Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

This is an interesting thread on a possible post-Ukraine by a supposed FSB informer. Spoiler alert, Kadyrov is getting himself ready to make all hell break loose

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...61793716408320

Interesting, is this the same guy who had translated some letters saying that russia could maybe fight until June? I have to admit though, while appealing, a russian civil war with various factions who might control nuclear weapons facilities is a bit scary. (even if they couldn't launch them.)

[Kallisto]

Interesting, is this the same guy who had translated some letters saying that russia could maybe fight until June? I have to admit though, while appealing, a russian civil war with various factions who might control nuclear weapons facilities is a bit scary. (even if they couldn't launch them.)

Especially if one of them is the guy who is in charge of the Chechens

[Seiklis]

Interesting, is this the same guy who had translated some letters saying that russia could maybe fight until June? I have to admit though, while appealing, a russian civil war with various factions who might control nuclear weapons facilities is a bit scary. (even if they couldn't launch them.)

It's the same twitter user who posted those letters, idk if it's the same FSB agent

Especially if one of them is the guy who is in charge of the Chechens

Especially when he'd have the strongest army left in Russia in such a scenario

[Saradain]

Especially when he'd have the strongest army left in Russia in such a scenario

A delicious irony should he declare that Russia oppresses chechens in other parts of Russia, validating...a special military operation to free the said chechens

[Iphie]

It's the same twitter user who posted those letters, idk if it's the same FSB agent



Especially when he'd have the strongest army left in Russia in such a scenario

Yeah, I assume there are contingency plans for situations like this though, just like I assume the same thing applies to the US in a similar case.

[jonnysensible]

This is an interesting thread on a possible post-Ukraine by a supposed FSB informer. Spoiler alert, Kadyrov is getting himself ready to make all hell break loose

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...61793716408320

that guy is a qanon level bullshit merchant

[Azadina]

Yeah, I assume there are contingency plans for situations like this though, just like I assume the same thing applies to the US in a similar case.

I'd imagine the contingency is something like what Soleimani got very familiarized with.

[Iphie]

I'd imagine the contingency is something like what Soleimani got very familiarized with.

I meant more in the situation where a nuclear power dissolves into various warring factions who each have control over nuclear weapons facilities or launchers. I mean there must be someone who thought, hey, we probably need to make sure these things can't be activated during a civil war, right?

[Mihalik]

This is an interesting thread on a possible post-Ukraine by a supposed FSB informer. Spoiler alert, Kadyrov is getting himself ready to make all hell break loose

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...61793716408320

Please stop with that drivel.

1. Khadyrov is not a strategic genius. I know that a lot of people have been looking for some other strategic genius inside Russia after Putin proved himself to not be one, but Khadyrov ain't it.

2. The Chechens don't have some super secret strategic reserves. Chechnya has population of a whooping 1.4 million. It would be a major population strain pulling together 100k military aged men. Chenchenya doesn't have much of an economy. Something like 80% of the state budget is literally just money Putin hands over to Khadyrov. They will toe the line.

3. One of the many myths this war has busted is the supposed elite status of the Chechens. The Chechens have been basically labeled Khadyrov's Tik Tok Warriors, which they have proven themselves to be. They are rarely deployed because they are useless. They mostly operate outside the Russian chain of command so their tactical utility is limited and whenever they come up on Ukrainian units they get their asses handed to them horribly. So they drive around in their overpriced privately bough kit, take pictures of stuff then rape some women and torture some civilians. That's the extent of their utility.

Please try to find better sources.

[Edge-]

Please stop with that drivel.

1. Khadyrov is not a strategic genius. I know that a lot of people have been looking for some other strategic genius inside Russia after Putin proved himself to not be one, but Khadyrov ain't it.

2. The Chechens don't have some super secret strategic reserves. Chechnya has population of a whooping 1.4 million. It would be a major population strain pulling together 100k military aged men. Chenchenya doesn't have much of an economy. Something like 80% of the state budget is literally just money Putin hands over to Khadyrov. They will toe the line.

