Russian invasion of Ukraine

[YUPPIE]

so if there's a brutal war still ongoing, is putin going to really go "victory!" in some cringe ass parade and expect anyone to believe it when Ukraine is ramping up their own offense and are striking into Russia itself every so often

[Iphie]

Did Reddit just decide Putin wanted to be done by May 9th?

It's a fairly popular idea that Putin wants to be done by May 9th because of victory parade. It's not just reddit, but also real military analysts saying it. Now whatever the truth, this is mainly speculation due to the significance of the date and the parade. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin just declared victory on that day, but you know, we'll see.

[Gabriel]

That's cute, but that is still only your opinion.

I'm sick and tired of people not understanding russian mentality at all, and going suprised_pikachu.png every time russia does something that we westerners think is illogical or "crazy".

[Specialka]

I'm sick and tired of people not understanding russian mentality at all, and going suprised_pikachu.png every time russia does something that we westerners think is illogical or "crazy".

Dude, I have lived there years ago, I know russian "mentality".

They already stated to do so by training nco (far too late for this war obviously).

[Gabriel]

Dude, I have lived there years ago, I know russian "mentality".

They already stated to do so by training nco (far too late for this war obviously).

Are you russian or did you just live there for couple of years?

[Specialka]

Are you russian or did you just live there for couple of years?

Lived there for 3 years in the 2000, mostly Moscow and St Petersburg, but still visited a lot of countryside.

[Cynep]

Not so sure Western power would support an invasion of Russia. I have not seen any evidence supporting that (if it was feasible in the first place).

There is no direct evidence neither for nor against such support, because it's an imaginary scenario at this moment, and high-ranked officials have better things to discuss with the press. Circumstantial evidence, however, is the following: (1) US Defense Secretary stated that his country wants a weakened Russia; (2) Lend-Lease Act implies that Russian Federation is equivalent to Nazi Germany; (3) USA is considering whether to label Russia as "state sponsor of terrorism"; (4) Blinken, Austin and Pelosi visited Kyiv and made strong-worded pro-Ukraine statements. All these are signs of a Western power indicating a supportive stance to a hypothetical non-MAD-triggering invasion into Russia if it was actually possible. Orban and Le Pen would probably support Russia in that scenario, but they aren't powers.

In any case, internal turmoil in Russia is magnitudes more likely than Ukrainian/Chinese invasion fanfic.

[Specialka]

There is no direct evidence neither for nor against such support, because it's an imaginary scenario at this moment, and high-ranked officials have better things to discuss with the press. Circumstantial evidence, however, is the following: (1) US Defense Secretary stated that his country wants a weakened Russia; (2) Lend-Lease Act implies that Russian Federation is equivalent to Nazi Germany; (3) USA is considering whether to label Russia as "state sponsor of terrorism"; (4) Blinken, Austin and Pelosi visited Kyiv and made strong-worded pro-Ukraine statements. All these are signs of a Western power indicating a supportive stance to a hypothetical non-MAD-triggering invasion into Russia if it was actually possible. Orban and Le Pen would probably support Russia in that scenario, but they aren't powers.

In any case, internal turmoil in Russia is magnitudes more likely than Ukrainian/Chinese invasion fanfic.

Do you imagine the support needed to invade a country like Russia ? I mean getting Russia out of Ukraine would already be a "weakened Russia".

[zealo]

The Special Announcement is most probably to say that the "Special Operation" has ended and is a success.

I don’t really buy that this is the big announcement they’re planning.

Proclaiming victory would still leave them on Ukranian soil, the war wouldn’t end just from that with Ukraine increasingly being supplied with weapons that’ll enable more significant counteroffensives.

[Iphie]

Seems Azovstal is getting evacuated:

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/stat...74213728190468

100 civilians are on their way to Zaporizhzhia

I don’t really buy that this is the big announcement they’re planning.

Proclaiming victory would still leave them on Ukranian soil, the war wouldn’t end just from that with Ukraine increasingly being supplied with weapons that’ll enable more significant counteroffensives.

Proclaiming victory would allow a cease-fire to be declared, and then negotiations for peace to start, for real. Russia would save face and be in a position to blame Ukraine if they reject the offer.

[Cynep]

Do you imagine the support needed to invade a country like Russia ? I mean getting Russia out of Ukraine would already be a "weakened Russia".

As I said, from practical standpoint it's fanfic. But there is a political will to make Russia incapable of invading their neighbors.

