Russian invasion of Ukraine

[zorkuus]

Maybe. Problem is, Putin threw way too few people at this. The military he kept -- presumably the average or better ones -- can handle what's left of the units that stumble back across the border. For there to be a military uprising, a decent chunk of the remaining military (troops and commanders) have to take moral/ethical offense to what has happened to their comrades. Hell, the Kremlin police can defeat the tired, exhausted 10% remnants that stumble home with no food or ammo.

Putin has this covered. The rumor is he will declare an official war on Ukraine on may 9th, allowing for full mobilization. The morons will probably enthutiastically rally behind the war (at first anyway).

[Iphie]

I...ninety? Really?

Mind you, that's that particular unit, but consider this, Russia started with 130 BTG's in Ukraine, they have currently 92 active the rest are presumed eliminated from the war. It's not 90% but it's horrendous.

Maybe. Problem is, Putin threw way too few people at this. The military he kept -- presumably the average or better ones -- can handle what's left of the units that stumble back across the border. For there to be a military uprising, a decent chunk of the remaining military (troops and commanders) have to take moral/ethical offense to what has happened to their comrades. Hell, the Kremlin police can defeat the tired, exhausted 10% remnants that stumble home with no food or ammo.

He didn't keep too much behind, there's rosvigardya, but they aren't really equipped for this.

[Breccia]

The rumor is he will declare an official war on Ukraine on may 9th

Wow, that's, like, the opposite of the rumors I'd seen discussed here so far. He was supposed to say the war was over by May 9.

(sighs)

Fine, whatever. Ukraine, if you make it to May 9 and Putin has to officially declare war and fully mobilize to defeat you, you just showed the world how little of a super-power they really are. You pulled a total Broxigar and wounded Sargeras on his own turf.

Yeah, I know, you'll have a really accurate tombstone.

[Iphie]

Wow, that's, like, the opposite of the rumors I'd seen discussed here so far. He was supposed to say the war was over by May 9.

First time I hear of the rumour he will declare war the 9th, but we'll see, next week will be crucial, if the Russians lose ground then I don't know how feasible it is to declare war.. According to the brits the russians are making progress, but, as usual, not at the pace they want. Ukraine says they are paying a horrendous price for their advance.

And then there's what Putin himself says, he hopes that negotiations will have a positive outcome...I suppose we can discount the last as there's no reason to assume this is true, though Lavrov said something similar.

[zorkuus]

Wow, that's, like, the opposite of the rumors I'd seen discussed here so far. He was supposed to say the war was over by May 9.

(sighs)

Fine, whatever. Ukraine, if you make it to May 9 and Putin has to officially declare war and fully mobilize to defeat you, you just showed the world how little of a super-power they really are. You pulled a total Broxigar and wounded Sargeras on his own turf.

Yeah, I know, you'll have a really accurate tombstone.

Under no circumstances can Putler end the "special operation" without a victory. An official war accompanied with full mobilization is pretty much the only thing left that might secure a big win.

[Breccia]

Under no circumstances can Putler end the "special operation" without a victory. An official war accompanied with full mobilization is pretty much the only thing left that might secure a big win.

A Pyrrhic victory. As in "Putin is acting like a big Pyrrhic because he has a small Pyrrhic".

[Afrospinach]

Maybe. Problem is, Putin threw way too few people at this.

In some places this may be true but looking at how poor the Russian forces have been at mobility and supply within Ukraine. 80km convoy, 160km convoy. Same thing.

Some absolutely savage videos posted today here:

https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1

And a little remark about a firefight between two RUSSIAN forces over loot spoils.

oh, and another insight into Russian soldier armor. They are basically wearing WW2 era protection for helmets. Earlier he had something about their ballistic vest as well which I did not watch but he was holding up a vest perforated with holes so either it is inadequate or they are wearing no plates at all.

[zealo]

I...ninety? Really?

Probably highly exaggerated figures.

What collectively goes into a modern fighting formation means it’ll cease to be effective in combat far earlier than that.

[YUPPIE]

At the rate this is going, I wonder how Putin will have his victory parade on May 9th.

For those of you people that think that still sounds silly or far-fetched, Putin has been really doubling down on that day in absolutes. It *will* happen, apparently. But the logistics right now make it seem questionable how he will achieve the ends to have that day become real.

[jonnysensible]

At the rate this is going, I wonder how Putin will have his victory parade on May 9th.

