1. #19201
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    US intelligence believes that Putin is likely to impose martial law and fight for years in the belief the West will lose resolve. At current rates that means hundreds of thousands of dead Russians.

    They also believe he still isn't content with just the Donbas and still wants to push all the way to Moldova.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share
    That would be the most stupid thing ever. >.<

    They will never be able to do that. Ever.

  2. #19202
    Quote Originally Posted by Voidism View Post
    That would be the most stupid thing ever. >.<

    They will never be able to do that. Ever.
    It's sunk cost fallacy by now. Putin has spent so much in this, wrecked his army and economy in the process, for nothing, so he feels he has to keep pressing on.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The Russian appointed authorities in Kherson have asked to become part of Russia.

    Also the UK and Sweden have signed an agreement to come to each other assistance if either is attacked. Basically a guarantee until they join NATO, which looks a certainty now after this agreement.

  3. #19203
    The Lightbringer Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    It's sunk cost fallacy by now. Putin has spent so much in this, wrecked his army and economy in the process, for nothing, so he feels he has to keep pressing on.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The Russian appointed authorities in Kherson have asked to become part of Russia.

    Also the UK and Sweden have signed an agreement to come to each other assistance if either is attacked. Basically a guarantee until they join NATO, which looks a certainty now after this agreement.
    Funny how Peskov says this in response:

    In response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was for residents of Kherson to decide their own fate. He added that there needed to be a clear legal basis for such a move, claiming there had been one for the annexation of Crimea by Russian forces in 2014.
    You'd almost think he's like, eh, well not so hasty fellas.

    Bojo is coming to Finland as well so I assume a similar thing will happen here.

  4. #19204
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    I feel like protracted, asymmetrical wars generally favor the local forces, historically. Even when the invading forces have considerably training, technological, and numbers advantages, or at least supposedly have those advantages. The training and technology on the Russian front is not exactly impressive so far.
    Afghanistan.

  5. #19205
    The explanation we were given by the resident russian shill, when we were first shown photos of this around the time that russia shot down that airliner in ukraine, was that it's cheaper to do it this way, and why shouldn't russia use GPS signals? With absolutely zero awareness about everything that says about soviet strategy
    Quote Originally Posted by Rudol Von Stroheim View Post
    I do not need to play the role of "holier than thou". I'm above that..

  6. #19206
    Quote Originally Posted by Crispin View Post
    I hope that the Russians are dumb enough to keep this up for years. Altho they'll at some point be fighting on Russians ground if they do so.

    In the end, I hope it'll end with the Russian federation beeing dismantled. Preferebly with a western mindset in the wstern republics. China can absorb the Eastern ones.
    Russia isn't going to be dismantled greatly diminished but people underestimate how much it takes for a nation to collapse. I am also dumbfounded by people wanting a nuclear power going to shit, when the USSR collapsed we got really lucky. I also don't think it's dumb for them to keep going, what do they have to gain by not stopping? the EU is going to cut them off sooner or later, the sanctions are not going to be rolled back since the US is openly saying they want nothing short of total victory and regime change.

    What would be their motivation to reverse course?

  7. #19207
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    Russia isn't going to be dismantled greatly diminished but people underestimate how much it takes for a nation to collapse. I am also dumbfounded by people wanting a nuclear power going to shit, when the USSR collapsed we got really lucky. I also don't think it's dumb for them to keep going, what do they have to gain by not stopping? the EU is going to cut them off sooner or later, the sanctions are not going to be rolled back since the US is openly saying they want nothing short of total victory and regime change.

    What would be their motivation to reverse course?
    …that otherwise russia collapses into internal strife and conflict? And they only have themselves to blame for it? And no other country is going to come in and “save them from themselves?”

    Russia has seen two major regimes changes in just a hair over 100 years. It seems errant for people to assume that’s just something that can’t happen anymore.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  8. #19208
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    …that otherwise russia collapses into internal strife and conflict? And they only have themselves to blame for it? And no other country is going to come in and “save them from themselves?”

    Russia has seen two major regimes changes in just a hair over 100 years. It seems errant for people to assume that’s just something that can’t happen anymore.
    But stopping would not do anything to stop that would it if anything it would accelerate it. I never said it can't happen I am saying it's harder than people think and we should not wish for it since that's playing with fire. Unless Putin is given an out this will go on for years.

  9. #19209
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    But stopping would not do anything to stop that would it if anything it would accelerate it. I never said it can't happen I am saying it's harder than people think and we should not wish for it since that's playing with fire. Unless Putin is given an out this will go on for years.
    putin’s “out” is fucking on off out of Ukraine.

    Effectively coddling some immediate, very real evil in the vague fear of avoiding some unknown, hypothetical evil is also errant.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  10. #19210
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    putin’s “out” is fucking on off out of Ukraine.