[Gorsameth]

Seems Azovstal is getting evacuated:

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/stat...74213728190468

100 civilians are on their way to Zaporizhzhia




Proclaiming victory would allow a cease-fire to be declared, and then negotiations for peace to start, for real. Russia would save face and be in a position to blame Ukraine if they reject the offer.

Would Ukraine accept a cease-fire?
Would Ukraine accept negotiations that do not involve a full retreat of Russia, including from Crimea?

Russia declaring victory does nothing when Ukraine is determined to secure their pre-2014 border.

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As I said, from practical standpoint it's fanfic. But there is a political will to make Russia incapable of invading their neighbors.

keeping the sanctions in place so do that. Cripple the economy to the point where they can't afford a war.

[Iphie]

Would Ukraine accept a cease-fire?
Would Ukraine accept negotiations that do not involve a full retreat of Russia, including from Crimea?

Russia declaring victory does nothing when Ukraine is determined to secure their pre-2014 border.

Obviously those are considerations, I think Ukraine WOULD accept a cease-fire, as we can see it seems to work in Mariupol, this cease fire would have to lead to negotiations, and those can take a while but there's less pressure when no one is shooting at each other. (for a similar situation, see Japan and Russia)

In the end I do think both sides need to be pragmatic and stop shooting if they want to negotiate peace or a settlement. (and if I had my way then pre-2014 borders would be the preferred outcome, alas I am not in charge of that.)

[Belize]

Well that was fun again. Not.

[MCMLXXXII]

Speaking of delirious posters, did Shillcker receive a permanent?

[Belize]

Speaking of delirious posters, did Shillcker receive a permanent?

We can only hope that posting Russian propaganda encouraging genocide finally was a step too far

[KrayZ33]

The Gepards are really not that advanced. They can be theoretically used for things like intercepting munitions, but really what they shine at is fucking up close air support. Helicopters, low flying jets. They can also interface with Stinger missiles, guiding the missiles with their radars. Then there's the fact that they very much can be used in direct fire roles, twin 35mm autocannons will absolutely fuck anything up that isn't a main battle tank out to a good couple of kilometre range. Like those things can shred Russian APCs like it's paper.

As I expected.
Now, a bit later, a lot of things become clear.
Not only is supply basically non-existent (due to the swiss not delivering), maintanance is horrible to provide as well, and military experts believe it will probably take months to properly train ukraine soldiers in using these.

[Finlandia WOAT]

I question whether Russia declaring an actual war and mobilizing their reserves would actually do anything if the logistics of the Russian army are completely exhausted.
More bodies rushing forward without support isn't going to break Ukraine.

Oh I agree, the time to mobilize if they wanted it to matter was 2 months ago, by the time they have built up their army Ukraine will also have built up, plus they'll have fancy NATO weapons and expertise in using them while Russia will have....meat for the grinder.

Edit: also YUPPIE got banned again? Lol that was quick

[Rasulis]

Nancy Pelosi was in Ukraine on Saturday. The Russian missed a chance to make their US supporters happy by dropping a bomb on her.

[Mihalik]

You really think that totalitarian dictatorship will implement a training program in their military that will foster independent thought and train officers not to follow their orders to a letter?

Fucking lol.
Lmao, even.

The whole 3 Sims and "Signature Illegible" incident highlights the limits of "independent thought" in the Russian military.

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As I expected.
Now, a bit later, a lot of things become clear.
Not only is supply basically non-existent (due to the swiss not delivering), maintanance is horrible to provide as well, and military experts believe it will probably take months to properly train ukraine soldiers in using these.

There are other ways of getting munitions. There's a bunch of stock existing in countries that operate Oerlikon guns. The 35mm Oerlikon is one of the most common projectile based anti air weapon systems used world wide. A bunch of countries also manufacture munitions under license, including places like Turkey and even China.

The "months" to train...that's an ideal conditions scenario. Crash course training is possible.

Would the crews be able to use them to their maximum potential efficiency? No.
Would they be able to shoot the guns at helicopters, APCs, tanks, entrenched positions? Absolutely. Again, keep in mind, these things are theoretically "anti-air guns"...in practice, these fucking things can fuck up anything you point them at short of an MBT, even those might take a pounding.

The only real concern here, is the Germans using all the issues you mentioned as excuses to delay deliveries as long as humanly possible. Something Scholz is waay to prone to doing.