Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Kallisto]

so I received several outlandish headlines claiming stories of Putin's granddaughter getting pregnant and sanctions for Putin's family abroad.

It made me realize he has family abroad, living in Western states, under relatively non-confidential or obscure profiles

why haven't we evicted them all (granted, they have tried to deport them) or, you know...

His only granddaughter is 4 or 5. Stop getting your news on 4chan.

[PhaelixWW]

Even with inflation. You can check.

Well, Russian ESPO last year was 74.31. This year it's 79.45. That's a 7% increase. Inflation is over 17%.

So no.




Seaborne cude is also being sold in higher volume... but for less revenue.

Bloomberg: Russia’s Crude Oil Revenues Take a Hit Even as Exports Swell

Selling less for more profit while Western costs pile up? Looks like more of a win to me.

That's because you fail to see the truth, tovarisch.

Oil and gas aren't sanctioned at the moment; even Europe still buys them.

But most of the rest of your economy is being hit by sanctions, so costs are mounting. Costs that you can no longer count on being covered by oil exports as much as you're used to.

If you believe Ukrainians. And if you believe Russians then Ukrainian forces lose x10 more (in match to Ukrainian claims of having x10 less artillery).

I believe the US/UK analysts, actually.

[YUPPIE]

the big headline today is Russia violated Estonia's airspace now in what's deemed "extremely provocative"

NATO member Estonia said Tuesday that a Russian border guard helicopter violated the airspace of the Baltic nation over the weekend, and Russia’s ambassador was summoned and given a note over the incident.

Estonia’s military said in a statement that the Russian MI-8 helicopter entered the country’s airspace in southeastern Estonia in the Koidula area - not far from the Russian city of Pskov - without permission on Saturday evening.

The helicopter was in Estonia’s airspace for almost two minutes, Estonia’s military said, adding that it hadn’t presented a flight plan, had its transponder switched off and failed to maintain radio contact with Estonian Air Navigation Services.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/w...nia-s-airspace
https://news.sky.com/story/estonia-s...-move-12638006

THEN SHOOT IT DOWN IF IT'S IN VIOLATION OF LAW

[Corvus]

I believe the US/UK analysts, actually.

Anyone who takes anything Russia claims as truth needs a reality check, especially given Russia has already claimed to have shot down 300% of the Ukrainian airforce. And Ukraine loosing 10x as much stuff as Russia? Thats some serious copium. Verified losses for Russia are, among other things around 800 tanks, over 1000 trucks, 50 helicopters, 900 IFVs. Someone seriously thinks Ukraine had, let alone lost 8000 tanks, 10,000 trucks, 500 helicopters and 9000 IFVs?

[PhaelixWW]

Anyone who takes anything Russia claims as truth needs a reality check, especially given Russia has already claimed to have shot down 300% of the Ukrainian airforce. And Ukraine loosing 10x as much stuff as Russia? Thats some serious copium. Verified losses for Russia are, among other things around 800 tanks, over 1000 trucks, 50 helicopters, 900 IFVs. Someone seriously thinks Ukraine had, let alone lost 8000 tanks, 10,000 trucks, 500 helicopters and 9000 IFVs?

So, yeah, Oryx has listed losses of:

Russia - 4375, of which: destroyed: 2614, damaged: 84, abandoned: 322, captured: 1355
Ukraine - 1184, of which: destroyed: 577, damaged: 28, abandoned: 36, captured: 543

Sure, we're more likely to see evidence of destroyed Russian equipment, but... c'mon. That Russian propaganda is str0nk, and a certain poster is ladling it up.

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the big headline today is Russia violated Estonia's airspace now in what's deemed "extremely provocative"

We've covered this before. A violation of airspace is not a death sentence. We're not at war, nor do we wish to be.

Stop salivating over a possible WW3.

[Mihalik]

Anyone who takes anything Russia claims as truth needs a reality check, especially given Russia has already claimed to have shot down 300% of the Ukrainian airforce. And Ukraine loosing 10x as much stuff as Russia? Thats some serious copium. Verified losses for Russia are, among other things around 800 tanks, over 1000 trucks, 50 helicopters, 900 IFVs. Someone seriously thinks Ukraine had, let alone lost 8000 tanks, 10,000 trucks, 500 helicopters and 9000 IFVs?

Russia has destroyed the entire NATO arsenal in Ukraine.

And has sunk like 5 full carrier groups.

