1. #19301
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    Don't they have trouble with their logistics and equipment already?
    i mean domestic shortages (food etc)

  2. #19302
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonnysensible View Post
    i mean domestic shortages (food etc)
    sure, that too, why not at this point

    I don't get the plan behind all of this if there even is a plan.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before. A bunch of times actually.
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I never said I was knowledge-able and I wouldn't even care if I was the least knowledge-able person and the biggest dumb-ass out of all 7.8 billion people on the planet.

  3. #19303
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    sure, that too, why not at this point

    I don't get the plan behind all of this if there even is a plan.
    Declaration of War or any sort of upgrade from "special operation" status would allow Russia to cut the crap internally and proceed with wartime measures.

    Meaning refitting/forcing industries to work for the war effort and supply, as well as call in reservists and bringing out more equipment out of stores.

    It's not going to change much short term, but it might manifest itself in a more meaningful way in a matter of few months.
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  4. #19304
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Declaration of War or any sort of upgrade from "special operation" status would allow Russia to cut the crap internally and proceed with wartime measures.

    Meaning refitting/forcing industries to work for the war effort and supply, as well as call in reservists and bringing out more equipment out of stores.

    It's not going to change much short term, but it might manifest itself in a more meaningful way in a matter of few months.
    And they can't do this while pretending it is still just a special operation? I mean, that's where they draw the line?
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before. A bunch of times actually.
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I never said I was knowledge-able and I wouldn't even care if I was the least knowledge-able person and the biggest dumb-ass out of all 7.8 billion people on the planet.

  5. #19305
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    And they can't do this while pretending it is still just a special operation? I mean, that's where they draw the line?
    No they can't because they are jumping out of their skin now trying to convince populace that it's all business as usual and nothing to worry about. They try to not disrupt common affairs there for as much as possible.

    With this being upgraded to actual war times, they won't need to waste their time beating around the bush and they will increase amount of resources available to them for this as a result.

    A tiny example could be conscripting semi-trailers and their drivers to the active duty, as a way to improve logistics, because "it's war, komrad".
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  6. #19306
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    No they can't because they are jumping out of their skin now trying to convince populace that it's all business as usual and nothing to worry about. They try to not disrupt common affairs there for as much as possible.

    With this being upgraded to actual war times, they won't need to waste their time beating around the bush and they will increase amount of resources available to them for this as a result.

    A tiny example could be conscripting semi-trailers and their drivers to the active duty, as a way to improve logistics, because "it's war, komrad".
    Hu, ok. I mean, they could also just lie about the state of affairs and tell their companies that it's safe and we need to move stuff there because it's now part of Russia and everything is fine, no? It's not like they don't control everything anyway, why would they need to conscribe people to do these things. Wouldn't that also paint a way better picture for the people at home?
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before. A bunch of times actually.
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I never said I was knowledge-able and I wouldn't even care if I was the least knowledge-able person and the biggest dumb-ass out of all 7.8 billion people on the planet.

  7. #19307
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    Hu, ok. I mean, they could also just lie about the state of affairs and tell their companies that it's safe and we need to move stuff there because it's now part of Russia and everything is fine, no? It's not like they don't control everything anyway, why would they need to conscribe people to do these things. Wouldn't that also paint a way better picture for the people at home?
    It's not going to be easy to lie to get 30 and 40 year old reservists with families and jobs to join a war.

  8. #19308
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    Hu, ok. I mean, they could also just lie about the state of affairs and tell their companies that it's safe and we need to move stuff there because it's now part of Russia and everything is fine, no? It's not like they don't control everything anyway, why would they need to conscribe people to do these things. Wouldn't that also paint a way better picture for the people at home?
    There is a limit to what they can do without risking a major backlash, unless there is a good reason.

    You simply need to ask yourself why they even bothered with the whole "special operation" schtick to begin with.

    I'll spoil it - so they can reassure populace that there is nothing to worry about and impact to their daily lives will be minimal. It is important for the government there to manage public opinion, they are not really North Korea and public discontent there can be a dangerous thing for the regime.

    They have no issues lying, but they can't really go ahead and tell their companies and civvies to go on financial and personnel suicide missions out of blue within constraints of supposedly "business as usual" time with some "special operation" going on.

    It's really not unlike any other country - war times enable war time acts, something they can't do otherwise. It's really same thing as US' Defense Production Act - ability to tell companies and industries what to make and do. Russia in war-times will be free to order to do that, unlike now.

