Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Kallisto]

Why? Fuck russia. The sanctions should stay in place until Putin is dead, the entire body of russian military officers is tried in international court, and russian nukes are dismantled.

That's simply put not in the scope of any reality. The big 5 are pretty much immune from any kind of international court. Not just that but also allies of the big 5. Saudi Arabia has been doing the exact same shit for well over a decade in Yemen, but no one from there is going to an intertnational court anytime in our lifetime. If they're not entering, neither are high ranking Russians.

[Arrashi]

I never said anything about the sanctions being lifted, or them keeping their nukes but them giving up nukes or having their officers tried is, at best, a dream. What I am saying is: Versailles resulted in WWII, I have 0 appetite for a re-run of that, nor do I want to kick the can 20 odd years down the street. If you have a good idea on how to handle this then by all means be my guest and implement it. No need to be too delicate but if you're too harsh we'll end up in much rougher water.

As for Putin, nature will come calling, sooner rather than later I suspect.

Dont worry they gonna have identical replacement in no time. At best we gonna get some funny dancing idiot for 5/10 years to butter west into "not all russians". And then it will be back as usual.

[Vorkreist]

I never said anything about the sanctions being lifted, or them keeping their nukes but them giving up nukes or having their officers tried is, at best, a dream. What I am saying is: Versailles resulted in WWII, I have 0 appetite for a re-run of that, nor do I want to kick the can 20 odd years down the street. If you have a good idea on how to handle this then by all means be my guest and implement it. No need to be too delicate but if you're too harsh we'll end up in much rougher water.

As for Putin, nature will come calling, sooner rather than later I suspect.

You don't seem to consider the long term risks of not being harsh enough in such a situation. China is drooling to start some shit looking at how passive the west is with Ukraine.
The only answer for such deranged autocracies that proved for a century now that they won't change their ways is actual deterrence ( massive military advantage with clear signs of willing to use it and massive economic control ) and not praying you will be friends next year somehow by easing sanctions in response to their genocides.

[Iphie]

You don't seem to consider the long term risks of not being harsh enough in such a situation. China is drooling to start some shit looking at how passive the west is with Ukraine.
The only answer for such deranged autocracies that proved for a century now that they won't change their ways is actual deterrence ( massive military advantage with clear signs of willing to use it and massive economic control ) and not praying you will be friends next year somehow by easing sanctions in response to their genocides.

I do consider the long term risks, but that's the problem isn't it? Be too harsh and you run the risk of a re-run of WWII. Be not firm enough and aggressors learn that they can get away with it. Neither scenario leads to lasting peace, so we need to find the sweet spot in between and the ability to think long term and big picture. Your rage is valid, however acting upon this rage and allowing it to blind you from the long term consequences breeds a cycle of violence and war.

And again, I didn't say ANYTHING about lifting sanctions, though I can see a few being lifted to ease the lives of the 'regular' russians. (in so far they exist).

[Corvus]

Some good news - with Russia preventing food being shipped from Ukraine to the middle east and Africa, raising fears of starvation there - Poland has signed an agreement with Ukraine for them to use Polish ports to ship the food.

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad2...98176237727746

[Mihalik]

I do consider the long term risks, but that's the problem isn't it? Be too harsh and you run the risk of a re-run of WWII. Be not firm enough and aggressors learn that they can get away with it. Neither scenario leads to lasting peace, so we need to find the sweet spot in between and the ability to think long term and big picture.

Russia in its current incarnation cannot be allowed to rejoin the international community. The sanctions do not need to be and should not be lifted or reduced, on the contrary. They need to ramped up. Russian exports need to be embargoed and their access to western markets for absolutely anything needs to be completely eliminated.

The Russian economy needs to be neutered to the point where it cannot possibly replace the military losses it suffered in Ukraine.

