1. #18341
    Nancy Pelosi was in Ukraine on Saturday. The Russian missed a chance to make their US supporters happy by dropping a bomb on her.

  2. #18342
    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    You really think that totalitarian dictatorship will implement a training program in their military that will foster independent thought and train officers not to follow their orders to a letter?

    Fucking lol.
    Lmao, even.
    The whole 3 Sims and "Signature Illegible" incident highlights the limits of "independent thought" in the Russian military.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by KrayZ33 View Post
    As I expected.
    Now, a bit later, a lot of things become clear.
    Not only is supply basically non-existent (due to the swiss not delivering), maintanance is horrible to provide as well, and military experts believe it will probably take months to properly train ukraine soldiers in using these.
    There are other ways of getting munitions. There's a bunch of stock existing in countries that operate Oerlikon guns. The 35mm Oerlikon is one of the most common projectile based anti air weapon systems used world wide. A bunch of countries also manufacture munitions under license, including places like Turkey and even China.

    The "months" to train...that's an ideal conditions scenario. Crash course training is possible.

    Would the crews be able to use them to their maximum potential efficiency? No.
    Would they be able to shoot the guns at helicopters, APCs, tanks, entrenched positions? Absolutely. Again, keep in mind, these things are theoretically "anti-air guns"...in practice, these fucking things can fuck up anything you point them at short of an MBT, even those might take a pounding.

    The only real concern here, is the Germans using all the issues you mentioned as excuses to delay deliveries as long as humanly possible. Something Scholz is waay to prone to doing.

  3. #18343
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    The whole 3 Sims and "Signature Illegible" incident highlights the limits of "independent thought" in the Russian military.
    Exactly. A military where fucking up an operation like that in such an obvious way is preferable to questioning authority or disobeying direct orders will never ever ever ever get better no matter how many NCOs they train.

  4. #18344
    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    what if it turns May 9th and Russia has not only not won the war, but accomplished squat?

    It feels like they're ramping up their offensive so desperately because they fear Putin's wrath, which in and of itself is probably why morale is so fucked up with Russian troops.

    Putin putatively also demanded Russian generals "win" in Ukraine by February 28th- "Defender of the Fatherland Day". That didn't happen, and the war continued.

    They just have a cultural obsession with holidays. He'll probably announce "We have achieved our objectives" (read: paint a bullseye around the arrow) and need to continue so that our slain comrades did not die in vain

  5. #18345
    Ok Russians, a new nonprofit group helping emigres, used a sampling of data from neighboring nations and social media surveys to estimate that nearly 300,000 Russians overall had left since the war began.

    Mitya Aleshkovskiy, co-founder of Ok Russians, said some of those leaving are opposition activists, artists and journalists — people whom President Vladimir Putin is probably happy to see go, and whose departure could reduce active dissent within Russia. But nearly half of those leaving hail from tech — a highly transient, globally in-demand workforce that includes many who fear Russia’s global isolation, newly adverse business climate and near-total authoritarianism.


    So, around 150k tech workers had left. Which is about 10% of Russia's tech workforce.

  6. #18346
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    The whole 3 Sims and "Signature Illegible" incident highlights the limits of "independent thought" in the Russian military.

    - - - Updated - - -



    There are other ways of getting munitions. There's a bunch of stock existing in countries that operate Oerlikon guns. The 35mm Oerlikon is one of the most common projectile based anti air weapon systems used world wide. A bunch of countries also manufacture munitions under license, including places like Turkey and even China.

    The "months" to train...that's an ideal conditions scenario. Crash course training is possible.

    Would the crews be able to use them to their maximum potential efficiency? No.
    Would they be able to shoot the guns at helicopters, APCs, tanks, entrenched positions? Absolutely. Again, keep in mind, these things are theoretically "anti-air guns"...in practice, these fucking things can fuck up anything you point them at short of an MBT, even those might take a pounding.

