Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Mihalik]

Considering how bad the war is going I would fully expect a replacement for Putin to grab the chance to walk away from this with minimal loss of face with both hands. Blame it all on Putin, call it a giant mistake and send the army home. If Ukraine wants Crimea back, please and thank you. Just GTFO.

That would be the sane thing to do, not the Russian thing to do. The Russian thing is to double down, triple down, and when standing shivering in the freezing breadlines they will shake their fists at the Google satellite watching them in orbit screaming about how "One day! One day they will reduce the rest of the world to the same level of abject misery!"

I don't think the Russian national consciousness is capable of imagining itself not being angry, miserable, serfs.

[Corvus]

Russians are back trying to storm AzovStal again

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share

[Deus Mortis]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1521369667260006400
In what is burning in Russia today, we have a polyethylene waste storage area of 500 square meters

Only seeing it posted from 1 source so sorry if the information proves to be old/bad.

[Finlandia WOAT]

Putin's successor just giving up and leaving Ukraine is wishful thinking, s/he will come from the same group of Russian nationalist mafia thugs who will desperately need a boost in PR aince they will xome in as unknowns ( as any good dictator Putin won't allow an obvious successor while he still breaths). "I will salvage the situation in Ukraine" seems the obvious solution, it's how Putin himself consolidated power via "avenging" Russia for their loss in the 1st Chechen War.

I also think Putin backing down will end his reign. He's really stuck here, he can't back down, he can't advance, the big Russian offensive has resulted in negligible gains in the Donbas while exhausting what's left of their combat power. The rumor that Russian was going to try and conquer Moldova makes sense to me, Putin needs *something*, even a nonsense Longshot like that.

[Mikah]

2) Someone comes into power who is Putin 2.0 and continues in his stead. The war continues as usual. Since Putin's propaganda paints him as essentially the Saviour of Russia and The Only Competent Politician Ever, discontent follows, and we repeat this variant (+1 to Putin version) or return to variant 1 after a coup.

This is very unlikely though.

Putin has a firm grip on all the oligarchs and the political entourage. Any dissident seems prone to suicide by two bullets in the back of the head these days, along with their family. All these people owe him their status, their money and their power, and he has shown to be ruthless about taking it back on a whim.

However, anyone taking his place will not have that kind of leverage. On the contrary, any new leader will need the full support of these people, who are longing for a safer environment, and are seeking to take back their investments, their freedom, their private jets and their boats, as well as their quality european life.

Ukraine and the USSR is Putin's fantasy. The rest of those are barely russian anymore and are not with him in this war. If he goes, I think it will be everyone for themselves. This war does not serve them at all.

[Poopymonster]

Awesome! I appreciate the update on what was actually burned.

- - - Updated - - -



Good hopefully this means making an enemy out of Israel, could always use some extra Mossad agents starting fires behind enemy lines.

It's worth noting, Mossad (and Israel in general) distinctly, do NOT fuck around.

[Voidism]

For anyone worried about Russia and their nuclear threats:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxOO0hCCSk4

[Azadina]

Russians are back trying to storm AzovStal again

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share

Great to hear. Let any of the ones still not grievously wounded or dead, line up and go storm Ukrainian machineguns in nuclear bunker tunnels. Without any assistance from armor. Could be the war will end as a result.

[Specialka]

Great to hear. Let any of the ones still not grievously wounded or dead, line up and go storm Ukrainian machineguns in nuclear bunker tunnels. Without any assistance from armor. Could be the war will end as a result.

Hyperbole more please....

[Azadina]

Hyperbole more please....

Go join the komrades and see if my version is close to reality on what to expect upon entering the tunnels. What do you think happens? Cheering for liberation and pizza party?

[Specialka]

Go join the komrades and see if my version is close to reality on what to expect upon entering the tunnels. What do you think happens? Cheering for liberation and pizza party?

Obviously, but ending the war ? Come on....

[Gaidax]

Good hopefully this means making an enemy out of Israel, could always use some extra Mossad agents starting fires behind enemy lines.

It won't come to this because Israel needs to contend with Russian presence in Syria, but I do find it odd that Russia is raring to pick up this completely unnecessary fight.

I absolutely don't see how that serves any of their interests, especially given that until this Israel was somewhat neutral in the approach due to above.

[Mihalik]

It won't come to this because Israel needs to contend with Russian presence in Syria, but I do find it odd that Russia is raring to pick up this completely unnecessary fight.

I absolutely don't see how that serves any of their interests, especially given that until this Israel was somewhat neutral in the approach due to above.

Of everything Russia has done in the past 5 months...What exactly has been in any of their best interest? Or sane for that matter?

[zorkuus]

It won't come to this because Israel needs to contend with Russian presence in Syria, but I do find it odd that Russia is raring to pick up this completely unnecessary fight.