Now once that is done, then we can dangle the carrot. Aid, trade, lifting of sanctions, tit for tat elimination (like the reduction of nuclear arsenals etc) in exchange for clear, tangible and honest measures taken by Russia, things like withdrawal of forces from Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Syria, Kazakhstan etc internationally monitored referendums in the various Russian sponsored break away republics, internationally monitored free elections inside Russia etc.

In essence we need to be harsh until a real peace is obtained, but we need to be very generous in victory. Like with Germany and Japan.

By the way.

After publicly claiming they won't try to take Azovstal...now they are trying to storm the plant again.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...odesa-00027346

[Iphie]

Russia in its current incarnation cannot be allowed to rejoin the international community. The sanctions do not need to be and should not be lifted or reduced, on the contrary. They need to ramped up. Russian exports need to be embargoed and their access to western markets for absolutely anything needs to be completely eliminated.

The Russian economy needs to be neutered to the point where it cannot possibly replace the military losses it suffered in Ukraine.

Now once that is done, then we can dangle the carrot. Aid, trade, lifting of sanctions, tit for tat elimination (like the reduction of nuclear arsenals etc) in exchange for clear, tangible and honest measures taken by Russia, things like withdrawal of forces from Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Syria, Kazakhstan etc internationally monitored referendums in the various Russian sponsored break away republics, internationally monitored free elections inside Russia etc.

In essence we need to be harsh until a real peace is obtained, but we need to be very generous in victory. Like with Germany and Japan.

By the way.

After publicly claiming they won't try to take Azovstal...now they are trying to storm the plant again.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...odesa-00027346

I don't think we disagree on the principle: Firm but fair and, as you say, generous. (which is what I mean when I say: we need to avoid a Versailles.)

Regarding Azovstal, I'm seeing some conflicting news, one site says a full blown storming (which would be counter to the announcements), another says just a lot of shelling (which I think is consistent with a siege), a third speaks of skirmishes, so I'm not entirely sure and, so far, I've only seen one official named in relation to this news. So I'm somewhere between I don't know and welp, guess that was to be expected.

I do have to wonder, if this was the plan all along then why make a public announcement of a siege? if not, then Putin has changed his mind rather quickly again UNLESS someone else made this decision. (the latter would raise the question of control) I mean when all is said and done the calculation hasn't changed, storming this is a monumentally bad idea and will be costly. Given that the BTGs here are supposed to go up to the Donbass this would only tie the forces up. I did read that the defenders are getting supplied in limited amounts at night via helicopter. If anyone can provide insight in that I'd be very interested.

[Afrospinach]

After publicly claiming they won't try to take Azovstal...now they are trying to storm the plant again.

Apparently they have also been pounding it with everything including tank fire all day.

https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1

This is always a good read, they are ripping the shit out of the Russians on the Kherson front.

Regarding Azovstal, I'm seeing some conflicting news, one site says a full blown storming (which would be counter to the announcements), another says just a lot of shelling (which I think is consistent with a siege), a third speaks of skirmishes, so I'm not entirely sure and, so far, I've only seen one official named in relation to this news. So I'm somewhere between I don't know and welp, guess that was to be expected.

Probably all of the above, you don't expect the Azovstal defenders to sit quietly underground do you? Penning them in was never and option and that one probably came straight form the top if you know what I mean.

[Dadwen]

Oops another fire today.... The Russian Rocket and Spacecraft Scientific Center in Korolyov

*apologies if already mention here.

[Iphie]

Probably all of the above, you don't expect the Azovstal defenders to sit quietly underground do you? Penning them in was never and option and that one probably came straight form the top if you know what I mean.

I don't expect them to be quiet no, so this may very well be a response to an attempted breakout, that would make sense. My wife did point out that, like with the withdrawal from Kyiv, the orders might be delayed, it took several days before we saw movement there after the announcement. (if anything we have seen that communications aren't the greatest for the Russian army.)

[Voidwielder]

Don't think I'll find sympathetic people here but I'll say it anyway - absolutely and thoroughly fuck the Germans. Nation of duplicitous morons, cowards, jackasses and idiot.
I wish nothing but the absolute worst to you all.

