1. #17121
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zealo View Post
    Statements like that is an attempt at laying the groundwork for calling the “special operation” what it actually is to their own populace back in Russia.
    Good.

    I'm sure the Russian people and their "89% approval rating" (eyeroll) will love to hear they're all being drafted this coming May 9. I am sure they'll be so happy and thrilled to be handed a gun they're told works, and told to follow a tank they're told works.

    And the mood/feeling/economy of Russia won't even blink as millions of men are rounded up at gunpoint as they volunteer to leave their homes, wives, children and jobs for this.

    If you can't follow that train of logic, it's because it's on the other side of the Czar Chasm.

  2. #17122
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zealo View Post
    Statements like that is an attempt at laying the groundwork for calling the “special operation” what it actually is to their own populace back in Russia.

    Ukraine did a general mobilisation back in february, Russia has not as of yet, and that could be a sign of what’s coming next.
    They couldn't organize, equip, and create a logistical framework for far fewer men with what was effectively unlimited preparation time in an economy that wasn't collapsing or under brutal sanction.

    I don't doubt that this is bad for Ukraine, if only by merit of the fact that it means more people with guns running at them is bad. But this is ultimately just Russia digging itself even deeper into this hole.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  3. #17123
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    I don't doubt that this is bad for Ukraine, if only by merit of the fact that it means more people with guns running at them is bad.
    In theory, Russia could try to zerg Ukraine and just flood them with superior numbers until they get enough natural 20's to win. It's a legitimate concern. It also assumes Russia's citizens infinitely comply and there are no other side effects. If Russia has any legit chance of declaring war and winning by this strategy, they'll need as many armed and mobilized as quickly as possible.

    See your Point One.

    This doesn't appear to be a viable strategy for the kind of victory they're looking for. But a declaration of war might "allow" them to give up on any form of restraint and empty their arsenal of airpower, missiles, and bombs which they've been holding back because they never thought they'd need them.

  4. #17124
    Merely a Setback PACOX's Avatar
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    Instead of trying to "de-nazify" Ukraine, Putin needs clean up Russia. Imagine how the war would have went if people weren't ripping off their own military.

  5. #17125
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    Putin needs clean up Russia.
    Putin is what's wrong with Russia.

  6. #17126
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    This doesn't appear to be a viable strategy for the kind of victory they're looking for. But a declaration of war might "allow" them to give up on any form of restraint and empty their arsenal of airpower, missiles, and bombs which they've been holding back because they never thought they'd need them.
    Have they been holding back though? Short of WMDs and some rare concept tech, they seem to have thrown everything they can except for human waves of raw conscripts.

  7. #17127
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Have they been holding back though?
    I assume so. I just kind of assumed Russia has a bunch of long-range bombers they could use for this.

  8. #17128
    Over 9000! zealo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    Instead of trying to "de-nazify" Ukraine, Putin needs clean up Russia. Imagine how the war would have went if people weren't ripping off their own military.
    You got that the wrong way around, Russia needs to clean up their fascists in government and the military, Putin included.

  9. #17129
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    I assume so. I just kind of assumed Russia has a bunch of long-range bombers they could use for this.
    Reportedly they've been used against Mariupol which seems an expensive way of doing what they are already doing with artillery.

    Given Ukraine still has active air defences they probably don't want to risk their bombers elsewhere.

  10. #17130
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    I assume so. I just kind of assumed Russia has a bunch of long-range bombers they could use for this.
    Russia has been using its strategic bombers to fire cruise missiles at Ukraine from day one of the war.

  11. #17131
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leobald View Post
    Russia has been using its strategic bombers
    Well I was kinda going for non-strategic bombers. But, yeah, air defenses. Honestly, you could hit Ukraine with missiles from Russia fired from the ground, I don't see how firing them from bombers in Russian airspace helps much.

  12. #17132
    I know the general sentiment has been expressed, but I think it is worth adding on to how much of a loss Russia will lose from countries moving away from their crude oil.

    For those who aren't familiar with large-scale manufacturing, standard procedure is to run a production line 24/7, with a 1-2 week downtime each year for maintenance, repair, updates, etc. Chemical manufacturing - oil refining in this case - are heavily dependent on the incoming raw material.

    This isn't a matter of swapping from fresh paper to recycled paper, or using a type of steel that's slightly heavier. The refining process will need to be altered, and that that is costly in both time and money.

    This leaves a few possibilities for Russia:

    A) The refinery rolls the dice on the availability of Russian crude in the future. If the supply dries up for any reason, they can't operate until they do an additional downtime.

    B) The refinery uses Russian crude until their regular downtime, spends the money to switch to a different supply of crude, and then Russia somehow manages a miraculous recovery, and the refinery pays again to swap back the next year.

    C) Option B, but Russia doesn't miraculously recover quickly, or the competing crude is just as, if not more, cost effective. Or the refinery decided Russia is just too risky.

