Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

Putin apparently thought better of storming Azovstal, instead the Russians are going to besiege it.

https://www.dw.com/en/putin-cancels-...tes/a-61529869

When I first heard of it I thought it must be a joke - since when has Russia ever been reluctant to throw away the lives of its soldiers? But I guess the expected death toll was too much even for them to handle. The funny thing was that the Tiktoker-in-chief had just stated earlier in the day that AzovStal would be taken by the end of the day.

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Ok, so, lemme get this straight, there is an ACTUAL term for this mud and the effect on war is well documented. Yet Russia, one of the countries usually benefitting from this effect, decides to ignore this and attack at the beginning of this season?

And they didn't expect that they were going to have to fight either. Just roll in and Ukraine would surrender.

[Ripster42]

Not the kind of mud in Russia/Ukraine/Belarus, it's renown for stopping armies in it's tracks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa

With that much organic material in the soil, the water penetrates deep. The midwest in the US has some areas like that where we can sometimes see 5-6' deep mud. You're not driving a tank through that. Contrary to what the person you quoted said, tires are often the way to go. Multiple sets of wide tires are better than tracks for that type of mud. The vehicles that use that method are much lighter, as the only weight increases tend to be extending the axles and adding tires. This is a 9400. It varies from a normal 4 wheel design to things like:

[P for Pancetta]

With that much organic material in the soil, the water penetrates deep. The midwest in the US has some areas like that where we can sometimes see 5-6' deep mud. You're not driving a tank through that. Contrary to what the person you quoted said, tires are often the way to go. Multiple sets of wide tires are better than tracks for that type of mud. The vehicles that use that method are much lighter, as the only weight increases tend to be extending the axles and adding tires. This is a 9400. It varies from a normal 4 wheel design to things like:

You need something like this with a machine gun on top:

[Corvus]

So the video clip of putin talking to Shoigu is interesting. He seems to be gripping the table with his right hand in an odd way, his right leg seems to be shaking a bit and he is sitting hunched over in a posture that is not at all like how he normally sits.

[Iphie]

When I first heard of it I thought it must be a joke - since when has Russia ever been reluctant to throw away the lives of its soldiers? But I guess the expected death toll was too much even for them to handle. The funny thing was that the Tiktoker-in-chief had just stated earlier in the day that AzovStal would be taken by the end of the day.

Yeah, I was a bit skeptical as well, but as I said later, Putin, or someone who cares, must have looked at the bloodbath that would result, and how he couldn't hide that. Thought of a potential rout of the stormers, and deemed it not worth it. In addition Zelenskyy had said something about no longer negotiating if those defenders died, so this could be, no matter how unlikely that is, a concession by Putin.

Putin is apparently crowing about victory here, so it's not an entirely silly idea, and it fits the narrative that is developing about the 9th of May.

And they didn't expect that they were going to have to fight either. Just roll in and Ukraine would surrender.

True, but the irony is not any less for it.

[Vladier]

So the video clip of putin talking to Shoigu is interesting. He seems to be gripping the table with his right hand in an odd way, his right leg seems to be shaking a bit and he is sitting hunched over in a posture that is not at all like how he normally sits.

Putin or Shoigu? Because Shoigu having had a heart attack would certainly explain it.

[Corvus]

Putin or Shoigu? Because Shoigu having had a heart attack would certainly explain it.

Putin. Shoigu oddly looks healthier than Putin in the video.

[No Kings Voter]

Putin says he is cancelling plans to storm the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol and is content for his forces to maintain the siege while taking control of the rest of the city. In the televised meeting, the Russian defence minister tells Putin there are 2,000 Ukrainian troops inside the steel plant but they are securely trapped inside.
"There is no need to climb into these catacoms," he says at meeting with defence minister.

IMO If the Russians won't storm it, it's a sign of how heavy their casualties were in taking the rest of the city. Battle of Mariupol has taken weeks, UA losses awful but RU losses certainly worse so likely be astronomic.

[Azadina]

To be fair, doing the math, there's supposed to be about 10+ BTG there, those have between 6000-8000+ troops there (going by 600-800 troops per BTG), if the defenders inflict 5-10K casualties then they effectively destroy the invading army there. I kinda doubt that would happen given the supplies situation.

Maybe that's why they gave up on the idea; they just don't have enough bodies to throw at the machineguns. The usual 3 to 1 advantage calculation that attacker might need may not apply on heavily defended vast nuclear bunker tunnels.

[tlitd]

What they say they want. What they actually want. Business as usual.

...meanwhile: they're getting roasted leisurely in a "fully captured" city.

[Belize]

Putin says he is cancelling plans to storm the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol and is content for his forces to maintain the siege while taking control of the rest of the city. In the televised meeting, the Russian defence minister tells Putin there are 2,000 Ukrainian troops inside the steel plant but they are securely trapped inside.
"There is no need to climb into these catacoms," he says at meeting with defence minister.

