"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
No, I don't actively follow this thread majorly, I am just not stupid enough to think Russia could nuke a nation and the world stand by and watch knowing the consequences of that action to the surrounding regions and how they have already threatened to do it on others and already released their long term intentions.
If Russia sends a nuke ANYWHERE, it will be on the receiving end of many more in response and Russia knows this, no matter how much water you want to carry for them.
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Public opinions are not hard to manipulate, that's why I said not as long as Putin is a thing.
Putin will go out, someone else come it - make some positive moves, get some stories about how it's totes new approach and thaw - and you get the ball going.
And even if not that. There is still plenty wiggle room to make a deal - like Iran.
Puhlease,
American public attention span is that of a goldfish. In 2 years you have elections and in-between, as well as soon after you will find plenty other controversies and causes to gnaw on.
Don't go turning American public opinion into some sort of a thing, when you have a chunk of country ready to drink bleach or cow dewormer and other chunk thinks US is Avengers or Beacon of Freedom and happiness in the world, because some dude said so. Just to show how easy your unwashed masses are to manipulate.
That's kinda hilarious even.
"Truth...justice, honor, freedom! Vain indulgences, every one(...) I know what I want, and I take it. I take advantage of whatever I can, and discard that which I cannot. There is no room for sentiment or guilt."
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"Life is one long series of problems to solve. The more you solve, the better a man you become.... Tribulations spawn in life and over and over again we must stand our ground and face them."
Hey, it was inject bleach and horse dewormer...
...wait, what was I saying? <glub glub>
...
But seriously, I'm not discounting that the average American's attention span to political drama is... somewhat limited. But that doesn't mean that it's as non-existent as you're pretending. Nor is the situation the same this time; even a casual perusal of headlines can tell you as much.
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
"Truth...justice, honor, freedom! Vain indulgences, every one(...) I know what I want, and I take it. I take advantage of whatever I can, and discard that which I cannot. There is no room for sentiment or guilt."
Likely, but both sides will constantly be looking for an out.
Cold War 2.0 is no-one's interest. Russia is not USSR, it can't quite detach itself from West and West does not really want to go another decade of Soviet-like bullshit either.
It is a given that eventually there will be an agreement.
No, people have, they just don't want to go that route unless they absolutely have to and can justify it because, if you cut the head off the snake, you have to worry about what kinda head grows back to replace it.
Go at him economically, which hits hard but less direct, and a less sneaky alternative to Russia's stuff with Trump, Brexit, and the likes, if push comes to shove and you actually think he will try for the nukes, you take him out personally, just make sure you can justify it to the world and the people of Russia to make sure that whomever tries to replace him doesn't try to do the same.
Like I said, there isn't a man alive who can't be stopped, even if they can't be controlled. Even the uncontrolled have to work within the options they have available to them.
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I have a question that I would like an answer to.
Let's assume for the sake of argument, however unlikely it might be to some of you, that Russia in half a year conquers all of Ukraine.
What do we then with Russia? Specifically what does the west when it comes to sanctions of occupied Ukraine, remember that with Crimea and Donbass there are vast sanctions on their entirety on virtually every aspect, but are we really going to see those kind of sanctions extended to an entire country of 40 million people and condemn them to misery?
"Life is one long series of problems to solve. The more you solve, the better a man you become.... Tribulations spawn in life and over and over again we must stand our ground and face them."
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
It is even difficult to go after him economically or pound him with sanctions considering he is INSANE. For now they're working, yes, but when they eventually add up to cripple him to fuckedville forever, who is to say then he won't just decide "fuck it?" That's why the situation is terrifying.
You say no lunatic in history is unable to be stopped. Putin is the first one with nukes and threatening to use them.
"Truth...justice, honor, freedom! Vain indulgences, every one(...) I know what I want, and I take it. I take advantage of whatever I can, and discard that which I cannot. There is no room for sentiment or guilt."
Oh sorry, gotta recheck Tuck's recommendations on correct consumption of the miracle cure.
For sure people won't go ahead and view Russia favorably in US, but you dismiss just how much you have people ready to swallow whatever their fav political force feeds them hook line and sinker in US.
If in two-three years whoever has the lead will start working towards "reset" - you can bet they will eventually sell it, because there are plenty drones both sides simping their Big Kahuna unconditionally.
No. No, I really don't.
And for what benefit would they engender this "reset" if not public opinion? What does it gain the politicians to have to use the mechanisms of politics to influence the "drones" enough to do so?
There's very little impetus to change it.
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
That's like reading the cards or crystal ball. Who knows what it will be - likely yes, you'd have to sanction it all, because you certainly can't sanction Russia with one hand and then effectively spam it with humanitarian aid the other (ok yes North Korea, but not a good example IMO).
I do think, however, there is snowball's chance in hell Russia manages to take over Ukraine in that fashion this time around.
As a rule, submissiveness leads to more abuse and suffering than defiance. Still some people would choose to live as a slave while other people would choose to die fighting for their freedom. Ukrainians as a people were fighting for their freedom during majority of the last 500 years, and they made the same choice again a month ago.
There's an entire gamut of options of course, ranging from "fight a guerrilla war after hypothetical full occupation, until the enemy breaks and leaves" to "surrender at the moment of aggression" which already didn't happen, with a dozen of options I could list in between. Surrender is not really an option for Zelensky at this stage, though.
Yeah Ukraine will likely have to compromise, and I even outlined a reasonable compromise 3 weeks ago - Ukraine stays out of NATO, Russia withdraws beyond internationally recognized borders of Ukraine. That is a compromise, not a surrender.