Russian invasion of Ukraine

[zealo]

Are none of you people concerned that Putin and Lavrov have been raising nuclear threats so often lately, and casually discussing nuking or invading others, that officials are no longer taking him too seriously anymore? People are under such an impression it's just barking now that countries have prepared to join NATO and/or reinforce their defenses against Putin's threats.

They don't seem to give a shit for the fact he might get angry anymore.

Be sure to check under your bed for scary Russian nukes too.

[YUPPIE]

Due to the poor maintenance of the rest of the Russian military, I question whether Russia even has launch capable nukes ready to go.

That's what people have been claiming to ease their conscience, but no one really wants to find out what a failed launch even looks like.

At this point though, I'm wondering what Putin has to even gain in Ukraine anymore. He hasn't killed everyone there, but he's thoroughly decimated the lands into a desolate wasteland. With the sanctions in place, it will be impossible to make anything of the region again if he kills what's left of its population and wins, considering no one except China and (probably) Hungary will support him.

This whole war has been pointless in terms of gains.

[Finlandia WOAT]

Now, this does not mean that Turkey will go ahead and hard block this forever, as they only want goodies and their leader wants to fluff that dick of his before the elections a year from now. So it will be negotiated and something will give.

There's reason to make a deal here. If Turkey (and Croatia, and whoever else) actually blocks Finland and Sweden from NATO, they piss off a bunch of people it is not a good idea to piss off while getting nothing in return.

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The front is stabilizing, the last battle is the Severodonetsk salient, after that it seems they'll transition into an artillery based long term war of attrition.

Ukraine plan: build up artillery/fresh trained recruits, use artillery to smash whatever fresh troops the Russian Federation can scrape together, then embark on a counter offensive, target date July/August. Zelesnkyy is offering the RF to return to pre Feb 24th lines, otherwise Ukraine is going to aim to retake the Donbas and Crimea.

Russian plan: stabilize front lines, dig in, use foreign agents to slow down Western support + get West to push for a peace deal that Putin can proclaim as a victory.

Time is on the Ukrainian side. Retake Kherson and cut water to Crimea again, let all the rats run away across that bridge the Ukranians have graciously not blown up.

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Are none of you people concerned that Putin and Lavrov have been raising nuclear threats so often lately, and casually discussing nuking or invading others, that officials are no longer taking him too seriously anymore? People are under such an impression it's just barking now that countries have prepared to join NATO and/or reinforce their defenses against Putin's threats.

They don't seem to give a shit for the fact he might get angry anymore.

No, because nuking Ukraine will result in fallout in Russia; there is no real strategic target that would change the course of the war worthy of a nuke; dropping a nuke on Kyiv in an attempt to force a surrender is both a sign of weakness and will have Russia truly cut off from the rest of the world; nuking NATO will result in the destruction of Russia and the world

[PhaelixWW]

Are none of you people concerned that Putin and Lavrov have been raising nuclear threats so often lately, and casually discussing nuking or invading others, that officials are no longer taking him too seriously anymore? People are under such an impression it's just barking now that countries have prepared to join NATO and/or reinforce their defenses against Putin's threats.

They don't seem to give a shit for the fact he might get angry anymore.

No, the adults in the room realize that even fascist dictators don't decide to end the world just because they're "angry"...

...that's just your tendency to hyperbolize everything.

[YUPPIE]

is no one going to mention this damn food blockade Russia has imposed on the world?

That should warrant more attention and action than just sending Ukraine military aid.

[PhaelixWW]

is no one going to mention this damn food blockade Russia has imposed on the world?

That should warrant more attention and action than just sending Ukraine military aid.

You think world war would solve that issue?

Oh, wait, what am I thinking... of course you do.

[KrayZ33]

Russia is a paper tiger today, as it turns out, but they have potential to grow. If they re-structure and upgrade their army within next 20/30 years, they will start posing a threat again. So Finland and Sweden joining NATO isn't about the immediate future.

Meh, I doubt they have the potential to be anything else than what they are right now (which is still dangerous)
Putin didn't manage to change anything in his 20 years either.

Look at how horrible Georgia went for them in 2008 and now look at what happened in Ukraine. And it's only getting worse with all the sanctions.

If they can grow, they can only do so with a completely different mindset... at that point, they might not even be a threat anymore for different reasons.

[Yunru]

is no one going to mention this damn food blockade Russia has imposed on the world?

That should warrant more attention and action than just sending Ukraine military aid.

Oh dont worry Yuppie. We gona get nuked by Putin soon from what soldiers said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXlOEWxH1U0
So food is not the priority right now.

[YUPPIE]

You think world war would solve that issue?

at this point, it's a question of how much longer can Russia keep the world hostage/threatening it until it's decided enough is enough?

I thought that, so long as they kept their depraved warmongering limited in Ukraine, the world would take a hands off approach. But now they're imposing a food blockade and threatening to invade other countries. That's not limited to Ukraine anymore, that's a world-class threat.

[YUPPIE]

Why lie? You’ve been actively cheering on the prospect of escalation..

I mean shit has definitely escalated this month that is for sure. People thought Russia just wanted Ukraine and laughed at the idea they want to conquer all of Europe. Well now look at them as of last month. They haven't done anything yet, but threatening everyone, notably Sweden and Finland, and making declarations of invasions on other "dissenter" nations is a world-class threat that can't just be ignored.

[PhaelixWW]

I mean shit has definitely escalated this month that is for sure. People thought Russia just wanted Ukraine and laughed at the idea they want to conquer all of Europe.

Narrator: They still laugh at the idea.

Well now look at them as of last month. They haven't done anything yet, but threatening everyone, notably Sweden and Finland, and making declarations of invasions on other "dissenter" nations...

