Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Pann]

You are. This is my last attempt at trying to explain this to you. Putin decided a year (years) ago that he would do this. But Putin has a standard m.o. for how he likes to do these things--or he would have just done it already. Biden lifted the veil on Putin's bullshit, refused to take his bait, and made it utterly transparent that this is a war of Putin's choice. That is not how Putin wanted to conduct his invasion of Ukraine, which was already predetermined.

No, I'm not. That is nonsense. Biden has done nothing of the sort, anyone who has access to a television or the internet could see that Russia was planning to invade - do you really think that without Biden's wisdom the rest of the world could not work out what thousands of Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian border was for? - I mean Putin even wrote a 7,000 word essay outlining Russia's imperialist desires on Ukraine.

Seeing as Russia has moved military assets into position and then when ready sent them to invade and it is following the same pattern as the Crimean annexation I am not sure how you worked out that this is not how Putin wanted to conduct this invasion.

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Absolutely weaksauce set of sanctions. Not surprising though, Boris seems quite reticent to piss the Russians off.

Yeah, there seems to be a disconnect between the earlier rhetoric and what has been announced.

[Levelfive]

On sanctions:

https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/...tCp6RI-kWmd8BQ

[Gorsameth]

On sanctions:

https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/...tCp6RI-kWmd8BQ

Its a take I completely disagree with. He is talking that deploying all sanctions now is the opposite of a deterrent but the deterrent was the threat of the sanctions. We are not at the deterrence stage, Putin has already invaded Ukraine. We're at retaliation.

Does anyone seriously think that the threat of more sanctions would get Putin to back off now? Do you think more sanctions would stop his tanks from driving strait to Kiev if he wanted to?
At what point have sanctions shows to have any affect at all on what Putin does?

We'd lose leverage? Leverage over what? He has invaded Ukraine. Blatantly. While talking about restoring the USSR and directly threatening every other former USSR state. Are we going to put on the 'real' sanctions if he invades yet another countries?

What second marshmallow are we promised by not applying full and total financial and economic isolation now?

[Draco-Onis]

im telling you bring back privateering. If the cops said they would look the other way, id gather up the cowboy builders from the pub go straight to abramovichs 150m mansion in london and strip the place back to the bricks.

Send some landscapers to dig up stamford bridge.

We shoudn't just target russians either, look at the afghans who fled with all the money when the taliban took over and now piss around london in supercars. Or african despots children Isabel dos Santos. Robbing these people shouldn't be a crime.

That's kind of my point corrupt or not the UK economy needs that money no matter how dirty.

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When was the last time the MSM in the states didn’t just parrot whatever the official government line was regarding foreign affairs? (besides Trump)

When did the Murdoch empire, Sinclair broadcasting, OAN and the rest of the right wing conglomerates turn against Trump?

[Shalcker]

What second marshmallow are we promised by not applying full and total financial and economic isolation now?

Your get your own population not rebelling under strain.

[Milchshake]

Germany Suspends Nord Stream2. Big move my Germany. And the right thing to do.

In reply, Dmitry Medvedev acts out like a low level enforcer on the Sopranos.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!

Just straight up admitting that the obvious take by everyone, that Russia would use this pipeline as a tool for geo-political extortion, was 100% true.

[Biglog]

Another aspect of the moves yesterday by Russia is the new issue of gas exports that it created for itself. By a fairly wide margin energy exports primarily to the EU is the biggest part of Russia's GDP. As expected, Germany told Russia to stop construction on Nordstream 2 this morning. Between that, sanctions over invading Ukraine, and the fact that in the UN's meetings on it yesterday it became clear how far Russia isolated itself. It was a very short list of countries that were on Russia's side. Even China that was expected to likely be openly supportive to align with ambitions over Taiwan only made a neutral statement. Pakistan and Azerbaijan were about the only supportive countries. And energy is Azerbaijan's #1 export so they aren't going to be a buyer.

Also, if you missed it yesterday it's worth a watch of Putin's speech. The parallels with the speech Hitler gave in August 1939 prior to the invasion of Poland were pretty shocking.

- Complaints about being economically attacked and "kept down" by the West after the ending of a war (Germany - WW1, Russia - Cold War)
- Claims on the land and people of another sovereign country based on culture, language, heritage excuses, saying invasion is "reuniting" and/or "protecting" them
- Claims on the land of another country for historical reasons
- Verbal attacks on the people of the country being invaded as being criminals, less than human, etc. for justification of an invasion

Another parallel was the Gleiwitz incident in 1939 and the flurry of what turned out to be mostly proven as staged false flag videos in the last week. There were at least 2 cases of videos and pictures that had metadata proving they were recorded days earlier and clearly faked. Another one turned out to be a video from a Russian exercise in 2019. And another video was claiming to show a dead body after a Ukrainian attack that upon closer review was a mannequin. So they attempted quite a few of them, but they were very poorly and sloppily done. Overall the comparisons are eerily uncanny.

After the rough couple last years of the world my expectations for 2022 were low. But Russia going full August 1939 Germany was not on my 2022 bingo card. And the apologists for what is happening today with Ukraine simply make the rest of the world more clearly realize today how 1939 happened. There were many people back then that said don't get involved it is their problem, Germany will stop after Poland, or that bought into the propaganda of historical/heritage excuses. Needless to say those people were on the wrong side of history.

[MCMLXXXII]

Good to see almost everyone ignored Shillcker

[Shalcker]

Another aspect of the moves yesterday by Russia is the new issue of gas exports that it created for itself. By a fairly wide margin energy exports primarily to the EU is the biggest part of Russia's GDP.