    Effectively coddling some immediate, very real evil in the vague fear of avoiding some unknown, hypothetical evil is also errant.
    I am not sure why you are on your high horse about coddling evil, should I start listing the evils we coddle, fund and protect all over the world? This ought to be about the best thing for Ukraine and they should ultimately decide that, Zelinsky seems open to compromises to stop the fighting. Let's also be frank the US presidential election is around the corner and there's a non zero chance that Putin will have his ally back in the white house.
    Last edited by Draco-Onis; 2022-05-11 at 03:21 PM.

  11. #19211
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    I am not sure why you are on your high horse about coddling evil, should I start listing the evils we coddle, fund and protect all over the world? This ought to be about the best thing for Ukraine and they should ultimately decide that, Zelinsky seems open to compromises to stop the fighting. Let's also be frank the US presidential election is around the corner and there's a non zero chance that Putin will have his ally back in the white house.
    It's not exactly around the corner. There's 2 years and spare to go. If Putin's plan is to drag this out until Trump is back in the White House and assuming he would be back in the White House, that's an insane gamble. He lost about 20k men already (and about 3 times as many wounded) and we're not even 3 months into this. Even if the intensity of the active fighting diminishes to a point where their casualties drop to about a thousand or so a month, that would another 26 to 27 thousand dead before 2024.

    It's clear that Putin is the king of shit plans, but this would be the dumbest plan of them all.

    I honestly don't think Trump is a consideration for the Russians here.

    It's clear that the Russians have at this point have given up on Kharkiv, the long game here is probably taking as much land as possible in the south, and then negotiate based on that. Odessa is also something the Russians would really like to get their hands on, but the odds of getting that are realistically lower than taking Kharkiv at this point.

  12. #19212
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    I am not sure why you are on your high horse about coddling evil, should I start listing the evils we coddle, fund and protect all over the world? This ought to be about the best thing for Ukraine and they should ultimately decide that, Zelinsky seems open to compromises to stop the fighting. Let's also be frank the US presidential election is around the corner and there's a non zero chance that Putin will have his ally back in the white house.
    You're arguing pro-Trump here. A strong way to impede Trump is to ruin Russia as much as possible, which is exactly what Democrats are doing. But you want them to stop doing that.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    If Putin's plan is to drag this out until Trump is back in the White House and assuming he would be back in the White House, that's an insane gamble. He lost about 20k men already (and about 3 times as many wounded) and we're not even 3 months into this. Even if the intensity of the active fighting diminishes to a point where their casualties drop to about a thousand or so a month, that would another 26 to 27 thousand dead before 2024.
    To be fair, from a Russian PoV 20k or even 120k isn't that much. Putin's beloved USSR lost millions of troops during the WW2, so rest assured he's willing to lose a million for a victory over "the West".
    Quote Originally Posted by Nobleshield View Post
    It's not 2004. People have lives, jobs, families etc

  13. #19213
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    Ukraine starts to fuck with Russia's fuel lines.

    Happy V Day!

    Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine fell by a quarter on Wednesday after Kyiv halted use of a major transit route blaming interference by occupying Russian forces, the first time exports via Ukraine have been disrupted since the invasion.

    Ukraine has remained a major transit route for Russian gas to Europe even after Moscow launched what it calls a "special military operation" on Feb. 24.

    The transit point Ukraine shut usually handles about 8% of Russian gas flows to Europe, although European states said they were still receiving supplies. The Ukraine corridor mostly sends gas to Austria, Italy, Slovakia and other east European states.

    GTSOU, which operates Ukraine's gas system, said on Tuesday it would suspend flows through the Sokhranovka transit point, which it said delivered almost a third of fuel piped from Russia to Europe via Ukraine.

    GTSOU said it was declaring "force majeure", invoked when a business is hit by something beyond its control, and proposed diverting deliveries for Europe to another route, the Sudzha entry point, the biggest of Ukraine's two crossing points.

    GTSOU Chief Executive Sergiy Makogon said Russian occupying forces had started taking gas and sending it to Russia-backed separatist regions in east Ukraine. He did not cite evidence.
    This is a highly provocative action...but it's still just self-defense. Russia started this. I'm actually curious why they didn't do this before. Did they think it would cause a stronger retaliation? Did the complete objective failure of Russia's "military" demonstrate they need no longer be afraid?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Putin's beloved USSR lost millions of troops during the WW2, so rest assured he's willing to lose a million for a victory over "the West".
    It's just not the same when you're not fighting Nazis, though. And while I don't see Putin losing a million in this war (yeah, my track record's been "mixed" on this whole war) there's a big difference between losing a million stopping the worst force of evil in the last 100 years, and losing 100k against a much smaller country just minding its own business.

