Russian invasion of Ukraine

[zealo]

Neither is NATO tbh. Turkey has shown that plenty of times along the years.

NATO has never really been about democracy as such, but the west presenting a unified front against the east block with the USSR, and then Russia after it. Turkey's been in NATO since the 1950s, and even back during the cold war they weren't all peachy in that regard with military coups about once per decade as islamists came into power.

[Gaidax]

Eeehh...yes and no, it's still a time honoured habit of blaming the previous guy in russia. putin might escape it due to popularity but that's easily deconstructed.

Ditto and likely scenario.

Except for current popularity not mattering much if Russia would need to put up operation scapegoat, something many in West would be too happy to jump on to oblige. "Look that guy did this all, we're all nice and pure as early morning snow".

[jonnysensible]

Got anything on that or just hearsay? Not saying I don't believe you as we've all seen Bucha but without a link to an article it's hard to verify.

Russian propaganda account on telegram posting them saying 'deserters executed by the Ukrainians'

but they are all half dressed with tattoos showing and we know Russians tell Ukrainian POWs to undress and show their tattoos first thing after capture.

So 1+1=2

[Iphie]

Ditto and likely scenario.

Except for current popularity not mattering much if Russia would need to put up operation scapegoat, something many in West would be too happy to jump on to oblige. "Look that guy did this all, we're all nice and pure as early morning snow".

While we won't normalize relations with russia for the foreseeable future regardless of who is in charge I'm pretty confident that you are quite right that we would be more than willing to put the blame on putin if the russians give us the opportunity.

Russian propaganda account on telegram posting them saying 'deserters executed by the Ukrainians'

but they are all half dressed with tattoos showing and we know Russians tell Ukrainian POWs to undress and show their tattoos first thing after capture.

So 1+1=2

So nothing conclusively verified by the Ukrainians then? I mean I would put more stock in that than in a russian propaganda account, regardless of what they say.

[Shalcker]

If Russia was blockading or controlling all the ports, then how would escorting warships would even be able to pass through without starting a WWIII?

NATO ships cannot even enter Black Sea for the same reason any additional Russian ones cannot during war - Montreux Convention.

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Russia's Duma abolishes the age limit for contract soldiers in the armed forces, allowing men over 40 (and under 18) to now serve

Sending a bunch of 14 year olds and 70 year olds isn't going to solve the manpower problems lads.

You see, Russian military can retire with full pension after 20 years of service.

Given that men could be drafted at 18, 40+ are "just retired" military with a lot of experience.

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And on another note on "US not allowing Russia to pay debt in dollars"... next "dollar-only" payment is due at 24 June, then there will be one month grace period, so there are two months to make alternative arrangements (already announced) before any kind of default can happen.

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In other financial news today after Rouble recently hit 56 roubles per dollar Central Bank of Russia dropped key rate by 3% to 11% - just 1% above pre-"special operation" level.

Limited return of operations by foreigners on Russian market was announced for the end of June, and capital controls keep getting weakened (less mandatory sales by exporters, higher allowed withdrawal levels for individuals).

Fuel prices are dropping in Russia https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/R...soline_prices/
(compare and contrast with US and UK).

- - - Updated - - -

On a gas front...

Qatar says new gas from Qatar will come no sooner then 2026; they might get some from their US LNG venture where they have 70% stake in 2024.

But... so far they want 20 year contract and oil price linking (something which EU fought hard against with GazProm and only recently "won" in getting higher spot price weighting).

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/qa...130838959.html

---

Qatar Limited in Supplying LNG to Germany With Output Maxed Out

Germany’s efforts to secure more natural gas from Qatar yielded only modest results, with the Persian Gulf energy giant unable to offer any extra flows for another two years as output is already at full tilt.

Qatar said liquefied natural gas could be sent to Germany from a new US plant it has a stake in, from 2024. An expansion project at home won’t begin operations until at least 2026, later than expected.
...

“We aim to have our LNG plant Golden Pass in Texas, 70% of which are owned by Qatar Energy, ready by 2024 so that we can deliver to Germany,” Deputy Premier Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani told Handelsblatt newspaper.

But there have been differences between the two sides on the terms, a person familiar with the discussions said. German companies are reluctant to commit to buy LNG over 20 years or more because of the country’s goal of cutting carbon emissions by 88% by 2040, said the person.

---

[Makabreska]

Aw shit here we go again!

[Belize]

Aw shit here we go again!

Someone's working overtime to catch up it looks like.

Bro isn't even waiting to respond to other comments.

[Makabreska]

Someone's working overtime to catch up it looks like.

Bro isn't even waiting to respond to other comments.

He checks this place daily, he has everything ready for the unban. This just shows he is a paid "elf".

[Corvus]

The US now looks likely to approve long range rocket artillery systems to Ukraine. Lavrov is already whining.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/26/p...lrs/index.html

MRLS and HIMARS will really do a number on the Russian fascists.

- - - Updated - - -

More from various US officials.

They expect minimal impact on the US and global economy when Russia defaults - well, except for Russia of course.