    Same goes again for conscripting private equipment for war effort and what not. They can't do it now without major wtf response from the people.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by zorkuus View Post
    It's not going to be easy to lie to get 30 and 40 year old reservists with families and jobs to join a war.
    And yes this too.
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  9. #19309
    this is the UW take :

    March 5, 2022

    The early announcement of the 2022 spring draft is unlikely to increase Russian combat power in Ukraine in the near term.
    Recent Russian efforts to create a Western-style reserve force are unlikely to materially impact combat operations in Ukraine.
    As Russia exhausts its high-readiness units staffed with contract soldiers, the quality of reinforcements is likely to be much lower than the units first committed to the invasion.

    The Russian military is a hybrid format combining a traditional cadre-and-reserve conscript system and a contract-professional system. While the Russian Army has made efforts to professionalize its ranks, particularly in the last 15 years, it remains reliant on conscripts, both for its active-duty force and for its reserve forces in the event of general mobilization.[1] Most combat units must be filled out by conscripts or mobilized reservists in order to be combat-capable. Contract soldiers are concentrated in the cadre and elite units, especially the airborne units.

    The cadre-and-reserve units of the Russian Armed Forces are maintained at a low readiness with a limited number of professional staff and conscripts, with the expectation that they would be staffed with reservists in the event of mobilization.[2] The Russians have already used many cadre-and-reserve units in Ukraine, and they have not performed well against the Ukrainians, with some units suffering heavy losses. Russia does not likely have a large reserve of highly skilled contract units remaining, although there are probably some uncommitted forces.

    Conscription

    The Russian Armed Forces conscript men semi-annually, with the fall draft lasting from October 1 until December 31 and the spring draft running from April 1 until July 15.[3] In 2022, the Kremlin announced the spring draft early on February 18.[4] The draft affects all men aged 18 to 27 years old, though some conscripts can be as young as 16 years old.[5] Russian conscripts typically serve one year.[6] The annual conscription pool of all Russian military-aged men is approximately 1.2 million people, though only about half are compelled to present themselves at their local military commissariat (voenkomat). The Russian General Staff reported conscripting 127,000 people for the fall 2021 draft and 134,000 people in spring 2021 out of 672,000 summoned men.[7] The number of conscripts is relatively consistent year on year, with 263,000 in 2020 and 267,000 in 2019.[8] Approximately 261,000 conscripts from 2021 are currently serving across Russian units, with the fall 2021 conscripts entering their third month of training.

    New conscripts undergo a one- to two-month basic training, followed by three-to-six months of advanced training before arriving at their assigned units.[9] Current law precludes conscripts from deploying to combat with less than four months of training; however, martial law or general mobilization could supersede the current policy, allowing for the immediate employment of new conscripts or mobilized reservists.[10] Some of the fall 2021 conscripts are likely already serving in units fighting in Ukraine. The rapid employment of relatively untrained reservists is unlikely to materially increase Russia’s combat power in Ukraine.

    Russian Reserve

    The Russian reserve has over two million former conscripts and contract servicemen on paper, but few are actively trained or prepared for war.[11] Historically, only 10 percent of reservists receive refresher training after completing their initial term of service.[12] Russia lacks the administrative and financial capacity to train reservists on an ongoing basis. According to a 2019 RAND analysis, Russia only had 4,000 to 5,000 troops in what would be considered an active reserve in the Western sense, meaning soldiers attending regular monthly and annual training.[13] Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has repeatedly stated that the Russian Armed Forces hoped to have 80,000-100,000 active reserve members.[14]

    In 2021, the Russian military started a new initiative to remedy its lack of a ready reserve, the Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS-2021). BARS-2021 aimed to establish an active reserve by recruiting volunteer reservists for three-year contract service.[15] BARS-2021 operated on the same principle as US and NATO reserves, where reservists actively train and are compensated. The concept of BARS-2021 was that volunteer Russian reservists would regularly participate in monthly exercises and maintain their mobilization readiness while maintaining their civilian jobs.[16]

    Local administrations began distributing information about enlisting into the Russian reserves throughout late August and early September 2021, offering significant financial incentives.[17] Eligible reservists included soldiers younger than 42, junior officers younger than 47, colonels younger than 57, and other senior officials younger than 52.[18] Reservists would continue training two or three times a month throughout peacetime and form their own military units. The Southern Military District (SMD) announced a goal of having a 38,000-person reserve corps of service veterans, up from 400 people.[19] There is limited information on how many reservists returned to military service; Novokuznetsk data shows that the city planned to gain 220 reservists, but reported only recruiting 20.[20] The Central Military District (CMD) reported conducting a BARS-2022 program from January 24-26, 2022, during which the CMD gained 9,000 reservists.