For those of you people that think that still sounds silly or far-fetched, Putin has been really doubling down on that day in absolutes. It *will* happen, apparently. But the logistics right now make it seem questionable how he will achieve the ends to have that day become real.

what do you mean? its just a parade, literally being practiced the other day.

[Afrospinach]

Probably highly exaggerated figures.

What collectively goes into a modern fighting formation means it’ll cease to be effective in combat far earlier than that.

I am sure there are specific instances of this happening to entire companies. Several, in fact, have been wiped out in the Kherson region trying to advance over the past couple of weeks.

Trouble with Russia is they are almost post modern with their tactics where tank > all with it's awesome fire power, awareness and yada yada yada. There is this youtube channel "task and purpose" that is delving into various technical aspects of tanks/drones and so on. Occasionally he drops really interesting info such as the fact that this invasion Russia is doing has an almost textbook approach according to their own doctrine and it has essentially been foiled by mud and NLAWs.

what do you mean? its just a parade, literally being practiced the other day.

He is just getting his nuke boner ready for another round of puerile nonsense.

[DarkTZeratul]

At the rate this is going, I wonder how Putin will have his victory parade on May 9th.

For those of you people that think that still sounds silly or far-fetched, Putin has been really doubling down on that day in absolutes. It *will* happen, apparently. But the logistics right now make it seem questionable how he will achieve the ends to have that day become real.

Honestly, given how pervasive and flagrantly untruthful Russian propaganda has been thus far, he could simply declare victory and have a parade in full defiance of the reality of the situation. He's lied about every other aspect of the invasion of Ukraine, why not just lie about winning, too?

[Makabreska]

Welp, no other country joining Putler on the 9th parade, not even Belarus.

[Finlandia WOAT]

Putin has this covered. The rumor is he will declare an official war on Ukraine on may 9th, allowing for full mobilization. The morons will probably enthutiastically rally behind the war (at first anyway).

The thing is, it's not like Putin can snap his fingers and send the Red Army to Ukraine by next week.

It isn't like this is WC3 and Putin has 100 barracks and stockpiled gold and pop so all he has to do is click and start mass producing footmen. He has to build that up first. They need to be trained. The trainers need to be trained. You need to find equipment. It took the US 18 months before they could field an army in WW2- and they already had a great start on the war economy in Lend Lease to GB and the USSR. Russia today is a joke economy, under massive sanctions that can't build anything without foreign imports.

As Phil O Brien on Twitter observed, the 33 billion for Ukraine carries the stated goal of Ukr defeating Russia within 5 months. If they rush and are fine with chucking poorly trained, poorly equipped conscripts into a meat grinder (very hard to believe I know) Russia can probably get them out in 6 months.

[zorkuus]

The thing is, it's not like Putin can snap his fingers and send the Red Army to Ukraine by next week.

It isn't like this is WC3 and Putin has 100 barracks and stockpiled gold and pop so all he has to do is click and start mass producing footmen. He has to build that up first. They need to be trained. The trainers need to be trained.

They have reserves. Because it's not a "war", they cannot be used... yet. Hence he will declare war. Many experts are almost sure of it. That's his last chance to save face.

[Poopymonster]

He is just getting his nuke boner ready for another round of puerile nonsense.

His normal conspiracy schtick reads like Tweek from South Park.
His nuclear shit? I read it in this voice.

[YUPPIE]

what do you mean? its just a parade, literally being practiced the other day.

The things he implies that make it questionable is

1) he plans on it being IN Ukraine no matter what

2) he plans on being there

[Iphie]

They have reserves. Because it's not a "war", they cannot be used... yet. Hence he will declare war. Many experts are almost sure of it. That's his last chance to save face.

Reserves aren't just combat ready like that...they need training and equipping, did you think he could just snap his fingers and have the reserves combat ready?

To spell it out: reserves are those men who will be eligible to be called in after their service, but they go on to have a normal life after their service so they really need training first.

[zorkuus]

Reserves aren't just combat ready like that...they need training and equipping, did you think he could just snap his fingers and have the reserves combat ready?

That has never been a main concern in the russian military. Their tactics usually involve just sending out troops as cannon fodder anyway.

[PhaelixWW]

The things he implies that make it questionable is

1) he plans on it being IN Ukraine no matter what

2) he plans on being there

Says whom? Your inner monologue?

This is just more of your made-up bullshit.