Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Poopymonster]

yeah, so yellow here is Ukrainian range and red is russian range, and now those big ones from the Netherlands and Germany are on the way...their range is 30-60km dependant on ammunition, they're easily out ranging the russians. It's shocking to see the difference.:

Once they get fully trained on the new equipment, it'll be interesting.

[Rasulis]

They are not on the Russian side, but they are not on our side either. And they still buy stuff from Russia since they are more of the "interested friend" kind. If push come to shove and they are forced to chose, not sure they would pick our side. Maybe, but still not a 100% chance.

As long as China is around, push comes to shove, India will pick the US side.

India seizes $725 million China's Xiaomi over remittances

My enemy's enemy is my friend and all that rot.

The Philippine's military have close ties to the US. The US & Philippine's militaries have started working on shared military's bases.

Same with Indonesia. Jokowi would like to stay neutral. However, Indonesian military has very close ties to the US. Annual joint trainings with Hawaii and California National Guards, submarine base in Natuna, joint Maritime Training Center, etc.

I guarantee that if they have to choose that they will pick the US.

Ultimately, it comes down to economy. In terms of export/import, the US/EU alliance is worth 100 times that of Russia. That is true even for country like Vietnam.

The problem with self-sufficient fortress economy is that the country ended with no shared economic interests with other countries.

[Corvus]

Russia's ever shrinking goals for envelopment. And its doubtful they can even pull the latest modest plans off.



The British are estimating that Russia has lost one third of the combat ground forces it initially assembled for the invasion. That was the bulk of their 'professional' army. Reportedly things are going so well that they are stripping ship crews of their naval vessels to replenish naval infantry brigades that have been chewed up. Given that naval crews aren't exactly trained for ground combat, its just going to keep getting worse.

The Donets river crossing disaster is even filtering through to the Russian military bloggers, some of who are embedded with Russian forces. They are still blaming bad commanders rather than Putin but its a start.

And the Russian ambassador at the US has hinted that there are some in the Kremlin who want the whole thing over with. Not him, of course. Don't want to suicide out of the window naturally. He is adamant that they will never surrender. Never. No body has been calling for Russia to surrender. That the Russians are talking about it may be a sign that they can see things are going very badly.

[Zaydin]

As long as China is around, push comes to shove, India will pick the US side.

India seizes $725 million China's Xiaomi over remittances

My enemy's enemy is my friend and all that rot.

The Philippine's military have close ties to the US. The US & Philippine's militaries have started working on shared military's bases.

Same with Indonesia. Jokowi would like to stay neutral. However, Indonesian military has very close ties to the US. Annual joint trainings with Hawaii and California National Guards, submarine base in Natuna, joint Maritime Training Center, etc.

I guarantee that if they have to choose that they will pick the US.

Ultimately, it comes down to economy. In terms of export/import, the US/EU alliance is worth 100 times that of Russia. That is true even for country like Vietnam.

The problem with self-sufficient fortress economy is that the country ended with no shared economic interests with other countries.

Your link is busted.

[Rasulis]

Your link is busted.

Thank you. Fixed below.

India Seizes $725 Million China's Xiaomi Over Remittances

Tension between India and China kept increasing. Russia is not going to side with India against China. Like it or not, India's only option is US/EU/AUS.

[Specialka]

Thank you. Fixed below.

India Seizes $725 Million China's Xiaomi Over Remittances

Tension between India and China kept increasing. Russia is not going to side with India against China. Like it or not, India's only option is US/EU/AUS.

Most India's military equipment is from Russia. It would cost them a lot of money if they had to rebuy all that stuff.

[Mihalik]

They are not on the Russian side, but they are not on our side either. And they still buy stuff from Russia since they are more of the "interested friend" kind. If push come to shove and they are forced to chose, not sure they would pick our side. Maybe, but still not a 100% chance.

Russia literally can't handle a country the third of its size. The aid Ukraine is getting is like 1/10th of what would count as pocket change of the agregate military spending capacity of NATO, which still by all intents and purposes remains a fully peace time economy.

If Western countries really leaned into this there would be no comparison worth discussing.