    The Russian Armed Forces sought to create exclusively reservist units but likely did not accomplish its goals due to low engagement.[21] The Russian Defense Ministry hoped to recruit more than 100,000 reservists starting in August 2021, but it is unlikely the Kremlin was able to achieve its goals on such a short timeline.

    Mobilization

    Current law limits mobilization of reserves to soldiers and sailors younger than 45 and officers younger than 55. Men who transferred to the reserve less than two years ago, fathers of three or more children, and those with criminal records are also exempt from mobilization under current law.[22] The Russian State Duma adopted a bill on February 22 to strengthen general mobilization, making it mandatory for men to appear at a military commissar’s office without receiving a conscription notice from regional authorities.[23] This law will reduce the administrative time needed to enlist conscripts if the Kremlin announces martial law. Russian independent media source Vazhnye Istorii explained that the Russian military can activate both reservists and new conscripts during general mobilization, including those previously exempted from conscription.[24] In the event of a general mobilization, the Russian Army will likely attempt to fill the ranks of nascent reserve units and backfill combat casualties from units already serving in Ukraine.

    The Russian cadre-and-reserve units concentrated around Ukraine before the invasion almost certainly required a significant reserve call-up to fill out. As the ground offensive in Ukraine stalls, the Russian military likely faces a requirement for a new reserve call up to fill out additional units and replace individual losses in these units. There is reporting as of March 5 that 3,000 individual replacements are being mobilized across the Russian border from Kharkiv to replace combat losses in Russian units.[25]

    As early as December 2021, the Russian Committee for Soldier’s Mothers claimed that newly signed reservists and contractors started deploying to units near the Ukrainian border.[26] The Committee claimed that the new reservists arrived in Belgorod Oblast to the following units: Training Military unit in Kovrov (unit number 306616), 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (Valuyki), 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (Boguchar, Valuyki), 4th Guards Tank Division, and 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division.[27] US officials also note that Russian reservists will be integrated across all 120-125 battalion tactical groups following the initial invasion.[28]

    Conclusion

    Russia is likely rapidly exhausting the manpower it can readily use to generate additional effective combat power even as its forces lose combat effectiveness in Ukraine amid high losses. Russian efforts to mobilize more manpower can bring more people into Russian combat units, but those people are unlikely to be well-enough trained or motivated to generate large amounts of new combat power.

    Mobilization efforts are likely to start producing diminishing returns as Russia moves through the categories of fully-trained and recently-released reservists into categories of people further removed from their initial military experiences and/or those who will undergo hasty training before deployment to the front lines. Individual replacements for battlefield losses are unlikely to have the same training as their predecessors, and new units or those reinforced by these augmentees will not have undergone unit-level training prior to employment. More units and reservist replacements will likely appear in Ukraine, therefore, but the net effect on Russia’s actual combat capability will likely be small and diminishing.

    A declaration of martial law and general mobilization would not overcome the structural challenges of Russia’s hybrid cadre-and-reserves and contract-soldier system. Creating cohesive fighting units cannot be accomplished overnight. Replacing individual combat casualties in Ukraine with recalled reservists who have gone years without military training is unlikely to dramatically increase Russian combat power.

  10. #19310
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Declaration of War or any sort of upgrade from "special operation" status would allow Russia to cut the crap internally and proceed with wartime measures.

    Meaning refitting/forcing industries to work for the war effort and supply, as well as call in reservists and bringing out more equipment out of stores.

    It's not going to change much short term, but it might manifest itself in a more meaningful way in a matter of few months.
    I'm not sure how effective it'll be. Russian economy is hard hit enough as it is, training Piotr the 38 years old accountant and Grigori the 45 years old farmer is going to take a long while to be effective, cost a lot of money, and in the meantime our friends Piotr and Grigori aren't contributing much to the economy.

