Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Kaleredar]

Everyone is going to take hits - economic wars in modern globalized markets are not going to be one-sided. And EU so far is doing much worse then projected.

Worst-case for EU is:
- people freeze (even reduction of "allowed temperatures" can bring hits to health)
- getting all "alternative" suppliers lined up and building local LNG hubs will take at least several years, and actually replacing entire Russian production (rather then shifting flows around) would need trillions in investments
- industries collapse (some already do due to prices; more will with actual physical shortages)
- competitiveness of European goods that were buoyed by cheap Russian energy is lost forever (LNG will forever have higher price then pipe gas, and alternative pipe options are rather limited), making Europe inferior option to Asian - or American - producers.

vs

Russia has to:
- find new buyers of oil and gas that is going to be in short supply for next decade - doesn't seem to be a real problem; volumes drop, but price increases easily make up for it so far... could change if production would increase, but previous underinvestment all around the world makes that very unlikely, and "green/renewable future" beliefs are still strong
- find new suppliers of consumer and industrial electronics - or learn to produce them themselves
- industries that relied on imports will have to use lower-volume 'grey' schemes
There is enough money brought in to actually fuel internal investments in next decade, and all "basic needs" - food and energy - are not in danger of not being met (it isn't ever going to be "food for oil" like with late USSR).

You claim that all of these replacement suppliers will be unfindable for Europe, and that pivoting their energy or building new infrastructure will take far, far too long... but that Russia can make up for its dearth of, what was it... oh, yeah the lack of replacement equipment for the war it's currently fighting, like it's no problem despite the financial collapse occurring, drain of both qualified individuals and wealthy individuals as they flee Russia, alienation by the rest of the world, and their lack of infrastructure to create necessary things like microchips and communications equipment that they've effectively been shut out of... but no, Russia will take its shrinking economy and rally and build these things like it's nothing, in no time, despite the growing lack of every type of capitol required to do so- financial, resource, and human, while the 27 countries in the EU will simply founder and be utterly unable to do anything.

You like tossing around the word "hopium." Perhaps you should look in the mirror about who's using it the most, here. Every single thing you claim is a "deathblow" for Europe is actively happening in Russia, it's just that Europe 1) isn't fighting a war and 2) isn't sealed off from the rest of the world. And yet you look at that situation... exclusively, it seems, because China and a few other countries are... buying your oil, because you're the cheap, exploitable source of it?

[Shalcker]

Can't beat 20% monthly inflation

Russian inflation is below that.

[Forogil]

Those EU predictions will not necessarily stop getting revised down as European situation worsens... another revision down with next quarter wouldn't be surprising.

Vague possibilities, you could also say that Morgan Stanley have a lower estimate - https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/...22-global-gdp/ - and "forget" to mention that their prediction is 2.6% (down from 2.7% by EU).

The Russian predictions may also be revised downward - and remember those were Russian predictions, whereas Morgan Stanley predict Russian economy declining by 12% compared to 8% by Russian predictions.

[Specialka]

Russian inflation is below that.

Any source to prove it ? (any independant source obviously)

- - - Updated - - -

Vague possibilities, you could also say that Morgan Stanley have a lower estimate - https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/...22-global-gdp/ - and "forget" to mention that their prediction is 2.6% (down from 2.7% by EU).

The Russian predictions may also be revised downward - and remember those were Russian predictions, whereas Morgan Stanley predict Russian economy declining by 12% compared to 8% by Russian predictions.

Let's not forget that Russia lie, raid, pillage, rape and kill when they feel like it.

[Shalcker]

You claim that all of these replacement suppliers will be unfindable for Europe, and that pivoting their energy or building new infrastructure will take far, far too long...

Few years and trillions of investments isn't that long for replacing supplier that built networks into your markets for many decades - some from Soviet times.

