Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Flarelaine]

what if said parts rely on western made parts?

Even if there are Western-made parts somewhere down the line, they will not impact Russian food production for years to come. Tractors are built to last decades and Russian hardware is generally capable of lasting that long, given proper maintenance.

[Gabriel]

Eh, maybe Russians can't build chips as good as Western ones, but a tractor does not need to be anything more than mechanical.

Sure. The whole topic of arguing whether russia can build agricultural equipment is null anyway. They can survive by tightening their belts like they've always done throughout history.

[Shalcker]

...are you including the number that Ukrainian farmers stole from the Russian military?

Sure, you can add them, that doesn't change overall picture.

We could also add armor Ukrainians sold or left in the field for DNR/LNR too.

Who said they were running out of missiles? Nobody had any doubt that Russia had enormous stockpiles of expired things to lob at civilian targets.

"you wouldn't be using it if you had enough normal missiles left" implies people do think Russia doesn't have enough for two months of low-intensity strikes.

What's in doubt is their... ability to keep their economy running, their ability to find suitable oil markets they can actually deliver to before OPEC, the US, or China ships it their faster, their ability to feed their troops, their ability to not have their warships distracted by drones and get sent to the bottom of the black sea resulting in hundreds and hundreds of Russian soldier deaths, their ability to actually repair equipment, their ability to fix faltering supply lines...

Okay, let's go point-by point:

• Economy is running just fine (RUB/USD is currently at 66.28 at MOEX), some imports are actually going down in price accordingly
• You don't need to "deliver before OPEC" because there is going to be oil shortage given that OPEC+ was already struggling with planned production increases and you want to knock out entire Russian exports; and increase in prices means even lower volumes at significant discounts potentially provide higher profits then old "business as usual".
• Even if we would ignore Russia being net food exporter - haven't you heard about hundreds of thousands tons of grain being taken from Ukraine? Those mobile bread ovens (that some mistaken for mobile crematoriums) are going to be busy.
• Official number is one dead and 29 missing if i remember correctly. It's war, you cannot win every time.
• Things do get repaired; we've seen pictures of trains with damaged equipment going back to Russia.
• Where exactly are those "faltering lines"? Ukrainians don't seem to make any progress in Donbass region while Russians are slowly moving ahead.

[Fuiking]

Sure, you can add them, that doesn't change overall picture.

We could also add armor Ukrainians sold or left in the field for DNR/LNR too.

"you wouldn't be using it if you had enough normal missiles left" implies people do think Russia doesn't have enough for two months of low-intensity strikes.


Okay, let's go point-by point:

• Economy is running just fine (RUB/USD is currently at 66.28 at MOEX), some imports are actually going down in price accordingly
• You don't need to "deliver before OPEC" because there is going to be oil shortage given that OPEC+ was already struggling with planned production increases and you want to knock out entire Russian exports; and increase in prices means even lower volumes at significant discounts potentially provide higher profits then old "business as usual".
• Even if we would ignore Russia being net food exporter - haven't you heard about hundreds of thousands tons of grain being taken from Ukraine? Those mobile bread ovens (that some mistaken for mobile crematoriums) are going to be busy.
• Official number is one dead and 29 missing if i remember correctly. It's war, you cannot win every time.
• Things do get repaired; we've seen pictures of trains with damaged equipment going back to Russia.
• Where exactly are those "faltering lines"? Ukrainians don't seem to make any progress in Donbass region while Russians are slowly moving ahead.

oh lol....... the whataboutism in this post is so strong.

So you admit your stealing the food from ukranians? and lol those mobile crematoriums are being called mobile bread ovens now?

[Gabriel]

Mmmmm corpse-meat-pies made with stolen grain. Damn it feels good not to be a russian soldier.

[Shalcker]

how long did it take to push the orcs out of the kyiv area?

It took negotiations that Ukrainians are refusing to consider right now.

[jonnysensible]

It took negotiations that Ukrainians are refusing to consider right now.

ah yes just like the VDV negotiated their way out of hostomel loooool

the only negotations russians are doing that tried to go the kyiv are with st peter at the pearly gates

[zealo]

It took negotiations that Ukrainians are refusing to consider right now.

The Russian soldiers near Kyiv were being "negotiated" away from their positions with Ukrainian shells and bullets.

Let's be real here, if Russia could've held onto their gains in the north threatening Kyiv, they absolutely would have.

[jonnysensible]

the moskova did a negotiated withdrawal

[Shalcker]

oh lol....... the whataboutism in this post is so strong.

So you admit your stealing the food from ukranians?

Ukrainians claim that; and there are videos of truck columns with "z" on them allegedly transporting it.

and lol those mobile crematoriums are being called mobile bread ovens now?

Here you can see them at work

[Gabriel]

Ukrainians claim that; and there are videos of truck columns with "z" on them allegedly transporting it.

Here you can see them at work

Wow. Just wow.

[Shalcker]

ah yes just like the VDV negotiated their way out of hostomel loooool

the only negotations russians are doing that tried to go the kyiv are with st peter at the pearly gates

How are your energy bills going?

Given that EU plans to invoke their energy security measures gas and oil deliveries to UK from Norway are at risk.

[jonnysensible]

How are your energy bills going?

Given that EU plans to invoke their energy security measures gas and oil deliveries to UK from Norway are at risk.

rather live with higher energy bills than in a fascist state

just voted in free elections 20 mins ago

[Shalcker]

rather live with higher energy bills than in a fascist state

You can get both though.

[jonnysensible]

You can get both though.

???? I'm not moving to russia

[MCMLXXXII]

Any bets how long Shillcker will last this time?
I say 27 hours after this mornings first post

[Shalcker]

???? I'm not moving to russia

Higher prices in UK aren't going to hurt Putin; if anything they help him.

---

On another note Russia still hasn't defaulted on debt - even US-denominated:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rocesses-funds

I guess this particular "threat" isn't going to play anytime soon.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Even if there are Western-made parts somewhere down the line, they will not impact Russian food production for years to come. Tractors are built to last decades and Russian hardware is generally capable of lasting that long, given proper maintenance.

If there's one a sector that could have a substantial impact on agriculture, it would be the seed imports of all things, at least as far as yield are concerned.

Russia and China have been trying to reduce their dependency on these aspects, but I assume they are still far from 100% independent.

[Shalcker]

If there's one a sector that could have a substantial impact on agriculture, it would be the seed imports of all things, at least as far as yield are concerned.

Russia and China have been trying to reduce their dependency on these aspects, but I assume they are still far from 100% independent.

There are clear problems with seed dependency. We'll see how critical is that going to be - but as far as i'm aware those areas aren't currently sanctioned.

But yields elsewhere will be impacted by fertilizer shortages too.

[Gorsameth]

Declaration of War or any sort of upgrade from "special operation" status would allow Russia to cut the crap internally and proceed with wartime measures.

Meaning refitting/forcing industries to work for the war effort and supply, as well as call in reservists and bringing out more equipment out of stores.

It's not going to change much short term, but it might manifest itself in a more meaningful way in a matter of few months.

Equipment that is likely to be in an even worse state then the stuff they are already using? It will all break down inside a week.

Russia's problem is much more fundamental and deep rooted then just needing more grunts or (old) equipment.