    The only real concern here, is the Germans using all the issues you mentioned as excuses to delay deliveries as long as humanly possible. Something Scholz is waay to prone to doing.
    The anti-war yada yada leftist faction "we will be part of a war, don't do it" people in Germany are not making it easy for Scholz though.
    According to surveys, only 55% think it's okay to send heavy weapons. I doubt these people have any ulterior motive like "when we deliver heavy weapons, our gas is gone". They just don't want to have anything to do with war.

    We have satire shows making fun of how these weapons are useless as well. Just mentioning it because these kind of shows are usuallymore "neutral" than anything.

    I really don't know what the fuck to do. If it were up to me I'd say Russia deserves to be crushed tbh. But that would obviously lead to an actual, gigantic war.
    Last edited by KrayZ33; 2022-05-01 at 06:47 PM.

  7. #18347
    Quote Originally Posted by KrayZ33 View Post
    The anti-war yada yada leftist faction "we will be part of a war, don't do it" people in Germany are not making it easy for Scholz though.
    According to surveys, only 55% think it's okay to send heavy weapons. I doubt these people have any ulterior motive like "when we deliver heavy weapons, our gas is gone". They just don't want to have anything to do with war.

    We have satire shows making fun of how these weapons are useless as well. Just mentioning it because these kind of shows are usuallymore "neutral" than anything.

    I really don't know what the fuck to do. If it were up to me I'd say Russia deserves to be crushed tbh. But that would obviously lead to an actual, gigantic war.
    If Germans don't want Germany getting involved then they don't get to complain when Ukraine says they are not welcome for a PR photo-op.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  8. #18348
    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    If Germans don't want Germany getting involved then they don't get to complain when Ukraine says they are not welcome for a PR photo-op.
    They are already getting involved because their reliance on Russian gas is financing Putler. In January alone, Germany sent €2.6 billion for oil and gas imports to Russia. Germany is financing Putler's special operation. They aren't the only ones to do that, but they're definitely the main culprit.
    Last edited by Barzotti; 2022-05-01 at 07:07 PM.

  9. #18349
    Quote Originally Posted by KrayZ33 View Post
    We have satire shows making fun of how these weapons are useless as well. Just mentioning it because these kind of shows are usuallymore "neutral" than anything.

    I really don't know what the fuck to do. If it were up to me I'd say Russia deserves to be crushed tbh. But that would obviously lead to an actual, gigantic war.
    The thing is, they are really really not useless.

    There's a whole issue with both deeply misunderstanding these things and also with what they are supposed to be shooting at with them.

    NATO countries have a tendency to mostly rely on missile based air defenses. It's because they just have fucking tons of them. These guns are not outdated. The 35mm Oerlikon has been around since the 50s and its gonna be around for the foreseeable future. Here's the thing, active countermeasures and electronic countermeasures jets and planes and helicopters rely on to defend themselves from missiles, do not work against this thing. The only thing you can try to do is dodge it, and there's no helicopter or anything else in the air armored enough to be able to take a few shots from this thing.

    Theoretically (according to Russian doctrine) a well supported armored advance is supposed to be covered by low flying choppers and jets. This thing will absolutely wreck a helicopter and would scare living shit out of any low flying close air support, because again, when this thing is shooting at you, there's fuckall you can do about it, so just even knowing that this thing might be sitting in a tree line is enough to send the pilots into cold sweats. Your active detection systems will not detect the incoming fire as they would detect a missile and your active and electronic countermeasures won't do shit against dumb bullet, because dumb bullet is dumb.

    These guns also have a veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeery long history of being used to just shoot at shit on the ground. It's not what they were designed for, but dumb massive caliber high velocity bullet has spectacular effects on things like thin skinned vehicles, tree lines, bushes, a brick wall, even light armor or squishy human.

    In an ideal scenario, these would be operated with Stinger teams who uplink with the vehicles radar, so you shoot munitions and missiles at the same thing they are all targeting. But that's the fancy tic-tacs. Here's the reality...The Russians fucking suck at everything. They have fuckall in coordination between their armor and air support. What the Ukrainians would likely used these for, is to cover those artillery ambushes we've been seeing videos of. You know, Russian column trying to advance down some idiotically predictable route, getting their asses pounded by artillery in ambushes...then if they actually tried to call in air support or to hit the Ukrainian artillery positions then these things would come into play.

