Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Easo]

As per latest sattelite photos the buildup continues... Putin also vomited something like "Russophobia is the first step towards genocide and we all know what is happening in Donbas, but let's proceed carefully and think"

I think it's just copium statement.

Like I'm most certainly not a lover of Russia, but lets look at the facts here - Russia is a major energy supplier for EU and it's not going anywhere on that front. There is no viable way to fill that void that won't lead to tremendous financial and political costs for EU countries and this will stay this way for a foreseeable future.

That's why EU sanctions on Russia will always be very careful and very watered down. Sure politicians will drum it up as "tough unprecedented response" and so on, but they know full well if they go over the line, the costs for them will be too high as well.

That is why Russia can do shit it does and get away with it, whether it's Crimea or all these numerous "people's republics". Nobody will go to war over that and nobody will push actual tough sanctions either, except for US, because they will bite back.

Major, but not the only one. Has to be noted - their actions have ensured that it's a ticking clock as Europe switches to other sources. Good luck selling that gas afterwards, market is saturated. And aside from gas/oil... High tech and consumer stuff in Russia, where does it comes from? Foreign investments? That is what I meant.

While I do firmly believe we shouldn't bow down to Russia's demands on who does and does not enter NATO I'll be quite blunt in saying: Fuck Ukraine joining NATO.

Every single Eastern European country went through many years of hard painful reforms to get the privilege, Ukraine does not in any way deserve it. They are little better then a full blown Mafia state, and even Russia is better then they are!

This is a side point I know but really don't fancy the idea of Ukraine getting a pass on the many horrible things it does as a country just because they are a buffer to Russia.

I guess my and your understanding of Mafia state differs. No one is saying that they should join now anway, they are not ready and due to territorial conflicts cannot be accepted regardless.

West buys more from us then we buy from West, that is a fact.

Sure, you could stop buying gas and enjoy it tripling in price, with immediate impact on price of electricity and heating (in the middle of winter), and later knock-on effects on fertilizer and then food production.

Someday you really will need to step outside your house.

[Flarelaine]

Shalcker with his absolutely non-standard compared-to-average-Russian job is trying to pretend Russians do not prefer Western products, even if they are more expensive.
Lol. People had enough with the Soviet shitware, no one is going back to that unless absolutely necessary (and that is not a good thing, or something to be proud of).

Actually... I grew up around some Soviet products and while they may not have run as smoothly as we expect now, they sure as hell were built to last. Makes sense when you don't expect your consumers to be able to replace stuff every few years. Obsolescence simply wasn't a thing.

[Easo]

Actually... I grew up around some Soviet products and while they may not have run as smoothly as we expect now, they sure as hell were built to last. Makes sense when you don't expect your consumers to be able to replace stuff every few years. Obsolescence simply wasn't a thing.

Doesn't mean they were not shitware. Sure, I have one of the Minsk series refrigerators (IIRC Минск-11) still running at my grandma, but I would never call it good.
One of the reasons ex-Soviet factories collapsed after the fall of USSR was that Western consumer devices were suddenly available outside of half illegal imports/blat system and they simply were better. Best examples probably were the color TV's (black-and-white-only models were widespread in USSR) and sound equipment, not to mention personal PC's and game consoles...
We could continue about other shitware like footwear and clothing in general, but that is kinda outside the topic.

[Shalcker]

As per latest sattelite photos the buildup continues... Putin also vomited something like "Russophobia is the first step towards genocide and we all know what is happening in Donbas, but let's proceed carefully and think"

Troops amassing 250 km away from the border, the horror!

Major, but not the only one. Has to be noted - their actions have ensured that it's a ticking clock as Europe switches to other sources. Good luck selling that gas afterwards, market is saturated.

Saturated from demand side, not from supply side - China buys everything it can at premium. You aren't getting more without investments, and we're having a hand in next Iranian field too.

You're stuck with us as major supplier for next century.

And aside from gas/oil... High tech and consumer stuff in Russia, where does it comes from?

Asia, duh.

Foreign investments? That is what I meant.

Ukraine, unlike Russia, got zero FDI in 2020 despite being "Western ally".

Someday you really will need to step outside your house.

Look at actual gas production and demand curves, and where projected increases come from.

[Gaidax]

Actually... I grew up around some Soviet products and while they may not have run as smoothly as we expect now, they sure as hell were built to last. Makes sense when you don't expect your consumers to be able to replace stuff every few years. Obsolescence simply wasn't a thing.

It mostly has to do with things being quite a bit simpler back in the day.

There is no shortage of old fridges, cars and so on that still chug along. In that sense old Soviet stuff is pretty much same deal - if there is less bullshit in your products - they simply break down less.

But then, you do get a very baseline product there. There are arguments both ways there. Would you rather have a simple frying pan that lasts 50 years or frying pan that does not require oil thanks to some fancy coating but can only last 5-10. Same goes for fridges, cars and whatever else we can think of.

You get a smarter, more convenient product, but also more complex which reduces its MTBF.

/shrug

[Milchshake]

Grats to Finland for announcing the purchase of 60 F35 jets. Even though we had a thread here declaring that "the F35 is Potato". Findland still saw value in the fighter aircraft.


I wonder if Putin shit a chicken upon hearing this news.

[Shalcker]

Grats to Finland for announcing the purchase of 60 F35 jets. Even though we had a thread here declaring that "the F35 is Potato". Findland still saw value in the fighter aircraft.

Not sure what it has to do with Ukraine; probably better in a separate thread.

Going to get good data on best ways to see F-35 using Russian radar systems.