[Iphie]

Oops another fire today.... The Russian Rocket and Spacecraft Scientific Center in Korolyov

*apologies if already mention here.

I wonder how common these are in general in Russia and how much we only notice them now given the war. Currently the Russians seem to be going with: faulty wiring, which strikes me as odd given that they can easily blame any number of suspects.

Don't think I'll find sympathetic people here but I'll say it anyway - absolutely and thoroughly fuck the Germans. Nation of duplicitous morons, cowards, jackasses and idiot.
I wish nothing but the absolute worst to you all.

What did the Germans do now?

[Lynarii]

I'm going to guess it has to do with the reports that Germany was exploiting a loophole in the sanctions to sell weapons to Russia in between 2014 and now, along with Scholz waffling on his excuse of the day for not doing more for Ukraine. I think his current one is that he needs to coordinate with NATO so that he won't be responsible for triggering a Russia/NATO war. Which is an embarassingly hollow line.

[Kaleredar]

I wonder how common these are in general in Russia and how much we only notice them now given the war. Currently the Russians seem to be going with: faulty wiring, which strikes me as odd given that they can easily blame any number of suspects.

While the prospect of "blaming Ukraine" might sound appealing to drum up support for the continued war within Russia, that might ultimately backfire in Russia, because it lets the people there know that 1) Ukraine isn't as beaten as they thought, 2) Russia doesn't have the Ukrainians under control, and 3) Ukraine has the ability to strike at them. Which, rather than emboldening the public, would likely serve more to scare them.

Admitting that there may be dissenters within Russia and blaming them is also, I'm sure, equally off the table: Russia is fighting hard to dispell any notion of internal dissent within the country, and admitting that, not only does that dissent exist, but that it exists in force to compromise Russian military buildings.

So the "ehhh guess the building contractors and inspectors were just incompetent!" Which of course becomes harder and harder to justify with every new Russian government building that spontaneously combusts. I wouldn't be surprised that, if these incidents continue, Russia simply stops reporting them.

[Iphie]

I see. I can appreciate his concern, but you're right, it rings rather hollow.

While the prospect of "blaming Ukraine" might sound appealing to drum up support for the continued war within Russia, that might ultimately backfire in Russia, because it lets the people there know that 1) Ukraine isn't as beaten as they thought, 2) Russia doesn't have the Ukrainians under control, and 3) Ukraine has the ability to strike at them. Which, rather than emboldening the public, would likely serve more to scare them.

Admitting that there may be dissenters within Russia and blaming them is also, I'm sure, equally off the table: Russia is fighting hard to dispell any notion of internal dissent within the country, and admitting that, not only does that dissent exist, but that it exists in force to compromise Russian military buildings.

So the "ehhh guess the building contractors and inspectors were just incompetent!" Which of course becomes harder and harder to justify with every new Russian government building that spontaneously combusts. I wouldn't be surprised that, if these incidents continue, Russia simply stops reporting them.

Fair points, and there is the possibility the Russians AREN'T lying and these buildings are just that badly maintained. Not entirely unlikely given the corruption.

[Voidwielder]

I'm going to guess it has to do with the reports that Germany was exploiting a loophole in the sanctions to sell weapons to Russia in between 2014 and now, along with Scholz waffling on his excuse of the day for not doing more for Ukraine. I think his current one is that he needs to coordinate with NATO so that he won't be responsible for triggering a Russia/NATO war. Which is an embarassingly hollow line.

Brits and the Frogs should also not be let off the hook - Thales guidance and targeting systems have been found in captured APCs/IFVs. They have been doing it since ~2016.

I profoundly hate them all. I wish nothing but gory death to those who signed those contracts.