No new supplier is going to beat previous logistics though.

but that Russia can make up for its dearth of, what was it... oh, yeah the lack of replacement equipment for the war it's currently fighting,

There is enough already made for years of war.

like it's no problem despite the financial collapse occurring

Which financial collapse? Russia is running record trade surplus...

drain of both qualified individuals and wealthy individuals as they flee Russia

Are you of opinion that any billionaire/millionaire is net positive just because he resides in your country?
80% of those "qualified individuals" that fled in first few months reportedly already returned.

alienation by the rest of the world

Western world only so far.

and their lack of infrastructure to create necessary things like microchips and communications equipment that they've effectively been shut out of

It's longer-term goal but even this industry isn't impossible to build up/advance given the obvious need.

but no, Russia will take its shrinking economy and rally and build these things like it's nothing, in no time, despite the growing lack of every type of capitol required to do so- financial, resource, and human, while the 27 countries in the EU will simply founder and be utterly unable to do anything.

It'll take time and effort. But the capital to do it is still pouring into Russia right now, and rainy-day "sovereign wealth funds" are already being tapped to that end.

EU seems to be utterly unable to predict obvious side-effects of their own sanctions. Maybe it'll grow wiser with time, but their options are actually quite limited given that they don't want to get into 20-year supply deals like Qatar offers.

[Santti]

Remember, almost 80% of all Russian households have running water!

Clearly the pinnacle of civilization.

Woah... could they have electricity too, dare we dream!?

[Shalcker]

Any source to prove it ? (any independant source obviously)

Sure, it's 17.11% YoY as of May 2022

Meanwhile Estonia hit 20%.

[Shalcker]

Meanwhile, from your own source.

#1 out of 1? They don't seem to have anyone else for 2022.

Current winner for #1 inflation is definitely Turkey.

[Shalcker]

1 of 195. Nice try though.

Not sure where you're looking, but Turkish inflation of 73.5% definitely would win in any "legit" comparison.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Not sure where you're looking, but Turkish inflation of 73.5% definitely would win in any "legit" comparison.

I'm not sure that "our inflation is better than Turkey" is the flex you think it is. Why not boast about it being better than Zimbabwe while you're at it?

[Shalcker]

I'm not sure that "our inflation is better than Turkey" is the flex you think it is. Why not boast about it being better than Zimbabwe while you're at it?

EU member Estonia already does worse.

Some other EU members might follow if situation will continue to deteriorate.

[Kaleredar]

Few years and trillions of investments isn't that long for replacing supplier that built networks into your markets for many decades - some from Soviet times.

No new supplier is going to beat previous logistics though.

There is enough already made for years of war.

Then they sure are running through that at an alarming rate. Someone previously linked that Russia had already run through a startling large percentage of its available tanks.

And I think it's disingenuous to say "we've had rusting surplus sitting around for years" equates to "we have years of stockpiles ready."

And, of course, digging further and further back into more and more obsolete technology is not the same as "we can replace the equipment we've lost."

Which financial collapse? Russia is running record trade surplus...

And is suffering enormous inflation as its economy is expected to contract by decades and slide into a brutal recession.

Again, you seem to think "Russia's future looks grim" can be balanced out by "but oil."

Because ultimately both of those things can be true. Russia can have a high trade surplus... and still have its economy shit the bed. In fact, that's what's actively happening.

Are you of opinion that any billionaire/millionaire is net positive just because he resides in your country?

Seeing as it's extremely difficult for them to trade that money in and out of Russia in any meaningful way, and they're taking the money with them...

80% of those "qualified individuals" that fled in first few months reportedly already returned.

Oh, yes, I'm sure "80%" of them just decided to dip out and then come running right back. A quick google search on this reveals nothing to support this notion.

Russia isn't known for making bold outrageous lies when it suits them, after all. Like lying about how they're undergoing a "peace operation" in a neighboring country to rid them of Naizs or CIA chemical plants, or that how an irreplaceable warship sunk by Ukrainians sunk due to a storm and instead of almost the entire crew perishing only one person died.

Don't worry, the United States will happily accept Russia's most eminent experts.

Western world only so far.

So about 2/3 to 3/4 of the world's GDP.

It's longer-term goal but even this industry isn't impossible to build up/advance given the obvious need.

And in the short term?

The rest of the world isn't waiting around for Russia. It's going to move on. And that's ultimately the problem that everyone else has pointed out... the US, the EU, your bestest friend and pal in the world China... You're taking an enormous shot in the face to cripple yourself economically, and even if you're able to eventually dig yourself out of the hole you blew at your own feet... you're going to be climbing back out of it into a place the rest of the world left far behind.

And for what? To eventually not get Ukraine?

