Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PACOX]

The point is that a country potentially joining NATO is a matter between that country and NATO, as independent states are independent - and not under the boot of an imperialistic country like Russia, who tries to grab eastern Europe - as Soviet-Russia did with the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

Well Ukraine is supposed to a neutral country. If anything it's supposed to neutral when it comes to siding with the US or Russia in the spirit of it giving up the nukes it inhereited from the USSR.

Old Cold War holdovers in the US and Russia know exactly what they are doing as they point fingers at each other as neither side has any business attempting to sway Ukraine one way or the other. Ukraine can and should join a defensive pact with western Europe. NATO? The US proxy? No shot. Russia should be upset about that based on prior agreements. Does Russia have grounds to Invade because Ukraine wants to sign a pact with Europe? No shot. Rumors of Ukraine joining NATO? Nope since Ukraine is not even close to joining NATO.

The US and Russia are full of it. Russia looks like it prepping for a war and the US looks like its trying to manufacture a narrative for one. This is what happens when both sides ignore the sovereignty of a neutral nation. I don't care what Russia did, I'm not Russian, but the US had no business allowing Ukrainian officials to flirt with the US years ago, and the fact that it was allowed means we weren't being honest about our side of the agreement in the first place.

Well technically we aren't violating the agreement because they came through us via NATO.

Its a bunch of crap.

[wunksta]

They shouldn't have any, but their messaging of late has been very focused on Ukraine's sovereign right to join which seems strange considering how many countries don't have that right.

Ukraine offers a huge amount of land so I think that's a big reason but Georgia has also been offered membership. Moldovo, Austria and Switzerland remain neutral. Finland and Sweden have refused official membership. That really only leaves Azerbaijan and Belarus.

[bladeXcrasher]

Well Ukraine is supposed to a neutral country. If anything it's supposed to neutral when it comes to siding with the US or Russia in the spirit of it giving up the nukes it inhereited from the USSR.

Old Cold War holdovers in the US and Russia know exactly what they are doing as they point fingers at each other as neither side has any business attempting to sway Ukraine one way or the other. Ukraine can and should join a defensive pact with western Europe. NATO? The US proxy? No shot. Russia should be upset about that based on prior agreements. Does Russia have grounds to Invade because Ukraine wants to sign a pact with Europe? No shot. Rumors of Ukraine joining NATO? Nope since Ukraine is not even close to joining NATO.

The US and Russia are full of it. Russia looks like it prepping for a war and the US looks like its trying to manufacture a narrative for one. This is what happens when both sides ignore the sovereignty of a neutral nation. I don't care what Russia did, I'm not Russian, but the US had no business allowing Ukrainian officials to flirt with the US years ago, and the fact that it was allowed means we weren't being honest about our side of the agreement in the first place.

Well technically we aren't violating the agreement because they came through us via NATO.

Its a bunch of crap.

There was no agreement, one US official had an informal conversation with a then USSR official.

[PACOX]

There was no agreement, one US official had an informal conversation with a then USSR official.

At the end of day, never give up your nukes no matter how nice the US and Russia are nice to you. Unless you want to kiss your sovereignty goodbye.

[bladeXcrasher]

At the end of day, never give up your nukes no matter how nice the US and Russia are nice to you. Unless you want to kiss your sovereignty goodbye.

A conscious decision by Ukraine. Even a cursory read of history would allow you to come to that conclusion, so who gives you yours?

[Shadowferal]

At the end of day, never give up your nukes no matter how nice the US and Russia are nice to you. Unless you want to kiss your sovereignty goodbye.

To be fair, after the USSR breakup I think there was a a bit of relief that those nukes became Russia's responsibility. I believe there was too much instability at the time and a nuke or three falling into careless/reckless hands was the primary concern. And even then, Ukraine firing off a nuke into Russia would be still wrong.

