Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Poopymonster]

B-but the west!

Whataboutism, misdirection, and more while Russia continues its invasion of another country and its troops continue to commit war crimes like raping children. Absolute scum.

Well, after communism failed due to human fuckery, what's about the only -ism they have left.

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They'll make 7-11 the 6th largest military in the world in the process too

They trying to dethrone Pepsi?. They had the 6th largest military at one point..

[YUPPIE]

What is this about Russians placing gear near the Finnish border in light of Nato talks? Are these dudes ok? They can't even deal with one ill-prepared opponent, now they're after more?

Then again... posturing and all that.

source:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...join-NATO.html

Anyways, why are you surprised by this? It's been OPENLY SAID many times over, even by Zelenksy himself, Putin is not looking to merely take over Ukraine. He's looking to take over all of Europe and then challenge the US.

[Belize]

So, you admit millions of Russians will die as a result of their own fuckery? There's a pearl of self awareness in that, don't let it go out.

I already made that joke and he bragged about harvesting grain and having running water :/

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What is this about Russians placing gear near the Finnish border in light of Nato talks? Are these dudes ok? They can't even deal with one ill-prepared opponent, now they're after more?

Then again... posturing and all that.

Yeah. Yeah no.

Russia had Ukraine effectively surrounded and can't subjugate it. Finland is chokepoint after chokepoint surrounded by mountains and sea. And they've already beefed up their defenses with the Russian border.

Russia wouldn't make it 10 kilometer in.

[Poopymonster]

I already made that joke and he bragged about harvesting grain and having running water :/

You beat me to it while I was grocery shopping. But it was worth making a second time.

[Rasulis]

China's COVID lockdowns dent oil demand, independent refiners resell crude

Anti-COVID lockdowns have dampened consumption of transportation fuels in China to a point where some independent refiners have resorted to trying to resell crude purchased for delivery over the next two months, traders and analysts said.

While other nations ease restrictions as they rebound from the pandemic, China has adhered to a ‘zero COVID-19” policy, imposing strict restrictions to stop the virus from spreading, although its caseload is modest by global standards.

The current lockdowns in Shanghai, China’s most populous city with 26 million people, and the northeastern province of Jilin have reduced demand in the world’s No. 2 oil consumer and largest crude importer, putting downward pressure on global oil prices that had surged after Russia invaded Ukraine.

A phased, two-week long lockdown began in the eastern half of Shanghai on March 27 and will switch to the western half on April 1. Fuel demand could drop by 200,000 barrels per day during the lockdown, Rystad Energy’s analyst Claudio Galimberti estimated in a note.

That has put further pressure on independent refiners, also known as “teapots”, which account for a fifth of China’s crude imports. They are already struggling with poor margins as Chinese retail fuel prices have lagged the steep rise in global crude prices that followed Moscow’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.

As a result, the independent refiners are expected to lower run rates, and some are trying to resell European, West African and Brazilian crude due to arrive in China over the next two months, traders said.

I posted earlier that the Chinese government warned all state-owned refineries against signing new purchase contracts with Russia. This does not apply to the so called Chinese “teapots” which are the largest “off-the-book” buyers of Russia’s crude. So, when these “teapots” are trying to resell their future contracts (2 months out), you can be sure that they are not buying any crude from Russia.

Also, the article is from March 29. Since the then the lockdowns have grown beyond Shanghai’s 26M citizens to 23 cities and 200M people. The estimated fuel consumption drop of 200,000 barrels per day has grown to 1.4 million barrels per day (including aviation fuel and diesel for manufacturing). The number of flights out of Shanghai airport went down by 90%.

This development reduced the size of the field of potential Russia’s crude buyers in Asia. Lower demand meant lower price. Which may explain why as WTI and Brent recover from the losses yesterday, ESPO continues its downward trend.

Some traders are speculating, that between the lower price, the estimated 20 - 30 percent discount, and higher shipping cost, Russia’s crude net cost may be getting close to its $47 per barrel break even point.

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You do realize similar problem comes up for European buyers of oil when they replace Russian supplies? And there increase in roundtrip time - even when buying from US - can be several times higher given Russian proximity to many European countries.

US also reportedly increased Russian oil deliveries before May deadline by 43%, reaching figure of 100 000 barrels per day.

There are also discounts; high oil prices can make waiting more then worth it.

Yes, European decisions wreck world logistics by keeping tankers busy for longer. Many will be worse off as result.

