertilizer
No fertilizer -> harvest collapse
No steel/plastics -> manufacturing collapse

You get the idea.



Check what German industry leaders say:
One factor tends to be forgotten in the ideologically heated debate now raging in the European Union over whether to implement a total embargo of Russian gas: the repercussions on the Russian economy would be less draconian than here. Of course, 73% of Russian gas exports go to Europe, but they only make up 11% of Russia’s total exports. So the Russian economy can probably live with the consequences of a ban, while the vital gas-dependent industries of Europe, and Germany in particular, cannot. They will be forced to shut down.

That reality has led to severe warnings by leading German industries, including just last week from the chemical giant BASF and Siemens Energy. As for the head of the German Industrial Federation BDI, Siegfried Russwurm, he stated outright on March 31, despite protests, that the backbone of the German economy – its industry — would collapse in the event of an embargo.

The CEO of BASF, Martin Brudermüller, for his part told the FAS that it “could send the German economy into its most serious crisis since the end of World War II,” particularly jeopardizing the existence of medium and small sized enterprises. An “experiment” like this would be “irresponsible” he said, although most people are unaware of the consquences it would have. For instance, even if only 50% of gas deliveries were cut, the BASF factory in Ludwigshafen, which employs tens of thousands, would have to be shut down.

The CEO of Siemens Energy, Christian Bruch, confirmed to Handelsblatt (April 1) that the negative impact on Germany would be greater than the effect on Russia. In the short term, he said, the volumes now supplied by Russia cannot be replaced.

Oke, learn to read: short term cannot be replaced: long term it probaly can.

Trying to find any victory for your much behated Russia I see, yet you keep failing? when is the gulag a thing for you if you keep this failing up?

[Huehuecoyotl]

If those imports are right at the start of long chain of derived products, business disruptions can be immense.

No gas/oil/coal -> no chemicals, plastics, steel, fertilizer
No fertilizer -> harvest collapse
No steel/plastics -> manufacturing collapse

You get the idea.

Clearly I don't understand how logic works in your world. In this scenario where all these long chains of products all collapse, wrecking western economies, how do they not also wreck the Russian economy? Are you viewing this as some kind of economic MAD? Or just assuming that reality can't impinge on Russia as long as you keep your eyes tightly closed?

[Shalcker]

I posted earlier that the Chinese government warned all state-owned refineries against signing new purchase contracts with Russia. This does not apply to the so called Chinese “teapots” which are the largest “off-the-book” buyers of Russia’s crude. So, when these “teapots” are trying to resell their future contracts (2 months out), you can be sure that they are not buying any crude from Russia.

Actually that could just as well be attempt to "whitewash" Russian crude through them. Like delivering Russian oil two months later to state companies as "Chinese" rather then refine it themselves (which we have no idea if they are equipped to). Similar to Shell's "Latvian mix".

It'll depend on volumes we'll see there.

Some traders are speculating, that between the lower price, the estimated 20 - 30 percent discount, and higher shipping cost, Russia’s crude net cost may be getting close to its $47 per barrel break even point.

That 47$ number only applies to oil extracted on Arctic shelf; there are still oilfields that are profitable at 20$ price point too.

What May deadline? The ban against US purchasing Russia's crude was effective immediately. All shipments from Russia to US were rerouted to other markets. Including ships already in the Gulf of Mexico.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/02/c...rs-russia.html
---
at least seven tankers are still sailing toward the United States to offload their shipments before the U.S. ban on Russian oil takes full effect on April 21.

The United States imports only a small fraction of its oil from Russia, but nevertheless gasoline prices in America have been soaring in part because of the uncertainty over global supplies caused by the Ukraine invasion. On Thursday, President Biden, under pressure to bring down high American gasoline prices, said that the United States would release up to 180 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves, a release at an unprecedented scale.

But in fact, Russia — the world’s third largest oil producer behind the United States and Saudi Arabia — is still exporting plenty of oil. Despite the global condemnation of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Russian exports of oil and oil-derived products have yet to show a significant decline, according to data from Kpler, the commodity data and analysis firm.

