Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

Latest batch of US support for Ukraine includes more than 70 155mm howitzers with towing vehicles, 144,000 rounds of ammo for them, spotting drones to aid the howitzers and another type of loitering kamikaze drone.

The Dutch are reportedly going to send PzH 2000 self propelled howitzers. These things outclass and outrage anything the Russians have.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebasti...rs-to-ukraine/

The German manufacturers of them reportedly offered 100 of them to Ukraine, to be taken from German army stocks and to be replaced as new ones were built, but the German ruling party said no. Even the German greens are pushing for heavier weapons but it's just not happening.

[Mihalik]

The German manufacturers of them reportedly offered 100 of them to Ukraine, to be taken from German army stocks and to be replaced as new ones were built, but the German ruling party said no. Even the German greens are pushing for heavier weapons but it's just not happening.

Germans constantly getting cold feet is really starting to get on pretty much everyone's nerves. Germany really lost a whole lot of leadership points around this fiasco.

[Afrospinach]

Germans constantly getting cold feet is really starting to get on pretty much everyone's nerves. Germany really lost a whole lot of leadership points around this fiasco.

Their excuse is that they will fail to meet NATO obligations if they sell the hardware.

When have they ever met NATO obligations? With their half dozen combat ready eurofighters out of 120.

[Crispin]

Yeah, I saw that earlier and nearly spat water all over my keys. If Russia is known for one thing, it’s tanks. This has gotta make Putin furious.

Extremely ironic, but Russia is the largest supplier of heavy weapons to Ukraine, in their fight against Russia.

Who would have thought just two months ago, that Russia was this shit at waging war. I definately feel far more safe now, than just two months ago, when the idea was that Russia would easily conquer Ukraine, and probably run over the baltics next.

[qwerty123456]

Fuck if I know why, but my brain still refuses to compute anyone ordering the murder of children.

Well Putin does want the Soviet Union back so why wouldn't he do the same thing they did to create it in the first place?

[XDurionX]

Their excuse is that they will fail to meet NATO obligations if they sell the hardware.

When have they ever met NATO obligations? With their half dozen combat ready eurofighters out of 120.

It's not as easy as that. It's no use giving them vehicles they can't operate and don't have the time to learn to do so. Giving them Leo 2's would be as good as blowing them up themselves. So instead, they're sending tanks to slovakia, so THEIR soviet era tanks which CAN be operated by ukranians are given instead.

[Mihalik]

It's not as easy as that. It's no use giving them vehicles they can't operate and don't have the time to learn to do so. Giving them Leo 2's would be as good as blowing them up themselves. So instead, they're sending tanks to slovakia, so THEIR soviet era tanks which CAN be operated by ukranians are given instead.

Yes and no.

What was discussed wasn't Leo 2. It was somewhat up to date Leo 1s which are functional and mostly refurbished, intended to be sold to developing and third world countries. Those tanks could have been delivered yesterday.

Here's two things. One something Zelensky pointed out and another that is somewhat logically self evident.

1. As Zelensky pointed out the Ukrainians aren't fucking retarded. If provided with training they wouldn't need months to learn how to use the gear. Weeks would suffice to be able to mostly operate it. They might not be ultra proficient tank aces, but a tank with a barely trained crew is still better than no tank at all. This has also been pointed out by various German military officials and the people from the defense industry.

2. Logically they wouldn't have sent those fucking tanks to the front lines day 1. But it would have freed up tanks that they have in reserves to be sent to the front lines, while giving time for the guys in reserves to get more familiar with the weapon systems. It would also allow them over time to get more and more NATO gear as it would allow them to build a skill base.

This shit with shuffling around hardware (lots of promises by the Germans to do so, but no shuffling happened yet) is literally just a waste of time. Assuming it ever happens, by the time that stuff makes it to Ukraine, it's too late.

Meanwhile the Leo 1s are just sitting in a warehouse. This is simply the SDP still having too many Kremlin simps and "Give peace a chance Die Linke Lite" morons floating around.

[Corvus]

The Germans have said they will train the Ukrainians in how to use the PzH 2000 - they just won't give them any. The Dutch, who have a much smaller number of them will though.

[Flarelaine]

So...isn't this pretty far into Russia for Ukraine to have done anything? What the heck is going on?

Russian maintenance standards.

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.reuters.com/world/ethiop...ne-2022-04-21/

Huh, so Russia is trying to lure Ethiopians to join the fight on their side with some money. No evidence any have actually made the trip to fight, but I guess this is where the mighty Russia is - recruiting poor folks from Africa to fight their war for them with alleged promises of money that will likely never come.

If we can believe the Ukrainians, even their own uniformed soldiers are overwhelmingly from ethnic republics within Russia. The ones the Ukrainians killed and identified, that is.

