Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

It's sunk cost fallacy by now. Putin has spent so much in this, wrecked his army and economy in the process, for nothing, so he feels he has to keep pressing on.

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The Russian appointed authorities in Kherson have asked to become part of Russia.

Also the UK and Sweden have signed an agreement to come to each other assistance if either is attacked. Basically a guarantee until they join NATO, which looks a certainty now after this agreement.

Funny how Peskov says this in response:

In response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was for residents of Kherson to decide their own fate. He added that there needed to be a clear legal basis for such a move, claiming there had been one for the annexation of Crimea by Russian forces in 2014.

You'd almost think he's like, eh, well not so hasty fellas.

Bojo is coming to Finland as well so I assume a similar thing will happen here.

[Flarelaine]

I feel like protracted, asymmetrical wars generally favor the local forces, historically. Even when the invading forces have considerably training, technological, and numbers advantages, or at least supposedly have those advantages. The training and technology on the Russian front is not exactly impressive so far.

Afghanistan.

[Ripster42]

Downed Russian fighter jets are being found with basic GPS 'taped to the dashboards,' UK defense minister says

No freaking way.

The explanation we were given by the resident russian shill, when we were first shown photos of this around the time that russia shot down that airliner in ukraine, was that it's cheaper to do it this way, and why shouldn't russia use GPS signals? With absolutely zero awareness about everything that says about soviet strategy

[Draco-Onis]

I hope that the Russians are dumb enough to keep this up for years. Altho they'll at some point be fighting on Russians ground if they do so.

In the end, I hope it'll end with the Russian federation beeing dismantled. Preferebly with a western mindset in the wstern republics. China can absorb the Eastern ones.

Russia isn't going to be dismantled greatly diminished but people underestimate how much it takes for a nation to collapse. I am also dumbfounded by people wanting a nuclear power going to shit, when the USSR collapsed we got really lucky. I also don't think it's dumb for them to keep going, what do they have to gain by not stopping? the EU is going to cut them off sooner or later, the sanctions are not going to be rolled back since the US is openly saying they want nothing short of total victory and regime change.

What would be their motivation to reverse course?

[Kaleredar]

Russia isn't going to be dismantled greatly diminished but people underestimate how much it takes for a nation to collapse. I am also dumbfounded by people wanting a nuclear power going to shit, when the USSR collapsed we got really lucky. I also don't think it's dumb for them to keep going, what do they have to gain by not stopping? the EU is going to cut them off sooner or later, the sanctions are not going to be rolled back since the US is openly saying they want nothing short of total victory and regime change.

What would be their motivation to reverse course?

…that otherwise russia collapses into internal strife and conflict? And they only have themselves to blame for it? And no other country is going to come in and “save them from themselves?”

Russia has seen two major regimes changes in just a hair over 100 years. It seems errant for people to assume that’s just something that can’t happen anymore.

[Draco-Onis]

…that otherwise russia collapses into internal strife and conflict? And they only have themselves to blame for it? And no other country is going to come in and “save them from themselves?”

Russia has seen two major regimes changes in just a hair over 100 years. It seems errant for people to assume that’s just something that can’t happen anymore.

But stopping would not do anything to stop that would it if anything it would accelerate it. I never said it can't happen I am saying it's harder than people think and we should not wish for it since that's playing with fire. Unless Putin is given an out this will go on for years.

[Kaleredar]

But stopping would not do anything to stop that would it if anything it would accelerate it. I never said it can't happen I am saying it's harder than people think and we should not wish for it since that's playing with fire. Unless Putin is given an out this will go on for years.

putin’s “out” is fucking on off out of Ukraine.

Effectively coddling some immediate, very real evil in the vague fear of avoiding some unknown, hypothetical evil is also errant.

[Draco-Onis]

putin’s “out” is fucking on off out of Ukraine.

Effectively coddling some immediate, very real evil in the vague fear of avoiding some unknown, hypothetical evil is also errant.

I am not sure why you are on your high horse about coddling evil, should I start listing the evils we coddle, fund and protect all over the world? This ought to be about the best thing for Ukraine and they should ultimately decide that, Zelinsky seems open to compromises to stop the fighting. Let's also be frank the US presidential election is around the corner and there's a non zero chance that Putin will have his ally back in the white house.

[Mihalik]

I am not sure why you are on your high horse about coddling evil, should I start listing the evils we coddle, fund and protect all over the world? This ought to be about the best thing for Ukraine and they should ultimately decide that, Zelinsky seems open to compromises to stop the fighting. Let's also be frank the US presidential election is around the corner and there's a non zero chance that Putin will have his ally back in the white house.

