Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Poopymonster]

So the chemical plant fire the other day? It might just be more impactful than first realised. Interesting thread on it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Spoonamor...10440598843394

Without those chemicals you can't make jet/rocket fuel or even explosives or ammo.

So, by May 1st....."FIX BAYONETS! CHARGE!"

[Xyonai]

So the chemical plant fire the other day? It might just be more impactful than first realised. Interesting thread on it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Spoonamor...10440598843394

Without those chemicals you can't make jet/rocket fuel or even explosives or ammo.

Among the products this plant made are the additives needed for advanced rocket/jet fuels, treatments/solvents for servicing metal parts, core input chemicals for explosive and solvents/traces/washes needed to manufacture electronics and circuits.

Between this and the R&D building exploding shortly before it, I'm putting a bit more money on intentional sabotage.

[PhaelixWW]

AP: Mariupol officials: Second mass grave found

Another mass grave has been found outside Mariupol, the city council and an adviser to the mayor said Friday.

The city council posted a satellite photo provided by Planet Labs showing what it said was a mass grave 45 meters (147.64 feet) by 25 meters (82.02 feet) that could hold the bodies of at least 1,000 Mariupol residents.

It said the new reported mass grave is outside the village of Vynohradne, which is east of Mariupol.

Earlier this week, satellite photos from Maxar Technologies revealed what appeared to be rows upon rows of more than 200 freshly dug mass graves in the town of Manhush, located to the west of Mariupol.

The discovery of mass graves has led to accusations that the Russians are trying to conceal the slaughter of civilians in the city.

[Edge-]

AP: Mariupol officials: Second mass grave found

Sanction them back to the stone age, it is.

Jesus fucking christ.

[Xyonai]

On the more cathartic topic of Russian Shit exploding: the TsNIIMash Russian rocket and spacecraft scientific center came down with a sudden case of 'being on fire'.

[Jastall]

On the more cathartic topic of Russian Shit exploding: the TsNIIMash Russian rocket and spacecraft scientific center came down with a sudden case of 'being on fire'.

There's something more to this, to be certain. That's far too many fires in at least moderately strategic complexes to just be a series of accidents.

I doubt it's a bunch of ninja-esque American black ops teams or whatever, but sabotage feels possible, but even then this coordinated? I dunno. But it's off. Maybe a bunch of insurance scams write large, who knows with how corrupt Russian society is at this point.

[Edge-]

There's something more to this, to be certain. That's far too many fires in at least moderately strategic complexes to just be a series of accidents.

I doubt it's a bunch of ninja-esque American black ops teams or whatever, but sabotage feels possible, but even then this coordinated? I dunno. But it's off. Maybe a bunch of insurance scams write large, who knows with how corrupt Russian society is at this point.

"These were building that were planned for destruction, and it was determined that rather than demolish them the safest way to do so was to burn them to the ground. There is nothing unexpected or to see here, this is just a normal week in Russia."

[Xyonai]

There's something more to this, to be certain. That's far too many fires in at least moderately strategic complexes to just be a series of accidents.

I doubt it's a bunch of ninja-esque American black ops teams or whatever, but sabotage feels possible, but even then this coordinated? I dunno. But it's off. Maybe a bunch of insurance scams write large, who knows with how corrupt Russian society is at this point.

I mean it could still be some Spooks, but Spooks leveraging on domestic dissidents to do the deed to keep their own noses clean. Someone else in the thread mentioned that there are tons of Ethnic Ukranians in Russia and might not be a stretch either to assume that they don't like the fact that Russia's fucking their homeland

Could be both, we might never know.

[PhaelixWW]

"These were building that were planned for destruction, and it was determined that rather than demolish them the safest way to do so was to burn them to the ground. There is nothing unexpected or to see here, this is just a normal week in Russia."

Judges would have also accepted "The building sank due to stormy seas."

[Jastall]

I mean it could still be some Spooks, but Spooks leveraging on domestic dissidents to do the deed to keep their own noses clean. Someone else in the thread mentioned that there are tons of Ethnic Ukranians in Russia and might not be a stretch either to assume that they don't like the fact that Russia's fucking their homeland

Could be both, we might never know.

Still, the idea of ethnic Ukrainians happening to have access to what is, what, half a dozen structures and all deciding to praise the gods of fire within 2-3 days of each other seems a bit much to swallow for me. Regardless of my misgivings, there's clearly more to this even if I doubt we ever learn the truth.