[Corvus]

In a quickly deleted post (but the internet remembers) a pro-Kremlin media outlet says Russia had had 13.4k dead with another 7k missing. Moskva had over 100 dead with another 100 missing

https://mobile.twitter.com/kevinroth...iPcUiXz6UtgCpg

[PhaelixWW]

In a quickly deleted post (but the internet remembers) a pro-Kremlin media outlet says Russia had had 13.4k dead with another 7k missing. Moskva had over 100 dead with another 100 missing

https://mobile.twitter.com/kevinroth...iPcUiXz6UtgCpg

So... ~20k dead/missing and, what, another 40-60k injured?

Yikes.

[Azadina]

In a quickly deleted post (but the internet remembers) a pro-Kremlin media outlet says Russia had had 13.4k dead with another 7k missing. Moskva had over 100 dead with another 100 missing

https://mobile.twitter.com/kevinroth...iPcUiXz6UtgCpg

So in other news, they have 13,4K dead, plus 50-200% the "admitted" number.

[Shrouded]

So in other news, they have 13,4K dead, plus 50-200% the "admitted" number.

It sure makes Ukraine's estimated numbers look very believable all of a sudden.

[Azadina]

It sure makes Ukraine's estimated numbers look very believable all of a sudden.

I wish Ukraine updated their estimate chart to have "Capital ships: 1". Just to rub it in.

[Yunru]

Those fires that are set up randomly, could be just molotovs from mothers that lost their sons in war.

It did happen with enlistment office once, so it can happen again.

[Rustedsaint]

I wish Ukraine updated their estimate chart to have "Capital ships: 1". Just to rub it in.

Silly billy, Russia may have lost a capital ship but they gain a capital Sub!
But seriously the fires and the oglicacy guys dying is very sus.

[PhaelixWW]

The Guardian: Russian military official: plans to take full control of Donbas and southern Ukraine, open gateway to Transnistria

A Russian military official is being quoted this morning saying that it intends to control the whole of southern Ukraine.

The Interfax news agency reports the deputy commander of Russia’s central military district said it plans to take full control of Donbas and southern Ukraine as part of the second phase of the military operation.

Reuters notes he was also cited as saying that Russia planned to forge a land corridor between Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, and Donbas.

And in a line that will be concerning to Chisinau, he is also reported to have said that control of Ukraine’s south will give Russia another gateway to Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria.

Pretty much was my guess:

Yes, but very likely the main goal for Putin was never Ukraine as a whole, anyway. It was probably always Donbas, Crimea, and a southern land bridge between them.

That gives him (and deprives Ukraine of) access to the relatively untapped oil reserves in those regions as well as the port of Sevastopol.

Taking Odessa would be the next goal, and the entirety of Ukraine would be the stretch goal.

That stretch goal is fairly impossible for him by now. But otherwise, it seems to be exactly as I figured. The key for Putin would be taking the south in order to connect Donbas and Crimea, as well as controlling the water supply for Crimea. The next important thing would be taking out Odesa and linking up with Transnistria, giving him access to invade Moldova next.

If he's able to block Ukraine from the Black Sea, then take control of Moldova, Ukraine's days are squarely numbered.

Still, taking and holding the entirety of the south including Odesa, which they've hardly even touched, is an extremely tall order for Russia's military at this point.

Sounds like a plan in which an Alligator-class landing ship and a flagship missile cruiser would come in handy.

Whoops.

[Corvus]

What Russian officials say is often divorced from reality. And 4 days into their second phase they've barely moved. Even just taking the Donbas may be beyond them, let alone any further than that, especially with Ukraine starting to get a lot more heavy weaponry given to them.

Also, all the reservists that Ukraine called up should be finishing their retraining about now.

[Flarelaine]

That stretch goal is fairly impossible for him by now. But otherwise, it seems to be exactly as I figured. The key for Putin would be taking the south in order to connect Donbas and Crimea, as well as controlling the water supply for Crimea. The next important thing would be taking out Odesa and linking up with Transnistria, giving him access to invade Moldova next.

If he's able to block Ukraine from the Black Sea, then take control of Moldova, Ukraine's days are squarely numbered.

While we may pass the time guessing about what he wants, what really matters is what he can get. What he wants would only matter if one expected to close this war through negotiations. Negotiations mean both sides give up something. Ukraine simply cannot yield an inch because that would mean Russia just regroups and comes back while Ukraine is that much weaker. And I doubt anyone believes whatever guarantee Russia can offer that they will not. They signed five different treaties wherein they promised to leave Ukraine alone.

[Arrashi]

Germans constantly getting cold feet is really starting to get on pretty much everyone's nerves. Germany really lost a whole lot of leadership points around this fiasco.

You know Scholz really is enigma here. The way he behaves almost makes you think he is russian agent they need to burn because situation is so bad.
I can imagine that if puttler declares "victory" on May 9, he will ask to lift sanctions almost immediately.