/s

[YUPPIE]

State Department warns Russia: Attack on Lithuania is attack on US

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...lithuania-nato

"Lithuania is a member of the NATO alliance,” State Department spokesman Ned Price emphasized. ”We stand by the commitments that we have made to the NATO alliance. That includes, of course, a commitment to Article 5: That is the bedrock of the NATO alliance."

so yes, to the doubts a few pages ago about whether NATO would invoke Article 5, they will

[MCMLXXXII]

State Department warns Russia: Attack on Lithuania is attack on US

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...lithuania-nato

"Lithuania is a member of the NATO alliance,” State Department spokesman Ned Price emphasized. ”We stand by the commitments that we have made to the NATO alliance. That includes, of course, a commitment to Article 5: That is the bedrock of the NATO alliance."

so yes, to the doubts a few pages ago about whether NATO would invoke Article 5, they will

The only one doubting it would invoke art 5 was waffles and while he is not as crazy as you are, he sure is the king of bad takes.
Russia also knows it would invoke art 5 so no matter how much they huff and puff they will steer clear from it.
And how the hell do 4 year olds get pregnant?

[YUPPIE]

And how the hell do 4 year olds get pregnant?

yeah that, my bad in "granddaughter" but I meant whoever this is:

MAY 29th, 2022:

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has long sought to shield his family and children from the public eye, shrouding their identities and whereabouts in secrecy even before the West began seeking to sanction them.

Now, new details have emerged about the personal life of one of his two identified daughters thanks to a joint investigation published Thursday by the Russian news outlet Important Stories and the German news site Der Spiegel.

The outlets reported that they obtained flight records showing that Katerina Tikhonova, 35, flew more than 50 times to Munich from 2017 to 2019.

Their findings also suggest that Tikhonova, thought to be Putin's youngest daughter, is in a serious, long-term relationship with Igor Zelensky, a 52-year-old Russian former ballet star who stepped down as Munich's state ballet director in April.

Tikhonova would travel between Moscow and Munich on chartered flights paid for by the state, and with members of Putin's presidential security service, Important Stories reported, citing flight logs and a passenger list.

The same list and several passport scans also indicated that Tikhonova and Zelensky had a daughter born in 2017 — at about the time when Tikhonova split from her husband, the Russian businessman Kirill Shamalov.

Important Stories said it obtained the passport scans through an email sent between Tikhonova's bodyguard, who booked the tickets, and Russia's presidential security agency.

The outlets did not name the couple's daughter but wrote that part of her name is Igorevna, indicating it was derived from Zelensky's first name.

The passenger list, which was for a flight on December 9, 2019, showed that Tikhonova and Zelensky landed in Moscow's Vnukovo airport with an entourage of nannies and presidential security, along with their apparent 2-year-old daughter and a piano teacher, Important Stories reported.

At about this time, Tikhonova seemingly decided to move to Munich, according to a letter in her bodyguard's archives, per the outlet. According to Important Stories, an officer in Russia's presidential security services also received an email in October 2019 titled "Moving to Germany."

Der Spiegel reported that when it approached Zelensky's residential address in Munich, it found only his ex-wife, the former ballet dancer Yana Serebriakova, who refused to answer its questions.

Zelensky became the artistic director of Munich's Bavarian State Ballet in 2016 but stepped down April 4, citing private family circumstances. According to Serge Dorny, the managing director of the Bavarian State Opera, Zelensky was asked to leave for failing to condemn the war in Ukraine publicly.

The new details surrounding Tikhonova's penchant for travel to Germany may raise awkward questions for Putin, who has condemned members of the Russian elite who have remained in the West as "scum and traitors."

Tikhonova, a former acrobatic dancer, now runs a startup incubator worth $1.7 billion at Moscow State University. In April, the US Treasury Department identified her as one of Putin's daughters as part of the West's sanctions on Russia.

Another of Putin's daughters identified by the US is Maria Vorontsova, a 37-year-old pediatric endocrinologist and genetics researcher. She is listed as a leading researcher at the Endocrinology Research Center in Moscow. Its website says she is also the deputy chairman of the Russian Society of Young Endocrinologists.

Der Spiegel and Important Stories reported that the whereabouts of Tikhonova, Zelensky, and their purported daughter were unknown."
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so the gist of it is he not only has family abroad but is trying to hide them. Evidently it's pretty ineffective if our intelligence agencies know this much. Anyways I can't advocate the worst here despite what Putin has done to foreign officials or Kremlin insiders that displeased him so all I'll say is that it's just surprised no one's done more to sanction or evict them.

[Fantomen]

I think it is worth seeing all sides of propaganda, Western and Russian, and note yourself where they lie and where they are later proven to be right.

Remember how you denied the "green men" was Russian soldier, and later acknowledged that you did lie for the Russian cause, after Putin did start to decorate the Russian soldier for there work in Ukraine.

[Corvus]

And for those saying sanctions aren't working, this comes from people with Russia. Professors and the like.

