Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

That makes much more sense, I was responding to Flarelaine who said the russians had lost 25% of ALL their tanks not just those they sent to Ukraine.

Speaking of numbers, I read today that some BTGs can can not even muster 30 soldiers and are still sent into battle. as we know a BTG should have between 600-800 men. (numbers from the MoD of the UK.)

Theoretically, they sent in about 75% of their available military force, so there's not as much difference between 25% of the invasion force and 25% of the total force, but I believe the Pentagon was indeed referencing the latter.

[Corvus]

The 20-30% was of the total prewar active tank force, which stood at around 3300 tanks. 1200 were sent into Ukraine.

Almost 800 have been verified as lost already, so the real number will be higher. If it is 1000, which isn't that unlikely, that is 30% just there. It could easily be higher.

While Russia does have a lot of tanks in storage, all evidence is that they aren't being stored well, which combined with corruption leads to only a very small number actually being in a usable state. There is a reason they were pulling t62s out of storage to use.

[Iphie]

The 20-30% was of the total prewar active tank force, which stood at around 3300 tanks. 1200 were sent into Ukraine.

Almost 800 have been verified as lost already, so the real number will be higher. If it is 1000, which isn't that unlikely, that is 30% just there. It could easily be higher.

While Russia does have a lot of tanks in storage, all evidence is that they aren't being stored well, which combined with corruption leads to only a very small number actually being in a usable state. There is a reason they were pulling t62s out of storage to use.

It occurs to me that there may be a confusion about 'ALL' tanks, I thought Flarelaine meant every single tank russia has on paper, including those in storage, which are most likely not usable any time soon. Whereas it may be that what was meant was out of the ACTIVELY serving tanks. The first number would be significantly higher than the latter.

[YUPPIE]

Putin made a 72 minute long speech today but I can't find the source.

[YUPPIE]

First Putin is an all powerful dictator that nobody will dare deny.

nobody is denying him, though if you mean denying him things.

we're still buying oil more than over, raising the ruble despite claims of it tanking, buying their stolen food

[YUPPIE]

You just said they’d kill him if he backs down in Ukraine. That’s denying. And it’s a flat out lie that the US is buying more Russian oil than ever.

it's not just the US buying their oil.

And yeah if he backs out of Ukraine, he's going to get killed in his own country. What the media doesn't really care to report is the few failed assassination attempts on Putin this year and what those fires they try to deny is from dissent are about.

He has to keep going in Ukraine to keep this "strong man" image going. Without it/backing down, he's going to be exposed for the coward he is to his people and get Ghadaffi'd. Not to mention the losses and sanctions that will mount up when he doesn't get anything from Ukraine. That's why he can only keep going forward until he wins.

And he will very most likely win at this rate. For how much the media wants to deny it, Ukraine is suffering regular massive casualities, losing ground, and Russia is being financed by the aforementioned sales.

AND considering he can absolutely not back down, if all else somehow fails...he has that final card to seize victory.

[YUPPIE]

The assassination attempts were BECAUSE he won’t back down in Ukraine.

Nah. I don't buy into the theory politicians in Russia going against the Ukraine War. Most of them support him there despite how people want to believe such is not the case. The odd ones out like Navalny are a minority to the USSR warmongers. They follow him out of a desire for glory and conquest so if he loses/surrenders what they all bet on, then it's easy to piece together why he would be screwed yeah?

[szechuan]

You don't build a bridge in two days, I'm sure this was already underway for a while, so I doubt the sanctions really played a part.

Yet they'll use it to alleviate western sanctions

“Today our cooperation between Russia and China are rising,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said, according to an official English translation carried by Russian state broadcaster RT.

“Trade over the first half of this year has been [in the tens of billions of U.S. dollars] and we can expect new records in upcoming months, which is a testament to the great cooperation between our two nations,” Xi said.

The Chinese leader was speaking via video at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum’s plenary session, which Russian President Vladimir Putin opened with a speech over an hour long.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/17/chin...ng-months.html

[Kaleredar]

Yet they'll use it to alleviate western sanctions

China will use it to enrich themselves. If western sanctions are "lessened," that's a secondary effect. I don't think China looks too highly on Russia's chances (I linked an article not long ago from the former PRC's ambassador to the Ukraine and other eastern European counties basically saying that Russia fucked this thing up from the start, their situation is only getting worse, and that Russia will suffer long term damage because of it that will progressively set them further and further back in comparison to the rest of the world) but they DO look highly on Russia becoming more and more dependent on them, with Russia convinced that it's some sort of " beneficent alliance."

