Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

Zelensky would be insane to expect Russia to abide by this either in wording or in spirit.

All Russia would do is withdraw, regroup, and keep funding separatists to break them up from the inside and take them out that way. These are also people who have killed people on foreign sovereign soil before across the globe, don't think for a moment they wouldn't continue it there.

Zelensky would probably end up dead within the next 2 years from some "Random Accident", poisoning, botched home invasion, car accident or something similar.

I have NO doubt that Zelenskyy is FULLY aware of all this, that's why he wants security guarantees from others, and the sanctions would mean that rebuilding will be hard, right now I've read anywhere from 5 years to two decades before they would be at pre invasion levels, with a minimum of 5 years *just* for manpower, so that's not the equipment which would take significantly longer.

[zealo]

It might come as a shock to you. But was in Myanmar, Syria, Yemen and Ethiopia, does not worsen the food crisis in African countries as much.

While Europe is not the center of the world. The world wide impact of Russia invading a country that supplies a great deal of food to low and middle income African and Asian countries is profound.

There's more to it than "jeez now the west thinks it's aaaalll about them again"

And it's also in Europe's best interest to help them out with that as much as it feasibly can for that matter.

[Fugus]

I have NO doubt that Zelenskyy is FULLY aware of all this, that's why he wants security guarantees from others, and the sanctions would mean that rebuilding will be hard, right now I've read anywhere from 5 years to two decades before they would be at pre invasion levels, with a minimum of 5 years *just* for manpower, so that's not the equipment which would take significantly longer.

True, but we know they wouldn’t go just that route, you would have Russia funding extremist within Ukraine the entire time and stoking every bit of division they can.

Just look at all the damage they have done around the globe without firing a single shot just in Brexit and with Trump, the GOP and the Supreme Court in the US.

Russia can’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag from the looks of it but they have mastered emboldening racists bigots, xenophobics and other asses into tearing up their own countries for them which is much less direct for them and much cheaper with a proven track record of little to no fighting back.

[Gaidax]

Yeah, but this represents the bare minimum, the rest can be sussed out in the deal itself. Ukraine has asked China to be a guarantor as well as several EU countries. I'd expect russia to demand, at the least, Donetsk and Luhansk in this scenario and regardless of what Ukraine wants the status of those two needs to be clear otherwise they'll just be a pawn in a couple of years again.

Note: I'm not saying Ukraine should give up on them, just that, as the article shows, it is unclear if Zelensky included them in his statement.

It is really simple and as I mentioned before like umpteenth times.

1) Crimea goes to Russia.
2) "Republics" stay up in the air like before the war.
3) Some sort of reparations for sanctions relief scheme.

That would probably be best case scenario for Ukraine in the next several years, because it would mean Russia would clear off Mariupol and Kherson areas.

Ukraine then can bide its time and maybe get either back if political situation in Russia changes the right way. Though I doubt Russia will give up Crimea even if Putin is not a thing anymore, unless some super pro-Western coup happens.

I am sure Ukrainian negotiators gun for the above outcome, because realistically it would be a win - it would mean Russia started a war and did not manage to get shit and left worse off than before. Ukraine can sell it at home with "temporarily occupied" remarks and such.

[Yunru]

Moskva was not part of special operation:


Yeah right.......

[Kallisto]

And it's also in Europe's best interest to help them out with that as much as it feasibly can for that matter.

Which is the only true reason why most of Europe (looking at you Hungary, Serbia) and other western nations are helping Ukraine. National interest. While it's the moral choice by far, it's not even close to the reason the west is acting. If Morals were a thing in foreign policy half the world would have been told "Stop" through military actions for doing the same or similar stuff Russia is doing in Ukraine.

[KrayZ33]

Seems like the 5(?) Panzerhaubitzen 2000 from the Netherlands will be matched with 7 from Germany. Ukraine will get 12 alongside munitions.

Training usually takes 40 days and will begin next week.

And it was news to me that Germany deployed 6 Panzerhaubitzen 2000 in Lithuania to reinforce the Germany Nato Battlegroup over there. Must have missed it for some reason.

[Breccia]

Yeah right.......

I didn't watch the video (sorry) but the term "threatened" seems excessive at first. But, I am happy to hear about any blowback from Putin's flat-out lying about the war, or his military in general, by claiming that everything is going perfectly but Russian "soldiers" are just doing something top-secret and unrelated to the fact that their letters home come without paychecks and are written in different handwriting. Or, have stopped entirely.

