Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

But will they keep holding them?

The separatists have held that land since 2014, so... it's not an unreasonable assumption.

The problem with proclaiming you have the land bridge and calling it a day is that Ukraine has no intention of being ok with that and the war will continue until Ukraine has reclaimed those territories.

I don't think anybody expects Russia to just "call it a day" if they solidify control of the land bridge, though.

Regardless, I don't think Russia has the means to pursue their goal for as long as Ukrainians can defend against it.

[Gorsameth]

The separatists have held that land since 2014, so... it's not an unreasonable assumption.



I don't think anybody expects Russia to just "call it a day" if they solidify control of the land bridge, though.

Regardless, I don't think Russia has the means to pursue their goal for as long as Ukrainians can defend against it.

I think its silly to pretend the current fighting is relatable to the pre-war skirmishes.
Or do you think the separatists are a competent army then Russia?

Ukraine was going easy for years, because they didn't want to give Russia an excuse to invade (they did anyway) and because they were not getting flooded with Western weapons.

I don't see how you can say "they held it since 2014, surely they will hold it now" with a strait face.

[Makabreska]

Welp, entire event was uneventful. No breakthroughs, what was expected to be said was said.

Meanwhile in Poland, Russian diplomats got paint to the face while trying to pay honours at Red Army monument:

[Vegas82]

Welp, entire event was uneventful. No breakthroughs, what was expected to be said was said.

Meanwhile in Poland, Russian diplomats got paint to the face while trying to pay honours at Red Army monument:

The video of it is kinda spectacular. Almost looks like he got a face full of blood.

[Saradain]

Meanwhile an anecdote in Turku, Finland - went past a heavily vandalized russian consulate roadsign with a note: "9th of May 2022, we grieve the victims of war at 15:00".

Couldn't find out which side of the war they grieve, their own orcs...or ukrainians.

[Flarelaine]

It is really simple and as I mentioned before like umpteenth times.

1) Crimea goes to Russia.
2) "Republics" stay up in the air like before the war.
3) Some sort of reparations for sanctions relief scheme.

That would probably be best case scenario for Ukraine in the next several years, because it would mean Russia would clear off Mariupol and Kherson areas.

That's back to square one if you do not count half of Ukraine having gotten wrecked in the meantime.

[Corvus]

Air display at the parade was cancelled. Apparently due to the weather though they have still done flyovers with worse weather before.

Also, 3 Armata's were scheduled to take part in the parade, and 3 were seen in practice. However only 2 made it to the parade.

[Arrashi]

Welp, entire event was uneventful. No breakthroughs, what was expected to be said was said.

Meanwhile in Poland, Russian diplomats got paint to the face while trying to pay honours at Red Army monument:

Saw that on live, one of guys who tried to defend him got punched in face. Police seemed confused and...not patricularly willing to try to hard.

[Gaidax]

That's back to square one if you do not count half of Ukraine having gotten wrecked in the meantime.

That's all Ukraine can realistically get for next 2-3 years, until sanctions take effect and public "Z" fever in Russia subsides in face of mounting day-to-day troubles.

[ldev]

Saw that on live, one of guys who tried to defend him got punched in face. Police seemed confused and...not patricularly willing to try to hard.

Yea, shame we couldn't do this in my country as orc ambassador was sent back to orcland last month, probably took some iphones with him before he left.

[Huehuecoyotl]

That's all Ukraine can realistically get for next 2-3 years, until sanctions take effect and public "Z" fever in Russia subsides in face of mounting day-to-day troubles.

That's all that Ukraine can "realistically" get if you choose to ignore the enormous levels of sanctions being levelled at Russia as we speak. And if you choose to ignore that those will stay in place if Russia remains rigid in any attempted peace talks. And if you believe that those sanctions won't have any impact for "2-3 years".

Ironic that you talk about realism while ignoring a whole bunch of facts that are inconvenient for the narrative you're trying to paint.

[ldev]

After months and months of bigger protests East Germanys government finally gave up. This happened all over the eastern bloc. It can happen again in ruSSia, just a question of how many Russians actually start asking themselves

LOL. Yea, right. Westerners still don't understand the species of ruski. Keep on dreaming.

And your example about eastern bloc... Jesus christ, my parents stood against russian tanks - because we're europeans, we didn't want to be like russians, we saw how fucking stupid and poor russian way of life is. We wanted to be like the western countries.
Russians want to be russians. Hello? Ivan is a putin's bitch, Ivan's father was gorbachev's bitch, Ivan's grandfather was brezhnev's bitch, Ivan's great grandfather was Stalin's bitch and so on. I'm not joking, russians have the desire to be slaves in their DNA by this point. They need someone with a stick to tell them what to think. And if something's bad - they just shrug and go "what can you do" or find someone else to blame.
Eastern bloc succeeded because they had memories of freedom. Can't have memories or understanding when you and your father and so on are someone else's bitches. Come on.