I mean, I suppose you could say you're in a better place than Ukraine, pending some sort of Marshall plan levied by the western world to rebuild a shining new Ukraine on your doorstep... but like "hah look at Russia, we're in a better place than Ukraine is... I mean, we're in a worse spot than we were before, and in a worse spot than any other major country in the world, but we're STILL BETTER THAN UKRAINE!" is a really, really bad way to run the future prospects of a country.

It'll take time and effort. But the capital to do it is still pouring into Russia right now, and rainy-day "sovereign wealth funds" are already being tapped to that end.

EU seems to be utterly unable to predict obvious side-effects of their own sanctions. Maybe it'll grow wiser with time, but their options are actually quite limited given that they don't want to get into 20-year supply deals like Qatar offers.

The EU is actively working on plans to alleviate their reliance on Russia. Again, you go on and on about the "immediate pain the EU/the west/NATO will suffer" whilst ignoring that pain happening to Russia right now. You assume that Russia in its pariah state will overcome these challenges... or somehow be ultimately hurt less by them... than the entire rest of the world, despite the rest of the world's ability to pivot around Russia to... any other country in the world.

Russia is trying to be more like the USSR, but they're doing so by becoming an alienated nation of scarcity, economic trouble and authoritarianism, instead of the global superpower they dream of being.

And as for how the USSR fared... people were fleeing over that wall in Germany in a single direction. Remember that. Oh, and the USSR doesn't exist anymore, whereas the USA and the rest of Europe does. That's probably worth noting to.

[PhaelixWW]

Some other EU members might follow if situation will continue to deteriorate.

It won't.

At least not as quickly as it will for Russia.

[jonnysensible]

estonia is still going to be doing better than Kaliningrad by next week oooof

[Zaydin]

estonia is still going to be doing better than Kaliningrad by next week oooof

What's going on?

[postman1782]

We can discuss who bombards whom in PMs if you like.

But economic war should be more important to you - as it is going to impact you (and me) directly while bombs are unlikely to fly into either of our homes.

No thanks, fucking turn Russia into the Dark Ages again. And do it here, don't hide telling lies like you want to, because the world needs to see you shilling for a murderous dictator.

[YUPPIE]

Putin will be assassinated if he backs out of Ukraine

Assassination attempts have been made on Putin despite him NOT backing out of Ukraine

Why are they trying to kill him if he's giving them exactly what they want?

Your "logic" is, as always, based on fallacious reasoning.

i mean i did say not everyone was with him in a previous post, but they're a minority. The difference is if putin backs out of ukraine, he won't be able to control the *overwhelming* amount of dissent then, see? Right now he's in control.

All his cronies, shills amongst the average populace, and mob connections are staking his victory and their chips on Ukraine's destruction/conquest.

[Corvus]

What's going on?

Lithuania has banned the transportation of sanctioned goods via train between Russia and Kaliningrad. It means 40-50% of imports and exports to the enclave are now gone. Yeah, that is going to have some serious economic effects.

- - - Updated - - -

Kazakhstan was already at the top of the hit list for the next target after Ukraine but they are certainly doing their best to remain there. Not only did they refuse to acknowledge the separatists republics while at Pootie's discount economic forum, but now Tokayev, the president, has had some choice words to say in an interview on Russian state TV.

Basically he has said that Russia seems to think its troops saved them during the protests earlier in the year and that it is now obliged to serve Russia and kiss its feet, but that is far from reality. They don't owe Russia anything and the CSTO isn't Pootie's private army.

Of course there isn't much Russia can do. Not only is their army going down the toilet (the only time many of them will get to experience one), but China most definitely sees Khazakhstan in their sphere of influence and Russia can not afford to offend their soon to be masters.

[Blur4stuff]

Russia could have been the best country on Earth with the right choices made. It could have been so different. There was no need for it to become what it has.

[Poopymonster]

Gonna repeat something I posted years ago about Putin. With the amount of power and wealth he's taken, Russia could have been the best country on Earth with the right choices made. It could have been so different. There was no need for it to become what it has. It's so fucking sad.

...so what you're saying is "Things could have been good but a human got involved".

It's a tale as old as time
Song as old as rhyme.
̶A̶l̶t̶a̶r̶ ̶b̶o̶y̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶e̶s̶t̶.̶