Narrator: Russia has not made "declarations of invasions" on other nations.

...is a world-class threat that can't just be ignored.

So feel free to go stop them. I hear that people are going over to Ukraine to join their foreign legion.

That's what you wanted, isn't it?

[YUPPIE]

I truly don't think there's any means to necessarily stop Russia and what's set in motion.

1) They have China supporting (albeit discreetly) their war machine and failing economy contrary to what people believe. People are optimistic Russia is going to eventually bleed out in resources and manpower, but it's misplaced. The aid China is giving to Russia might not be bottomless, but it can be enough to help them win the war of attrition.

2) They always have the nuclear option, which presents a complicated issue of Ukraine never actually being able to mobilize an offensive against Russia. Because fuck knows what Putin will do when he's *cornered* with no way out. And when you can't go in to strike at the heart of the enemy in an all-out war, then how do you win? Yes, Russia is throwing every little man into the meat grinder, but through the zerg rush tactic, they are steadily advancing into Kyiv. They took the Azovstal plant like this recently.

[Poopymonster]

I truly don't think there's any means to necessarily stop Russia and what's set in motion.

1) They have China supporting (albeit discreetly) their war machine and failing economy contrary to what people believe. People are optimistic Russia is going to eventually bleed out in resources and manpower, but it's misplaced. The aid China is giving to Russia might not be bottomless, but it can be enough to help them win the war of attrition.

2) They always have the nuclear option, which presents a complicated issue of Ukraine never actually being able to mobilize an offensive against Russia. Because fuck knows what Putin will do when he's *cornered* with no way out. And when you can't go in to strike at the heart of the enemy in an all-out war, then how do you win? Yes, Russia is throwing every little man into the meat grinder, but through the zerg rush tactic, they are steadily advancing into Kyiv. They took the Azovstal plant like this recently.

If it's inevitable that there is nothing to do about it, why prattle on the IT'S HABBENING? Y U NO STAHP IT! I TOL U!
Honestly, if it's such a done deal, kiss your loved ones, make peace with those who you wish to, spurn those that you don't, and be ready. I mean, we're all gonna die from a nuke, prattling on about it does no good if it has to happen. So why whinge? If there is an afterlife, I'll take as many "I told you so" as you want to give. I'm sure the sound will travel very very fast considering how hot it'll be down there.

[PhaelixWW]

I truly don't think there's any means to necessarily stop Russia and what's set in motion.

That's because you lack critical reasoning skills and have a tendency to hyperbolize everything.

We're aware.

1) They have China supporting...

Nope.

2) They always have the nuclear option, which presents a complicated issue of Ukraine never actually being able to mobilize an offensive against Russia. Because fuck knows what Putin will do when he's *cornered* with no way out.

Putin will never be "cornered" by Ukraine. Only a fool would think that Ukraine would invade Russia.

And when you can't go in to strike at the heart of the enemy in an all-out war, then how do you win? Yes, Russia is throwing every little man into the meat grinder

Nope. This isn't all-out war, that's just your tendency to hyperbolize everything.

...through the zerg rush tactic, they are steadily advancing into Kyiv. They took the Azovstal plant like this recently.

Are you mental? Russia lost thousands of troops and took months to finally take a single steelworks plant in an area they already had surrounded.

They are absolutely not "steadily advancing into Kyiv".

Why are you pushing Russian propaganda, YUP? Are you one of Putin's tools?

[YUPPIE]

No, not Ukraine advancing *into* Russia. Just advancing far enough to kick every Russian out, including those in Crimea. If it looks like they're going to retake Crimea like Zelenksy hopes, Putin will lose his marbles.

[PhaelixWW]

No, not Ukraine advancing *into* Russia. Just advancing far enough to kick every Russian out, including those in Crimea. If it looks like they're going to retake Crimea like Zelenksy hopes, Putin will lose his marbles.

No he won't... that's just your tendency to hyperbolize everything.

And Putin getting upset isn't the same thing as "cornered with no way out".

You're living in fantasyland again. What did we say about that?

[Kallisto]

No, not Ukraine advancing *into* Russia. Just advancing far enough to kick every Russian out, including those in Crimea. If it looks like they're going to retake Crimea like Zelenksy hopes, Putin will lose his marbles.

Zelensky has pretty much ruled out going into Crimea as it would be logistically insane due to how well defended it is and how much a bottleneck the peninsular is at its narrowest.

[YUPPIE]

Zelensky has pretty much ruled out going into Crimea as it would be logistically insane due to how well defended it is and how much a bottleneck the peninsular is at its narrowest.

then how come in recent speeches he proclaims liberating all of Ukraine

[Cynep]

Another song. You know by now whose fanboy I'm RPing, but really it's because they write songs relevant in this thread. It's amazing how all songs I posted here are written in a way that can be interpreted positively by (trigger warning) both sides. This video has numerous comments from Russians saying "I'm an orc and I like this song."

In 43 seconds and 10 lines the song manages to hint at the invasion while covering two cultural moments: first, Russian acceptance of the "Mordor" identity that they feel they're portrayed as by West; BTW I saw Russians call USA "elves" at least a few years ago, it predates current invasion, and probably Ukrainians just used it. Second is well-known Russian meme "[We'll nuke] entire world to dust. But later."

Orcs went out of Mordor
on the last dawn <== don't let YUPPIE notice these words, lol
They sang songs together
those battle orcs
About fate and about foreign land
and about mother at home
and about the orcish club [weapon, not social club]
to kill elves with
Entire world to dust
the rest, f*k it
Entire world, and to dust
the rest, f*k it

[XDurionX]

Second is well-known Russian meme "[We'll nuke] entire world to dust. But later."

Sssht, Yuppie is listening.