It's not exactly around the corner. There's 2 years and spare to go. If Putin's plan is to drag this out until Trump is back in the White House and assuming he would be back in the White House, that's an insane gamble. He lost about 20k men already (and about 3 times as many wounded) and we're not even 3 months into this. Even if the intensity of the active fighting diminishes to a point where their casualties drop to about a thousand or so a month, that would another 26 to 27 thousand dead before 2024.

It's clear that Putin is the king of shit plans, but this would be the dumbest plan of them all.

I honestly don't think Trump is a consideration for the Russians here.

It's clear that the Russians have at this point have given up on Kharkiv, the long game here is probably taking as much land as possible in the south, and then negotiate based on that. Odessa is also something the Russians would really like to get their hands on, but the odds of getting that are realistically lower than taking Kharkiv at this point.

[Cynep]

I am not sure why you are on your high horse about coddling evil, should I start listing the evils we coddle, fund and protect all over the world? This ought to be about the best thing for Ukraine and they should ultimately decide that, Zelinsky seems open to compromises to stop the fighting. Let's also be frank the US presidential election is around the corner and there's a non zero chance that Putin will have his ally back in the white house.

You're arguing pro-Trump here. A strong way to impede Trump is to ruin Russia as much as possible, which is exactly what Democrats are doing. But you want them to stop doing that.

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If Putin's plan is to drag this out until Trump is back in the White House and assuming he would be back in the White House, that's an insane gamble. He lost about 20k men already (and about 3 times as many wounded) and we're not even 3 months into this. Even if the intensity of the active fighting diminishes to a point where their casualties drop to about a thousand or so a month, that would another 26 to 27 thousand dead before 2024.

To be fair, from a Russian PoV 20k or even 120k isn't that much. Putin's beloved USSR lost millions of troops during the WW2, so rest assured he's willing to lose a million for a victory over "the West".

[Breccia]

Ukraine starts to fuck with Russia's fuel lines.

Happy V Day!

Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine fell by a quarter on Wednesday after Kyiv halted use of a major transit route blaming interference by occupying Russian forces, the first time exports via Ukraine have been disrupted since the invasion.

Ukraine has remained a major transit route for Russian gas to Europe even after Moscow launched what it calls a "special military operation" on Feb. 24.

The transit point Ukraine shut usually handles about 8% of Russian gas flows to Europe, although European states said they were still receiving supplies. The Ukraine corridor mostly sends gas to Austria, Italy, Slovakia and other east European states.

GTSOU, which operates Ukraine's gas system, said on Tuesday it would suspend flows through the Sokhranovka transit point, which it said delivered almost a third of fuel piped from Russia to Europe via Ukraine.

GTSOU said it was declaring "force majeure", invoked when a business is hit by something beyond its control, and proposed diverting deliveries for Europe to another route, the Sudzha entry point, the biggest of Ukraine's two crossing points.

GTSOU Chief Executive Sergiy Makogon said Russian occupying forces had started taking gas and sending it to Russia-backed separatist regions in east Ukraine. He did not cite evidence.

This is a highly provocative action...but it's still just self-defense. Russia started this. I'm actually curious why they didn't do this before. Did they think it would cause a stronger retaliation? Did the complete objective failure of Russia's "military" demonstrate they need no longer be afraid?

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Putin's beloved USSR lost millions of troops during the WW2, so rest assured he's willing to lose a million for a victory over "the West".

It's just not the same when you're not fighting Nazis, though. And while I don't see Putin losing a million in this war (yeah, my track record's been "mixed" on this whole war) there's a big difference between losing a million stopping the worst force of evil in the last 100 years, and losing 100k against a much smaller country just minding its own business.

Which is more embarrassing: wiping on Mythic Anduin, or failing to complete a +2 in the time limit?

[Iphie]

To be fair, from a Russian PoV 20k or even 120k isn't that much. Putin's beloved USSR lost millions of troops during the WW2, so rest assured he's willing to lose a million for a victory over "the West".

He may be, but those around him? Their families? How many will accept: your son died in an accident, not in Ukraine, so no compensation for you. Also if he wants to well and truly fuck russia's demographics for generations to come as well as cause a huge brain drain then that's the way to do it.

Ukraine starts to fuck with Russia's fuel lines.

Happy V Day!

This is a highly provocative action...but it's still just self-defense. Russia started this. I'm actually curious why they didn't do this before. Did they think it would cause a stronger retaliation? Did the complete objective failure of Russia's "military" demonstrate they need no longer be afraid?

Don't forget that this is gas going to the European countries HELPING Ukraine, this is not without risk for Ukraine. I understand their rationale and sorta agree with it: "we can no longer perform maintenance and monitor the exchange adequately", but this is potentially going to cause issues.

[Combatbutler]

This is a highly provocative action...but it's still just self-defense. Russia started this. I'm actually curious why they didn't do this before. Did they think it would cause a stronger retaliation? Did the complete objective failure of Russia's "military" demonstrate they need no longer be afraid?