They belief Russia has lost 1000 tanks, three dozen fighter-bombers and at leat 50 helicopters so far. Thats about 25% above Oryx's confirmed losses. And that may even be conservative. Russia is taking brutal losses, so its no wonder the obsolete T62Ms are being sent to the front.

Russia has fired more missiles in a war than anyone since WW2 - but they are performing badly. Actually the whole air campaign is performing badly, as the article goes over, but its missiles really are failing. Twenty to thirty percent are failing at launch or in flight, 20% fail to fuse properly if they even arrive, and another 20-30% just miss their target. US officials say the success rate is below 40%.

[Logwyn]

NATO ships cannot even enter Black Sea for the same reason any additional Russian ones cannot during war - Montreux Convention.

And then again they are planning to do just that.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/202.../okep-m24.html

[Shalcker]

And then again they are planning to do just that.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/202.../okep-m24.html

That decision is on Turkey, not UK or Lithuania, and your article doesn't show they would agree.

And the problem is also that Ukraine after making every effort to prevent Russian naval landing in Odessa blocked their own port.

- - - Updated - - -

Some more realistic pictures of Ukrainian morale start to seep into Western media

WaPo: Ukrainian volunteer fighters in the east feel abandoned

DRUZHKIVKA, Ukraine — Stuck in their trenches, the Ukrainian volunteers lived off a potato per day as Russian forces pounded them with artillery and Grad rockets on a key eastern front line. Outnumbered, untrained and clutching only light weapons, the men prayed for the barrage to end — and for their own tanks to stop targeting the Russians.

...

The volunteers were civilians before Russia invaded on Feb. 24, and they never expected to be dispatched to one of the most dangerous front lines in eastern Ukraine. They quickly found themselves in the crosshairs of war, feeling abandoned by their military superiors and struggling to survive.

“Our command takes no responsibility,” Lapko said. “They only take credit for our achievements. They give us no support.”

When they could take it no longer, Lapko and his top lieutenant, Vitaliy Khrus, retreated with members of their company this week to a hotel away from the front. There, both men spoke to The Washington Post on the record, knowing they could face a court-martial and time in military prison.

...

Lapko and Khrus’s concerns were echoed recently by a platoon of the 115th Brigade 3rd Battalion, based nearby in the besieged city of Severodonetsk. In a video uploaded to Telegram on May 24, and confirmed as authentic by an aide to Haidai, volunteers said they will no longer fight because they lacked proper weapons, rear support and military leadership.

“We are being sent to certain death,” said a volunteer, reading from a prepared script, adding that a similar video was filmed by members of the 115th Brigade 1st Battalion. “We are not alone like this, we are many.”

...

Lapko, built like a wrestler, was made a company commander in the 5th Separate Rifle Battalion, in charge of 120 men. The similarly burly Khrus became a platoon commander under Lapko. All of their comrades were from western Ukraine. They were handed AK-47 rifles and given training that lasted less than a half-hour.

“We shot 30 bullets and then they said, ‘You can’t get more; too expensive,’ ” Lapko said.

They were given orders to head to the western city of Lviv. When they got there, they were ordered to go south and then east into Luhansk province in Donbas, portions of which were already under the control of Moscow-backed separatists and are now occupied by Russian forces. A couple dozen of his men refused to fight, Lapko said, and they were imprisoned.

...
“When we were coming here, we were told that we were going to be in the third line on defense,” Lapko said. “Instead, we came to the zero line, the front line. We didn’t know where we were going.”

...
It’s a miracle the Russians haven’t pushed through their defensive line in Toshkivka, Khrus said as Lapko nodded. Besides their rifles and hand grenades, the only weapons they were given were a handful of rocket-propelled grenades to counter the well-equipped Russian forces. And no one showed Lapko’s men how to use the RPGs.

...
Behind their positions, Ukrainian forces have tanks, artillery and mortars to back Lapko’s men and other units along the front. But when the tanks or mortars are fired, the Russians respond with Grad rockets, often in areas where Lapko’s men are taking cover. In some cases, his troops have found themselves with no artillery support.

This is, in part, because Lapko has not been provided a radio, he said. So there’s no contact with his superiors in Lysychansk, preventing him from calling for help.

...

“On Ukrainian TV we see that there are no losses,” Lapko said. “There’s no truth.”

Most deaths, he added, were because injured soldiers were not evacuated quickly enough, often waiting as long as 12 hours for transport to a military hospital in Lysychansk, 15 miles away. Sometimes, the men have to carry an injured soldier on a stretcher as far as two miles on foot to find a vehicle, Lapko said. Two vehicles assigned to his company never arrived, he said, and are being used instead by people at military headquarters.

[Specialka]

That decision is on Turkey, not UK or Lithuania, and your article doesn't show they would agree.

And the problem is also that Ukraine after making every effort to prevent Russian naval landing in Odessa blocked their own port.

- - - Updated - - -

Some more realistic pictures of Ukrainian morale start to seep into Western media

WaPo: Ukrainian volunteer fighters in the east feel abandoned

DRUZHKIVKA, Ukraine — Stuck in their trenches, the Ukrainian volunteers lived off a potato per day as Russian forces pounded them with artillery and Grad rockets on a key eastern front line. Outnumbered, untrained and clutching only light weapons, the men prayed for the barrage to end — and for their own tanks to stop targeting the Russians.