[PACOX]

To be fair, after the USSR breakup I think there was a a bit of relief that those nukes became Russia's responsibility. I believe there was too much instability at the time and a nuke or three falling into careless/reckless hands was the primary concern. And even then, Ukraine firing off a nuke into Russia would be still wrong.

Everyone has given up their nukes or weapons programs with good intentions. And they would be right if not for the Cold War era warhawks who come later to push their shit in.

Ukraine is going to be a playground for US defense contractors and Russian oligarchs.

Meanwhile you have NK that literally gets away with murder because they hold their weapons close.

[Biglog]

Ukraine gave up it's nukes only after written guarantees from Russia that they would never invade Ukraine. Russia needless to say hasn't honored that agreement in the slightest. Which country exactly gave up it's nukes to the US and was invaded? This hasn't even come up in a situation for the US to have an agreement to break, so no it's not a both sides thing. It is also a good reminder of WW2 history and that many isolationist people in the West (who all turned out to be terribly wrong) argued tooth and nail against England and the US entering WW2 even after Poland, etc. were invaded. It's why the US entered the war late in 1941 only after Pearl Harbor cemented public opinion.

Back to Ukraine, it looks very much like what I and many suspected that Russia is ready now but will wait for the end of the Olympics to avoid upsetting China. Russia has a large and very intentionally timed strategic nuclear force exercise for tomorrow (Saturday) that Putin will attend in a not so subtle threat to the West to not intervene, and closing ceremonies will be over by Sunday evening. So while things could explode at any moment with an invasion, Sunday evening/Monday is what would seem like the most worrisome window imo.

[Corvus]

It occurs to me our regular putinistas have been absent from this thread for a bit.

[Magnagarde]

If there is an invasion, they'll be pushing to the coast of the Dniepr. Putin's own essay on Russia's history clearly calls out what he believes to be a theft of Russian lands with the fall of the Soviet Union and a split within his etnos that is purely territorial in the present day. Appart from Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, Kharkov and Odessa are also in the sights of what I understand to be the "great Russian unification". One could draw parallels with Hitler's obsession with one Germany for all Germans, though I feel it is historically insensitive to call it that just yet.

Ironically, this kind of take is coming from someone who still keeps control over Kaliningrad. If things are to be returned to the way they were prior to the Soviets cutting up territories in Europe, then Königsberg needs to be returned to Germany too.

- - - Updated - - -

It occurs to me our regular putinistas have been absent from this thread for a bit.

I am not surprised. The only ones who would and could potentially justify these kinds of things would either have to be nationalist Russians or radical orthodox believers who believe that Putin's Russia is the Byzantine phoenix rising from its ashes. There's plenty of these to go around.

Russia's take on foreign intervention and the funding of rebel forces in Libya/Syria has garnered a lot of critical support over the past decade among readers/viewers around the globe. It isn't what Russia did, but what Russia didn't do in the past two decades that has lead to such a favourable view among many, with everyone simultaneously being reminded about US adventures in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria etc. This is evaporating with the events taking place in Ukraine and those that are capable of a pragmatic and rational assessment of the situation are distancing themselves from endorsing Russia's behaviour now.

[PACOX]

Which country exactly gave up it's nukes to the US and was invaded?

What?
How do you figure that was the point being made? 'Giving up your nukes does actually mean weapons were taken from one country and given to another...

It has nothing to do with who you give your nukes to. The point is that nukes offer countries a certain level of insurance from foreign intervention. Also that even bad actors are handled differently when they have kept their programs. See Gaddafi and Saddam, who were propped up by the US in the first place vs NK. The former are dead and the latter gets to openly make threats with repercussions. Guess who gave up their nukes.

You think the US would still be cool Pakistan or have tried to destabilize Pakistan or India if either country didn't have bombs? No way in hell. You think the US would have destabilized South America if there were still bombs down there? How about Russia messing with its neighbors? You think the rest of NATO still likes Turkey? Let's ask Iran how well ceasing their program went.

Come on. We're talking the about backbone of international politics post-WW2.