I know y'all keep calling me out for this, but while the Russian people might be crushed under state-run lying propaganda, even that has its limits when compared to the human soul, which at some point will wonder where their father, husband, or son is. Hell, even the ones that deserted might have trouble writing home, so between the injured, dead, and missing, the number of Russians who suddenly have a hole in their lives a male human once filled is increasing, therefore, so are the number of Russians who firsthand know such a person.

The next question, is what will that do? This is hyperbole to make a point, but let's say that 50 million Russians all decide enough's enough. That's a revolution, and Putin is eventually found and executed. At what point will the number of people who have had someone important to them vanish without a trace, covered only by an obvious lie from Putin, be enough to cause real change? I mean, we get a mass strike of the working class in oil and steel and Russia collapses in seconds. And that's Communism right there.

[Kallisto]

I mean, we get a mass strike of the working class in oil and steel and Russia collapses in seconds. And that's Communism right there.

We did it, we found Putin's true 5d Chess plan to bring back the Soviet State!

[Fuiking]

Seems like the 5(?) Panzerhaubitzen 2000 from the Netherlands will be matched with 7 from Germany. Ukraine will get 12 alongside munitions.

Training usually takes 40 days and will begin next week.

And it was news to me that Germany deployed 6 Panzerhaubitzen 2000 in Lithuania to reinforce the Germany Nato Battlegroup over there. Must have missed it for some reason.

The dutch even have 5 of those things? Thats new, thought they had nothing left.

[KrayZ33]

Man... on youtube there is this channel called "Österreichs Bundesherr" (Austria's army).

It's so interesting to hear briefings about the conflict from actual military personal, explaining to you why the russian military fails/failed to encircle the defenders and other stuff.
You can see how the fortifications work, where they are roughly located at. How the russians try to overwhelm these and what exactly they use and the problems they encounter... as well as how the Ukraine planned their defense.

It kinda shows in extreme detail why the Gepard tanks will be very important as well.
Basically, they explain how the weapons will be used and what they are up against.
They explain how the russians target the supply lines and where and how they hit them and stuff like that.

Really competent and informative stuff especially due to the way they present it with maps, pictures and the portrayel of battle lines/battleplans etc..



This is kinda..... fun... to watch (even if I don't want to use that word)

It's in german, sadly.
But the pictures and videos might be interesting for some anyway. Like this older video for example that explains how an ambush was made and how the russian tank convoy tried to defend against it. Then shortly after he explains how 2 MBT from the Ukraine tried to delay the convoy further (like 2 tanks vs a whole convoy).
The whole convoy stacked up (due to the commander dying) and artillery was used afterwards to further damage the convoy.

Pretty sure most people have posted small videos about this whole thing. But this has it all basically. Radio, better pictures, videos... basically the whole thing and how everything is and was connected.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNeXbNY3HYQ

[Crispin]

I didn't watch the video (sorry) but the term "threatened" seems excessive at first. But, I am happy to hear about any blowback from Putin's flat-out lying about the war, or his military in general, by claiming that everything is going perfectly but Russian "soldiers" are just doing something top-secret and unrelated to the fact that their letters home come without paychecks and are written in different handwriting. Or, have stopped entirely.

Well there is a threat in there. Not a physical threat, but one of delivering information to european newspapers.

[Twdft]

The next question, is what will that do? This is hyperbole to make a point, but let's say that 50 million Russians all decide enough's enough. That's a revolution,

This is not hyperbole, it literally happened before. Enough people in East Germany had enough and started taking to the streets to protest, even though a lot were detained by the secret police. Also other operations, like proving governmental election fraud. Elections were usually "won" by 99% of a 98% voter turnout. In one district citizens watched all polling stations, counting people going in to vote while urging voters before not to vote at all. Official turnout numbers later were of course way higher than number of people counted going in to vote. After months and months of bigger protests East Germanys government finally gave up. This happened all over the eastern bloc. It can happen again in ruSSia, just a question of how many Russians actually start asking themselves

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

It might come as a shock to you. But was in Myanmar, Syria, Yemen and Ethiopia, does not worsen the food crisis in African countries as much.

While Europe is not the center of the world. The world wide impact of Russia invading a country that supplies a great deal of food to low and middle income African and Asian countries is profound.

