Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gorsameth]

I see nothing that would lead me to believe Ukraine cannot push Russia completely out and reclaim both 'republicans'. Perhaps stopping short of reclaiming Crimea.

Russia hasn't gained any meaningful ground in ages and is still losing material at an alarming rate while Ukraine is slowly pushing them back while more and more supplies are send to support them.

[Breccia]

You also need to take to account what winning entails

Indeed. A topic that's come up here a few times is Russia forcing Ukraine to hand over yet another part of their sovereign country. Quite frankly, I would assume at this point Russia just wouldn't want it anymore. It clearly doesn't want them.

[Poopymonster]

Now I'm not saying Ukraine should do that as they set their own win conditions and those may be not what we would see as winning, my point is: Winning is subjective. I would however keep an eye on Kherson and the area north of Izium the coming days/weeks.

At a glance both sides have changed their apparent public "win" conditions.
Russia: Violently eradicate the Ukraine Nazi's, their sympathizers, and the system in charge while bringing the whole country back into the loving bosom of Mother Russia.
Which became: Take over X cities, eradicate the Nazis.
Which became: Take over small portion, having eradicated the Nazis already by leveling cities including Nazi men, Nazi women and Nazi children.
Now they just need a banner saying "Миссия выполнена"

Ukraine: Make Russia pay in bodies and bucks before we're dead. In ass splattering amounts if possible. Survive as long as possible.
Which became: Keep our independence, make them pay.
Which became: Fight back...and win?
Which became: Having overestimated Russia...push them back, retake what's ours!

As long as the Ukraine WANTS to keep fighting off the invasion, they'll get aid whether it's humanitarian, financial, or dakka.

[Draco-Onis]

At a glance both sides have changed their apparent public "win" conditions.
Russia: Violently eradicate the Ukraine Nazi's, their sympathizers, and the system in charge while bringing the whole country back into the loving bosom of Mother Russia.
Which became: Take over X cities, eradicate the Nazis.
Which became: Take over small portion, having eradicated the Nazis already by leveling cities including Nazi men, Nazi women and Nazi children.
Now they just need a banner saying "Миссия выполнена"

Ukraine: Make Russia pay in bodies and bucks before we're dead. In ass splattering amounts if possible. Survive as long as possible.
Which became: Keep our independence, make them pay.
Which became: Fight back...and win?
Which became: Having overestimated Russia...push them back, retake what's ours!

As long as the Ukraine WANTS to keep fighting off the invasion, they'll get aid whether it's humanitarian, financial, or dakka.

It's a pyric victory for whichever country comes out on top, Ukraine was already in deep debt before the invasion, the "aid" isn't free money it's being added to their considerable debt. The millions of people that have fled will be settled in other countries and will not be return. That's not even going into the even larger debt load they will have to take on to rebuild.

The massive corruption problems the country has didn't vanish because they are fighting a war. It's going to be a shit show either way freedom isn't cheap I suppose.

[Breccia]

It's a pyric victory for whichever country comes out on top

Ukraine was attacked for no reason by what should have been a vastly superior foe. I wish there was a better term for this situation.

"He was attacked by a bear!"
"Holy shit, did it kill him?"
"No, broke both his arms and a few ribs, but he managed to chase the bear away!"
"Oh man, what a pyrrhic victory."

Seriously the fact that any level of victory can realistically be obtained is massive. We all knew this war they didn't start was going to cost them dearly.

Related: Russian state-run TV says they should use nukes. I think they've done that before.

Still comes off as saber-rattling more than a buildup to the actual launch. One, Russia's nukes might not work anymore. Two, nobody in their right or even most of their wrong mind would nuke their own border when the prevailing winds blow into their face.

[Draco-Onis]

Seriously the fact that any level of victory can realistically be obtained is massive. We all knew this war they didn't start was going to cost them dearly.

Related: Russian state-run TV says they should use nukes. I think they've done that before.

Still comes off as saber-rattling more than a buildup to the actual launch. One, Russia's nukes might not work anymore. Two, nobody in their right or even most of their wrong mind would nuke their own border when the prevailing winds blow into their face.

Any victory is going to take years unless something changes in Russia, the nuke talk is just saber rattling. There are so many ways to induce nuke level of destruction without having to resort to one. Aside from pure shock and awe or for Russia to be the second country to use nukes on civilians after the US I do not see the point.

[Breccia]

Any victory is going to take years unless something changes in Russia, the nuke talk is just saber rattling.

Agreed and agreed. What I hope changes in Russia is "Russia gives up and goes home". Putin might realize that murdering his own army isn't very wise, or he might have second thoughts on the way out the fifth-floor window while suffering from food poisoning. Oh, wait, he's hiding in his bunker like a fat orange bitch. Well point stands, someone might kill Putin and take over and end the war.

Besides that, yeah, it won't be soon. Putin doesn't care about the people he's sending without food or ammo to die, and Ukraine has proven they're not giving up.

[Gorsameth]

It's a pyric victory for whichever country comes out on top, Ukraine was already in deep debt before the invasion, the "aid" isn't free money it's being added to their considerable debt. The millions of people that have fled will be settled in other countries and will not be return. That's not even going into the even larger debt load they will have to take on to rebuild.

The massive corruption problems the country has didn't vanish because they are fighting a war. It's going to be a shit show either way freedom isn't cheap I suppose.

No, freedom isn't cheap. But it sure as shit beats being a Russian puppet state for the rest of the foreseeable future...

Seriously, there is no such thing as a pyric victory when you survive as a state against overwhelming odds.

[Poopymonster]

Agreed and agreed. What I hope changes in Russia is "Russia gives up and goes home". Putin might realize that murdering his own army isn't very wise, or he might have second thoughts on the way out the fifth-floor window while suffering from food poisoning. Oh, wait, he's hiding in his bunker like a fat orange bitch. Well point stands, someone might kill Putin and take over and end the war.