I would like to know why statements from the state departments of the US or Russia shouldn't be taken with heavy doses of salt?

[Corvus]

South Africa gave up its nuclear weapons program and has been fine from outside interference.

[Easo]

I find the @PACOX attempt to drag USA as instigator into this fascinating. Do tell me - how are they instigating this? Did they force Russia to make ultimatums, annex Crimea, support separatists and save their asses with direct military interventions back in 2014/2015? We have talked multiple pages about simple fucking shit - Ukraine has the absolute right to choose whom to join, Russia has zero say in what Ukraine does, this is 21st century, not M&R pact with spheres of influence.
So, again, what does this has to do with USA?
P.S.
By now few tens of thousands have evacuated to Russia from the "republics". Fire exchanges continues, without a question heaviest in years.

[Forogil]

Well Ukraine is supposed to a neutral country. If anything it's supposed to neutral when it comes to siding with the US or Russia in the spirit of it giving up the nukes it inhereited from the USSR.

First and foremost that is plain Wrong.
The Budapest memorandum was signed when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons:
The first item is that Russia (and other signatories including the US) promised to protect the borders of Ukraine. Conquering Crimea and supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine shows how much Russia follows that. The second item is that Russia (and other signatories including the US) promised to not threat the borders of Ukraine - how is Russia currently following that? The third item reaffirms Ukraine's sovereignty - and seeking security agreements on their own; meaning it can be neutral or aligning with others as Ukraine sees fit.

Second it doesn't make sense to say that Ukraine must be neutral between Russia and the US so it cannot NATO, but join Russia. That's not what neutral mean.

So I can summarize your statements:

Its a bunch of crap.

[Corvus]

Putin has said that the situation in eastern Ukraine is rapidly deteriorating. That kind of happens when you are actively trying to do that. And Russian politicians are now openly saying Russia needs to invade to protect the Russian speakers.

On top of that the separatist have just announced the mobilization of the entire make population and banned any from leaving in the evacuation.

They are also conducting the heaviest shelling seen in years, including using weapons banned under the Minsk agreement. The object is to hair Ukrainian forces into firing back and provide a pretext for Russian interference. The Ukrainian military have said that they have ordered troops not to fire back but Russian news is still reporting 'attacks' on separatists

Meanwhile the Russian OTH radar has switched to a frequency generally only used in wartime to try and spot stealth aircraft, which Ukraine doesn't have.

Armoured vehicles belonging to airborne units have been outfitted with parachutes ready for airborne insertion. Seriously, I had no idea Russia parachuted in armoured vehicles.

And tanks on the border have been seen being outfitted with external fuel tanks, which is only done when expecting a long drive with uncertain supplies.

It might still be all posturing but Russia is working hard on the narrative Ukraine wants to attack/genocide the separatists. I guess it is mostly for internal consumption, but surely the Russian population can't be buying anything so blatantly made up.

[Gaaz]

Putin has said that the situation in eastern Ukraine is rapidly deteriorating. That kind of happens when you are actively trying to do that. And Russian politicians are now openly saying Russia needs to invade to protect the Russian speakers.

On top of that the separatist have just announced the mobilization of the entire make population and banned any from leaving in the evacuation.

They are also conducting the heaviest shelling seen in years, including using weapons banned under the Minsk agreement. The object is to hair Ukrainian forces into firing back and provide a pretext for Russian interference. The Ukrainian military have said that they have ordered troops not to fire back but Russian news is still reporting 'attacks' on separatists

Meanwhile the Russian OTH radar has switched to a frequency generally only used in wartime to try and spot stealth aircraft, which Ukraine doesn't have.

Armoured vehicles belonging to airborne units have been outfitted with parachutes ready for airborne insertion. Seriously, I had no idea Russia parachuted in armoured vehicles.

And tanks on the border have been seen being outfitted with external fuel tanks, which is only done when expecting a long drive with uncertain supplies.