Even if it does weaken the effect of the sanctions, it doesn't replace the military equipment, hardware, and personnel lost... either the "personnel" willingly fleeing to other countries and brain draining Russia, or the personnel who... you know, exploded.

[Gaidax]

Russia convinced that it's some sort of " beneficent alliance."

Russia isn't convinced of shit. They just put up a brave front and some hopium for internal consumption.

Kremlin full knows what China is and that it's a deal with a devil, but what choice do they have. With the situation persisting and Russia's general state of progress and modern manufacturing capabilities it will be an increasingly disproportionate partnership and China will exploit that to the fullest, while being careful enough to not break things with West over it.

This is why after this is over you can see Putin or whoever comes after him would try to do all they can to somehow re-establish ties with West, simply because relying on China, Iran, India and then some pariah states is not a great long term strategy.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Nah. I don't buy into the theory politicians in Russia going against the Ukraine War. Most of them support him there despite how people want to believe such is not the case. The odd ones out like Navalny are a minority to the USSR warmongers. They follow him out of a desire for glory and conquest so if he loses/surrenders what they all bet on, then it's easy to piece together why he would be screwed yeah?

Putin will be assassinated if he backs out of Ukraine

Assassination attempts have been made on Putin despite him NOT backing out of Ukraine

Why are they trying to kill him if he's giving them exactly what they want?

Your "logic" is, as always, based on fallacious reasoning.

[PhaelixWW]

we're still buying oil more than over

No, we're really not.

Biden signed an EO banning the import of Russian oil products back in March.

Congress passed it as a law a month later, making it even more difficult to undo.


As far as oil imports in general, the US has actually imported less in recent years:




And the world as a whole is buying a heck of a lot less Russian oil products these days.

And it's not like Russian oil prices are as high as you think, either. They're lagging behind other oil prices these days, for obvious reasons. Russian ESPO is actually going for less than it was prior to the invasion, and even Sokol has dropped in value relative to similar products from other nations, too.

[Kaleredar]

Russia isn't convinced of shit. They just put up a brave front and some hopium for internal consumption.

Perhaps I should have phrased it that way; the people of Russia might be convinced that they've gained some staunch ally. Shalcker seemed to like bandying about that notion, and when I posted the article I mentioned where a Chinese official said that Russia had basically already lost he completely ignored both the post and the article in it, which means I must have struck some kind of nerve with his narrative.

Though of course I don't know if his personal deluded hopes, real or imagined, are reflective of the people of Russia either. I linked further articles that had interviewed various people in Russia about their country's worsening supply chain and economic issues and they all seemed pretty bleak on the outlook.

[Shalcker]

Putin made a 72 minute long speech today but I can't find the source.

You know you can just go to kremlin.ru ?

Any major speeches - and SPIEF one certainly qualifies - end up there with an English translation.

- - - Updated - - -

Perhaps I should have phrased it that way; the people of Russia might be convinced that they've gained some staunch ally. Shalcker seemed to like bandying about that notion, and when I posted the article I mentioned where a Chinese official said that Russia had basically already lost he completely ignored both the post and the article in it, which means I must have struck some kind of nerve with his narrative.

Chinese are in need of allies given things like this:
Beijing will "not hesitate to start a war" if Taiwan declares independence, China's defence minister warned his US counterpart Friday
...and US and broad "West" certainly gives every indication that they support Taiwanese independence.

But until it actually happens they are content in avoiding flashy moves:
Foreign Policy: Why China Threads the Needle on Ukraine / Beijing is confident in the United States’ decline and unwilling to rock the boat.
---
... barring a collapse of the Putin regime, even a diminished Russia will remain an asset in China’s resistance to U.S. hegemony. China is not about to throw away its main strategic partner.

But neither does China want Putin to drag it into a premature confrontation with the West. China prefers to let history take its predetermined course, with China gradually rising and the United States gradually declining, without the United States taking flight and adopting an outright containment policy toward China.
---

China doesn't provide arms to Russia at the moment; Russia would have no qualms providing arms to China in future Taiwan conflict thought after all that happened in Ukraine.

Though of course I don't know if his personal deluded hopes, real or imagined, are reflective of the people of Russia either. I linked further articles that had interviewed various people in Russia about their country's worsening supply chain and economic issues and they all seemed pretty bleak on the outlook.

Old opportunities close, new opportunities open. Russians love whining about hardships; but when push comes to shove they deal with them.