3. One of the many myths this war has busted is the supposed elite status of the Chechens. The Chechens have been basically labeled Khadyrov's Tik Tok Warriors, which they have proven themselves to be. They are rarely deployed because they are useless. They mostly operate outside the Russian chain of command so their tactical utility is limited and whenever they come up on Ukrainian units they get their asses handed to them horribly. So they drive around in their overpriced privately bough kit, take pictures of stuff then rape some women and torture some civilians. That's the extent of their utility.

Please try to find better sources.

Wasn't one of the lead Cechnen dudes pretending to be in Ukraine? Is he still pretending? I know his phone got pinged from Chechnya while he claimed to be in Ukraine, and they staged a hilariously incompetent photo-op of him praying at a gas station from a chain that doesn't exist in Ukraine.

Are they still keeping that act up?

[Mihalik]

Wasn't one of the lead Cechnen dudes pretending to be in Ukraine? Is he still pretending? I know his phone got pinged from Chechnya while he claimed to be in Ukraine, and they staged a hilariously incompetent photo-op of him praying at a gas station from a chain that doesn't exist in Ukraine.

Are they still keeping that act up?

I honestly don't know what the fuck Kadyrov is up to be honest. He's either petting kittens or torturing gay kids to death with electroshocks. He is basically a King Joffrey who made it into adulthood, being given a sandbox to be a tyrant in by Papa Putin.

[Iphie]

Wasn't one of the lead Cechnen dudes pretending to be in Ukraine? Is he still pretending? I know his phone got pinged from Chechnya while he claimed to be in Ukraine, and they staged a hilariously incompetent photo-op of him praying at a gas station from a chain that doesn't exist in Ukraine.

Are they still keeping that act up?

That would be Kadyrov himself, yes. I don't think he's keeping up that pretense anymore, no.

[Edge-]

I honestly don't know what the fuck Kadyrov is up to be honest. He's either petting kittens or torturing gay kids to death with electroshocks. He is basically a King Joffrey who made it into adulthood, being given a sandbox to be a tyrant in by Papa Putin.

He honestly seems like the adult version of the 15 year old who hit puberty way too early and has a really nasty facial growth (his beard is pretty shit) and no parental supervision, so he got his kicks off bullying gradeschoolers and trying to capture and torture small animals.

It's impressive how such deeply inadequate men manage to rise to such ranks of power with penises and ego's so tiny and fragile.

[Mihalik]

He honestly seems like the adult version of the 15 year old who hit puberty way too early and has a really nasty facial growth (his beard is pretty shit) and no parental supervision, so he got his kicks off bullying gradeschoolers and trying to capture and torture small animals.

It's impressive how such deeply inadequate men manage to rise to such ranks of power with penises and ego's so tiny and fragile.

Well...He inherited the position. His daddy was warlord who was made Putin's sockpuppet in Chechenya after he betrayed the separatists and switched sides. Daddy got blown up at a military parade so Ramzan inherited daddy's militia and Russian ties/support.

[Edge-]

Well...He inherited the position.

The meritocracy wins again!

Wait...what?

[Finlandia WOAT]

I honestly don't know what the fuck Kadyrov is up to be honest. He's either petting kittens or torturing gay kids to death with electroshocks. He is basically a King Joffrey who made it into adulthood, being given a sandbox to be a tyrant in by Papa Putin.

He's like Joffrey if Joffrey were Ned Stark's grandsonon whose father betrayed the Starks to join the Lannisters

[Rasulis]

Can I say "I told you so" again?

India struggles to find vessel to ship crude from Russia

India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is struggling to find a vessel to ship 700,000 barrels of crude from Russia’s Far East, in a growing sign that complex trades involving one of Moscow’s biggest partners are being interrupted by Western sanctions, Reuters has reported, citing sources.

Several Indian companies including ONGC have stakes in Russian oil and gas assets, and India has been buying more Russian crude since Moscow invaded Ukraine, snapping up the popular Urals crude grade, while other buyers have shunned Russian exports.

ONGC has a 20 percent stake in the Sakhalin 1 project that produces a Russian grade known as Sokol, which ONGC exports through tenders. Sokol is mostly bought by North Asian buyers and loaded from South Korea.

However, Moscow’s ability to ship that grade, which requires vessels that can break through ice, is becoming harder due to concerns from shippers over reputational risk and the increasing difficulty for Russian assets to find insurance coverage.