Besides that, yeah, it won't be soon. Putin doesn't care about the people he's sending without food or ammo to die, and Ukraine has proven they're not giving up.

.
Safe to assume the bunker is below ground.
Be a shame if someone wanting to take over cut the power/lines to the bunker. Especially anything for the door of poor Putinato.
Yes, for the love of God.

[Iphie]

.
Safe to assume the bunker is below ground.
Be a shame if someone wanting to take over cut the power/lines to the bunker. Especially anything for the door of poor Putinato.
Yes, for the love of God.

"Falling out of the window from an underground bunker isn't impossible, merely improbable", Some Dictator somewhere, probably.

I dunno though, he doesn't look as confident as he usually does in his photos today.

Is it bad that my spidey sense is tingling?

I mean, expansion was an issue...

[Rasulis]

Most India's military equipment is from Russia. It would cost them a lot of money if they had to rebuy all that stuff.

According to SIPRI, Russia share of the global arms market dropped by 22% from 26% to 20% between the period of 2011 - 2015 and 2016 - 2020 (see below). In the period between 2019 - 2020, that share dropped to 8.9%. In fact in 2019, for the first time China surpassed Russia with 16% of the market share. More and more the world is turning to US and China for their means of killing people. The US share of the global arms market in 2019 was 51%, with US companies in the top 5, and 12 US companies in the top 25. The biggest factor for the decline in Russia’s share of the global arms market is India.

The spare part market is the most profitable sector of arms market. Basically, now that you have bought our advanced equipment, you are stuck paying whatever price we want to keep the equipment running. This is the one sector where Russia has failed to meet demand. The problem is so severe, India has turned to domestic manufacturing for Russian spare parts. India’s purchase of Russian’s weapons dropped 53% between the period of 2011 - 2015 and 2016 - 2020.

If the Ukraine war is of any indicator, it appears that the problem with Russian arms manufacturing is even worse than suspected. Since India is not likely to buy weapons from China, I suspect that in the next 10 years we will see a gradual shift toward US/EU weapons.

[Breccia]

it appears that the problem with Russian arms manufacturing is even worse than suspected.

Their recent advertising demo surely isn't doing them any favors. "Our very best tanks have almost 20% success against mud, made from the two most common substances on the planet!"

[Dadwen]

Their recent advertising demo surely isn't doing them any favors. "Our very best tanks have almost 20% success against mud, made from the two most common substances on the planet!"

Guessing a lot of spare used parts all over the Ukraine country side, maybe work out a deal with them.

[Biglog]

Erdogan is the new wrinkle, claiming in strongly worded language that Turkey won't approve Sweden and Finland's NATO membership. It is a big problem since the voting for approval must be unanimous. It is in response to Sweden and Finland's past comments and stance on the Turkish treatment of Kurds and Armenian minorities. Erdogan went further today telling Sweden and Finland's diplomats to not bother flying to Turkey to try to change their minds. So this is suddenly a pretty major hurdle for their NATO membership and something to watch.

Sometimes Turkey will take a hard stance as a bargaining ploy hoping to get concessions out a deal (F-35?). Or possibly Finland and Sweden are able to smooth things out with Turkey against seemingly long odds diplomatically. The other possibility would be NATO could force pressure on Turkey to approve it, but that seems much less likely. The most probable outcome seems like one of those quiet deals where Turkey eventually agrees to reluctantly approve it, and conveniently they have new some new hardware show up soon after.

[Gaidax]

Erdogan just wants what he always wants - $$ and flex. It's same reason he holds Syrian refugees too.

In the end someone will toss some greenbacks his way, look other way on some stuff and it will be all good.

[Breccia]

Erdogan is the new wrinkle

What? One of Trump's friends taking political action against someone who called him mean names? What a shock.

I mean, if the problem is Turkey defending their oppression of minorities, well, maybe NATO has another way to make the vote unanimous.

[Biglog]

Got our answer pretty quick on the Turkey situation. It is indeed a concession that he wants, and very a specific one. He said today now that Turkey will approve their NATO membership conditionally on Sweden and Finland extraditing Kurdish "PKK members" to Turkey. I have a feeling they will be very reluctant to do so. The plot thickens...

[Iphie]

Got our answer pretty quick on the Turkey situation. It is indeed a concession that he wants, and very a specific one. He said today now that Turkey will approve their NATO membership conditionally on Sweden and Finland extraditing Kurdish "PKK members" to Turkey. I have a feeling they will be very reluctant to do so. The plot thickens...

Perhaps, or perhaps not, I mean if they are criminals then ask for their arrest and extradition, it only becomes hairy if he wants MP's extradited.

I think the rest of the alliance will however have a pretty dim view of using NATO to pursue an internal political agenda.

[Gaidax]

I mean, if the problem is Turkey defending their oppression of minorities, well, maybe NATO has another way to make the vote unanimous.

That won't be happening in a thousand years.

Turkey is a very important foothold in the Middle East for NATO, a gateway to the Black Sea. At the same time Erdogan is not eternal and he can be negotiated to stand down for goodies as usual.

It's a cheeky NATO member that knows its worth and is more important that half other NATO members.

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Perhaps, or perhaps not, I mean if they are criminals then ask for their arrest and extradition, it only becomes hairy if he wants MP's extradited.

They will find some compromise. Sweden and Finland are going to be in NATO, Turkey will get some concessions and that it.

[Iphie]

They will find some compromise. Sweden and Finland are going to be in NATO, Turkey will get some concessions and that it.

That's my assumption as well, like I said: I seriously doubt the rest of the alliance would bend to Turkey if they were to try and use this as leverage.