Given how mismanaged West have proven itself to be - with politicians writing sanction checks they are clearly unable to actually sustain - it might be for the better.

Euro zone trade deficit almost doubles in April
===
BRUSSELS, June 15 (Reuters) - The euro zone's trade deficit almost doubled in April from the previous month after an already record expansion in March, and industrial production increased over the same period on the month, official data showed on Wednesday.

The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said the 19 countries sharing the euro recorded a trade deficit, unadjusted for seasonal swings, of 32.4 billion euros in April compared with a 16.4 billion euro deficit in March. In April 2021 there was a surplus of 14.9 billion euros.

Adjusted for seasonal swings, the euro zone trade gap was 31.7 billion euros.

The unadjusted value of imports in April rocketed by 39.8% year-on-year, Eurostat said, while the value of exports rose only 15.7%.

The EU's trade deficit with Russia - its main energy supplier - more than quadrupled to 62.6 billion euros in the first quarter from 14.7 billion in the same period of 2021.

The change in the value of EU energy imports was the most spectacular, with the deficit in energy trade almost tripling to 183.6 billion euros in the first four months of the year compared to the same period in 2021.

The trade gap with China, Europe's biggest trading partner, almost doubled to 122 billion euros in the January-April period from 65.8 billion a year earlier.

The trade deficit with Norway, another large energy supplier, surged to 23.9 billion euros in the first quarter from 500 million euros in the same period of last year.

Industrial production in the 19 euro zone countries increased 0.4% month-on-month, but saw a 2% year-on-year decline.

Economist polled by Reuters had expected a 0.5% monthly rise, and a 1.1% annual drop.
===
Consistently performing much worse then expected...

Inflation is still soaring in EU and US; some of Baltics are already ahead of Russia.

Meanwhile Russia currently gets minor deflation and ruble still strengthens despite key rate being brought down to pre-war level - with focus switching from "limit damage" to "promote growth". At least economic management in Russia seems to be on point.

[Belize]

Oh boy, here we go

[Shalcker]

WaPo: Russia’s gas cuts to Europe in summer could bring a bitter winter
====
The cuts from Russia are not an immediate threat to consumers, analysts say, but could portend significant gas shortages later in the year. Many European nations use the slower summer months to stockpile gas for winter, when energy demand is higher.

The European Union last month set a target for member states to make sure gas storage facilities are 80 percent full by Nov. 1. They are currently 52 percent full, according to global financial services company ING.

“In the worst case, it would require some form of gas rationing to maintain supply for essential industries and services,” Henning Gloystein, an energy analyst at the political risk firm Eurasia Group, wrote in an emailed note.

Some countries, including Germany and Italy, have already considered compulsory restrictions on energy consumption. The International Energy Agency also called on leaders to draw up plans for energy rationing.

But such measures are likely to prove unpopular as inflation drives up consumer prices, putting further pressure on governments. For Moscow, this all translates to significant geopolitical leverage.

“Our product, our rules,” Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said this past week when asked about the shutdown. “We don’t play by rules we didn’t create.”

The company has said that the slowdown is related to maintenance on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which runs from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea. It accounts for about 40 percent of Russian gas imports to Europe.

Russian officials have pointed to a gas-pumping turbine produced by German firm Siemens Energy that was sent to Montreal for maintenance. Siemens Energy said this past week that Canadian sanctions on Russia have delayed its return.

Gazprom announced Tuesday that it was cutting gas via Nord Stream by 40 percent as a result. The pipeline is also scheduled for its annual summer maintenance for 10 days in July.

German grid data Friday showed that gas flows had fallen to 671.4 gigawatt-hours per day, according to Gloystein’s note — the lowest ever recorded outside of times when the pipeline was completely shut off.
...
the global energy market remains volatile. A fire and explosion this month at the liquefied natural gas terminal in Freeport, Tex., one of the largest in the United States, has knocked it offline for 90 days.

“The disruptions we are seeing now suggest the potential for a prolonged period of significantly reduced flows,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Think, the company’s economic analysis arm, wrote in a note Friday.

Also in recent days, the German Association of Towns and Municipalities called for changes to regulations to make it easier to save energy. Landlords of rented apartments are currently obliged to ensure a temperature of at least 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit).

But association head Gerd Landsberg told German daily Rheinische Post that this must be changed.

“Even an apartment with a temperature of 18 or 19 degrees Celsius (64 to 66 degrees Fahrenheit) can be lived in comfortably. And everyone should be able to support this small sacrifice,” Landsberg said.