There's more to it than "jeez now the west thinks it's aaaalll about them again"

The justifications of the war, the good one, the bad one, is essentially of minor concern to them, like it is for the many other wars going around.

When it comes to disruption, obviously the best outcome is no war, the second best being a short one, and the worst outcome if of course a prolonged one, especially given their vulnerability.

As partially mentioned in Lula's interview, the picture painted in the media is some actors sending billions worth of weapons to one side, inevitably prolonging the conflict, while planning to out-bid unconcerned countries on vital resources and/or restricting their trade, and constantly moralizing them after first sending desperate loving calls to MBS and Maduro.

[Iphie]

The dutch even have 5 of those things? Thats new, thought they had nothing left.

We have 57 of those, 24 in active service atm, and 5 are going to Ukraine. (per wikipedia)

[Kaleredar]

The justifications of the war, the good one, the bad one, is essentially of minor concern to them, like it is for the many other wars going around.

When it comes to disruption, obviously the best outcome is no war, the second best being a short one, and the worst outcome if of course a prolonged one, especially given their vulnerability.

As partially mentioned in Lula's interview, the picture painted in the media is some actors sending billions worth of weapons to one side, inevitably prolonging the conflict, while planning to out-bid unconcerned countries on vital resources and/or restricting their trade, and constantly moralizing them after first sending desperate loving calls to MBS and Maduro.

The conflict is being “extended” by giving Ukraine arms in that it allows Ukraine to strengthen their position against Russias aggression. Russia could end the war at any time by simply leaving; it is entirely upon them to end the war, not Ukraine.

Ukraine has decided that fighting for their freedom to have self-determination is superior to a peaceful state of subjugation to Russia.

[Mamut]

Russia has redefined Nazism after Lavrov's outburst. It no longer is anti-semetic - its anti-slavic and anti-russian.

I don't know whats actually worse. This Russian propaganda crap on national TV or the people in Russia who belive it (and alot of them do).

[Forogil]

The justifications of the war, the good one, the bad one, is essentially of minor concern to them, like it is for the many other wars going around.

When it comes to disruption, obviously the best outcome is no war, the second best being a short one, and the worst outcome if of course a prolonged one, especially given their vulnerability.

As partially mentioned in Lula's interview, the picture painted in the media is some actors sending billions worth of weapons to one side, inevitably prolonging the conflict, while planning to out-bid unconcerned countries on vital resources and/or restricting their trade, and constantly moralizing them after first sending desperate loving calls to MBS and Maduro.

You are missing two obvious facts.

We can obviously not stop this war from starting, but we might avoid the next one or delay it.
That is a good goal - even by your standards, and that's why stopping Russia now is the goal - both for Ukraine (since Russia might get back for more, as they have done before) - and for other countries (since they might be next after Ukraine).

Clearly there is suffering during wars, and that's why they should be avoided.

However, war is not unique in being bad - and thus if the choice is to live under the yoke of a kleptocratic genocidal Russian dictatorship then a war and chance of not doing that might be better option. If the choice is to die when you surrender to them, as happened for too many, then war is clearly a better option - despite being bad.

Obviously, MBS and Maduro are also bloody dictators; and helping them isn't ideal. However, they are not as obviously war-mongering (despite the conflict in Yemen).

[Kallisto]

Obviously, MBS and Maduro are also bloody dictators; and helping them isn't ideal. However, they are not as obviously war-mongering (despite the conflict in Yemen).

I wouldn't say MBS isn't as obviously warmongering.

Attack a neighbouring nation? Check
Attack civilians deliberately? Check
Round up military-age men and just execute them? Check
Attack hospitals? Check
Attack again to make sure they hit emergency services? Check
Use of Rape and Starvation as weapons? Check

The literal only difference between Saudis in Yemen and Russia in Ukraine is the location. One is in the Middle east and the other is in Europe.

[Mihalik]

I wouldn't say MBS isn't as obviously warmongering.

Attack a neighbouring nation? Check
Attack civilians deliberately? Check
Round up military-age men and just execute them? Check
Attack hospitals? Check
Attack again to make sure they hit emergency services? Check
Use of Rape and Starvation as weapons? Check

The literal only difference between Saudis in Yemen and Russia in Ukraine is the location. One is in the Middle east and the other is in Europe.

Sending ax murderers after dissidents? Check.

There's one other key difference between the Saudis and the Russians tho. The Saudis can't nuke the planet. Nor are they threatening to every Tuesday.