Originally Posted by
Ulmita
Usually I don't start conversations with people that don't know how to have one. These forums have gone to poop since Skroe and Kell left, very boring and uneducated discussions happening nowadays.
But just to take the bait, I'll reply to you:
1. If Russia wasn't a major military power, US / UK will have started the bombing already as they have done (and still do) at so many other countries. All that I've read in this war, is "US didn't proceed with a test of Minuteman 3 to not provoke Russia", "US won't deliver highly lethal equipment (Like the HIMARS extra-long-range missiles) to not provoke Russia", "Unguided 255mm munitions for the artillery to not provoke Russia" etc.
2. Russia currently is fighting against all chances and not only has managed to grab 20% of a foreign country, but also: Is not respecting the 3x attacking/defending rule-ratio, is against foreign mercenaries, NATO's weapons, real time intelligence etc. I can only think of a handful of nations that are capable of doing this (and yes, UK isn't one of them). Russia is doing extremely small gains, but gains nevertheless, and they haven't even mobilized yet...
3. Russia has been warning us of such war for quite some time now and even tried to make the US and NATO to sign legal assurances to avoid this war. Even Merkel said publicly that she blocked Ukraine's ascension to NATO to avoid this freaking pointless war.
4. Yes, their main concern is NATO, yes they are paranoid, NO this DOESN'T justify their war. However, I'll ask you this: What would happen if Ireland or Scotland tried to join CSTO and put some Russian Iskanders in reach of British cities? What would Britain do to them? What would the US do to Canada or Mexico if they tried that? No need to answer this, because we all know how it will end for those nations (hint: bombed in the 19th century). Is it fair that one country can dictate the desire of another? Hell no. Thinking that nothing will happen is pure romantism.
5. I can go on and on, but I am bored.
My question is legit: How does this shity situation stops?, and I asked it out of pure interest to see everyone’s opinion.
We see that sanctions did minimal to deter them:
- Russian economy is actually not doing as bad as EU / US / NATO wished to. This is due to the increased price of hydrocarbons. Also, China and India are buying oil in record amounts. In essence, Russia was condemned and has sanctions from a 20% of the total global population... the rest 80% is still doing business with them.
- Russia, as we speak, is building a new pipeline to China. That means that if EU for any stupid reason decides to sanction their gas, they will just sell more to China.
Sanctions to be effective, we need China, India and other major countries to join them.
Military aid works, but it wont stop the war in the form and magnitude that is given to Ukraine today. We see Russians gaining ground, slowly, but steadily at least in the Dombas region. Ukraine would need:
1. Aircraft
2. A/A weapons
3. Heavy artillery with advanced munitions
4. Helicopters
5. Tanks
to name a few, in VAST AMOUNTS in order to stop them and even more if they want to retake their land back. Another option, is a direct military involvement of NATO countries, meaning boots on the ground of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of NATO troops (assuming that Russia will go into full mobilization), and this will lead most probably to WW3.
Right now, we as European citizens, are feeling a big hit in our financial situation because of inflation and the war. I feel that this war can only go well for Ukraine, if they gain whatever they are trying before December. If the situation continues more than that (which Russia is more than capable of prolonging this for years) we will be looking at ridiculous energy prices, leading to more inflation, leading to more social unrest, leading to the fall of governments. I am pretty sure Putin knows and bets on this.
And thus, my question: Realistically speaking, how can we, as NATO-EU-US, help to end this war?