    And given the, erm, uninspiring training standards for Russia's standing forces so far, I strongly doubt the conscripts and reserve units will make a difference. Throwing meat into the grinder isn't how wars are won. Slap me if I'm wrong, but Russia seems more in need of qualified personnel- military vehicle drivers, experienced airmen, artillerists, etc.- and they won't find very many of those by reaching for the bottom of the barrel.
    It is all that is left unsaid upon which tragedies are built -Kreia

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  11. #19311
    It's gonna be over soon guys, I had my mom made a Putin voodoo doll and posted it too Ukraine. Just gotta hope fed-ex does it's job now.

  12. #19312
    Quote Originally Posted by Jastall View Post
    I'm not sure how effective it'll be. Russian economy is hard hit enough as it is, training Piotr the 38 years old accountant and Grigori the 45 years old farmer is going to take a long while to be effective, cost a lot of money, and in the meantime our friends Piotr and Grigori aren't contributing much to the economy.

    And given the, erm, uninspiring training standards for Russia's standing forces so far, I strongly doubt the conscripts and reserve units will make a difference. Throwing meat into the grinder isn't how wars are won. Slap me if I'm wrong, but Russia seems more in need of qualified personnel- military vehicle drivers, experienced airmen, artillerists, etc.- and they won't find very many of those by reaching for the bottom of the barrel.
    You have a shitton of ex-conscripts there. It does not have to be 38 years old Pyotr, it can be 22 years old Ivan too and there are plenty of those in the regions there with little to no income or anything else to do anyway.

    Besides, as I said again - people really think in very narrow terms.

    It's not about Pyotr or Ivan grabbing AK and going down. It's about what government can do as part of war times, as opposed to otherwise. It can be Pyotr's semi-trailer or jeep taken for the war. Or Ivan's factory that produces tractor parts refitted to produce tank parts or plates. They can't really force people to do that now, but when it's war - it's a whole other story.

    As well as much harsher punishments to those who try to dodge. How about some forced labor camps, sounds like a chill idea.

    - - - Updated - - -

    In short, I think I'll stop explaining the obvious in the umpteenth time.

    TLDR - Declaring war allows Russia to implement harsh war time rules, force individuals and businesses to participate, confiscate vehicles/equipment/stuff they deem necessary and in general do shit they could not do otherwise as part of "special operation".

    It does not mean there will be some miracle reversal of Russia in a matter of days refitting and resupplying army and doing what they failed to do so far. But it will considerably bolster the war effort in a matter of few months.
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  13. #19313
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    You have a shitton of ex-conscripts there. It does not have to be 38 years old Pyotr, it can be 22 years old Ivan too and there are plenty of those in the regions there with little to no income or anything else to do anyway.

    Besides, as I said again - people really think in very narrow terms.

    It's not about Pyotr or Ivan grabbing AK and going down. It's about what government can do as part of war times, as opposed to otherwise. It can be Pyotr's semi-trailer or jeep taken for the war. Or Ivan's factory that produces tractor parts refitted to produce tank parts or plates. They can't really force people to do that now, but when it's war - it's a whole other story.

    As well as much harsher punishments to those who try to dodge. How about some forced labor camps, sounds like a chill idea.

    - - - Updated - - -

    In short, I think I'll stop explaining the obvious in the umpteenth time.

    TLDR - Declaring war allows Russia to implement harsh war time rules, force individuals and businesses to participate, confiscate vehicles/equipment/stuff they deem necessary and in general do shit they could not do otherwise as part of "special operation".

    It does not mean there will be some miracle reversal of Russia in a matter of days refitting and resupplying army and doing what they failed to do so far. But it will considerably bolster the war effort in a matter of few months.
    All of those war mobilization measures though even if he does them now won't really come online till later in the year or probably winter again or you risk sending things in dribs and drabs into the meat grinder doing nothing but wasting resources.

  14. #19314
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    You have a shitton of ex-conscripts there. It does not have to be 38 years old Pyotr, it can be 22 years old Ivan too and there are plenty of those in the regions there with little to no income or anything else to do anyway.

    Besides, as I said again - people really think in very narrow terms.

    It's not about Pyotr or Ivan grabbing AK and going down. It's about what government can do as part of war times, as opposed to otherwise. It can be Pyotr's semi-trailer or jeep taken for the war. Or Ivan's factory that produces tractor parts refitted to produce tank parts or plates. They can't really force people to do that now, but when it's war - it's a whole other story.

