Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Bakis]

Wow. That is a massive amount of aid.. The US is doing good. I will be sure to buy more American products from now on.

It is good and much needed arms from not only US but many other countries.
Just want to point out something that might be lost to many in various countries (including some loud GOP senators) making a talkingpoint of:
this is lowering our own stocks of said weapons thus making us/our allies be more at risk
or
people thinking these actions from the West is a matter of "being nice to Ukraine/"Just cause"/ <whatever>.

It is in the interest of all of EU & US and especially NATO interest to give the aid, its actually forced.
What is a deterrent without a will to enforce it? Both EU & US behaved much like France and UK did during the prelude do WW2 and Germany constantly promising this is the last annexation, offensive move etc.
Same can be said about how Russia has been dealt with by EU & US. Chechnya, Georgia, Chrimea, Syria and more, it took this last war on Ukraine for it to dawn that Putler wont stop.

It is in our best interest (and some good will) to provide arms to Ukraine. Russia turning into what more and more resemble a facist warmongering state using the same playbook as Nazi Germany has been ignored and has to be stopped.
There has been warning voices in every shape and form but it didnt sink in untill now that this wont stop and the days of trying to get a better Russia through trade, international cooperation, weak diplomacy and concessions wont lead anywhere.
Examples of a complete 180 in regards to Germany and Nordstream, Finland & Sweden and NATO just to name some.
That train has passed, Russia needs be stopped.
Russia will more probably than not end up with some landgrabs given the usual terror tactics that will ultimately force in this case Ukraine to make concessions in formal/informal peacetalks with Russia.
So Ukraine will be a loser in this war beyond obviously already being so in terms of the human cost and structural cost.

But Russia... it will be crippled for a decade at minimum. None of the western countries trust it and it has to pay so these crimes aren't repeated the next time Putler or a possibly equally delusional successor with dreams of "a grander Russia" by military agression and other offensive means is in power.
The only difficulty the West face, given we continue to play the same tune, is the dilemma that punishing too hard and too long has to be weighted against keeping the possibility for domestic preassure within Russia and nurture it.
There is a cost to economic hardship put onto russians, the braindrain, the alienating in sports, making Russia a pariah etc.
Not only to the will for the average russian to question Kremlins lies but that Putler undoubtedly will tighten his grip more and more every time he is faced with opposition of that percieved fifth columnists.

However that is an entirely new topic of its own.

[PhaelixWW]

Just want to point out something that might be lost to many in various countries (including some loud GOP senators) making a talkingpoint of:
this is lowering our own stocks of said weapons thus making us/our allies be more at risk

It brings to mind an old Benjamin Franklin quote: "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure."

[Mihalik]

It brings to mind an old Benjamin Franklin quote: "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure."

I'm convinced had Putin's little Ukrainian Anschluss project succeeded he would have Sudetenland-ed Georgia and the Baltics.

[PhaelixWW]

I'm convinced had Putin's little Ukrainian Anschluss project succeeded he would have Sudetenland-ed Georgia and the Baltics.

I think pretty much everyone agrees that that was a goal of his. It's basically his signature move.

The Baltic countries are NATO and EU now, though. That's why he's concentrated his expansion on Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova.

[Mihalik]

I think pretty much everyone agrees that that was a goal of his. It's basically his signature move.

The Baltic countries are NATO and EU now, though. That's why he's concentrated his expansion on Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova.

I think it would have been escalating towards the Baltics, if he could have raked up enough wins.

[jonnysensible]

I think it would have been escalating towards the Baltics, if he could have raked up enough wins.

dont forget Kazakhstan, some dopey russian mouthpiece threatened them the other day for disloyalty.

mongolia right now must be looking at russian and china and thinking ut oh.

[Iphie]

dont forget Kazakhstan, some dopey russian mouthpiece threatened them the other day for disloyalty.

mongolia right now must be looking at russian and china and thinking ut oh.

Those central Asian republics recently said that they would be looking in banding together for mutual protection in light of the invasion of Ukraine, and the messed up part is that they are in an ALLIANCE with Russia, and they're looking at banding together for mutual protection...

In addition Kazakhstan has allowed pro-Ukraine demonstrations AND the president has announced that he's looking into limiting the power of the president and expanding the power of parliament. I can totally see why a russian mouthpiece would say they are disloyal.

As for Mongolia, well, some russian mp did mention that he had information about plans by the US to build biolabs there. Silly US building biolabs in places Russia wants to invade...(I suspect that China might get annoyed at that though.)

[Mihalik]

As for Mongolia, well, some russian mp did mention that he had information about plans by the US to build biolabs there. Silly US building biolabs in places Russia wants to invade...(I suspect that China might get annoyed at that though.)

I'm pretty sure China has been annoyed by all this behind close doors for a while now. While they haven't condemned the Russians outright, the Chinese government hasn't lifted a finger to help either, despite explicitly being asked for help.

I'm also pretty sure the Chinese are quite busy with their lockdowns right now, the economics of all that and how this war has disrupted their whole Belt and Road investments already.

[Gabriel]

Jesus. Not sure which reaction is more appropriate:

a) What, are there 72 virgins for each Russian, too?

b) How can the average Russian watch this and think "yes, this is what we want, to be purged in fire hotter than the interior of the sun -- for Putin's war in Ukraine". How are they watching this and not panicking? How are the troops (or what Russia has that passes for troops) looking at this without immediately thinking "oh shit, we're being sent to die"?

How are Russians seeing their state-run TV saying they're looking forward to nuclear war, because they'd all die?

Because ROOOSSIA STROOOONK!

