Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Flarelaine]

Yeah, Germany nixing that is huge. Orban, of all people, standing with the West against him is not a good sign for Putin. Myself, I'm a fan of going after the oligarchs' cash and toys.

Orbán is, ultimately, a small fry. I believe the EU could have always twisted his balls off if only there was a will.

[jonnysensible]

looks like the UK is bottling it. very light stuff

[Levelfive]

Orbán is, ultimately, a small fry. I believe the EU could have always twisted his balls off if only there was a will.

Agreed, he's a garden-variety kleptocrat--so precisely the sort Putin could normally rely on to prop him up. Erdogan's condemning him as well.

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Which, if the way the UK has been talking recently is any indication, are also in danger considering London is one of Putain and his cronies' main laundering pipelines.

To say nothing of his more immediate neighbors.

Great link, thank you.

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No I'm not. You claimed that Biden had upended Putin's plans which is demonstrably not true. The whole situation has played out as predicted by Western intelligence and press which given Russia's actions in Crimea it was not all that difficult to see coming.

You are. This is my last attempt at trying to explain this to you. Putin decided a year (years) ago that he would do this. But Putin has a standard m.o. for how he likes to do these things--or he would have just done it already. Biden lifted the veil on Putin's bullshit, refused to take his bait, and made it utterly transparent that this is a war of Putin's choice. That is not how Putin wanted to conduct his invasion of Ukraine, which was already predetermined.

[DarkAmbient]

looks like the UK is bottling it. very light stuff

Absolutely weaksauce set of sanctions. Not surprising though, Boris seems quite reticent to piss the Russians off.

[Gorsameth]

Putler seems to have underestimated the resolve of Europe in the face of his fascism.

He knew the EU wouldn't stop him from annexing another part of Ukraine and he is right.

Anything less then the complete financial and economic isolation of Russia is a failure to respond by the EU. And that is most likely not going to happen.
Oh no, NS2 has been halted for a short time, a project plagued with issues anyway. Pretty sure we will still be buying all the gas Russia can provide.

This mild sanctions are a calculated cost.

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My read on this is that Putin is pretty flustered by being outmaneuvered by Biden, and having miscalculated and backed himself into a corner, is using this as a face-saving measure. He knows the economic pain is coming so he may as well inflict some--he doesn't actually have to absorb Ukraine at this point; the important thing is that he flexed.

The exact plan may have changed slightly but sofar everything is happened as planned. The minor sanctions that will come are a calculated cost and nothing stops Putin from doing this again and again because the West drew a line in the sand and then turned and ran when Putin blatantly stepped over it.

[Levelfive]

He knew the EU wouldn't stop him from annexing another part of Ukraine and he is right.

Anything less then the complete financial and economic isolation of Russia is a failure to respond by the EU. And that is most likely not going to happen.
Oh no, NS2 has been halted for a short time, a project plagued with issues anyway. Pretty sure we will still be buying all the gas Russia can provide.

This mild sanctions are a calculated cost.

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The exact plan may have changed slightly but sofar everything is happened as planned. The minor sanctions that will come are a calculated cost and nothing stops Putin from doing this again and again because the West drew a line in the sand and then turned and ran when Putin blatantly stepped over it.

I disagree on a few points that I've already repeated, but there's nothing minor about losing Nord Stream 2. I agree completely that the West will actually have to make it hurt this time, and I hope they do. I don't think Putin's left them a choice.

[Draco-Onis]

Absolutely weaksauce set of sanctions. Not surprising though, Boris seems quite reticent to piss the Russians off.

After self immolating with Brexit it's doubtful the UK could afford to strong sanctions against anyone.

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Hopefully this will be more incentive to speed up decarbonization, as an added benefit.

Hopefully it will push Germany towards energy independence relying on other countries is bad juju for international relations.

[Gorsameth]

I disagree on a few points that I've already repeated, but there's nothing minor about losing Nord Stream 2. I agree completely that the West will actually have to make it hurt this time, and I hope they do. I don't think Putin's left them a choice.

Oh no, they have delayed certification. Surely its gone forever now...

Seriously, in a year or 2 when the people no longer have 'Russia invades Ukraine' at the front of every news article it will be approved and nothing will have changed.
You want to show me NS2 is gone? Link me that the order to dismantle it has been given.

[jonnysensible]

After self immolating with Brexit it's doubtful the UK could afford to strong sanctions against anyone.

im telling you bring back privateering. If the cops said they would look the other way, id gather up the cowboy builders from the pub go straight to abramovichs 150m mansion in london and strip the place back to the bricks.

Send some landscapers to dig up stamford bridge.

We shoudn't just target russians either, look at the afghans who fled with all the money when the taliban took over and now piss around london in supercars. Or african despots children Isabel dos Santos. Robbing these people shouldn't be a crime.

[ati87]

Yeah, Germany nixing that is huge. Orban, of all people, standing with the West against him is not a good sign for Putin. Myself, I'm a fan of going after the oligarchs' cash and toys.

Because Russia is a shitty ally that really doesn't do you any good and with a few exceptions most countries have a major dislike (to put it mildly) towards Russia.
If Orban tried to get closer to Russia he would defacto start a (political) war he couldn't win, EU doesn't need Hungary while Hungary needs the EU.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Absolutely weaksauce set of sanctions. Not surprising though, Boris seems quite reticent to piss the Russians off.