So why in the gods green earth would anyone willingly side with Russia in any meaningful way? I mean countries like Belarus don't have a choice, yet they still don't have troops in the fight, but even countries that are well within the Russian sphere of influence refuse to side with Russia on this, like Kazakhstan.

Do you legit think, there's any scenario, ever, anywhere, where India would go -Yeah! Let's go to war with the US and EU.....for Russia....

[Crispin]

Like half the global population since China + India are what now ? 3 billions or 4 combined ? Then you add Africa country which have no love for westerners.

1) They're both not even 3 billion, but what does a billion more matter, when you're trying to prove something with nothing to back it up.

2) 4/5 of the worlds population support the Ukraine and the West, source? My feelings on the matter. besides China and India are just 1 billion people (love making up numbers to support my feelings)

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Most India's military equipment is from Russia. It would cost them a lot of money if they had to rebuy all that stuff.

Who says they'd have to replace it? Russia does not have some magic remote to Russian made equipment, which enables them to disable it.

There are several countries, including India, who would rather not be pulled into this conflict.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1115782

[Specialka]

Russia literally can't handle a country the third of its size. The aid Ukraine is getting is like 1/10th of what would count as pocket change of the agregate military spending capacity of NATO, which still by all intents and purposes remains a fully peace time economy.

If Western countries really leaned into this there would be no comparison worth discussing.

So why in the gods green earth would anyone willingly side with Russia in any meaningful way? I mean countries like Belarus don't have a choice, yet they still don't have troops in the fight, but even countries that are well within the Russian sphere of influence refuse to side with Russia on this, like Kazakhstan.

Do you legit think, there's any scenario, ever, anywhere, where India would go -Yeah! Let's go to war with the US and EU.....for Russia....

By siding, I do not mean going to war for or with them but rather, not sanctioning and still buying stuff from them, etc...

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1) They're both not even 3 billion, but what does a billion more matter, when you're trying to prove something with nothing to back it up.

2) 4/5 of the worlds population support the Ukraine and the West, source? My feelings on the matter. besides China and India are just 1 billion people (love making up numbers to support my feelings)

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Who says they'd have to replace it? Russia does not have some magic remote to Russian made equipment, which enables them to disable it.

There are several countries, including India, who would rather not be pulled into this conflict.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1115782

Because if they "sanction" Russia, they will lose access to maintenance and repair parts for those equipment.

[Crispin]

By siding, I do not mean going to war for or with them but rather, not sanctioning and still buying stuff from them, etc...

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Because if they "sanction" Russia, they will lose access to maintenance and repair parts for those equipment.

What makes you think that Russia have a crew of workers, traveling the globe to perform service on sold equipment? Just to clarify, I have no idea if they do, but you seem to do.

In the end, India is playing the neutral game

[Masark]

Because if they "sanction" Russia, they will lose access to maintenance and repair parts for those equipment.

They probably aren't going to be getting any of those anyway, given that Russia doesn't appear to have enough of those for their own needs, much having a surplus to sell.

[Mihalik]

By siding, I do not mean going to war for or with them but rather, not sanctioning and still buying stuff from them, etc...

At this moment the pressure for obeying sanctions on countries like India and China is minimal to non existent.

Still most Chinese financial and tech companies are voluntarily obeying the sanction rules.

Same for the largest Indian industrial groups like Tata.

For them it's just not worth the risk to annoy their western partners, customers, lenders, regulators etc, even tho there are no explicit demands asking them to do anything.

If the Western powers (including Japan, Korea etc) get collectively annoyed enough to go -Fuck it! Full total embargo with punishments for third parties who don't abide by the embargo - Do you think India or China would risk dealing with the fallout from that and say -We just love the Russians and their shitty outdated hardware so much that we are willing to risk total economic meltdown for them?

There are 2 reasons why we aren't demanding India/China to abide by the sanctions.

1. Is just being respectful of their sovereignty. It's better to get them onboard passively perhaps even quitely than by offending them and making a fuss.

