Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

no, I think after invading Ukraine and murdering up to 100,000+ innocents (and counting), we should not pretend Putin is some kind of Kim Jong Un with empty threats.

UN's OHCHR has recorded 1.9k, though they admit the total is definitely higher. Even the Ukraine government has only claimed around 13k.

Why should anybody listen to a thing you say when you're so clearly ill-informed?

You've been wrong so many times that it's impossible to keep track.

[Gaidax]

UN's OHCHR has recorded 1.9k, though they admit the total is definitely higher. Even the Ukraine government has only claimed around 13k.

Why should anybody listen to a thing you say when you're so clearly ill-informed?

You've been wrong so many times that it's impossible to keep track.

OK, let me stop you right there.

When the dust will settle, don't be surprised to find out that death count pushes 100k, if not goes over it.

You have talks of 22k dead in Mariupol alone right now: source

And you can bet there is plenty more all around. So yes, while I think that Yuppie boy is slurping Kool-Aid like water with his nukes obsession, some claims are not that wild.

It still however does not mean that Russia is going to be invading Finland or Sweden anytime soon. They simply don't have the capacity for it and will only make things worse for themselves.

[uuuhname]

don't you people remember when you are all confident Putin was just bluffing with Ukraine in 2021?

why would he bluff with Sweden and Finland? It will make him look like a pussy to back down, which he can never have evidently, and is the sole reason he's still waging this insane losing war vs Ukraine.

because the assumption was that only a total idiot or lunatic would think Russia invading Ukraine would pan out literally ANY differently than it currently is. which is to say a total disaster for the invading army.

it doesn't help when you're surrounded by yes men who basically lie to you about your armies capabilities.

[Corvus]

Don't forget NATO has guaranteed them security during the application process as well.

[Rasulis]

This is just weird.

Huawei sent part of the employees of the Russian office on vacation for a month

The Chinese manufacturer of telecom equipment Huawei sent part of the employees of the Russian office on vacation for a month, three sources told Forbes - close to the manufacturer of telecom equipment, an employee of a distribution company and an employee of a mobile operator. Earlier, the publication "Izvestia" reported that Huawei stopped concluding new contracts for the supply of equipment to mobile operators due to possible US sanctions. After the start of Russia's "military special operation" in Ukraine, the administration of US President Joe Biden announced that it would limit Russia's access to advanced technologies. At the same time, sanctions prohibit trade with Russia even from third countries that produce goods using American technologies and equipment.

"Huawei, due to fear of secondary sanctions, almost after the first restrictions, the United States suspended all orders in Russia," said a source close to the manufacturer of telecom equipment. According to him, Russian employees were sent on vacation for a month in April: "There are no orders, so why should people go to the office - in a month the vacation will either be extended or employees will be returned from it." Employees from China and now go to the office, added the interlocutor of Forbes. An employee of the distributor company noted that Huawei has reduced the staff of the marketing department. Huawei declined to comment.

The fact that Huawei has suspended the acceptance of new orders for the supply of "iron" to Russia is also known to the head of the "Infrastructure Solutions" direction of the company of the IT integrator "Krok" Alexander Sysoev. According to him, due to the departure of Huawei from Russia, the most critical will be the shortage of data storage systems and telecom equipment. Now not all types of these systems can be replaced by domestic analogues, Sysoev added. "It is likely that Huawei is revising its product line to supply Russia with those products that do not use American technology," he argues.

Russia communication technology is so bad that, without Huawei, Ericson and Nokia, they have to resort to analog? Once again, that is just weird.

That second part will be a tall mountain to climb. Finding electronic equipment 100% devoid of US IPs is a very tall order.

[Gaidax]

This is just weird.

Huawei sent part of the employees of the Russian office on vacation for a month



Russia communication technology is so bad that, without Huawei, Ericson and Nokia, they have to resort to analog? Once again, that is just weird.

That second part will be a tall mountain to climb. Finding electronic equipment 100% devoid of US IPs is a very tall order.

Analogue = equivalent.

Bruh...

[Jastall]

Occupying Ukraine would furthermore be a massive economic sink.

I don’t know if Russians believe that Ukrainians will worship them as saviors and the moment a surrender were to happen everything would settle peacefully, but I think the mass graves and gross and flagrant murder of civilians during their invasion will likely have bred a deep and violent resentment in Ukraine against the Russians, let alone any occupation.

Yeah, even if Russia takes the entire place in 1-2 months (fat chance) the damage will still be very considerable and the populace will not let them rest easy, especially given that they'll get loads of Western aid. Occupation is quite costly, even if profitable for military contractors.

Then again according to a certain poster Russia can just decide to steal the secrets to advanced CPU chips and build the factories to make their own ezpz like this were a game of Civilization and you just need some guy to nick the blueprints to build anything. Presumably while having the capital to soak up the lost profit on their main industry, the effect of major sanctions, patch the holes left by the Ukrainians in the army AND occupy and rebuild a mangled country that hates their guts, all at once. Nothing is impossible with enough cya blat, it seems.

[Rasulis]

Analogue = equivalent.

Bruh...

Appreciate the correction.

[Thekri]

because the assumption was that only a total idiot or lunatic would think Russia invading Ukraine would pan out literally ANY differently than it currently is. which is to say a total disaster for the invading army.

it doesn't help when you're surrounded by yes men who basically lie to you about your armies capabilities.

At very least, it will likely have disabused him of the notion that he has the capability to invade anyone else in the near term. He has committed his reserves, and massively drawn down his forces all over to Russia to feed into the Donbass meat grinder. He has nothing left to invade anyone else with.

