Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Makabreska]

Its not a question of if its a rational response. It never is.

Its just a Russian tactic used to obfuscate the pretense of one of their attacks. They used in Syria all the time. Probably won't be nukes at first but given enough desperation, it certainly will be.

Dude, don't go Yuppie on us.

[Thekri]

Dude, don't go Yuppie on us.

The presence of one person rambling about nukes doesn't mean that nuclear weapons are not a very real issue. While I agree it is unlikely, it isn't impossible, and the topic is worth being concerned about.

[Kaleredar]

The presence of one person rambling about nukes doesn't mean that nuclear weapons are not a very real issue. While I agree it is unlikely, it isn't impossible, and the topic is worth being concerned about.

I think people pointing it out as an inevitability is what's getting supremely tiresome.

[Thekri]

I think people pointing it out as an inevitability is what's getting supremely tiresome.

Yeah, it certainly isn't inevitable. It is possible, but unlikely.

[Kaleredar]

Yeah, it certainly isn't inevitable. It is possible, but unlikely.

I think Putin knows that the use of nukes means things get much, much worse for him.

It should be evident that other countries are not being "intimidated" by Russia. Sweden and Finland didn't look at the invasion of Ukraine and go "ah snap, we better try and play it safe and not make Russia angry!" They went "ah, dang. That looks like a gigantic clusterfuck. Hey NATO, mind if we come a knockin'?" Russia's constant entreaties that Ukraine surrender "lest the situation get worse" have also fallen on deaf ears, with Ukraine putting up its dukes with a resounding cry of "I didn't hear no bell!"

Using Nuclear weapons likely means that Putin wholesale loses the support of the fence-sitting countries that are critically important in his attempts to curtail the massive downward spiral of his country's economy, like China and India. Say what you will but China doesn't want mass chaos- that's bad for business. Especially when such actions by Russia would cause other nations to likely put up a rather straightforward ultimatum of "you're either with us... or with Russia, and their sanctions." Again. Bad for business. And not a country in the world wants "Nuclear war" legitimized as a means of warfare.

So in addition to the strict disastrous geopolitical ramifications for Russia, the military response from other nations would likely be swift, brutal, and directed straight at Russia. With how utterly incompetent Russia's military is proving to be, Putin is likely pretty thankful with how relatively minor other countries military support for Ukraine has been.

[Khaza-R]

Dude, don't go Yuppie on us.

I am not sure what that is supposed to mean. Factually, Russia has a very overt policy of de-escalation by escalation. If you think they are going to watch their flagship get sunk and not reciprocate then you are living in a fantasy land. Ukraine knows this. That's why they are bracing for a response themselves.

One of Russia's greatest weapons is disinformation. Its not very useful to them in Ukraine as we've seen over the course of this war. But on their own soil, where they can stage and disseminate their own information its still very powerful.

No one can can see how this conflict is going to end. But I assure that Russia cowering in disgrace is the least likely of all scenarios that will play out. Even in tone to nuclear warfare.

[Templar 331]

What scares me the most is if Russia drops nukes on Ukraine what will the world's response be? The world is already cutting ties with Russia, as it should, but would any country or group of countries be willing to retaliate in this scenario on behalf of Ukraine? If not on behalf of Ukraine then to at least guarantee Russia doesn't drop nukes on their own country by taking out Russia's military capabilities. But that leads to a Catch 22 where that would increase the chances of being nuked by Russia.

God this shit sucks. Fuck Russian Hitler and all his apologists.

[Yunru]

What scares me the most is if Russia drops nukes on Ukraine what will the world's response be? The world is already cutting ties with Russia, as it should, but would any country or group of countries be willing to retaliate in this scenario on behalf of Ukraine? If not on behalf of Ukraine then to at least guarantee Russia doesn't drop nukes on their own country by taking out Russia's military capabilities. But that leads to a Catch 22 where that would increase the chances of being nuked by Russia.

God this shit sucks. Fuck Russian Hitler and all his apologists.

There is no value in radiated land. And its to close to other countrys and not to mention a radiation cloud would go there. Every other country would attack Russa if this happened (not by nukes, but by invasion). Its much smarter to intercept nukes and blow them out of sky, before they have a chance to leave the country.

[Gaidax]

Russia has plenty more other stuff to drop on Ukraine if needed.

There is a very long road to go before Nukes are on the menu. You'd be more concerned with chemical and biological weapons for one or simply indiscriminate mass bombardment of the population centers - these are actually plausible options if Russia would want to go hard.

[Corvus]

First photos of what is said to be the Moskva, smoking and listing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttech...18122036621321

[Templar 331]

Russia has plenty more other stuff to drop on Ukraine if needed.

There is a very long road to go before Nukes are on the menu. You'd be more concerned with chemical and biological weapons for one or simply indiscriminate mass bombardment of the population centers - these are actually plausible options if Russia would want to go hard.

Thankfully they haven't but I wonder why? If Russia used chemical or biological weapons any retaliation for it would be met with the same threat of nukes. So what's stopping Russia?

[Santti]

Thankfully they haven't but I wonder why? If Russia used chemical or biological weapons any retaliation for it would be met with the same threat of nukes. So what's stopping Russia?

Who knows?

Maybe they can't properly utilize them without also affecting their own troops?

Maybe they fear the morale that is already awful among the Russian army, would only get worse for doing something atrocious like that, and have deemed it not worth it?