[Xyonai]

Still, the idea of ethnic Ukrainians happening to have access to what is, what, half a dozen structures and all deciding to praise the gods of fire within 2-3 days of each other seems a bit much to swallow for me. Regardless of my misgivings, there's clearly more to this even if I doubt we ever learn the truth.

Oh for sure. If it's actually CIA we won't know for decades. If it's another country's secret ops we probably will never know. I can expect Russia to roll out scapegoats within a few days, though, just to have anyone to blame. Or outright deny the extent of the damages and pretend everything is going along swimmingly.

[Corvus]

Russia is claiming SAS sabotage groups are in Ukraine training Ukrainians so maybe that is the line they are going to go with.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share

[Edge-]

Russia is claiming SAS sabotage groups are in Ukraine training Ukrainians so maybe that is the line they are going to go with.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share

I'm not sure, "British trained Ukranian sabateurs got deep within Russian territory and simultaneously burned down 4+ buildings that should have been fairly secure in the matter of a few days." is a much better line than "We burned them down on purpose." : |

[Corvus]

I'm not sure, "British trained Ukranian sabateurs got deep within Russian territory and simultaneously burned down 4+ buildings that should have been fairly secure in the matter of a few days." is a much better line than "We burned them down on purpose." : |

If the Russian public bought 'we sunk our own flagship' they no doubt will buy that too

[Iphie]

AP: Mariupol officials: Second mass grave found

It's probably Mariupol residents, but with that removed report on Russian media about 13000 dead and 7000 missing Russian soldiers I wouldn't be entirely surprised if a good part of the bodies are Russian soldiers as well.

[Dadwen]

Reports of water gates having been blown causing severe flooding near Krasnodar Russia

Headlines in Russia papers: preventative measures against fires and combustible buildings.....

[Cynep]

Here's a video mostly for people who disagreed with my view on how the war will end. An American dude talks to the camera for 7 minutes, from a different PoV in different words he elaborates on the same thought I've been voicing here for good 1.5 months: the fighting is going on, but Russia has already lost the war, the question is what exactly will Russia lose in consequence (in addition to respect).

[zealo]

Reports of water gates having been blown causing severe flooding near Krasnodar Russia

That's just a special water operation.

[Lynarii]

Here's a video mostly for people who disagreed with my view on how the war will end. An American dude talks to the camera for 7 minutes, from a different PoV in different words he elaborates on the same thought I've been voicing here for good 1.5 months: the fighting is going on, but Russia has already lost the war, the question is what exactly will Russia lose in consequence (in addition to respect).

At this point both sides have lost the war. Russia won't come out more powerful even if it takes everything it wants to take at this point, and Ukraine is going to be beaten, bloody, and reeling for a decade even if Russia left today. There is no world in which this war has a winner, it's just a matter of deciding what all is lost, and Russia needing /something/ tangible to justify it all. It's horrifying in every possible way the word can be envisioned.

[Warning]

At this point both sides have lost the war. Russia won't come out more powerful even if it takes everything it wants to take at this point, and Ukraine is going to be beaten, bloody, and reeling for a decade even if Russia left today. There is no world in which this war has a winner, it's just a matter of deciding what all is lost, and Russia needing /something/ tangible to justify it all. It's horrifying in every possible way the word can be envisioned.

I don't agree with your assessment as regards to Ukraine because I think the timeframe it considers is too short. The Ukrainian government long before this war knew that it had a difficult choice ahead of it that would define its future. Ukraine would either be absorbed by Russia piece by piece starting with Crimea, or it would join the EU/NATO and end very likely up in a larger military confrontation with Russia. They knowingly made the choice to join the west over Russia. The results of that choice so far have probably aligned with or exceeded their expectations. Before this conflict broke out they had to be unsure they could win it, and had to have doubts about the support they would receive from the west. Now, about two months into it they're looking a Russian loss, and are still receiving significant support from western allies.

You're right that they have a decade of rebuilding ahead of them. But a decade is not much when the existence of your country was at stake. Ukraine's continued existence was in doubt before this conflict, now it's starting to look more undeniable every day. The rebuilding effort will have western financial support, and Ukraine has won tremendous favor and standing in the international community by its legendary resistance. Who now will question the grit and strength of the Ukrainian people? That means that they are very likely going to come out of this war far stronger than they had been.