That happens when a significant chunk of the funding for your political party comes from Russians. Especially when your primary policy (Brexit) was driven by Russia for their benefit.

[jonnysensible]

Oh no, they have delayed certification. Surely its gone forever now...

Seriously, in a year or 2 when the people no longer have 'Russia invades Ukraine' at the front of every news article it will be approved and nothing will have changed.
You want to show me NS2 is gone? Link me that the order to dismantle it has been given.

russians trying to reestablish the soviet union and germans trying to ignore the smell coming from the death camps would be a bit too far on the nose.

[Gorsameth]

russians trying to reestablish the soviet union and germans trying to ignore the smell coming from the death camps would be a bit too far on the nose.

I don't just blame Germany. The entire West has been utter shit in response to this.

[Huehuecoyotl]

im telling you bring back privateering. If the cops said they would look the other way, id gather up the cowboy builders from the pub go straight to abramovichs 150m mansion in london and strip the place back to the bricks.

Send some landscapers to dig up stamford bridge.

We shoudn't just target russians either, look at the afghans who fled with all the money when the taliban took over and now piss around london in supercars. Or african despots children Isabel dos Santos. Robbing these people shouldn't be a crime.

Sounds lovely in theory. In practice, you might want to look at the US to see what happens when you can just take people's money and assets without due process of the law. It doesn't end well.

[jonnysensible]

I don't just blame Germany. The entire West has been utter shit in response to this.

aye thats true londons always been a laundromat of facilitators

Sounds lovely in theory. In practice, you might want to look at the US to see what happens when you can just take people's money and assets without due process of the law. It doesn't end well.

The NCA has the powers to do it with unexplained wealth orders. They could fucking fund themselves.

Companies house is also a fucking joke.

[Levelfive]

Oh no, they have delayed certification. Surely its gone forever now...

Seriously, in a year or 2 when the people no longer have 'Russia invades Ukraine' at the front of every news article it will be approved and nothing will have changed.
You want to show me NS2 is gone? Link me that the order to dismantle it has been given.

Sure, let's revisit it in 2 years. In the meantime, Russia is doing little more than confirm it's dangerous to rely on them. Or live near them. https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...8bdfaa2c901be8

[Ettan]

Cant commit to stop it with military force, but we can make it really hurt.
It will neccecarily also mean we must hurt ourselves.
Some ideas of various intensity on that ;

Full economic sanctions on all russians, not only targeting the top brass.
Seizure of all western based assets held by any and all russian nationals.
Complete western embargo on all imports and russian main exports; oil, gas and grain.

Nordstream 2 has already been scrapped.
The main russian gas artery runs right through ukraine, they can rip that.
Up to europe to destroy nord stream 1 & the land lines running through belarus & poland.

Back to nuclear for europe, short term it must fill its dependency with lng and increased northsea production (forced redirection neccecary, no more lng to china).

Bit more "out there" options;
Have turkey close off the bosphorus, blue stream and the gas west line.
All of europe; no flight zones for russian aircraft.
If breached: do not meet and greet to escort away, rather respond to any form of incursion with live missiles.
Look into feasability & benefits of isolating runet, not block; but physically locking russians out, leaving them with an intra net lan of sorts; only connected to former satelites/ russian friendly regimes.

Impacts; bad, bad bad bad. But still alot worse for Russia so sort of a win, like a lose lose win.

For the positive, irregardless of Putin we where already diving headlong straight into a big economic crash.
So eh might aswell have the pain with more pain and get it over with.
And atleast it has galvinized nato.
That 2% of gdp trump deemed neccecary for nato members to contribute seems alot more plausible now.

Still If it continues to escalate, might want to consider stocking up on some iodine.

[D3thray]

Lemme know when nearly every mainstream media source in the US is either state run or owned by personal friends of the Tsar.

They're not? Why, it's almost as if your analogy is horseshit. Which is hardly surprising because you are still repeating Kremlin talking points.

When was the last time the MSM in the states didn’t just parrot whatever the official government line was regarding foreign affairs? (besides Trump)

[Elegiac]

When was the last time the MSM in the states didn’t just parrot whatever the official government line was regarding foreign affairs? (besides Trump)

Yesterday, considering quite a few mainstream media outlets are repeating the "peacekeeping" line (and being criticised for it) which is distinctly at odds with the official government stance on it being an invasion.

(besides Trump)

"US and Russian media are basically the same which you can tell by how the media in the US didn't follow the line set out by an aspiring autocrat like how they do in Russia with its actual autocrat."

Zzz. Keep your Lugenpresse bullshit to yourself, please.

[bladeXcrasher]

And people were saying that NS2 would never be part of any sanctions....

Nah, they had already pivoted to, "but they'll just trade with China so sanctions are all political theater".

He said to himself, desperately hoping that repeating it enough times will convince the German government not to do anything that might increase his energy bill because that is apparently what's important in a discussion of Ukraine being invaded.

I see we've gone from "NS2 will never be part of a sanctions package" to "well it might for now but it won't last." Waiting for "well it might have lasted but it really didn't matter."

Already happened, see above.