Maybe they have deemed them simply ineffectual, or lack a proper delivery method for them, when simple bombs seem to do the job well enough?

Maybe they fear rest of the world would then isolate and sanction Russia to hell for it? More so than they currently are being isolated and sanctioned, that is.

[Lynarii]

Thankfully they haven't but I wonder why? If Russia used chemical or biological weapons any retaliation for it would be met with the same threat of nukes. So what's stopping Russia?

Russia wants a future mostly. These sanctions are crippling it's true, but once things are resolved then a year or two later you are going to have people in every Western nation saying "Are they really still needed, we could be making more money if you dropped them" and they will be dropped. Unless the public keeps the pressure up, and while the memory of the public is notoriously short, it does get extended with each new level of atrocity that is committed. You can bet there are strategists in Russia who are running numbers on greed vs morality and giving projections as to how long it will take before greed wins, and what impact various actions have on that time.

It's also worth saying that chemical, biological, and even nuclear weapons are more psychological weapons than anything else. You can completely annihilate an area without ever touching one of those three, the actual damage a WMD strike would do pales in comparison to what they're already doing with bombs and artillery. So bringing out the scary weapons is truly a question of whether it will scare people into compliance or invite stronger resistance. And so far most of their efforts has resulted in the latter. If they strike Kiev with a WMD attack and it /doesn't/ cause near immediate surrender, they screwed up.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Thankfully they haven't but I wonder why? If Russia used chemical or biological weapons any retaliation for it would be met with the same threat of nukes. So what's stopping Russia?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...tion-for-putin

“The biggest risk for Russia in using them is that they would build a very strong case for NATO intervention,” Kofman said. “That’s something they want to avoid.”

North Atlantic Treaty Organization chief Jens Stoltenberg said recently the alliance had activated chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defense elements as part of its defense plans. He also warned their deployment by Russia would change the nature of the conflict.

[Kaleredar]

Russia wants a future mostly. These sanctions are crippling it's true, but once things are resolved then a year or two later you are going to have people in every Western nation saying "Are they really still needed, we could be making more money if you dropped them" and they will be dropped. Unless the public keeps the pressure up, and while the memory of the public is notoriously short, it does get extended with each new level of atrocity that is committed.

Keep in mind, however... the longer this goes on, the more the rest of the world effectively severs itself from Russia.

For instance, the EU has set forth a plan to cut off its reliance on Russian energy sources. And they likely know the benefit of putting Russia in its place for the foreseeable future far outweighs a year or two of more complicated fuel logistics.

As time goes on, other countries will miss Russia less, and Russia will begin hurting for their loss more. Not the other way around.

You can bet there are strategists in Russia who are running numbers on greed vs morality and giving projections as to how long it will take before greed wins, and what impact various actions have on that time.

I don't know that that's all that great of a bet. Everything we've seen from Russia seems to indicate that they've had almost zero command of this situation on every single level. And they keep projecting their bullshit narratives to the world despite the fact that the world is wise to the fact that it's just that-- bullshit, and nobody is believing it.

I think they assumed the greed and apathy of other countries and the *cough* perceived competency of the Russian military would be enough to get them through this situation relatively unscathed. I'd say that estimation failed utterly on both accounts, and I really don't see a reason to believe either notion is improving for the Russians.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Russia wants a future mostly. These sanctions are crippling it's true, but once things are resolved then a year or two later you are going to have people in every Western nation saying "Are they really still needed, we could be making more money if you dropped them" and they will be dropped. Unless the public keeps the pressure up, and while the memory of the public is notoriously short, it does get extended with each new level of atrocity that is committed. You can bet there are strategists in Russia who are running numbers on greed vs morality and giving projections as to how long it will take before greed wins, and what impact various actions have on that time.

If it had been a couple of days or a week...you'd probably be right. But the longer it goes on and the more atrocities Russia commits...the harder it will be for people to just fall back into the comfortable status quo.

[Gaidax]

Thankfully they haven't but I wonder why? If Russia used chemical or biological weapons any retaliation for it would be met with the same threat of nukes. So what's stopping Russia?

Chemical weapons are most certainly not level of Nukes.

Nukes is a whole other level, Chemical weapons? Another line in the sand - more sanctions. Most likely Russia would like to avoid escalating that further, after all they would want to get off the tree at some point and chemical weapons are quite a bit more severe for that prospect.

[PhaelixWW]

And now the first video (even if it's short) of the Moskva before it sinks.

[Specialka]

And now the first video (even if it's short) of the Moskva before it sinks.

"she" sinks. Ships are refered as "she".

[Vorkreist]

Which EU-countries stopped buying gas ?

It seems to me that you don't realize how fucked up the gas economy inside Europe is.
Poland for example "doesn't want to buy gas from Russia" - but they buy it from Germany.
It's a big "hurr durr" in terms of how "They are not making contracts with Gazprom".
They let other countries do it for them, it seems.

It seems to me that you don't know anything about Germany blocking transports of weapons to Ukraine followed by saying they don't have enough extra surplus stocks to help Ukraine and other bullshit attempts to not do jackshit in helping Ukraine since the conflict started.
Also clueless about the corrupt german politicians sucking up to Russia over the years and the general place of Germany in EU in general.

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Maybe they fear the morale that is already awful among the Russian army, would only get worse for doing something atrocious like that, and have deemed it not worth it?

The child rapists draw the line at chemical weapons and would lose morale.