Hilarious, westerners assume russians are humans like them. Good luck mate. You have no idea what brainwashing and oppression for entire generations do. They can't even imagine they can be free, what would they do if you gave them freedom? They would fucking elect putin #2 again in 10 years tops

Eastern bloc countries knew what freedom is, they desired freedom, come on. Ordinary russian doesn't understand freedom or want it, come on. Seriously. The thought of applying easter bloc ways to russia is so mind-bogglingly stupid I'm never opening politics subforum again.

[Gaidax]

That's all that Ukraine can "realistically" get if you choose to ignore the enormous levels of sanctions being levelled at Russia as we speak. And if you choose to ignore that those will stay in place if Russia remains rigid in any attempted peace talks. And if you believe that those sanctions won't have any impact for "2-3 years".

Ironic that you talk about realism while ignoring a whole bunch of facts that are inconvenient for the narrative you're trying to paint.

Tell that to Putin.

He is fully ready to handle it for said 2-3 years.

As I said, these sanctions will need time to work. That's the key reason to say what I say. Russia is not going to collapse in 3 months over this.

3 years is another story.

[Arrashi]

So apparently ruskie ambassador in Poland got sprayed with paint by some Ukrainian journalist.

Seriously what did he expect in capital of country that accepted almost 2 milions of Ukrainians? That they will welcome him with flowers?

[Verdugo]

Seriously what did he expect in capital of country that accepted almost 2 milions of Ukrainians? That they will welcome him with flowers?

Wouldnt be surprised if he did.

[Makabreska]

So apparently ruskie ambassador in Poland got sprayed with paint by some Ukrainian journalist.

Seriously what did he expect in capital of country that accepted almost 2 milions of Ukrainians? That they will welcome him with flowers?

Unfortunately, I can already see a retaliation actions. Just like when few years ago Polish diplomats in Russia got "suddenly" mugged after their counterparts suffered some petty attacks. Russia is a state of mind.

Wouldn't be surprised if all this "paying honours" thing was a provocation to show how prosecuted poor ruskies are.

[Yunru]

So apparently ruskie ambassador in Poland got sprayed with paint by some Ukrainian journalist.

Seriously what did he expect in capital of country that accepted almost 2 milions of Ukrainians? That they will welcome him with flowers?

You will probaly find this interesting:


Russans are stealing guns from each other now.

[Gorsameth]

Tell that to Putin.

He is fully ready to handle it for said 2-3 years.

As I said, these sanctions will need time to work. That's the key reason to say what I say. Russia is not going to collapse in 3 months over this.

3 years is another story.

It doesn't matter what Putin is ready to handle. The army is depleting, no advances are being made by the Russians, Ukraine is pushing them back from Kharkiv and they are still losing material faster then they can hope to replace it.
They are throwing anti ship missiles because they've run out of other missiles.

This war will not be decided by what Putin is or is not willing to do. The armies actually fighting in the field cannot keep this up and no amount of mobilization can change that because more bodies doesn't mean more material.

[Finlandia WOAT]

That's all Ukraine can realistically get for next 2-3 years, until sanctions take effect and public "Z" fever in Russia subsides in face of mounting day-to-day troubles.

Ukraine is about to get a bunch of heavy artillery that outranges Russian artillery. They're three months away from the initial fielding of hundreds of thousands of 6 month fresh recruits, while Russia is scrapping the bottom of the proverbial barrel for manpower in lieu of some form of mobilization.

Time is on UAF's side, in the short term, especially so since it seems Putin didn't even engage a partial mobilization. If in 6 months UAF still hasn't engaged a successful offensive, then yeah I'd think you see something like the wet noodle of a cease fire you're proposing.

[Mihalik]

This war will not be decided by what Putin is or is not willing to do. The armies actually fighting in the field cannot keep this up and no amount of mobilization can change that because more bodies doesn't mean more material.

While it's likely that the Russians will eventually run out of things like cruise missiles and guided munitions, also things like drones, optics, radios, GPS' (stuff they just can't make domestically anyway and have always been buying from the West and some extent China) they still have plenty of plain old cannons, dumb missile launchers, shitty armor, ancient Soviet surplus like ancient AKs and Mosins.

The Yugoslav Wars went on for 10 fucking years with a virtually total arms embargo, just using domestically produced shit and existing stocks and very limited imports from the third world.

The Russians could keep this going for years. Dig in and just turn it into an artillery war, with fewer but constant strikes on infrastructure and population centers to prevent Ukraine from returning to normalcy. All the while constantly threatening the rest of the world with nuclear annihilation.

It would be stupid, wasteful, bloody and petty, but I'd argue that those 4 words describe the Russians pretty accurately.

Because I honestly don't see what the fuck is their endgame here.

It should be obvious as shit even in the most delusional circles of the Kremlin that 1, they are not fucking doing regime change 2, what they have now is pretty much what they'll be getting and if anything the longer this goes on the more they might end up losing.

All this in the context of the ongoing economic and political isolation of the country. Like what the fuck is the plan Vlad?