    As well as much harsher punishments to those who try to dodge. How about some forced labor camps, sounds like a chill idea.

    - - - Updated - - -

    In short, I think I'll stop explaining the obvious in the umpteenth time.

    TLDR - Declaring war allows Russia to implement harsh war time rules, force individuals and businesses to participate, confiscate vehicles/equipment/stuff they deem necessary and in general do shit they could not do otherwise as part of "special operation".

    It does not mean there will be some miracle reversal of Russia in a matter of days refitting and resupplying army and doing what they failed to do so far. But it will considerably bolster the war effort in a matter of few months.
    I'm not contesting that the government can do that. But again, requisitioning trucks, workers, redirecting industry, all that jazz has a cost, to say nothing that all the war footing in the world is hardly helpful if they either can't get the materials to properly supply the armed forces or the qualified personnel to operate the stuff that actually wins the war; tanks, logistical vehicles, aircrafts, et all.

    It will bolster the effort, no doubt about it- but in months, and maybe not enough when you factor in the choices that will be required for full mobilization.
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  15. #19315
    A few months may be a bit late for Russia. Their Donbas offensive has largely stalled out even before the arrival of most of the heavy weaponry promised by Western nations. Can the Russians hold out taking continued heavy losses that long once the Ukrainians start using all the artillery, tanks and other gear they are starting to get now?

    And there is some evidence they are having equipment problems. They recently starting using anti-ship missiles to attack ground targets - they actually put videos out showing them doing that. Yes, Ukraine has no navy to speak of but you wouldn't be using it if you had enough normal missiles left.

    And they finally sent the T90M to the front. These are the most modernised version of the T90, of which they are only meant to have around 20 or so. They are meant to be improved with blow out panels and other features designed to prevent the turret tossing so prevalent in older models, and the T90 is basically just a rebadged T72 anyway. The first one has turned up destroyed.

    Will they declare it a full war on May 9th? Probably not, but they'd want to have something to show for the big display. It may be why they are trying to storm AzovStal, to try and take it before May 9.

  16. #19316
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    A few months may be a bit late for Russia. Their Donbas offensive has largely stalled out even before the arrival of most of the heavy weaponry promised by Western nations. Can the Russians hold out taking continued heavy losses that long once the Ukrainians start using all the artillery, tanks and other gear they are starting to get now?

    And there is some evidence they are having equipment problems. They recently starting using anti-ship missiles to attack ground targets - they actually put videos out showing them doing that. Yes, Ukraine has no navy to speak of but you wouldn't be using it if you had enough normal missiles left.

    And they finally sent the T90M to the front. These are the most modernised version of the T90, of which they are only meant to have around 20 or so. They are meant to be improved with blow out panels and other features designed to prevent the turret tossing so prevalent in older models, and the T90 is basically just a rebadged T72 anyway. The first one has turned up destroyed.

    Will they declare it a full war on May 9th? Probably not, but they'd want to have something to show for the big display. It may be why they are trying to storm AzovStal, to try and take it before May 9.
    saw the us sec def guy call the donbas offensive anemic. Said Russians would take areas, declare victory and then withdraw.

    ukrainians pushing 40miles around kharkiv can now threaten supply lines with artillery.

    Azovstal must be absolute hell, couldn't imagine storming those tunnels or defending them, expect heavy usage of thermobaric weapons.

  17. #19317
    Elemental Lord PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonnysensible View Post
    Azovstal must be absolute hell, couldn't imagine storming those tunnels or defending them, expect heavy usage of thermobaric weapons.
    Russia has moved most of its troops out of the Mariupol, so...


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  18. #19318
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Russia has moved most of its troops out of the Mariupol, so...
    Reportedly they have pulled 10 of the 12 BTGs out to refit, and the last 2 are cobbled together and include a lot of Chechens. Two birds, one stone as far as Russia is concerned.

  19. #19319
    Elemental Lord PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Reportedly they have pulled 10 of the 12 BTGs out to refit, and the last 2 are cobbled together and include a lot of Chechens. Two birds, one stone as far as Russia is concerned.
    Yes, that's the news to which I was referring. What I meant by it was that they may be getting ready to employ measures other than direct person-to-person fighting to clear out the tunnels.

    Or they could just be letting them starve to death, who knows.


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  20. #19320
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Russia has moved most of its troops out of the Mariupol, so...
    still looks mean there tho https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/st...350209/photo/1

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