IMO If the Russians won't storm it, it's a sign of how heavy their casualties were in taking the rest of the city. Battle of Mariupol has taken weeks, UA losses awful but RU losses certainly worse so likely be astronomic.

How uh... How do they intend on securing the city without flushing out the 1000+ soldiers under their feet...?

I can only imagine those bunker are stocked for at least a couple months and a prolonged siege with enough troops to prevent sorties by the Ukrainians will only give more time for the Ukrainian army in the west of the country to keep pushing east...

Russia is setting itself up to be caught between a cock and a hard place.

[Breccia]

If the Russians won't storm it, it's a sign of how heavy their casualties were in taking the rest of the city. Battle of Mariupol has taken weeks, UA losses awful but RU losses certainly worse so likely be astronomic.

Yeah, I was a bit skeptical as well, but as I said later, Putin, or someone who cares, must have looked at the bloodbath that would result, and how he couldn't hide that. Thought of a potential rout of the stormers, and deemed it not worth it. In addition Zelenskyy had said something about no longer negotiating if those defenders died, so this could be, no matter how unlikely that is, a concession by Putin.

A siege is the tactically better choice. Putin's been losing way too much, and May 9th is around the corner.

[Biglog]

In the WW2 Battle of Stalingrad, Russian forces made a well-known last stand at the large Volgograd factory. The Germans planned to demolish every square inch of the factory to kill the soldiers inside, and instead turned it into a pile of rubble that actually was great for a defensive position. It part of the reason the German advance ground to a halt there literally at that factory and never got beyond it. Putin's own mother was a civilian that was saved in the siege of Leningrad, a similar battle.

So it is incredibly ironic that fast forward to today in Ukraine in Mariupol at the massive Azovstal Steel factory (the largest factory in Europe), Ukrainian soldiers are making their own last stand against a Russian attack. It's such a strange action for Russia even just from a psychological standpoint.

[Iphie]

A siege is the tactically better choice. Putin's been losing way too much, and May 9th is around the corner.

I don't disagree, I'm just surprised by the move as well as by the meeting where Putin literally says they must consider the lives of their troops first. As said, my money is on someone giving him the calculation and him going, "ok...that's bad and I'm not willing to go unconventional on their ass to, literally, smoke them out.". May 9th is indeed around the corner and it is getting really close to have a victory of any kind, this gives him some form of a victory.

[Breccia]

Putin literally says they must consider the lives of their troops first.

I get there's a state-run media chokehold, but that line runs 100% contrary to the invasion so far. I don't think even Russians believe this.

[Iphie]

I get there's a state-run media chokehold, but that line runs 100% contrary to the invasion so far. I don't think even Russians believe this.

I know, my first response was, "who is that and what has he done with Putin.". I mean that was the one thing you could count on: Putin doesn't give a shit about anyone under him.

[Dadwen]

I don't disagree, I'm just surprised by the move as well as by the meeting where Putin literally says they must consider the lives of their troops first.

Ole Zap Putler....

[Corvus]

Everything seems to catch fire in Russia - latest is a military research institute in Tver, NW of Moscow, which focuses on things like air defence and guidance and control systems.

[Breccia]

not even he could cover up a death toll that big.

On that line of thinking, I wonder if this is in any way connected to the flagship mass funeral wreath-laying ceremony? That sure looked like an attempt to cover up a death toll, but with only 120 people there who might not even have been the ship's sailors, and the captain 100% missing...was that another miscalculation? Did he say "eh, throw something together, the Russian people will believe whatever I say" and it flat-out didn't work?

The wreath-laying ceremony, to anyone with access to useful information and two functional brain cells, was the end of a clear and transparent comedy. The claim that it was a random-ass ammo fire, then the ship coincidentally sunk in a storm on a sunny day, that everyone survived despite hundreds of charred bodies apparently but only about 25% showed up for the wreath-laying ceremony for their own ship, and the captain (best of my knowledge) hasn't been seen since. I mean, there's "say yes to Most Glorious Leader Poll" but then there's "say My Little Ponies are real" level if unbelievable. And the effect up and vanished like a farce in the wind.

Putin might not care that he's losing, the lives of his men mean less to him than the value of rubles, but he cares that Russia thinks he's losing. Maybe losing his flagship to "tap him on the shoulder so he turns around" was the wake-up call for too many Russians, and Putin finally acknowledged he's a tyrant but not a mind controller. The best lies grow from a seed of truth, and it's planting season.

[snebb]

Putin. Shoigu oddly looks healthier than Putin in the video.

Oh wow. What needs to be remembered here is this is acutely planned propoganda.

If Putin could display a stronger image of himself, he would be.
Doesn't seem able to look up directly in Shoigu's eyes for long.
Hand gripping the table, thumb twitching.
Upper left torso twitches/lurches.
Slouched inward shoulders.
Right leg twitching.

Also compare this to other videos/photos of him seated at a table for talks, he rarely slouches back like this.

He is sick and this appears to be a quick detoriation in recent weeks.