Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Finlandia WOAT]

That's all Ukraine can realistically get for next 2-3 years, until sanctions take effect and public "Z" fever in Russia subsides in face of mounting day-to-day troubles.

Ukraine is about to get a bunch of heavy artillery that outranges Russian artillery. They're three months away from the initial fielding of hundreds of thousands of 6 month fresh recruits, while Russia is scrapping the bottom of the proverbial barrel for manpower in lieu of some form of mobilization.

Time is on UAF's side, in the short term, especially so since it seems Putin didn't even engage a partial mobilization. If in 6 months UAF still hasn't engaged a successful offensive, then yeah I'd think you see something like the wet noodle of a cease fire you're proposing.

[Mihalik]

This war will not be decided by what Putin is or is not willing to do. The armies actually fighting in the field cannot keep this up and no amount of mobilization can change that because more bodies doesn't mean more material.

While it's likely that the Russians will eventually run out of things like cruise missiles and guided munitions, also things like drones, optics, radios, GPS' (stuff they just can't make domestically anyway and have always been buying from the West and some extent China) they still have plenty of plain old cannons, dumb missile launchers, shitty armor, ancient Soviet surplus like ancient AKs and Mosins.

The Yugoslav Wars went on for 10 fucking years with a virtually total arms embargo, just using domestically produced shit and existing stocks and very limited imports from the third world.

The Russians could keep this going for years. Dig in and just turn it into an artillery war, with fewer but constant strikes on infrastructure and population centers to prevent Ukraine from returning to normalcy. All the while constantly threatening the rest of the world with nuclear annihilation.

It would be stupid, wasteful, bloody and petty, but I'd argue that those 4 words describe the Russians pretty accurately.

Because I honestly don't see what the fuck is their endgame here.

It should be obvious as shit even in the most delusional circles of the Kremlin that 1, they are not fucking doing regime change 2, what they have now is pretty much what they'll be getting and if anything the longer this goes on the more they might end up losing.

All this in the context of the ongoing economic and political isolation of the country. Like what the fuck is the plan Vlad?

[PhaelixWW]

I don't see how you can say "they held it since 2014, surely they will hold it now" with a strait face.

Good thing I didn't, then?

But the reality is that they have held it. So they're the ones more familiar with the territory than the Ukrainian military at this point. They've got established supply routes there. Entrenched defenses.

And if/when the rest of the invasion falters, Russian forces will pull back from their current large front towards DPR and LPR, rather than risk being largely cut off from support. Let's not pretend that retaking DPR and LPR is going to be anywhere near the same as retaking small bits of the front. Remember that most of the territory Ukraine has retaken so far has been in areas from where Russia has just withdrawn rather than continue fighting.

I mean, sure, that's going to happen when Russian forces are sustaining heavy losses; they'll withdraw. But they're going to withdraw towards DPR and LPR, ultimately.

But more importantly than any of that, I never said "surely they will hold it now". I said it wasn't unreasonable for someone to think that they could continue to hold it. Just because it's not unreasonable to think that doesn't mean they won't be proven wrong in the end.

Personally, though, I'd estimate less than a 50% chance that Ukraine will get back DPR and LPR through fighting. Maybe up to 66% that they'll get it back through diplomacy after the fighting has ended.

[Breccia]

Russans are stealing guns from each other now.

Wow. Holy shit, that kind of issue in a unit gets people killed.

Also, Biden has removed Trump's tariff on Ukrainian steel.

[Gaidax]

And if/when the rest of the invasion falters, Russian forces will pull back from their current large front towards DPR and LPR, rather than risk being largely cut off from support. Let's not pretend that retaking DPR and LPR is going to be anywhere near the same as retaking small bits of the front. Remember that most of the territory Ukraine has retaken so far has been in areas from where Russia has just withdrawn rather than continue fighting.

I mean, sure, that's going to happen when Russian forces are sustaining heavy losses; they'll withdraw. But they're going to withdraw towards DPR and LPR, ultimately.

This is the main point that eludes people here. Ukraine simply can't take back DNR/LNR/Crimea by fighting, short of complete collapse and regime change in Russia. What will happen will be that both sides will fight down to stalemate and that's about it for the time being anyway.

Said collapse won't be happening this year, because the conditions are not there - it will be a process that will take years, the same it was with Soviet Union. Luckily for Ukraine - Russia is no Soviet Union, it won't hold out for a decade. It would still hold out for years.