    I probably don't need to tell you that companies are generally risk adverse. The though of losing 4% of your annual production (2 weeks) because your supplier can't supply is a huge risk.

    TL;DR: Once a refinery stops using Russian crude, they aren't going back for at least a year, probably significantly longer.

  13. #17133
    The Lightbringer Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Well I was kinda going for non-strategic bombers. But, yeah, air defenses. Honestly, you could hit Ukraine with missiles from Russia fired from the ground, I don't see how firing them from bombers in Russian airspace helps much.
    You shoot what you have, if Russia only has bomber deployed missiles readily available they fire those, and vice versa, if they ahve ground based missiles available they'll shoot those.

  14. #17134
    Epic! Ermelloth's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zealo View Post
    Russia needs to clean up their fascists in government and the military, Putin included.
    This.
    A lot of Russian people oppose the regime, they are just afraid cause of new "legislation" (up to 15 years in jail for openly opposing "operation Z").

  15. #17135
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    That's the analogy. Ukraine is throwing bananas at Russia. And it's working.
    Now that line is just stupid. They did not sunk the ship throwing rocks at him. Those Neptune missiles are modern weapons developed by Ukraine and as we can see pretty good at their job.
    Theres no invincible weapons, everything have some weak spot. They did a great job finding the one on Moscva.

  16. #17136
    Immortal Poopymonster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    I mean, a feint is an absolute classic, legitimate military tactic. They've been used in military campaigns since before the dawn of civilization.

    That being said... hoooo boy. Falling prey to such a simple feint has to be a mortifying embarrassment for the Russian Navy.

    I wonder what Sun Tzu would have to say about this... "When in Sea of Black... look out behind you!"

    - - - Updated - - -

    So I guess Russia's started its retaliation for the sinking of the Moskva.

    NYTimes: Russian forces shelled buses carrying evacuees, killing 7, official says.


    Though nothing screams impotent rage more than retaliating for the sinking of a flagship by shelling civilian buses fleeing the front line.
    If someone screamed "LOOK! ELVIS!" and pointed, then I looked, then someone sank my battleship, I'd commit crimes against humanity too.
    /S

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    In theory, Russia could try to zerg Ukraine and just flood them with superior numbers until they get enough natural 20's to win. It's a legitimate concern. It also assumes Russia's citizens infinitely comply and there are no other side effects. If Russia has any legit chance of declaring war and winning by this strategy, they'll need as many armed and mobilized as quickly as possible.

    See your Point One.

    This doesn't appear to be a viable strategy for the kind of victory they're looking for. But a declaration of war might "allow" them to give up on any form of restraint and empty their arsenal of airpower, missiles, and bombs which they've been holding back because they never thought they'd need them.
    I seem to recall a few areas being indiscriminately mined that might be a detriment to a Zerging once the first FRM happens.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    Instead of trying to "de-nazify" Ukraine, Putin needs clean up Russia. Imagine how the war would have went if people weren't ripping off their own military.
    Pigpen, why is your room already a mess, you just cleaned it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Well I was kinda going for non-strategic bombers. But, yeah, air defenses. Honestly, you could hit Ukraine with missiles from Russia fired from the ground, I don't see how firing them from bombers in Russian airspace helps much.
    Once again, they're trying to look imposing. They think seeing planes flying overhead, will they bomb a hospital? An apartment complex? A library? I could be next. I'd best put down my weapons, strap on my pistol grip boots, and answer "You're my Vladdy." during the degenerate defilement debriefing. Remember kids, no brakes on the rape train.

    Over here in Reality, it's part of Operation Shook and D'oh.
    Quote Originally Posted by Crissi View Post
    Quit using other posters as levels of crazy. That is not ok


    If you look, you can see the straw man walking a red herring up a slippery slope coming to join this conversation.

  17. #17137
    Putin just banned Boris Johnson and Liz Truss from entering Russia. Not often you hear about Putin doing something to benefit the Russian people...

  18. #17138
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DarkAmbient View Post
    Putin just banned Boris Johnson and Liz Truss from entering Russia. Not often you hear about Putin doing something to benefit the Russian people...
    I'd say Johnson did much better than most of EU with his stance when it comes to Russia.

    At the very least he's not trembling like a fig leaf, like half of them when time comes to put the heat on.

  19. #17139
    Yes, he may be a lying scumbag but I'm certainly not going to argue that he's failed on Ukraine.

  20. #17140
    You can't fault the response from eastern Europe (well, except Hungry) but the UK does stick out in western Europe.

    - - - Updated - - -

    A russian politician claims he has information the US is building biolabs in Mongolia now. How silly of the US, building them right on the doorstep of Russia in places Russia wants to take over. Next we will be hearing about biolabs in Kazakhstan, Georgia, Moldovia and the Baltic States.

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