It might still be all posturing but Russia is working hard on the narrative Ukraine wants to attack/genocide the separatists. I guess it is mostly for internal consumption, but surely the Russian population can't be buying anything so blatantly made up.

There is so much BS in that text, I do not even know where to start... Just to set things straight, I am a Ukrainian, at least partially. My parents live here in Kiev, and I spend most of my time in Kiev as well because I work here. I am actually writing from Kiev right now. Now that my "expertise" and "interest" in the situation has been established lets get to the facts:
1. The situation is deteriorating. And it has nothing to do with the separatists. We have actual SS insignia wearing lunatics in control of much of the military. They really need this war, just like the Pentagon does, to justify their existence. Just this night, a water tower that supplied water to the unrecognized republics had been destroyed. When OSCE press tried to investigate what happened, they were shot at from the Ukrainian encampment, which just happened to be about 500m from the site. Damage was done from the Ukrainian side, that is easy to check. SO unless someone is trying to say that "separatists" set up 2 mobile artillery units right near Ukrainian trenches, there is only one explanation that comes to mind.
2. Minsk agreement is publicly mocked by the Ukrainian press and those in power. It was never the intention to uphold them. It is extremely easy to check for yourself - according to the agreement, artillery pieces and MBT units can not be closer than 50km to the gray zone. Remember that train with tanks a couple of months back that was first touted as a Russian supply train, and then ended up on a Ukrainian controlled cargo station? Yeah, that is happening all the time. That "aid" US sent is also making some people very trigger happy.
3. No idea about radar frequencies. But seeing that Ukraine has actually already used recently purchased Bairaktar war drones in the area, as well as frequently flies unarmed drones (custom rigged with explosives according to some oppositional local news, which are being pressured more and more into either silence, or taken over and shut down - more on that later), all of which is banned by the abovementioned Minsk agreement... Drones typically have a much lower radar profile, so it is possible that Russians want to change how their radars operate for better awareness. Also, there were several close encounters of Russian Fighters with US planes over the Black Sea. Naturally, they do want to know if there are F-35 and the like flying over Ukrainian territory as well.
4. Parachutes on vehicles and external fuel tanks, it all seems quite logical. The only thing that can make Russians invade is a direct attack of the Ukrainian military to take control of the separatist regions. They are preparing for that scenario. And it looks like the Ukrainian side was actually considering that option up until recently. Right now however, main forces were ordered to stand down. But the SS nut jobs (which are about a 5th of the forces that are in direct contact, 20000 give or take) are having a field day over it. They lack in some of the large caliber punch that the main forces have (even our military idiots are not that dumb to arm them with heavy shit with no restrictions), so they set up provocations instead.
5. It is not a narrative that the Ukraine wants to attack and eradicate separatists. It is a cold and hard reality and has nothing to do with Russian propaganda. The question is the extent they are willing to go. Government controlled forces draw the line at financial stability of the rest of the country, or at minimal financial losses at most. That is why President Zelensky (never voted for that clown, so I refuse to call him "my" or "our" President) asked Biden to stop with the fearmongering and said that US only makes things worse. On the other hand you have "Azov" battalion and the likes ("Tornado" if you really want to get as extreme as it gets, think WW2 SS fanatics to get an idea). Chanting "hang all Russians" is like "Hello" over there. And there are at least 600000 civilians with Russian passports over there. Oh, and by the way, Azov and the like are not subject to the Ukrainian command structure. So the President can order what he likes, they will do as they see fit.
6. Evacuation of the civilian population goes full swing. Separatists are not banning anything. People leave the area in all directions - towards Ukraine mainland and towards Russia. Ukrainian forces and SS whackos also do not stop those who are trying to flee as far as I am aware, so that is a plus.
Look, these past several days had been intense over here. We can very much do without "western help". Did anyone seriously think that sending hundreds of tons of armaments to Ukraine would deescalate the situation? Your government wants to profit from this war financially, as well as politically, I get it. You want a circus show to watch and chew popcorn. Russia wants NATO bases to NOT be within a 4 minutes flight from their major population centers. Just like US would not want Russian bases in Mexico, Cuba and Canada. Also understandable. For us the stakes are a little higher than that. I do not care if separatist regions stay or leave. It is their choice. They are not captured and held by force, just like Crimea is not. Vast majority of population over there considers themselves Russian, even if they do not have Russian passports. And many do have them. Just stay out of this. Take your "aid" and shove it up some "defense contractor's" ass for all I care.