I absolutely don't see how that serves any of their interests, especially given that until this Israel was somewhat neutral in the approach due to above.

Look, russia is now a totalitarian pariah state. All such states can do is double down on the crazy. Don't try to rationalize it.

[Vladier]

This is very unlikely though.

Putin has a firm grip on all the oligarchs and the political entourage. Any dissident seems prone to suicide by two bullets in the back of the head these days, along with their family. All these people owe him their status, their money and their power, and he has shown to be ruthless about taking it back on a whim.

However, anyone taking his place will not have that kind of leverage. On the contrary, any new leader will need the full support of these people, who are longing for a safer environment, and are seeking to take back their investments, their freedom, their private jets and their boats, as well as their quality european life.

Ukraine and the USSR is Putin's fantasy. The rest of those are barely russian anymore and are not with him in this war. If he goes, I think it will be everyone for themselves. This war does not serve them at all.

Which is why I return to the first variant. If whoever replaces Putin continues his escapades, they will be swiftly removed, since they will have neither the support of the people, nor of the inner state.

The safest option for everyone in case of Putin suddenly dying is to deescalate the conflict and blame everything on Putin, just like how Khrushchev threw the late Stalin under the bus of politics and engaged in diplomacy with the West, despite very likely being not without blood on his hands himself. It might not be entirely believable, but Russian state propaganda will manage to paint the Beloved Saviour Putin as a horrid monster just as easily now as it did with the Beloved Vozhd Stalin (who had actually greater accomplishments in leading USSR to victory, by industrializing the nation and eventually letting his actually competent generals lead the war effort, than Putin ever did); and Europe at least will be much more content knowing that there isn't a giant North Korea in their backyard and hope that they can apply sufficient trade pressure this time, without relying on Russian oil and gas as much, to prevent another such incident.

[Iphie]

Which is why I return to the first variant. If whoever replaces Putin continues his escapades, they will be swiftly removed, since they will have neither the support of the people, nor of the inner state.

The safest option for everyone in case of Putin suddenly dying is to deescalate the conflict and blame everything on Putin, just like how Khrushchev threw the late Stalin under the bus of politics and engaged in diplomacy with the West, despite very likely being not without blood on his hands himself. It might not be entirely believable, but Russian state propaganda will manage to paint the Beloved Saviour Putin as a horrid monster just as easily now as it did with the Beloved Vozhd Stalin (who had actually greater accomplishments in leading USSR to victory, by industrializing the nation and eventually letting his actually competent generals lead the war effort, than Putin ever did); and Europe at least will be much more content knowing that there isn't a giant North Korea in their backyard and hope that they can apply sufficient trade pressure this time, without relying on Russian oil and gas as much, to prevent another such incident.

That's a time honored thing to do in Russia/The Sovjet Union, isn't it? Blame the previous boss, Krushchev with Stalin, Yeltsin with Gorbachev, and Putin with everybody before him. (and all the others in between I can put in the right order, Andropov, Brezhnev, Tsjemenko etc.)

[Omians]

I really can't talk to my mom about politics or anything lately really. Just last night she brought it backup from whatever group she's in That russia only wanted to invade Ukraine so that they could get rid of Biden's money That hes got stashed away in Ukraine.

She gets this info from the same people that talk about the covid shot being used to sterilize the minority in the US populations.

Like " yes mom I know the Ukrainian president was an actor, he was also a comedian. With how much you've been hating on politicians you would think he wouldn't be less qualified for the job"

/rant

[Edge-]

I really can't talk to my mom about politics or anything lately really. Just last night she brought it backup from whatever group she's in That russia only wanted to invade Ukraine so that they could get rid of Biden's money That hes got stashed away in Ukraine.

She gets this info from the same people that talk about the covid shot being used to sterilize the minority in the US populations.

Like " yes mom I know the Ukrainian president was an actor, he was also a comedian. With how much you've been hating on politicians you would think he wouldn't be less qualified for the job"

/rant

You should remind her of Trump's long history in film and television, he was an actor too.

And Ronald Reagan!

[Gaidax]

That's a time honored thing to do in Russia/The Sovjet Union, isn't it? Blame the previous boss, Krushchev with Stalin, Yeltsin with Gorbachev, and Putin with everybody before him. (and all the others in between I can put in the right order, Andropov, Brezhnev, Tsjemenko etc.)

It almost goes without saying that whoever comes after Putin will do "that guy did this" and likely both Russians and West will buy it or at least pretend to buy it.

[Omians]

You should remind her of Trump's long history in film and television, he was an actor too.

And Ronald Reagan!

I try but she listens to so much of the conspircy group stuff filling facebook.

Like another one that the US aid going to Ukraine in the form of money is going through the bank Biden has control over and all that money will just go into his pockets and not help ukraine at all