...

The volunteers were civilians before Russia invaded on Feb. 24, and they never expected to be dispatched to one of the most dangerous front lines in eastern Ukraine. They quickly found themselves in the crosshairs of war, feeling abandoned by their military superiors and struggling to survive.

“Our command takes no responsibility,” Lapko said. “They only take credit for our achievements. They give us no support.”

When they could take it no longer, Lapko and his top lieutenant, Vitaliy Khrus, retreated with members of their company this week to a hotel away from the front. There, both men spoke to The Washington Post on the record, knowing they could face a court-martial and time in military prison.

...

Lapko and Khrus’s concerns were echoed recently by a platoon of the 115th Brigade 3rd Battalion, based nearby in the besieged city of Severodonetsk. In a video uploaded to Telegram on May 24, and confirmed as authentic by an aide to Haidai, volunteers said they will no longer fight because they lacked proper weapons, rear support and military leadership.

“We are being sent to certain death,” said a volunteer, reading from a prepared script, adding that a similar video was filmed by members of the 115th Brigade 1st Battalion. “We are not alone like this, we are many.”

...

Lapko, built like a wrestler, was made a company commander in the 5th Separate Rifle Battalion, in charge of 120 men. The similarly burly Khrus became a platoon commander under Lapko. All of their comrades were from western Ukraine. They were handed AK-47 rifles and given training that lasted less than a half-hour.

“We shot 30 bullets and then they said, ‘You can’t get more; too expensive,’ ” Lapko said.

They were given orders to head to the western city of Lviv. When they got there, they were ordered to go south and then east into Luhansk province in Donbas, portions of which were already under the control of Moscow-backed separatists and are now occupied by Russian forces. A couple dozen of his men refused to fight, Lapko said, and they were imprisoned.

...
“When we were coming here, we were told that we were going to be in the third line on defense,” Lapko said. “Instead, we came to the zero line, the front line. We didn’t know where we were going.”

...
It’s a miracle the Russians haven’t pushed through their defensive line in Toshkivka, Khrus said as Lapko nodded. Besides their rifles and hand grenades, the only weapons they were given were a handful of rocket-propelled grenades to counter the well-equipped Russian forces. And no one showed Lapko’s men how to use the RPGs.

...
Behind their positions, Ukrainian forces have tanks, artillery and mortars to back Lapko’s men and other units along the front. But when the tanks or mortars are fired, the Russians respond with Grad rockets, often in areas where Lapko’s men are taking cover. In some cases, his troops have found themselves with no artillery support.

This is, in part, because Lapko has not been provided a radio, he said. So there’s no contact with his superiors in Lysychansk, preventing him from calling for help.

...

“On Ukrainian TV we see that there are no losses,” Lapko said. “There’s no truth.”

Most deaths, he added, were because injured soldiers were not evacuated quickly enough, often waiting as long as 12 hours for transport to a military hospital in Lysychansk, 15 miles away. Sometimes, the men have to carry an injured soldier on a stretcher as far as two miles on foot to find a vehicle, Lapko said. Two vehicles assigned to his company never arrived, he said, and are being used instead by people at military headquarters.

Would be curious to have the same article but for russian side but would probably only get propaganda.

[Dontrike]

Would be curious to have the same article but for russian side but would probably only get propaganda.

We know the morale in Russia. Soldiers shoot themselves, others, and commanders, sabotage their equipment and rides just so they don't have to go to the front lines.

[MCMLXXXII]

And do not forget that even if Ukrainians are losing morale, Putin himself is responsible for pro-Russians in the Donbas area are actually turning their backs to Mother Russia because of the constant shelling of civilians.

Putin's goals:

- Stop NATO expansion
Didn't work well

- Kill nazis
Did very good on that one, both Azov battalion and Wagner got plenty of casualties

- Get cheered on as the great liberators
Nope

[Masark]

Apparently some geniuses are using sacks of ammonium nitrate as sandbags.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/sta...84276181733393

[Gabriel]

Apparently some geniuses are using sacks of ammonium nitrate as sandbags.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/sta...84276181733393

Year ago I would have called it fake, but I'm smarter now.

[PhaelixWW]

Apparently some geniuses are using sacks of ammonium nitrate as sandbags.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/sta...84276181733393

A week late with this one.

[zealo]

Apparently some geniuses are using sacks of ammonium nitrate as sandbags.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/sta...84276181733393

Complete morons, the whole lot of them.

[Specialka]

Complete morons, the whole lot of them.

It is completely fine.

As long as no one is shooting at it.

Wait...

[Shalcker]

Would be curious to have the same article but for russian side but would probably only get propaganda.

You could check Meduza, them being currently banned in Russia and all.

Something like
We have no idea who we’re fighting for’ - How Russia threatens contract soldiers who refuse to fight in Ukraine

or

‘Chaos like we’ve never seen before’ An interview with Valentina Melnikova, who helps soldiers and their relatives navigate Russia's military bureaucracy