In his Instagram post, Habeck, the German economy minister, reiterated the message for citizens that the government has been driving home in recent weeks: reduce consumption as much as possible.

“Now is the time to do so,” he said. “Every kilowatt hour helps in this situation.”

====
Freeport meanwhile changed their damage assessment to "return to operations somewhere in December".

Rising summer heatwaves also increases gas consumption - further threatening winter gas levels.

...though there is still NS2, which is perfectly serviceable.

[Specialka]

WaPo: Russia’s gas cuts to Europe in summer could bring a bitter winter
====
The cuts from Russia are not an immediate threat to consumers, analysts say, but could portend significant gas shortages later in the year. Many European nations use the slower summer months to stockpile gas for winter, when energy demand is higher.

The European Union last month set a target for member states to make sure gas storage facilities are 80 percent full by Nov. 1. They are currently 52 percent full, according to global financial services company ING.

“In the worst case, it would require some form of gas rationing to maintain supply for essential industries and services,” Henning Gloystein, an energy analyst at the political risk firm Eurasia Group, wrote in an emailed note.

Some countries, including Germany and Italy, have already considered compulsory restrictions on energy consumption. The International Energy Agency also called on leaders to draw up plans for energy rationing.

But such measures are likely to prove unpopular as inflation drives up consumer prices, putting further pressure on governments. For Moscow, this all translates to significant geopolitical leverage.

“Our product, our rules,” Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said this past week when asked about the shutdown. “We don’t play by rules we didn’t create.”

The company has said that the slowdown is related to maintenance on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which runs from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea. It accounts for about 40 percent of Russian gas imports to Europe.

Russian officials have pointed to a gas-pumping turbine produced by German firm Siemens Energy that was sent to Montreal for maintenance. Siemens Energy said this past week that Canadian sanctions on Russia have delayed its return.

Gazprom announced Tuesday that it was cutting gas via Nord Stream by 40 percent as a result. The pipeline is also scheduled for its annual summer maintenance for 10 days in July.

German grid data Friday showed that gas flows had fallen to 671.4 gigawatt-hours per day, according to Gloystein’s note — the lowest ever recorded outside of times when the pipeline was completely shut off.
...
the global energy market remains volatile. A fire and explosion this month at the liquefied natural gas terminal in Freeport, Tex., one of the largest in the United States, has knocked it offline for 90 days.

“The disruptions we are seeing now suggest the potential for a prolonged period of significantly reduced flows,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Think, the company’s economic analysis arm, wrote in a note Friday.

Also in recent days, the German Association of Towns and Municipalities called for changes to regulations to make it easier to save energy. Landlords of rented apartments are currently obliged to ensure a temperature of at least 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit).

But association head Gerd Landsberg told German daily Rheinische Post that this must be changed.

“Even an apartment with a temperature of 18 or 19 degrees Celsius (64 to 66 degrees Fahrenheit) can be lived in comfortably. And everyone should be able to support this small sacrifice,” Landsberg said.

In his Instagram post, Habeck, the German economy minister, reiterated the message for citizens that the government has been driving home in recent weeks: reduce consumption as much as possible.

“Now is the time to do so,” he said. “Every kilowatt hour helps in this situation.”

====
Freeport meanwhile changed their damage assessment to "return to operations somewhere in December".

Rising summer heatwaves also increases gas consumption - further threatening winter gas levels.

...though there is still NS2, which is perfectly serviceable.

Still shilling for the invasion army that likes to bombard civilians ?

[Forogil]

Still shilling for the invasion army that likes to bombard civilians ?

Well, so far Russia haven't really begun drafting people in Russia itself, but only in occupied territories.

That's how much Russia cares for the people of the Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine - they are allowing them to die gloriously killing their brethren.

[Iphie]

Well, so far Russia haven't really begun drafting people in Russia itself, but only in occupied territories.

That's how much Russia cares for the people of the Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine - they are allowing them to die gloriously killing their brethren.

Not only that, but apparently recently the leaders of the DPR had a phone call with the Kremlin where they asked for more support, the response was (paraphrased): not our responsibility, go beg to the ministery of defence if you don't like it.

Like, by now they should be understanding that the are nothing but pawns to the russians...right?

[Shalcker]

Still shilling for the invasion army that likes to bombard civilians ?

We can discuss who bombards whom in PMs if you like.

But economic war should be more important to you - as it is going to impact you (and me) directly while bombs are unlikely to fly into either of our homes.