[Corvus]

My government isn't in Europe or the US. They aren't involved or pushing anything.

It's funny how there just happened to be a Russian news crew on hand and just so happened to be filming the water station when the explosion happened. Oh, and those who have seen it have stated it is very obviously a controlled planted explosion, not an artillery strike

And all the talk of mobilisation? That is coming directly from the separatists themselves. They are the ones making those claims so you can take it up with then.

And it is beyond ludicrous that the Ukrainian military would launch any kind of operations against the separatists, and certainly not saboteurs who speak Polish (and that is a claim directly from the separatists themselves again) with 190,000 Russian troops sitting in the border and Russian politicians vocal about interfering

[JohnBrown1917]

South Africa gave up its nuclear weapons program and has been fine from outside interference.

Not having any neighbours with a far stronger military does help.

[Gaaz]

My government isn't in Europe or the US. They aren't involved or pushing anything.

It's funny how there just happened to be a Russian news crew on hand and just so happened to be filming the water station when the explosion happened. Oh, and those who have seen it have stated it is very obviously a controlled planted explosion, not an artillery strike

The only filming when the explosion happened I am aware of is the security camera recording on site. Which you know, did not notice anyone approaching the installation to plant explosives. Also, a grand f-ing idea of destroying your own water supply just to prove a point. I would really like to see a person who:
a) watches water pipelines at night (because that is when it happened)
b) can instantly tell if it was a controlled demolition or a munitions hit
c) managed to testify to western press their info even though this happened just a few hours ago, even though they had to get away from the gray zone (where western press is not allowed (by their own governments actually. E.g. US state department specifically forbids US press in that area), aside from OSCE members, travel to Kiev, arrange an interview etc...
Do you see the problem here, or do wee need to dive into that even further?
OSCE is not a Russian news crew by the way. They did have a guide with them, obviously. But they are directly subordinate to the UN. That is where they got their info about drones by the way - they made a call to the headquarters and UN managed to pressure Ukraine to admit that the spotter drone that was following the crew was Ukrainian.
Mobilization you mention is indeed happening. It affects all reserve military personnel and as a special measure in the (unrecognized) Lugansk Republic (not in the larger Donetsk Republic), men between 18 and 55 of age are forbidden to leave the area (though again, nothing states that they have to serve at all, let alone engage in combat). Women, children, elderly are free to do as they please. Just you wait, Lugansk city will raise untold millions of combatants, arm them with the latest and greatest, will storm the 100k of entrenched Ukrainian Army ranks, then overtake Kiev city... Any day now.
Again, the Ukrainian military was ordered to stand down by the President of Ukraine. The problem is, first, there are enough foreign actors that are beyond their control, and second and perhaps the most important of all - the 20000 whackos that chant "kill all Russians", have SS insignia on their uniform and raise SS and swastika flags. These groups do not want de-escalation.

[Easo]

There is so much BS in that text,

Funny, as it is in yours.
Things like OSCE getting shot at by Ukrainians at the kindergarden (they were let within 50 meters. You can question that, though we all saw cartload of photos of the explosion zone anyway), for example, or the "NAZIS EVERYWHERE IN ARMY" even though this is not 2014 anymore.
Oh yeah, and the supposed suicidalness of military at this moment considering Russia's forces on the border. No, Kiev is not planning to invade Donbas now, it would be insane and your goverment is insane only in the propaganda of a certain country.
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