Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

Russian military exercises were meant to end today, but surprise surprise Putin has extended them.

[Biglog]

The wild thing in all of this is that Russia is once again repeating the same mistake world powers have made over and over for the past 50-100 years. A more powerful military power can defeat the military of another country. But it's a whole different challenge to try to occupy a country that doesn't want you there. Vietnam, Afghanistan under the USSR, Iraq, Afghanistan again, etc. It does not ever end well. Russia would/will probably be able to defeat Ukraine's military. But they are likely to face a long and bloody resistance to try to hold Ukraine. History has shown over and over again that it's very difficult for an unwanted occupier to control a country regardless of a superior military. "You'll be welcomed with open arms as liberators...", that line has been used more than a few times.

The fringes of Ukraine that were economically neglected after independence from the USSR might be willing to be annexed by Russia like Crimean citizens did thinking that it will improve their situation. But the majority of Ukraine (or anywhere else they are thinking about annexing) won't be so willing. It seems predictable that an occupied Ukraine would be a miserable cycle of guerilla resistance and tough crackdowns in response.

[Corvus]

Well this is unexpected - China's foreign minister at the Munich Conference called for the territorial integrity of all nations, including Ukraine, to he respected. Maybe they aren't so in lockstep with Russia after all. (They consider Taiwan their territory so they don't see it as hypocrisy.)

They also said that NATO should stop expanding at the same time.

[Levelfive]

Some of these have already been addressed and debunked here, but given our very own pro-Kremlin forces on these boards, I thought this was interesting: https://medium.com/dfrlab/how-ten-fa...a-c67e786c6085

"How ten false flag narratives were promoted by pro-Kremlin media
Russian media actively portrays the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as victims of Ukrainian aggression"

[Forogil]

Well this is unexpected - China's foreign minister at the Munich Conference called for the territorial integrity of all nations, including Ukraine, to he respected. Maybe they aren't so in lockstep with Russia after all. (They consider Taiwan their territory so they don't see it as hypocrisy.)

Interestingly China hasn't even recognized the annexation of Crimea.

Just to be clear: being in lockstep could suggest that China were a junior partner to Russia, but I believe China has a somewhat different view on the relationship.

[Shadowferal]

China; not quite the voice of reason, but one that maybe Putin will hear.

[Easo]

No, China does the political ambiguity thing, never fully supporting one or another side. They have been doing it for a long time.

[DarkAmbient]

In a completely unsurprising turn of events...

Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukrainian ‘provocations’ for the escalation of the current situation in the Donbas in a call with French President Emmanuel Macron today

“The Russian president noted that the reason for the escalation is the provocations by the Ukrainian security force,” according to a Kremlin readout of the call, which also said however that the two leaders “believe it is important to intensify efforts to find solutions through diplomatic means”.

The Kremlin also said Putin told Macron that Nato countries continue “to pump Ukraine with modern weapons“ which “pushes Kyiv to solve the so-called military problem.”

“In the end, civilians in the Donbas are suffering, and have to then have to be evacuated to Russia to protect them the from growing violence,” the Kremlin readout said, referring to the recent mass-scale evacuation of citizens from the Donbas to Russia that the west has called a manufactured war scare aimed at creating a pretext for an invasion into Ukraine.

[Forogil]

In a completely unsurprising turn of events...

Well, on the other hand it doesn't seem lost yet: https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world...aim/ar-AAU5Y1r

As per the official statement, the two countries foreign ministers will meet in the coming days and will work on a possible summit at the highest level with Russia, Ukraine and allies to establish a new security order in Europe, the Elysee palace said.

[YUPPIE]

it's going to happen

[Machismo]

it's going to happen

Man, how many times have you been wrong before, in your calling for war?

It's weird that you Putin supporters want him to kill innocent people.

[jonnysensible]

Man, how many times have you been wrong before, in your calling for war?