    Again, these are good weapons and their relative "low tech" status means they are relatively easy to use effectively, especially on the defense. The Ukrainians need these, they were asking for them, they can use them. They will be specially useful to cover those Dutch and American mobile Howitzers they are getting. The only question is whether they will actually fucking get them in a reasonable time frame.
    Last edited by Mihalik; 2022-05-01 at 07:17 PM.

  10. #18350
    The more I look at Germany's reaction since late february, the more I understand Voidwielder claims. Sorry mate.

  11. #18351
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
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    There's chatter that Gerasimov was wounded in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/st...65814781186049
    https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-pol...ns-killed.html
    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...rss&pm_source=

    I don't know how reliable it is, but we'll find out soon enough.

  12. #18352
    Quote Originally Posted by Finlandia WOAT View Post
    They just have a cultural obsession with holidays.
    I see this as more of a dictator thing.

    "I am in control, we will achieve x by y date"
    The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.

  13. #18353
    Legendary! Collegeguy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barzotti View Post
    They are already getting involved because their reliance on Russian gas is financing Putler. In January alone, Germany sent €2.6 billion for oil and gas imports to Russia. Germany is financing Putler's special operation. They aren't the only ones to do that, but they're definitely the main culprit.
    Just wish the Germans would stop pretending. They seem to be full of lies when it comes to Russia and even nuclear power.
    Last edited by Collegeguy; 2022-05-01 at 08:13 PM.

  14. #18354
    Looks like an ammo depot might of when boom in Belgorod.
    https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/sta...47711179460610

  15. #18355
    Quote Originally Posted by Collegeguy View Post
    Just wish the Germans would stop pretending. They seem to full of lies when it comes to Russia and even nuclear power.
    Indeed. It would be at least honest and less insulting if Scholz said at the beginning of the war "we don't give a fuck about Ukraine, Russian energy is way more important for us than human lives and we have no issues financing war crimes, deal with it". I think history will not judge Merkel's legacy kindly in the upcoming years.
    Last edited by Barzotti; 2022-05-01 at 08:10 PM.

  16. #18356
    Quote Originally Posted by Afrospinach View Post
    I see this as more of a dictator thing.

    "I am in control, we will achieve x by y date"
    Sure, but it's not as if he picked the date at random.

    https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...799425?lang=en

  17. #18357
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    Seems Azovstal is getting evacuated:

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/stat...74213728190468

    100 civilians are on their way to Zaporizhzhia
    Amazing that it actually seems to be working, since so many previous human corridors have failed and Putin previously wanting it sealed off so that not even a fly could leave.

    I can see a number of possibilities - one is that Russia is desperate for a quick peace combined with Zelensky's previous statement that peace-talks would end if they were killed; another is that Russia is planning to really bomb it and want to show that it was only soldiers left.

  18. #18358
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Amazing that it actually seems to be working, since so many previous human corridors have failed and Putin previously wanting it sealed off so that not even a fly could leave.

    I can see a number of possibilities - one is that Russia is desperate for a quick peace combined with Zelensky's previous statement that peace-talks would end if they were killed; another is that Russia is planning to really bomb it and want to show that it was only soldiers left.
    Yeah, I'm also somewhat surprised, my cynical mind says: 'The russians must be out of ammo', but then there are UN and Red Cross operatives around so who knows? Frankly if it is option 2 I would be surprised that they let out civilians as the russian army does not care about those, as shown in the last few months. On the other hand, if Azovstal falls and Mariupol IS completely captured then that is an out for the russians.

    One thing I do kinda hope is that this isn't a fluke and that it leads to a more permanent and widerspread cease fire, but that would involve trust and that is in short supply even if this holds, I think we can look into that if and when the remaining 100000 inhabitants of mariupol are evacuated. (as that is also the aim of the UN.)