[DarkAmbient]

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has rejected Russian demands to rescind a 2008 commitment to Ukraine that the country would one day become a member of the Western military alliance.

[YUPPIE]

im pretty confused at this point. People have said sanctions do nothing to the Kremlin, right? And considering the US has said they won't send troops to defend Ukraine, only food and weapons, what's stopping Putin from invading right now? If it's only the threat of sanctions, he doesn't even need to wave the nuke card. Just do the same as Myanmar then

[Yuujin]

im pretty confused at this point. People have said sanctions do nothing to the Kremlin, right? And considering the US has said they won't send troops to defend Ukraine, only food and weapons, what's stopping Putin from invading right now? If it's only the threat of sanctions, he doesn't even need to wave the nuke card. Just do the same as Myanmar then

Wait, I'm getting a report that... people have said... people who say people have said are just making shit up.

[Shalcker]

im pretty confused at this point. People have said sanctions do nothing to the Kremlin, right? And considering the US has said they won't send troops to defend Ukraine, only food and weapons, what's stopping Putin from invading right now? If it's only the threat of sanctions, he doesn't even need to wave the nuke card. Just do the same as Myanmar then

Putin isn't invading right now for same reason he hasn't invaded in previous years - noone wants to take over Ukraine.

At most they are going to get smacked again if they'll try military solution with Donbass instead of implementing internationally accepted, including by US, Minsk agreement.

[Gaidax]

im pretty confused at this point. People have said sanctions do nothing to the Kremlin, right? And considering the US has said they won't send troops to defend Ukraine, only food and weapons, what's stopping Putin from invading right now? If it's only the threat of sanctions, he doesn't even need to wave the nuke card. Just do the same as Myanmar then

Likely seeking to cut some sort of deal.

It's not like he needs that piece of land there, it's just a pressure mechanism.

[Elenos]

what's stopping Putin from invading right now?

The economic cost of holding Ukraine would be pretty high. Having tens of millions of people to worry about would not be cheap in a post-war country.

[YUPPIE]

The economic cost of holding Ukraine would be pretty high. Having tens of millions of people to worry about would not be cheap in a post-war country.

besides the death toll from an initial invasion, don't these takeovers usually result in complete subjugation and ethnic cleansings? Look at the Taliban and Lukashenko and what they're doing. I wouldn't imagine Putin would be someone to worry for his people as much as murdering to maintain his iron fist rule.

[Yadryonych]

besides the death toll from an initial invasion, don't these takeovers usually result in complete subjugation and ethnic cleansings? Look at the Taliban and Lukashenko and what they're doing. I wouldn't imagine Putin would be someone to worry for his people as much as murdering to maintain his iron fist rule.

It would be annexed only as a desperate measure when everything else is tried. Severe strain of annexation of ungovernable shithole would send the entire nation a decade back

[Easo]

Troops amassing 250 km away from the border, the horror!

Saturated from demand side, not from supply side - China buys everything it can at premium. You aren't getting more without investments, and we're having a hand in next Iranian field too.

You're stuck with us as major supplier for next century.

Asia, duh.

Ukraine, unlike Russia, got zero FDI in 2020 despite being "Western ally".

Look at actual gas production and demand curves, and where projected increases come from.

That's not exactly much, few hour drive, especially since they were not needed before. Unless you are gonna bullshit about NATO invading and poor Russia having to prepare for that.

Ah yes, China are gonna be your lapdogs and just buy your gas at premium prices just because. Genius.

Asia? Tell me - which companies make said stuff in Asia...?

But but buy Ukraiiiiine.... Your propaganda had "predicting" them collapsing since the 2014, yet they still somehow keep trudging on. I also fail to see how any of that has helped the average Russian.

I don't have to look at shit. Better go find a way to stop Russians dying from Covid - partly because your anti-Western antivax propaganda did a boomerang.

[Shalcker]

That's not exactly much, few hour drive, especially since they were not needed before. Unless you are gonna bullshit about NATO invading and poor Russia having to prepare for that.

By this logic we always have hundreds of thousands troops "at a few hours drive" from Ukraine.

Ah yes, China are gonna be your lapdogs and just buy your gas at premium prices just because. Genius.

Because they need it, duh. And because supply disruptions always cause increase in prices.

They are already paying premium over Europe right now.

Gas supplies in the world are finite; Russia is quite big chunk of it.

But but buy Ukraiiiiine.... Your propaganda had "predicting" them collapsing since the 2014, yet they still somehow keep trudging on. I also fail to see how any of that has helped the average Russian.

Your propaganda have been predicting Russian collapse since 1991, yet somehow it keeps trudging on.

[Ulmita]

Apparently the Russians continue the build up of military hardware and personnel. Hundreds of armored vehicles and A/A systems are marching towards the border.


https://avia.pro/news/rossiya-perebr...c-bronetehniki

[caervek]

And considering the US has said they won't send troops to defend Ukraine, only food and weapons, what's stopping Putin from invading right now?

If Putin wanted Ukraine he would have taken it by now, during the Trump presidency was probably the best time. If they had invaded back when Crimea seceded it would would have only taken a couple of weeks for Kiev to fall.

I highly doubt Putin will invade unless the west does something to provoke it, I.E sending their own troops there or starting the process of admitting Ukraine to NATO.

- - - Updated - - -

Apparently the Russians continue the build up of military hardware and personnel. Hundreds of armored vehicles and A/A systems are marching towards the border.


https://avia.pro/news/rossiya-perebr...c-bronetehniki

Do you have an English source?

[Ulmita]

Do you have an English source?

I use Chrome + translate to English