2. It doesn't make a big enough difference for us to care. Neither China nor India can replace EU trade for Russia. And here comes the kicker...they don't really seem that keen to make an effort either. Like they won't even throw the Russians a bone.

[PhaelixWW]

1) They're both not even 3 billion, but what does a billion more matter, when you're trying to prove something with nothing to back it up.

2) 4/5 of the worlds population support the Ukraine and the West, source? My feelings on the matter. besides China and India are just 1 billion people (love making up numbers to support my feelings)

This is just petty, stupid, bad math.

6 of the 9 most populous countries in the world chose not to censure Russia. The 40 countries that voted "no" or abstained account for 4.17b people, which is more than half of the 7.9b people in the world and therefore also certainly more than the 3.28b people in the 135 countries that voted "yes".

I'm not sure why you feel like making up numbers somehow "wins" in a comeback to what amounts to a throwaway comment.

[Crispin]

This is just petty, stupid, bad math.

6 of the 9 most populous countries in the world chose not to censure Russia. The 40 countries that voted "no" or abstained account for 4.17b people, which is more than half of the 7.9b people in the world and therefore also certainly more than the 3.28b people in the 135 countries that voted "yes".

I'm not sure why you feel like making up numbers somehow "wins" in a comeback to what amounts to a throwaway comment.

It's not even math, trying to point out to him, that numbers taken out of the arse, is not usable in any argument. I guess that went over your head.

[Gorsameth]

Because if they "sanction" Russia, they will lose access to maintenance and repair parts for those equipment.

As mentioned, Russia doesn't even have parts to preait things themselves.

And secondly after seeing their Russian bought equipment in action against Western equipment I would not be surprised if more and more in the military start questioning the wisdom of buying more Russian equipment in the future.

[Specialka]

As mentioned, Russia doesn't even have parts to preait things themselves.

And secondly after seeing their Russian bought equipment in action against Western equipment I would not be surprised if more and more in the military start questioning the wisdom of buying more Russian equipment in the future.

The war in Ukraine is not a good advertisement for russian equipment, that is for sure.

But India still has a lot of russian equipment, and they can't switch it overnight.

[Yunru]

Wait a second:


Russa had a young nazi training program for 4 years now.

[PhaelixWW]

It's not even math, trying to point out to him, that numbers taken out of the arse, is not usable in any argument. I guess that went over your head.

Nope. I got exactly what you were saying. You were just playing with a faulty premise when you decided to embarrass yourself. Clearly the only numbers being "taken out of the arse" are yours, because what he said was not false. China and India together are 2.8 billion, which is certainly close enough to the low end of his range of 3 billion to not warrant the shitty response you made. Especially considering the fact that, as pointed out, the remaining countries bring it over 4 billion.

So the other poster was at least close with China + India, and made the point with the other countries added in. You, on the other hand, just made up some numbers in order to combat a point that really didn't need fighting.

I mean, in what world is "I think you're making up numbers, so I'm going to pointlessly make up numbers even worse than you!" in any way close to an adult response? Grow up.

[Breccia]

The British are estimating that Russia has lost one third of the combat ground forces it initially assembled for the invasion.

Son of a сука, that's bad. Holy shit.

Related:

1) McDonalds announced they were fleeing Russia entirely and their stock barely even flinched. They're selling off their stake after 32 years.

2) Russia is intentionally blocking humanitarian aid, possibly because this is genocide, possibly because Putin sent them into a year-long war with one week of food, and they don't want to starve to death.

3) This happened:


"Mr. McConnell, why are you wearing a pink tie?"
"Well it used to be red, but I washed it with my robe."
"Uh...look! A distraction!"
Alternate caption:
"You should look over there, where the sun isn't."
"Yeah I know...but I'm a Trump supporter."

4) India announced a wheat export ban, as they're already losing a lot of their crop to a heat wave. This, combined with Russia fucking with the market already, spiked prices. This is a massive windfall to the US ag market.

5) The EU is preparing another round of sanctions.

6) Basically every news source says Sweden will vote to join NATO soon, maybe even today. Russia shakes its fist angrily.

Problems are being created for no reason at all. We shall react accordingly.

