Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Vampiregenesis]

They aren't really advancing across entire frontline, those forces will be (probably) concentrated into 2 pincers attempting an enveloping maneuver. Central part of Donbass front near Donetsk city hasn't really moved during these almost 2 months, I still hear them firing artillery from apparently the same spot because sound didn't change, except at some point they switched from mostly rocket artillery to overwhelmingly cannons. So yeah all those BTGs are probably pushing south from Izyum or west from Kreminna, and north from somewhere not reported yet west of Donetsk, while Ukrainian forces are held up here.

We really need some militaristic minds back in this thread now...

Have you not left yet? you know this place may turn into a mariupol?

[Pann]

The UK to revoke the Moscow Stock Exchange's status as a recognised stock exchange.

https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/statu...95536777203729

[MCMLXXXII]

The UK to revoke the Moscow Stock Exchange's status as a recognised stock exchange.

https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/statu...95536777203729

Lol one reply is savage in that thread:

updated map with European capitals:

[Breccia]

The UK to revoke the Moscow Stock Exchange's status as a recognised stock exchange.

I mean, after a month of government price-fixing, not a huge surprise. By the way, down 1% today 9% last five days.

[Rasulis]

Why Asia won’t replace EU as Russia’s crude destination - Page 5 Credit Suisse March 31, 2022 Analysis.

Shipping used to be about minimizing the time it takes to get commodities from producers to consumers. Time at sea is a function of sea routes, and different sea routes correspond to different types of vessels. In the case of oil, for example, the three main types of vessels are VLCC,Suezmax, and Aframax vessels. VLCCs(very large crude carriers) carry 2million barrels and are used for long-haul voyages. There are about 800 VLCCs in the world. Suezmax refers to tankers that are capable of passing through the Suez Canal in a laden condition. Suezmax
tankers carry 1 million barrels on long-haul voyages. There are 700 of them. Aframax vessels are “go-fast boats” in comparison, shuttling 600,000 barrels on short-haul trips. There are about 600 Aframax carriers in the world. All this detail is important to know when the flow of oil and in particular, the flow of Russian oil is disrupted. If you trade STIR and cared about money fund reform, you need to follow “oil flow reform” too (reform due to sanctions, not SEC rules).

VLCCs and banks’ LCLoR are interrelated. This is how:

Oil from Russia (Urals) gets loaded on Aframax carrie rs at the Port of Primorsk or the Port of Ust Luga to then be shipped on short shuttle runs to Hamburg and Rotterdam. But if Europe boycotts Russian oil, Russia will have to ship its oil to Asia through much less-efficient routes. Oil must be pumped, oil fields don’t like to be turned off and on, and there are no new pipelines to Asia. Storage capacity can accommodate excess production in Russia for a while, but when storage facilities fill up, oil will have to get moved. Without pipelines, the only way Russian oil can be moved over to China will be through vessels, and this is where things get complicated: it’s uneconomical to transport crude on long-haul voyages on Aframax carriers. If Europe no longer wants Russian oil and Russian oil needs an outlet, and that outlet is a buyer in China (see here), China will need more VLCC carriers to get oil from Primorsk and Ust Luga.

Now the details.

Roughly 1.3 million barrels of oil get shipped from Primorsk and Ust Luga to Europe on Aframax carriers, and these journeys take a week or two to complete. If Russia now needs to move the same amount of oil not to Europe but China, the first logistical problem it face
s is that it can’t load Urals onto VLCCs in Primorsk or Ust Luga because those ports aren’t deep enough to dock VLCCs. Russia will first have to sail Aframax vessels to a port for STS crude transfer (ship-to-ship crude transfer) onto VLCCs. STS crude transfer takes weeks, and after the transfer is done, the VLCC will sail two months east, discharge, and go back to the Baltics, which will also take two months. Conservatively, Russian crude traveled about a week or two before it fueled economic activity(the time it took to sail smaller Aframax carriers from Primorsk to Hamburg) and now will have to travel at least four months before it fuels economic activity.

Worse, it’s not just the time to market that’s getting worse, but we also end up with a ship shortage and a corresponding surge in shipping freight rates: consider that we are still using the same number of Aframax ships as before but now as links in a longer intermediation chain
(the STS crude transfer bit), and we now also need 80 VLCCs to get the oil to the final consumer in China. 80 VLCCs are basically the product of the new, longer shipping routes to China: the logic is that instead of taking a week or so to move the oil to consumers, oil will now take at least 120 days (two months plus two months = four months) to transport, and so 1.3 million barrels per day (which is 75% of a VLCC’s load times 120 days over 2 million barrels ship size is 78 VLCCs in permanent use!

The 80 VLCCs the world will soon be short of represent about 10% of the world’s VLCC capacity, which includes 50 VLCCs that are Iranian flag vessels (NIOC) that are currently being used for floating storage, so the re-routing of Russian crude oil will encumber more than 10% of the global VLCC capacity.

It gets more complicated.

TL;DR - In the time it took Russia to deliver a single shipment of crude to Asia, China and India could have received 5 - 6 shipments from Australia & the Middle East, and 3 shipments from US. Russia’s crude may be cheaper, but the much longer delivery time, shipping cost (tankers are charged by the day) and insurance (longer routes cost more) add up to the final cost.

Secondary problem - China’s Covid lockdown. China’s refineries output went down 900,000 barrels per day in March (6.3% of average production on the previous months). The lockdown has since grown to encompass around 400 millions of Chinese citizens. Double March’s peak number. Expect China’s crude demand to decline even further in April.