Russia is massively dependent on imports from the US and EU. 67% of its medicines are imported and of those 'made in Russia', 80-85% of the ingredients are imported as well. Imports in the auto parts market compose 95%; games and toys 92%; shoes 87%; telecommunications equipment 86%; clothing 82%; perfumes, cosmetics and detergents 57%, and so on. Russia doesn't even produce its own nails. The collapse in new car sales is even worse than it was in the 98 crisis.

[MCMLXXXII]

And for those saying sanctions aren't working, this comes from people with Russia. Professors and the like.

Russia is massively dependent on imports from the US and EU. 67% of its medicines are imported and of those 'made in Russia', 80-85% of the ingredients are imported as well. Imports in the auto parts market compose 95%; games and toys 92%; shoes 87%; telecommunications equipment 86%; clothing 82%; perfumes, cosmetics and detergents 57%, and so on. Russia doesn't even produce its own nails. The collapse in new car sales is even worse than it was in the 98 crisis.

It's all accordink to plan. West suffer more than we do. Skout's honor comrade.

[YUPPIE]

And for those saying sanctions aren't working

I ONLY believe they are ineffective or not working because Putin is still alive and in power. If they were as horribly effective as you claim, he would be lynched to pieces by now even among his cronies. But the fact he's still going and Russia is still going strong

The Russian ruble continues to rise against the dollar, making it the best-performing currency in the world this year.

Three months after the ruble's value fell to less than a U.S. penny amid the toughest economic sanctions imposed on a country in modern history, Russia's currency has mounted a stunning turnaround. The ruble has jumped 40% against the dollar since January.

"It's an unusual situation," said Jeffrey Frankel, professor of capital formation and growth at the Harvard Kennedy School.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-...-economy-2022/

[MCMLXXXII]

Sigh, okay.

Sanctions didn't insta-kill Castro or the Kim family. In the long term however, it hurts like hell.
If a currency takes a nosedive and a government does everything to protect it in a short term matter, ofcourse it would grow from rock bottom.
From that article:

A strong currency doesn't mean Russia is immune to economic pain, however. Although the ruble's bounceback and the strength of Russia's oil exports have temporarily cushioned its economy from sanctions, the effect is likely to be short-term, experts say.

Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James, noted that Russian oil is selling for $35 per barrel less than Brent crude, the international benchmark, reflecting the discount buyers demand for doing business with the nation.

"Nobody today would buy Russian oil at $120 a barrel. And in fact there are plenty of energy buyers who will not buy Russian oil at any price today, whether because of sanctions or because of reputational risk," he said. "The Russian economy is losing approximately $200 million dollars a day — or $70 billion on an annual basis — as a direct result of the war."

[YUPPIE]

"long term" isn't a saving grace when Putin is trying to end this vicious genocide in short-term, 2022 estimate

can't afford to wait

[Crispin]

Except so far Russia rakes cash and even overtaken Saudis as top Chinese supplier.

Promote "green agenda" by restarting coal power plants? West is destroying it as we speak.

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If you're stuck on that point then because Russia (and Donbass) sees 2014 as illegal Western-inspired coup.

And because sovereignty has practical limits (see Cuban Missile Crisis).

Plenty of countries invaded this century didn't invade anyone themselves.

Ofcourse you’re selling oil at a 30% discount lol.

Coal is a short term fix for a faster transition.

And it’s obvious to completely dismiss Russian “media” they cant even call it what it is, a war.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

And as much as this forum makes fun of YUPPIE, Russian leadership is YUPPIE but on drugs.

Well, we also make fun of russian leadership.

[YUPPIE]

Agreeing with numerous ultra-conservatives that have echoed the sentiment: Russia and China have long loomed as a threat to world security and peace because the West let it fester so. They failed to see the threat Stalin and China would pose at that tim and let them be after WW2 instead of deposing their governments and annexing them into Western democracies.

The result is a modern Hitler (Putin) and Axis alliance armed with nuclear weapons. Force is no longer an option without MAD, unlike with the response to Pearl Harbor. So that is why all we are reduced to is watching and making feeble, ineffective efforts at diplomacy and fearing for the uncertain future.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

"long term" isn't a saving grace when Putin is trying to end this vicious genocide in short-term, 2022 estimate

can't afford to wait

So, what? You think the West should assassinate Putin? You think that improves anything for Ukraine or anywhere else?

[YUPPIE]

So, what? You think the West should assassinate Putin? You think that improves anything for Ukraine or anywhere else?

read the post above you. We can't really do shit anymore. That time/opportunity has long passed.

While Putin dying would be satisfying, he is part of the endemic plague that is the Russian government. When he dies, there will be Lavrov in office and the nuclear codes are passed on.

So not much optimism for a positive outcome at all, diplomatically or violently.