Normally, cargoes of Sokol oil are first shipped from the De-Kastri terminal in Russia’s Far East using ice-class vessels to South Korea, where they are then reloaded onto a conventional tanker.

Indian refiners rarely buy the Sokol grade, as difficult logistics make the crude costly. There are a limited number of ice-class vessels in the global merchant fleet that can be deployed at any time.

ONGC relies on ice-class vessels provided by Russia’s state-owned Sovcomflot (SCF) for the transportation of crude to Yeosu port in South Korea, and from there the Indian company exports to buyers, mostly in North Asia.

However, sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, Britain, the European Union and Canada after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, in addition to specific restrictions on SCF, are making it harder for Russian ships, including SCF’s fleet, to maintain insurance and reinsurance cover for voyages, shipping sources said.

Shipping companies are also less willing to move Russian oil in Asia, fearing the potential reputational risks involved with charters, the shipping sources added.

Last month, ONGC did not receive any bids in its tender for the export of Sokol as buyers backed out due to Western sanctions.

That led to ONGC selling one cargo each to Indian state refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL).

BPCL’s cargo was scheduled for lifting early next month from Yeosu port in South Korea, while HPCL was awarded the cargo for lifting at the end of May, according to shipping sources.

BPCL had floated an enquiry to charter a vessel from the South Korean port and sought to book the vessel Atlantis for early May shipments, shipping reports show.

The fixture failed, however, as ONGC could not arrange a vessel to Yeosu port partly due to issues with securing insurance for the voyage, sources said.

ONGC, HPCL and BPCL did not respond to Reuters emails seeking comment.

This year, India has bought more than twice as much crude from Russia in the two months since its invasion of Ukraine as it did in all of 2021.

Russia’s maritime sector is grappling with the winding down of services including ship certification by leading foreign providers such as Britain’s LR and Norway’s DNV.

Marine fuel sellers have stopped serving vessels flying the Russian flag at major European hubs including Spain and Malta in another blow to Moscow’s exports, sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

The EU in March listed SCF among Russian state-owned companies with which it was “prohibited to directly or indirectly engage in any transaction” after a wind down period ends on May 15.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was invited by Indonesian President Joko Widodo to attend this year's Group of 20 summit in Bali

Thats interesting.

[Iphie]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was invited by Indonesian President Joko Widodo to attend this year's Group of 20 summit in Bali

Thats interesting.

That's the same G20 Putin wants to attend, and several others have said didn't want him to attend? (though I think China, backed Russia's participation) Yeah, might be awkwaaaaard!

[Rasulis]

Operation Z: The Death Throes of an Imperial Delusion

The downloadable report has some interesting findings. Based on examination of the remnants of Russian weaponry in Ukraine, the researchers discovered a heavy reliance on components from the United States and other western countries. Some examples, U.S.-made circuit boards in the advanced Iskander-K cruise missile, U.S.-made fiber-optic gyroscopes in the 9M949 artillery rocket and a British-made oscillator in the TOR-M2 air-defense system. Almost all of Russia’s modern military hardware is dependent on electronics imported from the U.S., UK, Germany, Netherlands, Japan, Israel and China.

[Mihalik]

Operation Z: The Death Throes of an Imperial Delusion

The downloadable report has some interesting findings. Based on examination of the remnants of Russian weaponry in Ukraine, the researchers discovered a heavy reliance on components from the United States and other western countries. Some examples, U.S.-made circuit boards in the advanced Iskander-K cruise missile, U.S.-made fiber-optic gyroscopes in the 9M949 artillery rocket and a British-made oscillator in the TOR-M2 air-defense system. Almost all of Russia’s modern military hardware is dependent on electronics imported from the U.S., UK, Germany, Netherlands, Japan, Israel and China.

That's the absolutely least surprising part. Last I checked nobody was lining up to buy Russian computers...or airliners, or cars, or ships, or industrial machinery.

Russia does not manufacture anything more advanced than technology available circa mid 80s.

They still have some design and final assembly expertise in things like military hardware left over from the Soviets, but they can't bud the electronics that goes into it.

I mean Jesus Christ, the latest most modern iteration of their AK design makes the Chinese variants look like modern wonders of craftsmanship.

This loss of manufacturing knowhow is now going to accelerate.