Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Azadina]

A shame they couldn't be captured and properly brought to justice... especially if they were instructed to perpetrate these acts.

I mean, we know they likely were, but... getting that actually on paper would be nice. It might drive other countries "sitting on the fence" trying to be neutral to take a more solid stance against Russia.

But the important thing is that their little reign of depravity has been ended.

I wouldn't want to chance them being released in prisoner exchange, for which Russia has kidnapped loads of people for. Or them flat out released due to lack of evidence, or after short sentence. Nah, none of that. Fuckers needed to pay for their crimes, and this way they didn't get to dodge that with any technicality.

[Makabreska]

A shame they couldn't be captured and properly brought to justice... especially if they were instructed to perpetrate these acts.

I mean, we know they likely were, but... getting that actually on paper would be nice. It might drive other countries "sitting on the fence" trying to be neutral to take a more solid stance against Russia.

But the important thing is that their little reign of depravity has been ended.

If some countries are still sitting on the fence after Buchan and mass graves discovery, no captives confessions will change their mind.

[Kaleredar]

I wouldn't want to chance them being released in prisoner exchange, for which Russia has kidnapped loads of people for. Or them flat out released due to lack of evidence, or after short sentence. Nah, none of that. Fuckers needed to pay for their crimes, and this way they didn't get to dodge that with any technicality.

I mean... I really do doubt Ukraine would just up and release them, let alone have any sort of trial beyond a formality to basically just spell out what they had done.

But again, it doesn't matter. I'm glad Ukraine is able to deal with these butchers... in one way, or another.

[Corvus]

Russia must be thinking Snake Island is cursed - Bayraktars took out a helicopter landing there to drop supplies/troops and also what looks like a couple more patrol boats as well.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/s...08732750262273

https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons...A-6VoekTG-tvvg

[Dontrike]

Russia must be thinking Snake Island is cursed - Bayraktars took out a helicopter landing there to drop supplies/troops and also what looks like a couple more patrol boats as well.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/s...08732750262273

Saw Snake Island itself get hit by Ukrainians, they definitely got a few things, lots of secondary explosions wen toff afterwards.

[Corvus]

Saw Snake Island itself get hit by Ukrainians, they definitely got a few things, lots of secondary explosions wen toff afterwards.

That'd be the air strikes by jets earlier on. With the Moskva now a submarine and Bayraktars taking out the sams on snake island it's been free reign there for the Ukrainians.

- - - Updated - - -

The fires in Krasnoyarsk have burned down buildings where they produce the liquid propellant for their submarine launched ballistic missiles. Oops.

[DarkAmbient]

Another day, another school bombed by the Russians. 60 sheltering inside feared dead, 30 rescued https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/stat...03255291244545

[Iphie]

The fires in Krasnoyarsk have burned down buildings where they produce the liquid propellant for their submarine launched ballistic missiles. Oops.

That's that area where there had been fires since 2016? Also the comments sow some doubt to the date, there has been a fire there in 2019, but there seems to be no mention of one currently.

[Forogil]

Seems that there were lots of visits to Ukraine today; while Ukraine seem to be pushing back Russia even in parts of eastern Ukraine.

Both Trudeau and Bass, the speaker of the German Bundestag, met President Zelensky in the Kyiv-area.
Whereas Jill Biden met Ms. Zelenska in Uzhhorod in western-most Ukraine https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61369229

And Bono and Edge played in the Kyiv-metro, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3scSJ6LxRHo

[PACOX]

I hate the way this war is publicized.

"X person made a surprise visit to Kyiv . So brave"


No its not. There's no such thing as a "surprise visit" to a warzone by foreign VIPs. They could have all the good intentions in the world but it comes off as farming clout with such sensationalized headlines.

[Breccia]

Both Trudeau and Bass, the speaker of the German Bundestag, met President Zelensky in the Kyiv-area.

We're seeing reports that embassies could re-open in the forseeable future. That's big if true.

This CNN article sets the mood for tomorrow with the headline "Putin has put himself at the center of Russia's Victory Day. But he has little to celebrate".

It starts off with a bunch of stuff we know, like "Russia has lost thousands of troops, vehicles, months, billions, and their flagship". But then this comes up:

Russia is pushing ahead with force. It's in the midst of a prolonged battle in the southeastern port city of Mariupol, where its forces are intensely shelling a huge steel plant that it has failed to seize. If the plant falls, the city is more or less in their hands.

Intelligence reports show that Russia could be planning to annex Luhansk and Donetsk "sometime in mid-May" and could also declare and annex a so-called "people's republic" in the southeastern city of Kherson, according to US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Michael Carpenter, who spoke to reporters on Monday.

Any advancements are amplified in Russian media, where the messaging of success is very clear, Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the political analysis firm R. Politik, told CNN.

"The message is that Russia is moving according to plan and everything is going as it should, that there are some gains. Russia has declared that it took Mariupol, and so everything is going according to the plan," she said.