It's weird that you Putin supporters want him to kill innocent people.

i think it looks likely to happen as well now?

they should bring back privateering contracts so i can become a pirate and attack russian oligarch assets.

me going before the queen : 'majesty i have taken control of chelsea football club and half of belgravia'

[caervek]

Not looking good now

Substantial amount of hardware on the move towards the border and every video of gunfighting/artillery seems to be worse than the last. According to CBS the U.S. has intelligence that Russian troops have received orders to proceed with an invasion of Ukraine. “The commanders on the ground are making specific plans", that would tally with what's been seen on the ground and posted to social media.

[Reeve]

i think it looks likely to happen as well now?

they should bring back privateering contracts so i can become a pirate and attack russian oligarch assets.

me going before the queen : 'majesty i have taken control of chelsea football club and half of belgravia'

Russia has been privateering for years. They let "private citizens" perform ransomware attacks and hack millions of dollars from western countries, and refuse to arrest them or otherwise hold them accountable. They've effectively given these "private citizens" letters of marque and let them go nuts. Not a whole lot different from the privateers of the 1600s, who went after gold instead of dollars, euros, and pounds.

[PACOX]

It's like someone in Russia is ex-Cold War era KGB and knows exactly how to run psyops against the the US.

[Kreuger]

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/sta...C-zavA9cApAAAA

US official and another person with knowledge of the matter tell
@NBCNews
recent intelligence shows Russian military officials have been given an order to go ahead with an invasion.
@joshNBCNews@ckubeNBC

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-698088

"Russia's Aeronautical Information Center issued a NOTAM (a Notice to Airmen) on Sunday which will close most of the airspace over the Sea of Azov starting at midnight between Sunday and Monday."


Dont know what to belive anylonger

[Easo]

Man, how many times have you been wrong before, in your calling for war?

It's weird that you Putin supporters want him to kill innocent people.

This one time he is probably right. What Moscow is saying is opposite to they are doing, it is nothing else but invasion preparation. Or, in the best case, which is becoming a fever dream each passing hour - a way to force Ukraine in compliance.

"Oh we tried to achieve peace until the last moment, but Kiev attacked and forced us to safeguard civilians/Russian citizens, blah blah".

It's like someone in Russia is ex-Cold War era KGB and knows exactly how to run psyops against the the US.

Meh, no need for special psyops. Just look at the bullshit millions believed during 2016 elections. Probably the most cost effective thing Russia has ever done in regards to information wars.

[Machismo]

This one time he is probably right. What Moscow is saying is opposite to they are doing, it is nothing else but invasion preparation. Or, in the best case, which is becoming a fever dream each passing hour - a way to force Ukraine in compliance.

"Oh we tried to achieve peace until the last moment, but Kiev attacked and forced us to safeguard civilians/Russian citizens, blah blah".



Meh, no need for special psyops. Just look at the bullshit millions believed during 2016 elections. Probably the most cost effective thing Russia has ever done in regards to information wars.

Of course you can eventually be right, if you just keep moving goalposts.

That's the problem with warmongers.

[Easo]

3-party talks have failed again (Kiev, Donbas and Moscow), artillery bombardments continues, crapload of Z marked vehicles of all kinds in the border regions and fleet of landing ships are partying in pond of Azov.
1-2 days, I guess...

Of course you can eventually be right, if you just keep moving goalposts.

That's the problem with warmongers.

I am not entirely sure how his obsession with war is warmongering per se. He is not saying "Let's go to war!", AFAIK.

[Machismo]

3-party talks have failed again (Kiev, Donbas and Moscow), artillery bombardments continues, crapload of Z marked vehicles of all kinds in the border regions and fleet of landing ships are partying in pond of Azov.
1-2 days, I guess...



I am not entirely sure how his obsession with war is warmongering per se. He is not saying "Let's go to war!", AFAIK.

He has long bragged that he wants someone more like Putin to be in charge of the united States.