They most likely checked all their bases with the rest of europe, before doing this. If they had done this from the get go, they might not have received the support they have.

[Breccia]

They most likely checked all their bases with the rest of europe, before doing this. If they had done this from the get go, they might not have received the support they have.

I considered that, but I figured at the start of the war they were angry at the lack of support. You're probably right, and the response they're getting shows they made the right call.

Hey, anyone check on MOEX recently?



OH NO

[Draco-Onis]

It's not exactly around the corner. There's 2 years and spare to go. If Putin's plan is to drag this out until Trump is back in the White House and assuming he would be back in the White House, that's an insane gamble. He lost about 20k men already (and about 3 times as many wounded) and we're not even 3 months into this. Even if the intensity of the active fighting diminishes to a point where their casualties drop to about a thousand or so a month, that would another 26 to 27 thousand dead before 2024.

It's clear that Putin is the king of shit plans, but this would be the dumbest plan of them all.

I honestly don't think Trump is a consideration for the Russians here.

It's clear that the Russians have at this point have given up on Kharkiv, the long game here is probably taking as much land as possible in the south, and then negotiate based on that. Odessa is also something the Russians would really like to get their hands on, but the odds of getting that are realistically lower than taking Kharkiv at this point.

I mentioned Trump because it is a factor and the fact that Russia has no incentive to stop at the moment. There's no way to know when the fighting would stop, they have been at it for years before this escallation.

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You're arguing pro-Trump here. A strong way to impede Trump is to ruin Russia as much as possible, which is exactly what Democrats are doing. But you want them to stop doing that.

Oh yea that's me totally pro-Trump /s

You have zero evidence that Ukraine is going to do anything for democrats, polling shows near indifference. Foreign policy hasn't decided an US election in forever no reason to start now.

[Mihalik]

I mentioned Trump because it is a factor and the fact that Russia has no incentive to stop at the moment. There's no way to know when the fighting would stop, they have been at it for years before this escallation.

There's a huge difference between the situation now and the situation before.

The economic, military and political costs are nowhere near comparable. The Crimea/Separatist thing cost very little, this, this is an entirely different situation.

[Draco-Onis]

There's a huge difference between the situation now and the situation before.

The economic, military and political costs are nowhere near comparable. The Crimea/Separatist thing cost very little, this, this is an entirely different situation.

Again stopping doesn't stop any of this from continuing, the US wants regime change or total victory short of that. There's only stick no carrot so forward is the only way.

[Mihalik]

Again stopping doesn't stop any of this from continuing, the US wants regime change or total victory short of that. There's only stick no carrot so forward is the only way.

It's not what about the US wants. When you say that you legitimize the Russian position that this is a conflict between the US and Russia. It's not. This is a conflict between Russian delusions of empire and everyone else.

There is a carrot, the carrot is always there. The carrot is in the simple fact that waging war is costly, politically and economically. Stopping right now improves the political climate and actually would allow Russia to open talks with Ukraine, EU, US etc. It's much harder to call for talks while you're bombing children and raping women, furthermore it just saves money, resources, fuel, etc.

If Putin had a shred of fucking sanity left the reasonable thing to do would be to ask for a full armistice with 4 way peace talks US-EU-Ukraine-Russia.

[Gorsameth]

You're arguing pro-Trump here. A strong way to impede Trump is to ruin Russia as much as possible, which is exactly what Democrats are doing. But you want them to stop doing that.

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To be fair, from a Russian PoV 20k or even 120k isn't that much. Putin's beloved USSR lost millions of troops during the WW2, so rest assured he's willing to lose a million for a victory over "the West".

Bodies is not the problem, equipment is.

[Draco-Onis]

It's not what about the US wants. When you say that you legitimize the Russian position that this is a conflict between the US and Russia. It's not. This is a conflict between Russian delusions of empire and everyone else.

Biden and several senators including a democrat on Fox news have made similar statements. There's no take backsies in politics and some are not even bothering and saying it out loud proudly.

There is a carrot, the carrot is always there. The carrot is in the simple fact that waging war is costly, politically and economically. Stopping right now improves the political climate and actually would allow Russia to open talks with Ukraine, EU, US etc. It's much harder to call for talks while you're bombing children and raping women, furthermore it just saves money, resources, fuel, etc.

If Putin had a shred of fucking sanity left the reasonable thing to do would be to ask for a full armistice with 4 way peace talks US-EU-Ukraine-Russia.

They already have sunk cost there's no benefit politically because Putin would look weak and be ashamed turning tail. We call for talks while bombings and raping women happen all the time. You are talking about saving things that are irrelevant compared to what they have already invested. The US and the EU have not given any incentive or guarantees that would entice Putin.