What May deadline? The ban against US purchasing Russia's crude was effective immediately. All shipments from Russia to US were rerouted to other markets. Including ships already in the Gulf of Mexico.

There is no 100,000 barrels per day.

[Shalcker]

Ergo, to you...money and stability is more important than morality and ethics, and that Russia going full Nazi should be permitted.

Clearly current unipolar system with trade domination failed to prevent another major war.

What was unexpected is West setting old system on fire rather then accept there can be other hard power centers within it then US.

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I posted the link a few page back because some russian soldiers stole flush toilets as they have never seen one.

Some people do live their entire lives in remote villages and becoming soldier is their chance to break out.

That has nothing to do with Russian statistics though.

You only had link to Reddit; maybe you could try looking at proper sites for info.

Why the US ? Are you not old enough to walk alone without comparison with the US ?

Okay, how many French soldiers were persecuted for war crimes?

Clearly we cannot compare Russia to itself - that would be pointless.

[Finlandia WOAT]

You are destroying world economy, not Russian. Russian economy will survive just fine.

We actually can handle it - you can see it on rouble exchange rate graph; but many countries in the world are a lot more vulnerable as result of your actions.

Lmao.

Russia needs the EU/the World far more than the inverse.

Without Russia, EU fuel and food prices rise.

Without the EU, Russia's economy collapses, their industry, which is wholly reliant on Western imports, collapses, their war machine- again, reliant on Western imports- collapses.

EU w/o Russia hurts. Russia w/o EU dies. Putin gets to rule over a smoking crater of bumpkins who truly don't realize they're getting fucked over by a kleptocrat. I empathize, at least RUSSIA STONK helps them sleep at night.

And the only reason the ruble hasn't cratered is because of direct government intervention. That is not a sign of a healthy currency.

[Shalcker]

Not anymore. *filing fingernails*

It takes a lot more then simply declaring it for it to actually happen.

[XDurionX]

It takes a lot more then simply declaring it for it to actually happen.

Your losing 10-15% of your GDP per year, so... *calculates*

[Shalcker]

Russia needs the EU/the World far more than the inverse.

Why exactly?

Without Russia, EU fuel and food prices rise.

And it will drop into multi-year recession. Large part of modern European prosperity lies in cheap Russian resources with incredible logistical advantages.

Without the EU, Russia's economy collapses, their industry, which is wholly reliant on Western imports, collapses, their war machine- again, reliant on Western imports- collapses.

"Wholly reliant" is sad Western bullshit. Did you ever look at actual stats rather then tabloid-level proclamations?

Name the sector, i'll bring real stats.

EU w/o Russia hurts. Russia w/o EU dies.

Russia lived without EU for centuries.

Asia is still there, FSU is still there, Middle East is still there, South America is still there too. There will be no "dying"; this Western exceptionalism is pure hubris.

And the only reason the ruble hasn't cratered is because of direct government intervention. That is not a sign of a healthy currency.

Do you think ECB interventions are also signs of Euro demise?

Russian capital controls are slowly being lifted; exporters already complain about lack of buyers for Western currencies to fulfil their 80% quota even before gas-for-roubles money roll in, some foreigners will probably be invited back to trade there soon.

[Rasulis]

Lmao.

Russia needs the EU/the World far more than the inverse.

Without Russia, EU fuel and food prices rise.

Without the EU, Russia's economy collapses, their industry, which is wholly reliant on Western imports, collapses, their war machine- again, reliant on Western imports- collapses.

EU w/o Russia hurts. Russia w/o EU dies. Putin gets to rule over a smoking crater of bumpkins who truly don't realize they're getting fucked over by a kleptocrat. I empathize, at least RUSSIA STONK helps them sleep at night.

And the only reason the ruble hasn't cratered is because of direct government intervention. That is not a sign of a healthy currency.

PMI index from Trading Economics. Over 50 meant expansion, under 50 meant contraction.

EU Manufacturing PMI for March 2022 - 56.50 (dropped from 58.2 in February)
EU Service Sector PMI for March 2022 - 55.6 (up from 55.5 in February)

Russia Manufacturing PMI for March 2022 - 44.10 (dropped from 48.6 in February)
Russia Service Sector PMI for March 2022 - 38.10 (freefall from 52.1 in February)

[Breccia]

What is this about Russians placing gear near the Finnish border in light of Nato talks?

