Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Kallisto]

68% is down from the claimed 83-87% just after the start of the invasion. Now I have no doubt both numbers are manufactured but if there's even a small chance there's some truth in them then the approval rate has gone down.

As for the parade and speech, I'd much rather see him lie, declare mission accomplished than go to all out war. It is interesting to note that there was the military expert on the state television who noted that mobilisation wouldn't accomplish anything, and he wasn't shouted down by the hosts. (video can be found in this thread somewhere posted by @Corvus.) Meanwhile the Wagner group says they'll need 600-800k troops to win the war, that would be a lot of dead men and, frankly, a demographic disaster, more so than is already happening.

Also, a mobilization would take months to even properly get off the ground. Reservists in Russia aren't like reservists in the west where they have a long weekend of training every month or so. It will be the reservists first, in Russia they basically get no training after they're done as conscripts or contracted soldiers. So it will be 1-month paperwork at least then 3-4 months of basic before they even think of going to the front line. That's also if they have the equipment anyway, with all the sanctions that's pretty much unlikely too.

With Moral as low as it is the mobilization could spell disaster for Russia. If Putin is smart he'd declare victory in the special operation, tell his troops to just fortify, declare a ceasefire and hold out. He could even get away with the whole Victory speel because he basically controls all the media in the country. Who is going to say otherwise? I don't think he'd declare victory though.

As for the whole who supports what in Russia. The Russian youtube guy (whose name I forget) who escaped to Georgia pretty much stated that those who want to say no basically don't answer the phone or lie anyway. So it's very unlikely that it was ever in the 80% range and if it has gone down to "officially" 68% I bet it is much lower.

[Iphie]

There has been far too much enthusiasm from the populace for me to doubt those figures. Just watch them turn out in droves like obedient little lapdogs for the parade. If they weren't in favour they wouldn't go.

On the matter of the parade, what are people thinking is going to happen? Personally I'd like to see a highly embarrassing breakdown during it. I'm leaning towards Putin having to double down. He can't claim mission accomplished as they haven't taken any of their stated goals. He can't be seen to loose either. So I'm going with him announcing they are fighting in a great crusade against the nazi world and going with some form of mobilisation.

He can claim the land bridge, be 'merciful' and allow the fighters in Azovstal free passage, claim to have de-nazified Mariupol as a result and annex Luhansk and Donetsk. Those are within mission parameters, the Donbass has not yet been fully conquered but the separatist areas would be linked up to Crimea. You can argue it's a Pyrrhus victory, and it is, but it would be a face-saving way out.

I do not know what will happen today and I rather not speculate. However I have seen more people say they'd not mind something embarrassing to happen, a breakdown or something like that.

[Corvus]

He can claim the land bridge, be 'merciful' and allow the fighters in Azovstal free passage, claim to have de-nazified Mariupol as a result and annex Luhansk and Donetsk. Those are within mission parameters, the Donbass has not yet been fully conquered but the separatist areas would be linked up to Crimea. You can argue it's a Pyrrhus victory, and it is, but it would be a face-saving way out.

Except they are no where near to holding all of Luhansk and Donetsk, which was the stated causus beli right at the start. Be hard to claim victory when you haven't met your goals. And your troops won't be coming home either. They will either stay and keep getting destroyed or withdraw and loose everything.

[PhaelixWW]

Except they are no where near to holding all of Luhansk and Donetsk, which was the stated causus beli right at the start. Be hard to claim victory when you haven't met your goals. And your troops won't be coming home either. They will either stay and keep getting destroyed or withdraw and loose everything.

I think they meant LPR and DPR, which Russian troops (or Russian-backed separatists) do hold.

[Breccia]

So I'm going with him announcing they are fighting in a great crusade against the nazi world and going with some form of mobilisation.

This seems realistic. He could also go with "don't worry, things are still going great, by the way I need 500,000 volunteers, yes you in the front row at gunpoint, thank you".

[Corvus]

I think they meant LPR and DPR, which Russian troops (or Russian-backed separatists) do hold.

Ah, okay. Still doesn't stop the war unless Russia fully withdraws, and maybe not even then.

[Iphie]

Except they are no where near to holding all of Luhansk and Donetsk, which was the stated causus beli right at the start. Be hard to claim victory when you haven't met your goals. And your troops won't be coming home either. They will either stay and keep getting destroyed or withdraw and loose everything.

Like I said: Pyrrhus victory, Luhansk is 95% in russian hands though so that's not completely a lost cause (for them, as far I am concerned they should just go home.), Donetsk on the other hand is indeed about 55% controlled. As for how hard it is to claim victory, he can just declare victory, he controls the internal narrative. Besides, he can claim that, while unfortunately not the entire Donbass has been liberated the Kherson oblast has been secured and with it fresh water for the Crimea, and then he can go on how he has secured the Sea of Azov. I know it's hard to see how he can claim total victory but partial or even amended victory conditions are a possibility.

In the end I don't know what is more likely, he won't back down to the extent Zelenskyy would like, but he might not escalate either, we'll just have to see.

(side note, did the russians say they wanted to liberate the people's republics or the entire Donbass at the start? It makes a difference.)

[PhaelixWW]

(side note, did the russians say they wanted to liberate the people's republics or the entire Donbass at the start? It makes a difference.)

Neither.