    Which is more embarrassing: wiping on Mythic Anduin, or failing to complete a +2 in the time limit?

  14. #19214
    The Lightbringer Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    To be fair, from a Russian PoV 20k or even 120k isn't that much. Putin's beloved USSR lost millions of troops during the WW2, so rest assured he's willing to lose a million for a victory over "the West".
    He may be, but those around him? Their families? How many will accept: your son died in an accident, not in Ukraine, so no compensation for you. Also if he wants to well and truly fuck russia's demographics for generations to come as well as cause a huge brain drain then that's the way to do it.

    Ukraine starts to fuck with Russia's fuel lines.

    Happy V Day!

    This is a highly provocative action...but it's still just self-defense. Russia started this. I'm actually curious why they didn't do this before. Did they think it would cause a stronger retaliation? Did the complete objective failure of Russia's "military" demonstrate they need no longer be afraid?
    Don't forget that this is gas going to the European countries HELPING Ukraine, this is not without risk for Ukraine. I understand their rationale and sorta agree with it: "we can no longer perform maintenance and monitor the exchange adequately", but this is potentially going to cause issues.
    Last edited by Iphie; 2022-05-11 at 04:16 PM.

  15. #19215
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    This is a highly provocative action...but it's still just self-defense. Russia started this. I'm actually curious why they didn't do this before. Did they think it would cause a stronger retaliation? Did the complete objective failure of Russia's "military" demonstrate they need no longer be afraid?
    They most likely checked all their bases with the rest of europe, before doing this. If they had done this from the get go, they might not have received the support they have.

  16. #19216
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Combatbulter View Post
    They most likely checked all their bases with the rest of europe, before doing this. If they had done this from the get go, they might not have received the support they have.
    I considered that, but I figured at the start of the war they were angry at the lack of support. You're probably right, and the response they're getting shows they made the right call.

    Hey, anyone check on MOEX recently?



    OH NO

  17. #19217
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    It's not exactly around the corner. There's 2 years and spare to go. If Putin's plan is to drag this out until Trump is back in the White House and assuming he would be back in the White House, that's an insane gamble. He lost about 20k men already (and about 3 times as many wounded) and we're not even 3 months into this. Even if the intensity of the active fighting diminishes to a point where their casualties drop to about a thousand or so a month, that would another 26 to 27 thousand dead before 2024.

    It's clear that Putin is the king of shit plans, but this would be the dumbest plan of them all.

    I honestly don't think Trump is a consideration for the Russians here.

    It's clear that the Russians have at this point have given up on Kharkiv, the long game here is probably taking as much land as possible in the south, and then negotiate based on that. Odessa is also something the Russians would really like to get their hands on, but the odds of getting that are realistically lower than taking Kharkiv at this point.
    I mentioned Trump because it is a factor and the fact that Russia has no incentive to stop at the moment. There's no way to know when the fighting would stop, they have been at it for years before this escallation.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    You're arguing pro-Trump here. A strong way to impede Trump is to ruin Russia as much as possible, which is exactly what Democrats are doing. But you want them to stop doing that.
    Oh yea that's me totally pro-Trump /s

    You have zero evidence that Ukraine is going to do anything for democrats, polling shows near indifference. Foreign policy hasn't decided an US election in forever no reason to start now.

  18. #19218
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    I mentioned Trump because it is a factor and the fact that Russia has no incentive to stop at the moment. There's no way to know when the fighting would stop, they have been at it for years before this escallation.
    There's a huge difference between the situation now and the situation before.

    The economic, military and political costs are nowhere near comparable. The Crimea/Separatist thing cost very little, this, this is an entirely different situation.

  19. #19219
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    There's a huge difference between the situation now and the situation before.

    The economic, military and political costs are nowhere near comparable. The Crimea/Separatist thing cost very little, this, this is an entirely different situation.
    Again stopping doesn't stop any of this from continuing, the US wants regime change or total victory short of that. There's only stick no carrot so forward is the only way.

  20. #19220
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    Again stopping doesn't stop any of this from continuing, the US wants regime change or total victory short of that. There's only stick no carrot so forward is the only way.
    It's not what about the US wants. When you say that you legitimize the Russian position that this is a conflict between the US and Russia. It's not. This is a conflict between Russian delusions of empire and everyone else.

    There is a carrot, the carrot is always there. The carrot is in the simple fact that waging war is costly, politically and economically. Stopping right now improves the political climate and actually would allow Russia to open talks with Ukraine, EU, US etc. It's much harder to call for talks while you're bombing children and raping women, furthermore it just saves money, resources, fuel, etc.

    If Putin had a shred of fucking sanity left the reasonable thing to do would be to ask for a full armistice with 4 way peace talks US-EU-Ukraine-Russia.

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