Are you talking about signal jamming gear, or is this something new I haven't linked yet?

[YUPPIE]

for those that adamantly believe Putin will not use nukes: Today he quite literally said peace talks are "over" for good and he will *never* stop his war campaign.

[Mayhem]

And it will drop into multi-year recession. Large part of modern European prosperity lies in cheap Russian resources with incredible logistical advantages.

Uhm, 8% of European imports of goods are from Russia. Large in your world means 8%? Interesting.

You know what, scrap that, if we're going by oec numbers, EU imports from Russia account for 5% and exports for about 4%. Meanwhile, the EU is responsible for half of Russia's imports and exports.

Considering trade, Russia in comparison to the EU is insignificant. You're smaller than the UK by far and that didn't do much either.

[XDurionX]

for those that adamantly believe Putin will not use nukes: Today he quite literally said peace talks are "over" for good and he will *never* stop his war campaign.

Won't you ever shut up about your fucking nukes kid?

[Iphie]

What is this about Russians placing gear near the Finnish border in light of Nato talks? Are these dudes ok? They can't even deal with one ill-prepared opponent, now they're after more?

Then again... posturing and all that.

To be honest, most of the forces on the Finnish border are fighting in Ukraine, and Ukraine was decimating them. What's left are skeleton crews. So this may just be bolstering defenses.

[YUPPIE]

President Vladimir Putin said peace talks with Ukraine are “at a dead end” and vowed to continue Russia’s invasion as Kyiv accused Moscow of sabotaging the negotiations.

There’s been no word of progress for days in video-link peace talks after Ukraine accused Russian troops of carrying out war crimes including killing unarmed civilians in Bucha and other towns in the north. Western leaders have called for international investigations of the deaths.

In his first public comments on the alleged atrocities, Putin first compared them to U.S. attacks on cities like Raqqa in Syria and then called the Bucha claims “fake.”

Russia’s almost seven-week offensive is going “according to plan,” Putin said Tuesday at a joint press conference at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-to-pursue-war

Also, those "chemical weapons" the Russians allegedly used the other day were white phosphorus bombs. Just as bad.

[Shalcker]

And? Russia's actions have provided the impetuous for the West to spend the money doing this. It is only a matter time.

Building new LNG terminals and pipelines to Asia is only a matter of time too.

We'll be in exact same spot with both sides paying more for logistics and ultimate benefits going to China. There will be no death of Russian economy.

The world needs energy but the majority of nations are moving towards more sustainable sources and whilst we might suffer in short to medium term you only need to see the destruction caused by Russia in Ukraine to realise whatever we have to suffer through it is nothing to what Russia has inflicted on them and is absolutely worth it!

The problem is West already underinvested into fossil energy way ahead of the curve of "sustainable sources" introduction. And now you want to cut Russia.

Even with Russia you'll already enter energy crunch this decade - price increases in 2021 were sign of how vulnerable your system is to sudden renewable energy disruptions; if you manage to cut Russia prices will be insane, and there will be real shortages everywhere.

[Finlandia WOAT]

"Wholly reliant" is sad Western bullshit. Did you ever look at actual stats rather then tabloid-level proclamations?

Name the sector, i'll bring real stats.

Anything that requires semiconductors and microchips. Aka anything electrical.

Aka...everything.

Whomp whomp.

(This is why, BTW, if China tries to take Taiwan by force the US will absolutely go to war to stop it)

Russia lived without EU for centuries.

Yes. Back when Muscovy's main export were beavers, everyone thought disease was caused by swamp gas, and you were an old man if you lived past 30.

Putin's grip on power is pretty stable, but even he wouldn't survive if Russia returned to that quality of life.

Asia is still there, FSU is still there, Middle East is still there, South America is still there too. There will be no "dying"; this Western exceptionalism is pure hubris.

Says the paid troll proclaiming the West will collapse without cheap Russian gas.

Do you think ECB interventions are also signs of Euro demise?

Russian capital controls are slowly being lifted; exporters already complain about lack of buyers for Western currencies to fulfil their 80% quota even before gas-for-roubles money roll in, some foreigners will probably be invited back to trade there soon.

I'd change the subject too, if I were you.

[Azadina]

Finland is chokepoint after chokepoint surrounded by mountains and sea. And they've already beefed up their defenses with the Russian border.

Russia wouldn't make it 10 kilometer in.

Umm...No not quite. There's almost no mountains here. It's just forest.