They already considered LPR and DPR "liberated" by the separatists. In fact, they acknowledged them as separate countries just before they invaded. The expectation is that there will be a sham "referendum" in each before announcing that they had voted to be formally annexed by Russia.

I mean, Russia stated that they were looking to "liberate" Donbas only in the sense that they were looking to "liberate" the whole country. Much, much later, they talked about the land bridge to Crimea and Transnistria, but for that they would only need DPR, LPR, and the area around Mariupol out of the Donbas.

[MCMLXXXII]

And Bono and Edge played in the Kyiv-metro, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3scSJ6LxRHo

Damn those people really have it rough. First a illegal invasion by Russia, then a visit from one of the most self-righteous people in the world. Did I mention tax evading?

[PhaelixWW]

Newsweek: Fire Engulfs Aviation College in Russian Town Hit by Blast Days Earlier

A fire engulfed an aviation college on Sunday, just days after an ammunition plant caught fire in the Russian town of Perm amid the country's ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Russia has seen several mysterious fires break out in various buildings, warehouses and other places since April, raising concerns from some that Ukraine could be responsible, though leaders have not claimed responsibility.

Sunday's fire in Perm, a city of more than 1 million people, which is located more than 700 miles from Moscow near the Ural Mountains, appeared to break out at a construction site where the school was being built in the city center.

Also, file this one under suspicious-if-true:

The former top manager of Lukoil, billionaire Alexander Subbotin, died in Mytishchi. Previously, after an anti-hangover session with shamans.

Shaman Magua and his wife received clients in an ordinary private house. They offered the best: for example, treatment with a poisonous toad. They made an incision on the skin, dripped toad poison there - and after vomiting the patient allegedly got better. They also called spirits, sacrificed animals and bathed the lost in cock's blood.

Subbotin knew the Magua couple for a long time and regularly used their services. And then he came to them once again - to treat a hangover. Suddenly he felt unwell - his heart ached. The owner decided not to call an ambulance, applied the good old Corvalol and put the billionaire to sleep in the basement. There, among the occult tinsel, the Russian billionaire died. The shaman spouses told the police that they were just friends with the deceased. Whether Alexander got sick from poisonous toads or from something else is not clear, but the investigation will soon figure it out.

You'll remember that...

Big if true, Russian energy giant Lukoil has called for an immediate end to the war.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia...f-ukraine-war/

...and...

2 Russian oligarchs were found dead one day apart alongside their wives and children, reports say

https://www.businessinsider.com/2-ru...reports-2022-4

And apparently these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Supposed Russian oligarch "suicides" this year (per CNN and Fortune):

• January 30: Leonid Shulman, head of Gazprom Invest's transportation department
• February 25: Alexander Tyulakov, deputy director general of the gazprom center for corporate security
• February 28: Mikhael Watford, gas and oil magnate
• March 24: Vasily Melnikov, head of medical supply giant MedStom
• April 18: Vladislav Avayev, former deputy chairman of the natural gas company Novatek
• April 19: Sergei Protosenya, former Kremlin official and the former vice president of Gazprombank

[Iphie]

Death by toad poison administered by a shaman to cure a hangover...I'm almost willing to believe Putin had nothing to do with that, it's way too creative.

[PhaelixWW]

Death by toad poison administered by a shaman...I'm almost willing to believe Putin had nothing to do with that, it's way too creative.

And irradiated tea and poisoned underwear are... what? Too pedestrian?

<dwayne_johnson_eyebrow_raise.jpg>

Besides, the poisonous toad would just be the cover for a different poison, surely.

And that's if this is true; there's not a whole lot of reporting on it so far, so huge grain of salt.

[Iphie]

And irradiated tea and poisoned underwear are... what? Too pedestrian?

<dwayne_johnson_eyebrow_raise.jpg>

Besides, the poisonous toad would just be the cover for a different poison, surely.

And that's if this is true; there's not a whole lot of reporting on it so far, so huge grain of salt.

I mean, yeah ok. Toad poison is however notoriously difficult to administer properly without killing your subject, so I'd not be surprised if this was an legitimate accident.

[Rustedsaint]

Death by toad poison administered by a shaman to cure a hangover...I'm almost willing to believe Putin had nothing to do with that, it's way too creative.

Sure beats my walking for a half a hour then buying a subway sub hangover cure

[DarkAmbient]

No war declaration, no mobilisation announcement in the speech. Just the usual BS about national security.

[Iphie]

No war declaration, no mobilisation announcement in the speech. Just the usual BS about national security.

Well, he did offer small praise to the other Allies in the war, and he did say:

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has spoken at Russia's annual Victory Day parade in Moscow, saying "our duty is to do everything so that the horror of a global war does not happen again."

Now how much stock we can put into that is up for debate.

[Corvus]

He did also claim the West was preparing to invade Russia.

[Iphie]

He did also claim the West was preparing to invade Russia.

The bbc only *just* reported that so didn't see that before, it's obviously BS from our point of view but that's not who it is for.

[zorkuus]

He did also claim the West was preparing to invade Russia.

So nothing new. Just the same grotesque bs we've heard before.

[Corvus]

Gerasimov doesn't seem to have been at the parade

And it also looked very, very white. It's fine for all those ethnic minorities to go off and die but can't have them on the pure Russian nazi parade.