That is why Zelensky wants Feb 24th state as a win condition, because for Ukraine it would be a fantastic option for the next few years while Russia deteriorates. This is something Ukraine may be able to approximately get with negotiations.

Then, eventually, more could be taken back.

[PhaelixWW]

This is the main point that eludes people here. Ukraine simply can't take back DNR/LNR/Crimea by fighting, short of complete collapse and regime change in Russia.

Well, see, now... I don't think that "[they] simply can't take [it] back" is any more correct than "surely they will hold it". I think that some kind of stalemate is by far the most likely outcome, but I don't think it's 100% on either side.

[Mihalik]

Then, eventually, more could be taken back.

The Russians aren't giving up Kherson. Nor are they giving up the land bridge to Crimea.

On the other hand they will likely pull back from around Kharkiv. They aren't taking that and I think they pretty much stopped trying.

A return to the Feb lines would mean they would have next to nothing to show at home for this whole thing.

Kherson and the land bridge are pretty much their only big wins in this entire fucking fiasco.

[Breccia]

Putin Delivers Defiant Speech, but Stops Short of Escalation

Well, I guess we know what V stands for in V-day.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Monday hailed his country’s army for “fighting for the Motherland,” delivering a defiant speech at the annual Victory Day commemorations in Moscow that falsely depicted his invasion of Ukraine as an extension of the struggle against Nazism in Europe.

But despite the rhetorical bombast and military pageantry of the day, which celebrates the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany, Mr. Putin’s speech was--

Vagina. It stands for vagina. Putin is a giant pussy.

Mr. Putin’s speech was conspicuous for what it left out: There was no claim of victory; no call for a new mobilization of Russians for a wider conflict; no threat of a nuclear strike; and no stark pronouncement about Russia being locked in an existential war with the West.

The address was carefully calibrated and appeared aimed at a domestic audience, as Mr. Putin sought to channel Russian pride in defeating Nazi Germany into support for his invasion of Ukraine. But while some Western officials had predicted Mr. Putin would seize on the holiday to double down on the war, instead his words appeared to underline his cautiousness about demanding too much from regular Russians in a country buffeted by internal divisions.

He insisted again that Russia had been forced into the war and made a rare acknowledgment of the toll of the fighting, promising that his government would do “everything to care for” the families of dead soldiers.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine rebutted Mr. Putin’s reading of history, saying in a speech released on Monday that the Russian leader’s war was “repeating the horrific crimes of Hitler’s regime today.” He said only “a madman” would follow the path of the fascists who started World War II.

Um...that bolded...he does realize he started this, right? The madman, in this scenario, is Putin. By Putin's admission. Does he have brain cancer, too?

I do appreciate that Putin says he's doing everything he can for the families of the dead soldiers. Oh, wait, not "appreciate" what's the word...oh, right, disbelieve. I think he's lying. Russia is listen dead soldiers as "missing" so they don't have to pay anyone. As a reminder, Russia promised 5 million rubles to the families of dead soldiers. Yeah, yeah, I know, that's about $16.50 US but it's worth something to Russians because Putin took away all their dollars and euros, and let's face it, you have to wipe your ass sometime. But that was back when Russia admitted only 500 dead. That number is now likely in the tens of thousands, or to quote a Russian soldier whose call was intercepted:

The official tally is one thing, but I’ll tell you now – 25,900 have died. That’s in two fucking months.

Ukraine's estimate is lower than that, by the way.

I'll be honest, I looked for an admitted Russian public source death count and did not find anything recent. Their last official tally was about 1400 but that was late March. It's early May. Ukraine is at least using a tracking app with facial recognition, and quite frankly, if Ukraine and Russia disagree I'm going to side with Ukraine literally every time. Also, western intel backs up Ukraine more than Russia every single time so there will be no handwaving the 25,000 killed when everyone agrees on it.

Anyhow: the gap between the 25,900 the Russian soldier said and the 1,351 that Russia has said, Putin owes hundreds of billions of rubles to his people. I will claim without evidence that has not been paid, and when I say "without evidence" I mean "I looked but could not find proof that these families have been paid". Since Putin's announcement March 3 there's been basically no follow-up.

[Iphie]

Um...that bolded...he does realize he started this, right? The madman, in this scenario, is Putin. By Putin's admission. Does he have brain cancer, too?

Who? Putin? It is alleged that this is one of the five cancers he has, yes. No confirmation of course. The others are, bowel, pancreas, thyroid and spinal column.