To elaborate: In the russian mentality everything you have, including your life, ultimate belongs to the Tsar. You are only the custodian of everything you have. If the Tsar wants to have it, you must give it to him because he was the only person with actual ownership of it.

[Iphie]

I'm pretty sure China has been annoyed by all this behind close doors for a while now. While they haven't condemned the Russians outright, the Chinese government hasn't lifted a finger to help either, despite explicitly being asked for help.

I'm also pretty sure the Chinese are quite busy with their lockdowns right now, the economics of all that and how this war has disrupted their whole Belt and Road investments already.

I'd say that's almost the same thing as condemning it, and yes I know that they have a serious covid outbreak, which is causing all kinds of social upheaval. I've been reading about the Chinese initiatives in Africa and it appears that Congo has said, thanks for the money now get out, Kenya did the same as well apparently...and guess where they showed up this week.

And then there is this...

As far as I have been able to find out it's still valid, but no one really knows what it means.

more recent article

Apologies if this has already been discussed, I have not read every single post.

[Saradain]

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...ne-2022-04-28/

LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - Russia's foreign spy chief accused the United States and Poland on Thursday of plotting to gain a sphere of influence in Ukraine, a claim denied by Warsaw as disinformation aimed at sowing distrust among Kyiv's supporters.

Sergei Naryshkin, the chief of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), cited unpublished intelligence that he said showed the United States and Poland, NATO allies, were plotting to restore Polish control over part of western Ukraine.

"According to the intelligence received by Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, Washington and Warsaw are working on plans to establish Poland's tight military and political control over its historical possessions in Ukraine," Naryshkin said in a rare statement released by the SVR.

Poland denied the claim and said it was disinformation spread by Moscow.

Damn it, I left Poland too early, could have been present to witness this!

[Rasulis]

I'd say that's almost the same thing as condemning it, and yes I know that they have a serious covid outbreak, which is causing all kinds of social upheaval. I've been reading about the Chinese initiatives in Africa and it appears that Congo has said, thanks for the money now get out, Kenya did the same as well apparently...and guess where they showed up this week.

And then there is this...

As far as I have been able to find out it's still valid, but no one really knows what it means.

more recent article

Apologies if this has already been discussed, I have not read every single post.

Don't forget. Ukraine was part of Belt & Road. China already invested $10B in Ukraine.

[Kaleredar]

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...ne-2022-04-28/



Damn it, I left Poland too early, could have been present to witness this!

…like, is Russia seriously trying to get other countries to believe this?

As I said previously, they could cease trying to justify this nonsense, save us all the eye-rolling, and say they just want a chunk of Ukraine.

[PhaelixWW]

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...ne-2022-04-28/

Sergei Naryshkin, the chief of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), cited unpublished intelligence that he said showed the United States and Poland, NATO allies, were plotting to restore Polish control over part of western Ukraine.

The story in which Russia, which is currently invading Ukraine, accuses Poland, which is currently receiving millions of refugees from Ukraine fleeing said Russian invasion, of attempted to take over parts of Ukraine...

...as told by a professional Russian storyteller.

That's QAnon-levels of out-of-touch-with-reality.

[zorkuus]

…like, is Russia seriously trying to get other countries to believe this?

As I said previously, they could cease trying to justify this nonsense, save us all the eye-rolling, and say they just want a chunk of Ukraine.

Autocratic shitholes only know to double down on lies and propaganda. At some point it naturally reaches absurdity.

[Vladier]

…like, is Russia seriously trying to get other countries to believe this?

As I said previously, they could cease trying to justify this nonsense, save us all the eye-rolling, and say they just want a chunk of Ukraine.

I sometimes wonder if it's actually lies to them, or they honestly believe the pure delirium they spew. It wouldn't surprise me either way, really.

[Mihalik]

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...ne-2022-04-28/

Damn it, I left Poland too early, could have been present to witness this!

[Kallisto]

I sometimes wonder if it's actually lies to them, or they honestly believe the pure delirium they spew. It wouldn't surprise me either way, really.

It is likely "Say this or there's a good window view I want you to see."

[Afrospinach]

…like, is Russia seriously trying to get other countries to believe this?

As I said previously, they could cease trying to justify this nonsense, save us all the eye-rolling, and say they just want a chunk of Ukraine.

Someone, somewhere will believe this and a few of them may be Ukrainians.

I saw an outline from someone in some vid a while ago about what Russia wants:

The canal to Crimea unblocked(I think everyone is aware of this)

Land bridge to Crimea(this too)

To control the gas field to the west of Slovansk. Now this I had not heard of before, it is old news but in 2010 it was discovered and it has been suggested that Russia wants to control it so it does not threaten their own economy.

This last bit suddenly makes the war have a lot more sense and I have not seen it mentioned nearly as often as the former points.

[PhaelixWW]

I saw an outline from someone in some vid a while ago about what Russia wants:

The canal to Crimea unblocked(I think everyone is aware of this)

Land bridge to Crimea(this too)

To control the gas field to the west of Slovansk. Now this I had not heard of before, it is old news but in 2010 it was discovered and it has been suggested that Russia wants to control it so it does not threaten their own economy.

This last bit suddenly makes the war have a lot more sense and I have not seen it mentioned nearly as often as the former points.

It was touched on, but not in depth:

That entirely depends on what his goal was in the first place. If he was desperate to keep Ukraine (and its newly-found oil deposits) from joining NATO (and therefore being placed out of Russia's reach), then he won't consider that a victory at all.

This was posted earlier ITT, but it's a good discussion on Putin's potential motivations in Ukraine.

That is probably the video to which you were referring.