[Afrospinach]

Supposedly some pretty serious bombs have been dropped on Azovstal in Mariupol and there is basically nothing left.

[Iphie]

Supposedly some pretty serious bombs have been dropped on Azovstal in Mariupol and there is basically nothing left.

Not seeing it in the news, only a big bomb on the hospital close by, so if you have a source that would be great.

[Afrospinach]

Not seeing it in the news, only a big bomb on the hospital close by, so if you have a source that would be great.

https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/...52390496575494

[Rasulis]

In the week leading up to April 15, crude flows stood at 3.12 million barrels per day, marking a 25% drop from the previous week, according to data from Bloomberg. Cargoes heading to Asia from ports on the Black Sea, Baltic, and Arctic coasts have hit their lowest in two months.

I told you so is a major understatement.

[Zaydin]

Cargoes heading to Asia from ports on the Black Sea, Baltic, and Arctic coasts have hit their lowest in two months.

I told you so is a major understatement.

To be fair, any Russian cargo ships heading through the Black Sea run the risk of running into their own mines given how incompetent the Russian military has been as a whole.

[Deus Mortis]

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...id-comparable/

[PhaelixWW]

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...id-comparable/

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/_p...38edd2c243.png
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/_p...408a1e94a8.png

That doesn't even count the nearly $3.9b (€3.6b) that the US sent to Ukraine between 2014 and February 24, 2022.

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Looks like it maybe finally happened.

CNN: Pentagon: Ukraine has gotten additional aircraft and aircraft parts to increase their fleet size

Ukraine has received additional fighter aircraft from other countries not including the US, as well as additional aircraft parts to allow them to get more planes in the air, according to a Defense Department spokesperson.

"I would just say, without getting into what other nations are providing, that they have received additional platforms and parts to be able to increase their fleet size, their aircraft fleet size. I think I’d leave it at that," said Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby.

More context: A White House official told CNN Saturday that shipments from the Biden administration’s latest security assistance package to Ukraine “have begun arriving,”

US President Joe Biden last week approved an additional package of $800 million worth of weapons, ammunition, and security assistance to Ukraine.

The US has, for the first time, agreed to provide Kyiv with the types of high-power capabilities some Biden administration officials a few short weeks ago viewed as too great of an escalation risk, including 11 Mi-17 helicopters; 18 155 mm Howitzer cannons[ and 300 more Switchblade drones.

[Arrashi]

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...id-comparable/

I get that its purely $ help, but given the fact that Poland accepted over 2 milions (and still counting) refugees and help they received, the humanitarian aid on Poland side should be out of chart.

[Forogil]

That doesn't even count the nearly $3.9b (€3.6b) that the US sent to Ukraine between 2014 and February 24, 2022.

And neither does it include the intelligence support, which Ukraine seems to have made good use of.

Some of that is visible, e.g. some airplanes - both before the recent outbreak of hostility (when NATO flew inside Ukraine), and after it (now you instead see refueling planes and intelligence gathering planes like AWACS flying circles just outside Ukraine; well AWACS makes perfect circles - the others less so).

[PhaelixWW]

I get that its purely $ help, but given the fact that Poland accepted over 2 milions (and still counting) refugees and help they received, the humanitarian aid on Poland side should be out of chart.

Some of the funds/humanitarian aid earmarked for Ukrainians was actually sent from other countries to countries accepting refugees.

EU: €17 billion of EU funds to help refugees

But yeah, Poland is offering a lot more than the chart says.

Reuters: Poland to set up $1.75 billion fund to assist Ukrainian refugees

[Poopymonster]

To be fair, any Russian cargo ships heading through the Black Sea run the risk of running into their own mines given how incompetent the Russian military has been as a whole.

Neptune might take offense also.

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And neither does it include the intelligence support, which Ukraine seems to have made good use of.

Some of that is visible, e.g. some airplanes - both before the recent outbreak of hostility (when NATO flew inside Ukraine), and after it (now you instead see refueling planes and intelligence gathering planes like AWACS flying circles just outside Ukraine; well AWACS makes perfect circles - the others less so).

Any bets on when the first trigger happy Dakkajet shoots and possibly downs an AWACS that is outside the Ukraine?

[Iphie]

Any bets on when the first trigger happy Dakkajet shoots and possibly downs an AWACS that is outside the Ukraine?

I sincerely hope that the russian pilots have more discipline than that.

[KrayZ33]

It seems to me that you don't know anything about Germany blocking transports of weapons to Ukraine followed by saying they don't have enough extra surplus stocks to help Ukraine and other bullshit attempts to not do jackshit in helping Ukraine since the conflict started.
Also clueless about the corrupt german politicians sucking up to Russia over the years and the general place of Germany in EU in general.

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That has nothing to do with the quote or comment about european countries still buying gas from Russia.
Germany isn't the exception there.

[Poopymonster]

I sincerely hope that the russian pilots have more discipline than that.

I would hope so too. But "discipline is something that happens to others" seems to be the prevailing attitude in their military.

[Rasulis]

Neptune might take offense also.

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Any bets on when the first trigger happy Dakkajet shoots and possibly downs an AWACS that is outside the Ukraine?

The AWACS should be flying well within NATO airspace. As soon as any Russian aircrafts breach the airspace, there will be multiple NATO combat aircrafts on intercept path. Probably summoned by the AWACS which could see the enemies coming from far away.