    I don not think sanction relief is a good idea for anything but the most essential humanitarian reasons.
    Last edited by Iphie; 2022-05-01 at 08:47 PM.

  19. #18359
    Quote Originally Posted by Barzotti View Post
    Indeed. It would be at least honest and less insulting if Scholz said at the beginning of the war "we don't give a fuck about Ukraine, Russian energy is way more important for us than human lives and we have no issues financing war crimes, deal with it". I think history will not judge Merkel's legacy kindly in the upcoming years.
    Eh, while I am not exactly a fan of Scholz, I really don't think it is that bad. Not like they (or Germans at large, who are not exactly happy with the leadership right now) 'do not give a toss' or anything like that.
    Sure, it certainly was a mistake to get that reliant on Russian gas in the first place, I doubt anyone is denying that much. But it is getting slightly annoying that people keep acting like
    a) It would be easy for Germany to just stop using Russian gas, which between costing a ton of jobs and, well, heating especially for the lower income Germans (not like everyone there is some rich snob or something) is a tough call. Much tougher than for many other countries that had an easier time disconnecting from Russia that way.
    b) Germany continuing to buy gas right now even making that much of a difference. Not like Russia will just stop the war tomorrow because less money is coming in to begin with. The sanctions etc are meant to cripple Russia long-term and dissuade them, which is, while not as efficiently, still supported by the slower German disconnect as well.
    c) Financing war crimes is something done exclusively done in this context. Just because Russia moved from "nations that commit war crimes but that we can look away from" to "actual war crimes that we care about" it suddenly matters who buys from them in particular and it is somehow an achievement that Germany moves from buying fossil fuels from Russia to buying it from the Saudis.

    I mean, yes, Germany should do a lot more and Scholtz in particular needs to be more honest and transparent. The German reliance on Russian gas is a strong detriment to the Western effort and a cudgel Russia wields all too eagerly. It is important to keep up the pressure in that regard. But pretending that Germany, and the average German in particular, is somehow uncaring just strikes me as wrong and unhelpful to begin with.

  20. #18360
    Quote Originally Posted by Kiri View Post
    Eh, while I am not exactly a fan of Scholz, I really don't think it is that bad. Not like they (or Germans at large, who are not exactly happy with the leadership right now) 'do not give a toss' or anything like that.
    Sure, it certainly was a mistake to get that reliant on Russian gas in the first place, I doubt anyone is denying that much. But it is getting slightly annoying that people keep acting like
    a) It would be easy for Germany to just stop using Russian gas, which between costing a ton of jobs and, well, heating especially for the lower income Germans (not like everyone there is some rich snob or something) is a tough call. Much tougher than for many other countries that had an easier time disconnecting from Russia that way.
    b) Germany continuing to buy gas right now even making that much of a difference. Not like Russia will just stop the war tomorrow because less money is coming in to begin with. The sanctions etc are meant to cripple Russia long-term and dissuade them, which is, while not as efficiently, still supported by the slower German disconnect as well.
    c) Financing war crimes is something done exclusively done in this context. Just because Russia moved from "nations that commit war crimes but that we can look away from" to "actual war crimes that we care about" it suddenly matters who buys from them in particular and it is somehow an achievement that Germany moves from buying fossil fuels from Russia to buying it from the Saudis.

    I mean, yes, Germany should do a lot more and Scholtz in particular needs to be more honest and transparent. The German reliance on Russian gas is a strong detriment to the Western effort and a cudgel Russia wields all too eagerly. It is important to keep up the pressure in that regard. But pretending that Germany, and the average German in particular, is somehow uncaring just strikes me as wrong and unhelpful to begin with.
    I didn't talk about the average German because I have no idea about what the average German wants or thinks. My rebukes are only aimed at the German leaders since Schröder and more broadly a significant part of the german political class who willingly chose to make Germany extremely reliant on Russia and is basically hands tied. Of course Germany can't realistically stop buying from Russia right now, it's not in their interest. But their leaders could at least show some honesty and transparency instead of playing their hypocritical double faced game.
    Last edited by Barzotti; 2022-05-01 at 09:08 PM.

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