That messaging is filtering through to the Russian people effectively, according to Levada Center polls, which show that not only do the vast majority of Russians support the war, but 68% of Russians think the operation is proceeding successfully. Putin's popularity has also soared to 82%, after remaining stubbornly in the 60s since the Covid-19 pandemic hit right up until February, the month of Russia's invasion. Polling in Russia must be taken with a grain of salt, however, given people are subject to a stream of propaganda and dissent is not tolerated.

Stanovaya added that there was an additional narrative in state media that Russia is the victim in this war and that the country is acting defensively.

"When you're watching Russian TV for several days, you can really start believing that we are in a huge danger of Ukrainian Nazis. That we are vulnerable, that we should, we must get up and protect ourselves, otherwise it's a matter of Russian existence," she said.

So Putin will go up to the podium and spew nothing but misinformation, propaganda, and lies, refusing to answer even basic questions about objective facts and instead declare Mission Accomplished over the Nazis. Nothing but obvious lies without effort -- what a complete slacker.

The concern is the bolded. Some mix of that 68% of Russians just believe whatever Putin tells them because (a) they choose to despite all evidence, (b) they choose to despite all evidence being cloaked by Putin, or (c) they'll be shot if they don't. I expect Putin's parade will be met with thunderous applause, probably at gunpoint, when he tells the people who vote for him or die that everything is going well and getting better and rotten turnips build character.

With Putin desperate to play the victim in a war he started over nothing, the concern that he openly declare war remains there, but comes with a caveat. Right now, other countries are reacting with fervor to cut off Russian assets over a "special operation" in which Putin is watching half his troops flee and half the rest carried home on makeshift stretchers made from what's left of their tanks. If Putin wants to 100% mobilize, the actions and sanctions will not only intensify, but there will be more "that could be anyone's building on fire" as unfriendly countries get creative.

[Corvus]

Weather for the parade is meant to be cold and wet.

The copium brigade has been trying to claim that the Ukrainians released footage of their own helicopter being destroyed on snake island and tried to pass it off as Russian, despite it being identified as a model that Ukraine doesn't have and there being no need for the Ukrainians to be landing there. Problem for them is that telegram channels for the Wagner nazi group have been much more willing to admit what is going on. It was a Russian helicopter carrying a spetnaz team and none of them survived. They've also been loosing a lot of other stuff there as well.

[Cthulhu 2020]

We're seeing reports that embassies could re-open in the forseeable future. That's big if true.

This CNN article sets the mood for tomorrow with the headline "Putin has put himself at the center of Russia's Victory Day. But he has little to celebrate".

It starts off with a bunch of stuff we know, like "Russia has lost thousands of troops, vehicles, months, billions, and their flagship". But then this comes up:



So Putin will go up to the podium and spew nothing but misinformation, propaganda, and lies, refusing to answer even basic questions about objective facts and instead declare Mission Accomplished over the Nazis. Nothing but obvious lies without effort -- what a complete slacker.

The concern is the bolded. Some mix of that 68% of Russians just believe whatever Putin tells them because (a) they choose to despite all evidence, (b) they choose to despite all evidence being cloaked by Putin, or (c) they'll be shot if they don't. I expect Putin's parade will be met with thunderous applause, probably at gunpoint, when he tells the people who vote for him or die that everything is going well and getting better and rotten turnips build character.

With Putin desperate to play the victim in a war he started over nothing, the concern that he openly declare war remains there, but comes with a caveat. Right now, other countries are reacting with fervor to cut off Russian assets over a "special operation" in which Putin is watching half his troops flee and half the rest carried home on makeshift stretchers made from what's left of their tanks. If Putin wants to 100% mobilize, the actions and sanctions will not only intensify, but there will be more "that could be anyone's building on fire" as unfriendly countries get creative.

Wonder how many people in that 68% approval rating just voted yes because they've been trained like good Pavlovian dogs to support everything great leader dogs, how many voted yes because they're afraid of being carried off in a black unmarked van and later reappearing later as a body with a bad case of food poisoning.

[Breccia]

Wonder how many people in that 68% approval rating just voted yes because they've been trained like good Pavlovian dogs

Indeed, it's a topic that's been mentioned here more than once. My favorite response is "people who want to say no, but not get shot, don't answer the phone".

[Iphie]

We're seeing reports that embassies could re-open in the forseeable future. That's big if true.

This CNN article sets the mood for tomorrow with the headline "Putin has put himself at the center of Russia's Victory Day. But he has little to celebrate".

It starts off with a bunch of stuff we know, like "Russia has lost thousands of troops, vehicles, months, billions, and their flagship". But then this comes up:



So Putin will go up to the podium and spew nothing but misinformation, propaganda, and lies, refusing to answer even basic questions about objective facts and instead declare Mission Accomplished over the Nazis. Nothing but obvious lies without effort -- what a complete slacker.

The concern is the bolded. Some mix of that 68% of Russians just believe whatever Putin tells them because (a) they choose to despite all evidence, (b) they choose to despite all evidence being cloaked by Putin, or (c) they'll be shot if they don't. I expect Putin's parade will be met with thunderous applause, probably at gunpoint, when he tells the people who vote for him or die that everything is going well and getting better and rotten turnips build character.