-- Putin, the reason Sweden and Finland joined NATO, and man unable to react

6) NATO openly says Ukraine can win this war.

"That sounds like projection. Surely NATO did not use those exact words."

NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Sunday that “Ukraine can win this war” following an informal meeting of the group.

For the record, I have multiple times said they wouldn't...but could they? That's up to Russia. Russia, as we've seen, is throwing everything from repurposed dishwashers to repurposed sailors at the problem, which could be for a variety of reasons, but I believe it's because Putin sees a full-scale mobilization against a smaller country as a weakness. Remember when the National Guard was sent to Iraq and Afghanistan so we wouldn't have to draft? A scumsucking cockbrain move by W who used the National Guard to dodge Vietnam? Putin's doing that, basically searching under the sofa cushions for loose change rather than hit the ATM. The very week Russia decides to go all-in, actually spending the time, effort, and resources of someone who wants to fight and win a war, Ukraine is finished.

Now, I'm sure some of you will say Russia can't do that, that their corrupt military is plagued with problems from incompetent officers to low-morale troops to equipment that won't work. I hope you're right, but I also think Russia just has the sheer weight of numbers to end this if they really wanted to. So far, Putin hasn't shown he really wants to win. A Heroic raid-geared tank can solo a Heroic dungeon, but not if they pull the entire thing at once, including all 3-5 bosses...well maybe a DK, but that's it. Point is, Russia's not going full force, and it's either because they can't or they don't want to. I think it's the second. I'm okay with never finding out.

Point is, things have changed to the point that we are no longer talking about how long Ukraine survives, but legitimately non-sarcastically if Ukraine can actually push Russia out. People have posted scattered reports of counter-offenses up to Russia's border. And "that could be anyone's building fire!" has come up a lot. Ukraine has done one amazing job, stopping what we until recently thought was a superpower, and while I still don't see them winning, I would no longer put money on it.

[Iphie]

For the record, I have multiple times said they wouldn't...but could they? That's up to Russia. Russia, as we've seen, is throwing everything from repurposed dishwashers to repurposed sailors at the problem, which could be for a variety of reasons, but I believe it's because Putin sees a full-scale mobilization against a smaller country as a weakness. Remember when the National Guard was sent to Iraq and Afghanistan so we wouldn't have to draft? A scumsucking cockbrain move by W who used the National Guard to dodge Vietnam? Putin's doing that, basically searching under the sofa cushions for loose change rather than hit the ATM. The very week Russia decides to go all-in, actually spending the time, effort, and resources of someone who wants to fight and win a war, Ukraine is finished.

Now, I'm sure some of you will say Russia can't do that, that their corrupt military is plagued with problems from incompetent officers to low-morale troops to equipment that won't work. I hope you're right, but I also think Russia just has the sheer weight of numbers to end this if they really wanted to. So far, Putin hasn't shown he really wants to win. A Heroic raid-geared tank can solo a Heroic dungeon, but not if they pull the entire thing at once, including all 3-5 bosses...well maybe a DK, but that's it. Point is, Russia's not going full force, and it's either because they can't or they don't want to. I think it's the second. I'm okay with never finding out.

Point is, things have changed to the point that we are no longer talking about how long Ukraine survives, but legitimately non-sarcastically if Ukraine can actually push Russia out. People have posted scattered reports of counter-offenses up to Russia's border. And "that could be anyone's building fire!" has come up a lot. Ukraine has done one amazing job, stopping what we until recently thought was a superpower, and while I still don't see them winning, I would no longer put money on it.

You also need to take to account what winning entails, for example after the Winter War and the Continuation War Finland was deemed to have lost the war due to having to give up territory, but did they really lose? They kept their independence, and a lot of Finns would have told you at the time that that was winning and for the Karjala takas crowd, do we really want a thoroughly russified area back which will create a significant russian minority in Finland?

Now I'm not saying Ukraine should do that as they set their own win conditions and those may be not what we would see as winning, my point is: Winning is subjective. I would however keep an eye on Kherson and the area north of Izium the coming days/weeks.