So many misconceptions here...

No, energy isn't "biggest part of GDP". Only biggest part of exports overall. Services are largest part of GDP like with any modern country.

Russia also maintains trade surplus - that is, it consistently sells more then it buys. Largest Russian export sales are in petroleum, not natural gas.

As expected, Germany told Russia to stop construction on Nordstream 2 this morning.

Come on... Nord Stream 2 have been completed almost a year ago, in April 2021. All they did is pull one of approval documents ("security of supply") for re-evaluation, thus delaying final approval.

Btw, they already paid to companies that invested in the project more then 2 bn in fines for interference; they would have to pay for it in full if they would actually decide to "dismantle" it.

Between that, sanctions over invading Ukraine, and the fact that in the UN's meetings on it yesterday it became clear how far Russia isolated itself. It was a very short list of countries that were on Russia's side. Even China that was expected to likely be openly supportive to align with ambitions over Taiwan only made a neutral statement. Pakistan and Azerbaijan were about the only supportive countries. And energy is Azerbaijan's #1 export so they aren't going to be a buyer.

Everyone is going to be a buyer - or we'll see oil pushing 300$.

[Mihalik]

Russian's aren't even trying with the made up bullshit anymore.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-fake-factory

There was only one problem with the Kremlin’s dramatic account of the incident. It was entirely fake. The soundtrack of shooting and explosions was actually more than a decade old. It had been recorded in April 2010, according to open source researchers, during a Finnish military exercise.

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Everyone is going to be a buyer - or we'll see oil pushing 300$.

Keep telling yourself that cupcake. High fossil fuel prices just make alternate sources more viable and allow them to scale up faster. And that's a permanent shift.

[Deianeira]

You should remember, that there are still no solid proofs, that Russia was involved in this cases. Everything revolves around zero-proof "highly-likelys". It's not even 100% know, if Skripal was really poisoned or his poisoning was staged. Same thing with MH17. There are ways to prove, that eastern Ukraine didn't have any missiles and that no Russian forces were there. Such as satellite pictures. But nobody provides real evidence. May be because they would prove opposite?

But wouldnt that mean that Russia would have satellite images of that are? And they could release those images easily? Or maybe they did?

[Shalcker]

Keep telling yourself that cupcake. High fossil fuel prices just make alternate sources more viable and allow them to scale up faster. And that's a permanent shift.

Great!

Though i don't think you are quite aware of all uses for gas and oil you aren't going to get with "alternatives".

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But wouldnt that mean that Russia would have satellite images of that are? And they could release those images easily? Or maybe they did?

Russia claimed US had spy satellite above right that moment that had capability to detect launch and pinpoint exact location.

US never released them.

As far as i see noone claimed Russia had satellite above at the time.

And Ukraine most definitely had BUKs on active duty around - they were running anti-air exercises same week AND were running active radars for them on a day MH17 was shot down.

[Kokolums]

Germany Suspends Nord Stream2. Big move my Germany. And the right thing to do.

In reply, Dmitry Medvedev acts out like a low level enforcer on the Sopranos.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!

Just straight up admitting that the obvious take by everyone, that Russia would use this pipeline as a tool for geo-political extortion, was 100% true.

how is that a big move?

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this feels like ww2 again, with europe just collapsing while someone rolls in tanks. europe has no will to live.

[Milchshake]

how is that a big move?

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this feels like ww2 again, with europe just collapsing while someone rolls in tanks. europe has no will to live.

Sorry Hon, but your +1 for the coming Civil Wars, is busy with sanctions.


God Bless.

[Ihavewaffles]

Or is Reuters also biased?

Not even going to look at german propaganda, something something 2 groups in conflict only suspect one side, cuz that's how investigating works amirate??

[Kokolums]

Sorry Hon, but your +1 for the coming Civil Wars, is busy with sanctions.


God Bless.

what does that even mean lol

[Belize]

On sanctions:

https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/...tCp6RI-kWmd8BQ

The critical error here is working under the assumption that sanctions are pre-emptive rather than punitive.

Russia has already invaded Ukraine. They made some declaration about parts of another sovereign country wanting to separate and moved in their troops to "help". That's an invasion.

The current wave of sanctions being leveraged is a direct result of current Russian actions, not deterrence for possible future actions.

[Ihavewaffles]

im telling you bring back privateering. If the cops said they would look the other way, id gather up the cowboy builders from the pub go straight to abramovichs 150m mansion in london and strip the place back to the bricks.

Send some landscapers to dig up stamford bridge.

We shoudn't just target russians either, look at the afghans who fled with all the money when the taliban took over and now piss around london in supercars. Or african despots children Isabel dos Santos. Robbing these people shouldn't be a crime.

U don't need privateering when ur government are a bunch of crooks, will u stop stealing Venezuela's gold??

[unfilteredJW]

how is that a big move?

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this feels like ww2 again, with europe just collapsing while someone rolls in tanks. europe has no will to live.

Being wrong about everything has to be taxing.

[Kokolums]

its really amazing how a cop kneels on a black mans neck and we get worldwide protests. Putin rolls tanks into Ukraine and nobody does anything.

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Being wrong about everything has to be taxing.

im not wrong about everything but DAMN no-one believed the west would just bow down and scrape at Putin's feet in response to him taking part of Ukraine. CNN is barely covering the story on its webpage, just calling it a "Ukrainian crisis" and talking about the pipeline. Its so bizzaro.