Some countries, like India, Singapore and Turkey, have sharply increased their receipts of Russian oil in the weeks since the invasion, according to a separate tally by a Ukraine-led effort to investigate the companies and countries that continue to buy and sell Russian oil and gas. And the European Union has been unable to agree on an oil embargo among concerns that such a move would push economies in to recession, though Germany has said it intends to phase out Russian oil imports by the end of the year.
---

[Cynep]

Wanna bet that Russia will keep Crimea and that corridor ? And even maybe Dombass as a bonus ? That is how reality works.

That will most likely going to be an outcome plus minus.

A very pitiful return for the all the effort and damage Russia took. Their initial Crimea bid was a master class, but this was a complete disaster.

I'm not even sure Russia will be able to hold much aside from Crimea long term, because eventually down the road Russia still would want to settle and go for another "reset".

You're the most grounded in the "Ukraine must give up land" camp. Don't you see that what y'all are saying is precisely equal to 1942's "Wanna bet Nazi Germany keeps Czechia, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine and parts of Russia?" My bet is on the side that is receiving lend-lease and has higher morale defending in their Patriotic War.

Currently occupied territories and borders after the war ends are different things. Here's another history fact for you: German Empire was technically "winning" the WW1 for its entire duration including the day they surrendered. Instead of keeping the part of France they were occupying, they lost land in the peace deal.

Ukraine doesn't need to concede land. Tragedy of Russia is that they don't have a worthy leader to replace Putin.

[Shalcker]

Russia will have to concede something for sanctions to go away. What would be the worst scenario still acceptable to you personally, in return for sanction relief?

There will be no concessions from Russian side.

Russia feels like it has a stronger hand while Westerners are absolutely deluded about Russian capabilities, and it is already setting up as fight until the end for the New World Order.

There might be concessions in case of total defeat, and no sooner.

[Arrashi]

real life is NOT a cartoon or comic book

Yeah, in carttons or comic books they pretend russians are at least semi-competent so author wont be called racist.

Meanwhile real ruskies went 200% red alert, with high likehood of putin escaping to space by the end of year.

[Shalcker]

Clearly I don't understand how logic works in your world. In this scenario where all these long chains of products all collapse, wrecking western economies, how do they not also wreck the Russian economy?

Because our industries will still have Russian gas, oil, and coal; and so we still can produce most of things we need.

EU already sanctioned plenty of products with previous sanctions, so dependency on most critical things was cut long ago.

[Fuiking]

There will be no concessions from Russian side.

Russia feels like it has a stronger hand while Westerners is absolutely deluded about Russian capabilities, and it is already setting up as fight until the end for the New World Order.

There might be concessions in case of total defeat, and no sooner.

If we were so deluded, why are you still losing/having a hard time beating the Ukranians? Shouldn't you guys have them outmanned, outgunned and overran them in the first week? Last time I checked you still do not have Mariopol.. So having stronger hand then the west? AHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAH.. holy shit. Is that what you really believe?

[Arrashi]

Because our industries will still have Russian gas, oil, and coal; and so we still can produce most of things we need.

EU already sanctioned plenty of products with previous sanctions, so dependency on most critical things was cut long ago.

Seeing how 30% of people in russia lack working toilet and shits behind the barn i kinda doubt it.

[Belize]

Umm...No not quite. There's almost no mountains here. It's just forest.

Oh hm. My bad, for some reason I've always pictured Finland as being about as mountainous as its neighbors across the gulf.

[ABEEnr2]

Because our industries will still have Russian gas, oil, and coal; and so we still can produce most of things we need.

EU already sanctioned plenty of products with previous sanctions, so dependency on most critical things was cut long ago.

Yet even ur military are dependent on the west for component. So oil, coal and gas will not save you.

[Devonitar]

Meanwhile real ruskies went 200% red alert, with high likehood of putin escaping to space by the end of year.

I don't know. Orcs still fit them best. They even build huts of twigs and poo, are confused about tools of the civilization, and have proper goblin cheerleaders like that Shalcker creature.