[Kaleredar]

I'm going to guess it has to do with the reports that Germany was exploiting a loophole in the sanctions to sell weapons to Russia in between 2014 and now, along with Scholz waffling on his excuse of the day for not doing more for Ukraine. I think his current one is that he needs to coordinate with NATO so that he won't be responsible for triggering a Russia/NATO war. Which is an embarassingly hollow line.

Weapons sales accusations aside, the simple fact of the matter is that Germany can't pivot off of Russian energy sources quickly or easily. That's the last, strongest hook Putin has into Europe, and its one he can threaten to rip out were Germany to step up its support of Ukraine.

Should Germany have seen something like this coming? Probably. Should they have had their plan of easing off of Russian energy sources in, oh, say 2014 when Russia pulled their shit invading Crimea? Also probably. But hindsight is 20/20, and their apathy then is likely what Russia was expecting now.

Assuming Germany's pledge to get themselves off of Russian fuel sources is an honest one, they need to be working with the EU and US in the affirmative of replacing those needs sooner rather than later. That includes the logistics of shipping in new energy sources, building new alternative fuel sources, and prepping their civilians on ways to conserve energy.

[Voidwielder]

Weapons sales accusations aside, the simple fact of the matter is that Germany can't pivot off of Russian energy sources quickly or easily. That's the last, strongest hook Putin has into Europe, and its one he can threaten to rip out were Germany to step up its support of Ukraine.

Should Germany have seen something like this coming? Probably. Should they have had their plan of easing off of Russian energy sources in, oh, say 2014 when Russia pulled their shit invading Crimea? Also probably. But hindsight is 20/20, and their apathy then is likely what Russia was expecting now.

Assuming Germany's pledge to get themselves off of Russian fuel sources is an honest one, they need to be working with the EU and US in the affirmative of replacing those needs sooner rather than later. That includes the logistics of shipping in new energy sources, building new alternative fuel sources, and prepping their civilians on ways to conserve energy.

I get they need their cocaine - err, gas hit. No, this is about Scholz deliberately delaying, frustrating and outright lying about the possible heavy weaponry deliveries in to Ukraine. Liar, liar, liar. He lied. Knowingly and deliberately.

Not to mention that several ''modern'' captured Russian vehicles have Germany chassis and other crucial components. It's beyond outrageous, they have not only been payrolling the Russian state but directly facilitated the modernization efforts of Russian military.

- - - Updated - - -

Assuming Germany's pledge to get themselves off of Russian fuel sources is an honest one, they need to be working with the EU and US in the affirmative of replacing those needs sooner rather than later. That includes the logistics of shipping in new energy sources, building new alternative fuel sources, and prepping their civilians on ways to conserve energy.

Pipedream. Once Russia moves in to NATO countries, Germany will betray - without their bases, NATO has 0 forward deployment capability. Russia has already neutralized them, no one has even realized this yet.

[Kaleredar]

I get they need their cocaine - err, gas hit. No, this is about Scholz deliberately delaying, frustrating and outright lying about the possible heavy weaponry deliveries in to Ukraine. Liar, liar, liar. He lied. Knowingly and deliberately.

Not to mention that several ''modern'' captured Russian vehicles have Germany chassis and other crucial components. It's beyond outrageous, they have not only been payrolling the Russian state but directly facilitated the modernization efforts of Russian military.



Pipedream. Once Russia moves in to NATO countries, Germany will betray - without their bases, NATO has 0 forward deployment capability. Russia has already neutralized them, no one has even realized this yet.

Russia can’t successfully deploy an army into a country they border and on paper vastly outman and outgun without losing thousands of men and pieces of equipment they have neither the economic nor logistical means to replace.

They’re not touching a NATO country.

[Voidwielder]

Russia can’t successfully deploy an army into a country they border and on paper vastly outman and outgun without losing thousands of men and pieces of equipment they have neither the economic nor logistical means to replace.

They’re not touching a NATO country.

They will. Countries that believe they are fighting for their existence are not deterred by anything. NATO-Russia shooting war is inevitable, the question is when. Not if.