As far as all the talks of nuclear and chemical weapons, I would put the chance of the former at below 5%, and the second at around 50%. Putin is doubling down on the war, but he is also showing that he intends to survive this. What we have seen so far is monstrous, incompetent, arrogant, and cruel, but not suicidal. He intends to escape this war with something to show for it, and use of WMDs will cement Russia's status as an international pariah for ever, and if he uses nuclear weapons, there may not even be a Russia left.

[Corvus]

Indian Oil removes Russian Ural crude from its latest tender.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/...rce=reddit.com

[YUPPIE]

50%

that's high as fuck. that's like an almost guarantee he will use chemical weapons.

besides that, Biden just called out Putin committing genocide.

[Poopymonster]

that's high as fuck. that's like an almost guarantee he will use chemical weapons.

No. No it's not. Bad YUPPIE. I'd smack your nose with a rolled up newspaper and rub your nose in the shit you just spewed if I could. It means it's a 50% chance. This isn't Scott Steiner maths.

[PhaelixWW]

OK, let me stop you right there.

When the dust will settle, don't be surprised to find out that death count pushes 100k, if not goes over it.

You have talks of 22k dead in Mariupol alone right now: source

Per AP:

The mayor of the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol said Monday that more than 10,000 civilians have died in the Russian siege of his city, and that the death toll could surpass 20,000, as weeks of attacks and privation leave the bodies of Mariupol’s people “carpeted through the streets.”

That's a wild estimate swing, from the more-certain 10k to a "could surpass" 20k.

Regardless, the claim was 100k+ civilians dead now, of which there is no supporting estimate. Nobody has an estimate anywhere close to that.

It still however does not mean that Russia is going to be invading Finland or Sweden anytime soon. They simply don't have the capacity for it and will only make things worse for themselves.

Right. What troops would they even use? Some 75-80% of the entire available Russian military force is already fighting in Ukraine.

And getting relatively stomped, at that.

[YUPPIE]

people, the new Russian general in Ukraine is known for war crimes and chemical weapons.

don't put it past him.

Biden saying Putin is a genocider though? A head of state saying that is a big deal.

[Iphie]

At very least, it will likely have disabused him of the notion that he has the capability to invade anyone else in the near term. He has committed his reserves, and massively drawn down his forces all over to Russia to feed into the Donbass meat grinder. He has nothing left to invade anyone else with.

I hear numbers from years to up two decades to bring the strength back up to pre-war levels, with at least some months before the current army has any form of cohesion. So yeah, invasion of other countries seems unlikely in the near term, and even for his successors. (pure math, in two decades he would be90, by then he has stepped down or went on due to old age.)

As far as all the talks of nuclear and chemical weapons, I would put the chance of the former at below 5%, and the second at around 50%. Putin is doubling down on the war, but he is also showing that he intends to survive this. What we have seen so far is monstrous, incompetent, arrogant, and cruel, but not suicidal. He intends to escape this war with something to show for it, and use of WMDs will cement Russia's status as an international pariah for ever, and if he uses nuclear weapons, there may not even be a Russia left.

Still 5% too much. I'm sure NATO will be pissed over nukes, they might still stay out of it if it doesn't affect NATO territory, though there will some response in any case. I do wonder what China and India's response would be in the case of a nuclear strike on Ukraine. I can't imagine them being terribly amused by such an action.

[PhaelixWW]

that's high as fuck. that's like an almost guarantee he will use chemical weapons.

Man, add "math" to the list of things at which you're embarrassingly bad.

- - - Updated - - -

We'll see if it goes anywhere this time.

[YUPPIE]

I do wonder what China response would be in the case of a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

if NATO and the US does nothing, they will feel emboldened and launch an all-out assault on Taiwan.

If they do something, they'll still feel inclined to sit on the sidelines.

[Corvus]

First batch of Switchblades have been delivered. They are getting both the 300 and tank killing 600.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsc...88434502393858

Cheap, fast, small and silent due to an electric engine. Wonder if they can be flown at night. If so you could be seeing silent night strikes on crucial stuff, like generals, command posts, fuel tankers, ammo dumps.

[YUPPIE]

Is there any concern for the West continuing to ramp up weapons and weapon supplies for Ukraine? If they keep this up, there's no way Putin will win.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...rce=reddit.com

They're practically sending everything short of WMDs right now.

The cause for concern is Putin's reaction to this level of support.

[Thekri]

I hear numbers from years to up two decades to bring the strength back up to pre-war levels, with at least some months before the current army has any form of cohesion. So yeah, invasion of other countries seems unlikely in the near term, and even for his successors. (pure math, in two decades he would be90, by then he has stepped down or went on due to old age.)

My estimate of time to return to pre-war strength levels is "Never". Russia wasn't getting any stronger, it was getting weaker year after year. I know all the resident Russians make it seem like it wasn't a nation drowning in its own corruption, but it was, and still is.

This thread gives a good synopsis of a recent contract for squad level secure communications.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1367614591698690056

This is NOT unique to radios, this was and is universal across Russian military strength, and I have seen nothing to suggest this pattern has changed. The Russian Army survived on their Soviet inheritance, and with that gone, they have no path to rebuild what they never built in the first place. Once inheritances are gone, they don't come back.

Still 5% too much. I'm sure NATO will be pissed over nukes, they might still stay out of it if it doesn't affect NATO territory, though there will some response in any case. I do wonder what China and India's response would be in the case of a nuclear strike on Ukraine. I can't imagine them being terribly amused by such an action.

I hope 5% is too high, but I certainly don't consider nuclear weapons impossible. The worse Russian forces perform, the more credible the possibility of a nuclear strike becomes. I still consider it a very low possibility, because the cost to Russia of even a single nuke being launched would be staggering, but I certainly wouldn't rule it out.