While I admit that I hadn't expected this I am somewhat relieved that there's no apparent escalation, for now.

[Finlandia WOAT]

26k dead (so not including injured/captured, which is usually at a minimum double KIA number) is bonkers. It's been 2 months and they've spent half of that not on a major offensive. Really we could include most of the war lest we ignore their very vocal announcement of the commencement of the Donbas offensive a month ago.

I'm shocked Putin didn't at least declare mobilization in the Ukrainian adjacent territories, those at least can mobilize without having thousands of young, armed soldiers in Moscow who are aware of the fact if the status quo does not change right fucking now they will be sent to die in Ukraine. Every day he delays this is another day Ukraine has to train up their reserves/fresh recruits, to integrate Western weapons, for the West to scale up peace time production into Lend/Lease production, etc. Time is not on Putin's side here.

[PhaelixWW]

I'm shocked Putin didn't at least declare mobilization in the Ukrainian adjacent territories, those at least can mobilize without having thousands of young, armed soldiers in Moscow who are aware of the fact if the status quo does not change right fucking now they will be sent to die in Ukraine. Every day he delays this is another day Ukraine has to train up their reserves/fresh recruits, to integrate Western weapons, for the West to scale up peace time production into Lend/Lease production, etc. Time is not on Putin's side here.

Just because he didn't want to do it to coincide with the May 9th celebrations doesn't mean it's not still imminent.

[DarkTZeratul]

Um...that bolded...he does realize he started this, right? The madman, in this scenario, is Putin. By Putin's admission. Does he have brain cancer, too?

I think that's what Zelensky said about Putin, if I'm reading the quote right.

[Fantomen]

I'm shocked Putin didn't at least declare mobilization in the Ukrainian adjacent territories.

To send unwilling conscript on mass to Ukraine is doomed to fail. Putin will get all the Russian mothers who have children in conscript age against him. He cant intimidate/controll them, becuse they "fight" for there childrens life.

[Poopymonster]

To send unwilling conscript on mass to Ukraine is doomed to fail. Putin will get all the Russian mothers who have children in conscript age against him. He cant intimidate/controll them, becuse they "fight" for there childrens life.

Vlad fears the Babushka Brigades.

[Rasulis]

Two Neptune Missiles Should Not Have Been Able to Sink The Moskva

Moskva, at 600 feet long, was not a small ship. She was also not defenseless, with radar, SA-N-4 low-altitude surface-to-air missiles, and radar-directed AK-630 30-millimeter Gatling guns that should have offered a considerable amount of protection. That the ship intentionally sailed within range of the shore-based Neptune missiles suggests the Russian Navy thought it could defend itself.

A warship the size of Moskva should have shot down both Neptune missiles—this actually happened in 2016, when the guided-missile destroyer USS Mason shot down two ASCMs launched by Yemeni Houthi rebels. Moskva should have required more than two Neptune-type missiles to sink; in 1987, an Iraqi Exocet anti-ship missile, similar to Neptune, hit the frigate USS Stark and was saved by its crew. At just 4,000 tons, Stark was a third of the size of Moskva. There are numerous examples such as these that suggest Moskva should still be afloat, or at least have made it to Sevastopol.

What went wrong? The Russians are not talking.

[Iphie]

Two Neptune Missiles Should Not Have Been Able to Sink The Moskva



What went wrong? The Russians are not talking.

Some things to note: The Moskva was built in Ukraine, they have the unfinished sister ship, it was refurbished in Ukraine as well so they knew her weaknesses. The Ukrainians allegedly distracted the ship until it was too late. If the ordnance on board went up and caused a chain reaction then that would have been bad™.

[Bakis]

Two Neptune Missiles Should Not Have Been Able to Sink The Moskva



What went wrong? The Russians are not talking.

Incompetence

[zealo]

Two Neptune Missiles Should Not Have Been Able to Sink The Moskva



What went wrong? The Russians are not talking.

In the end, whether the public knows the truth about how it happened doesn't matter nearly as much as that it did.

Russia is in no position to reinforce their black sea fleet with Turkey blocking the Bosphorus, much less replace major vessels ending up as wrecks in any relevant time frame.

[Corvus]

Biden has signed the new lend-lease act into being.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share

[Bakis]

Biden has signed the new lend-lease act into being.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share

Edi: original comment deleted, was drunk as fuck and mixed up lend-lease with the marshall plan somehow.