With Putin desperate to play the victim in a war he started over nothing, the concern that he openly declare war remains there, but comes with a caveat. Right now, other countries are reacting with fervor to cut off Russian assets over a "special operation" in which Putin is watching half his troops flee and half the rest carried home on makeshift stretchers made from what's left of their tanks. If Putin wants to 100% mobilize, the actions and sanctions will not only intensify, but there will be more "that could be anyone's building on fire" as unfriendly countries get creative.

68% is down from the claimed 83-87% just after the start of the invasion. Now I have no doubt both numbers are manufactured but if there's even a small chance there's some truth in them then the approval rate has gone down.

As for the parade and speech, I'd much rather see him lie, declare mission accomplished than go to all out war. It is interesting to note that there was the military expert on the state television who noted that mobilisation wouldn't accomplish anything, and he wasn't shouted down by the hosts. (video can be found in this thread somewhere posted by @Corvus.) Meanwhile the Wagner group says they'll need 600-800k troops to win the war, that would be a lot of dead men and, frankly, a demographic disaster, more so than is already happening.

[Corvus]

There has been far too much enthusiasm from the populace for me to doubt those figures. Just watch them turn out in droves like obedient little lapdogs for the parade. If they weren't in favour they wouldn't go.

On the matter of the parade, what are people thinking is going to happen? Personally I'd like to see a highly embarrassing breakdown during it. I'm leaning towards Putin having to double down. He can't claim mission accomplished as they haven't taken any of their stated goals. He can't be seen to loose either. So I'm going with him announcing they are fighting in a great crusade against the nazi world and going with some form of mobilisation.

[Kallisto]

68% is down from the claimed 83-87% just after the start of the invasion. Now I have no doubt both numbers are manufactured but if there's even a small chance there's some truth in them then the approval rate has gone down.

As for the parade and speech, I'd much rather see him lie, declare mission accomplished than go to all out war. It is interesting to note that there was the military expert on the state television who noted that mobilisation wouldn't accomplish anything, and he wasn't shouted down by the hosts. (video can be found in this thread somewhere posted by @Corvus.) Meanwhile the Wagner group says they'll need 600-800k troops to win the war, that would be a lot of dead men and, frankly, a demographic disaster, more so than is already happening.

Also, a mobilization would take months to even properly get off the ground. Reservists in Russia aren't like reservists in the west where they have a long weekend of training every month or so. It will be the reservists first, in Russia they basically get no training after they're done as conscripts or contracted soldiers. So it will be 1-month paperwork at least then 3-4 months of basic before they even think of going to the front line. That's also if they have the equipment anyway, with all the sanctions that's pretty much unlikely too.

With Moral as low as it is the mobilization could spell disaster for Russia. If Putin is smart he'd declare victory in the special operation, tell his troops to just fortify, declare a ceasefire and hold out. He could even get away with the whole Victory speel because he basically controls all the media in the country. Who is going to say otherwise? I don't think he'd declare victory though.

As for the whole who supports what in Russia. The Russian youtube guy (whose name I forget) who escaped to Georgia pretty much stated that those who want to say no basically don't answer the phone or lie anyway. So it's very unlikely that it was ever in the 80% range and if it has gone down to "officially" 68% I bet it is much lower.

[Iphie]

There has been far too much enthusiasm from the populace for me to doubt those figures. Just watch them turn out in droves like obedient little lapdogs for the parade. If they weren't in favour they wouldn't go.

On the matter of the parade, what are people thinking is going to happen? Personally I'd like to see a highly embarrassing breakdown during it. I'm leaning towards Putin having to double down. He can't claim mission accomplished as they haven't taken any of their stated goals. He can't be seen to loose either. So I'm going with him announcing they are fighting in a great crusade against the nazi world and going with some form of mobilisation.

He can claim the land bridge, be 'merciful' and allow the fighters in Azovstal free passage, claim to have de-nazified Mariupol as a result and annex Luhansk and Donetsk. Those are within mission parameters, the Donbass has not yet been fully conquered but the separatist areas would be linked up to Crimea. You can argue it's a Pyrrhus victory, and it is, but it would be a face-saving way out.

I do not know what will happen today and I rather not speculate. However I have seen more people say they'd not mind something embarrassing to happen, a breakdown or something like that.

[Corvus]

He can claim the land bridge, be 'merciful' and allow the fighters in Azovstal free passage, claim to have de-nazified Mariupol as a result and annex Luhansk and Donetsk. Those are within mission parameters, the Donbass has not yet been fully conquered but the separatist areas would be linked up to Crimea. You can argue it's a Pyrrhus victory, and it is, but it would be a face-saving way out.

Except they are no where near to holding all of Luhansk and Donetsk, which was the stated causus beli right at the start. Be hard to claim victory when you haven't met your goals. And your troops won't be coming home either. They will either stay and keep getting destroyed or withdraw and loose everything.

[PhaelixWW]

Except they are no where near to holding all of Luhansk and Donetsk, which was the stated causus beli right at the start. Be hard to claim victory when you haven't met your goals. And your troops won't be coming home either. They will either stay and keep getting destroyed or withdraw and loose everything.

I think they meant LPR and DPR, which Russian troops (or Russian-backed separatists) do hold.